The largest Russian gold miner (POLYUS GOLD),has been admited recently in the FTSE Gold Mine index and is planing to list in London.

Any thought on his company?

The permit seems close. I am looking fwd to the bidding war. One step at a time i guess.

With the potential of 18M ounces my guestimate NAV is now $13-16 range and than adding a buyout premium to that.

I am skeptical because its almost too good to be true. It feels like 1998 all over again. I own shares outright and decided against call options since the pps has been so low and more attractive to me without the time risk component.

Any advice from this community for exit strategy?

NYU - No way to know if permit is really close, although today's price rise and block trades suggest SOMETHING is up. Until today, my exit strategy was a stop at 2.59(rough low for the past 4 months) risking 10% on my position.

Because if there SHOULD be another year's delay (always possible in VZ) the share price would probably drop back to 1.15.

Having gotten out, one could then buy back in when/if things started moving up again ...

For those interested, here are the block trades for GRZ.

Time Tick Last Price Last Size Last Exch Bid Price Bid Size Bid Exch Ask Price Ask Size Ask Exch
15:51:52 5.05 3000 P 5.04 2 P 5.05 59 P
15:47:35 Up 5.05 3600 P 5.03 4 P 5.05 25 P
15:26:15 Up 5.037 5000 P 5.01 1 P 5.04 12 P
15:10:26 5 3500 A 4.99 53 A 5 41 A
14:20:29 5 3000 P 5 1 P 5 77 P
13:41:37 5 6300 P 5.01 1 P 5.05 35 P
13:39:34 Up 5 5100 P 4.99 12 P 5 88 P
12:51:12 Up 4.9 3300 P 4.87 1 P 4.89 1 P
12:29:17 4.86 4500 TH 4.86 9 TH 4.86 1 TH
12:29:16 Up 4.86 4700 TH 4.86 9 TH 4.86 1 TH
12:25:55 Up 4.85 3100 P 4.82 16 P 4.85 4 P
11:53:53 Up 4.8 9200 P 4.81 1 P 4.84 2 P
11:52:24 4.76 4500 MW 4.76 50 MW 4.77 2 MW
11:52:21 Up 4.76 4500 MW 4.76 50 MW 4.77 2 MW
10:34:30 Up 4.63 3200 A 4.63 28 A 4.63 32 A
09:30:34 4.35 5000 P 4.28 17 P 4.66 2 P
09:30:30 4.35 3500 P 4.16 17 P 4.68 2 P

As you can see, much less activity then KRY and the largest block is 9200.

Sorry, if the list doesn't show in the correct tabular form.

NYUGrad:
Beware awaiting a "pending permit" to time an upleg. I was toiling on the feasibility study awaiting permits with the previous owner (PDG) in 1997...This project is not a spring chicken and Chavez is no Colonel Sanders...

Seems to me GRZ has two disadvantages vrs. KRY:

- At least from the info in google/reuters, the GRZ management didn't seem as distinguished as KRY's;

- GRZ is American rather than Canadian company, and if Chavez wants to poke someone in the eye, it's probably going to be GRZ.

Does anyone know if GRZ's claim is as complicated as KRY's? There's even a VZ group still maintaining their (ancient) claim to las Cristinas. Although, I don't think they have the credibility (i.e. $$$) that KRY has.

Did anyone see the news that Goldcorp is selling 18mm shares of SLW?

For those interested, KRY block trades for today were 92 with block trade volume of 1,550,500. The trades were as follows:

Time Tick Last Price Last Size Last Exch Bid Price Bid Size Bid Exch Ask Price Ask Size Ask Exch Trade Cond
15:57:37 Dn 3.1800 10000 A 3.1800 30 TH 3.1900 2 P
15:56:00 3.2000 10000 DF 3.2000 3 A 3.2000 30 TH
15:55:51 Up 3.2300 12000 DF 3.2200 1 A 3.2000 4 P
15:54:37 3.2400 10000 DF 3.2300 71 A 3.2400 230 TH
15:50:46 Up 3.2200 10000 A 3.2100 52 P 3.2200 51 P
15:32:47 Up 3.2500 10000 DF 3.2400 100 TH 3.2500 102 P
15:15:31 Up 3.2000 11600 A 3.1900 114 A 3.2000 132 A
15:11:56 3.2100 17400 DF 3.2100 196 TH 3.2200 315 TH
14:57:20 3.2800 10000 DF 3.2700 237 P 3.2800 119 TH
14:51:21 Dn 3.2800 35000 DF 3.2800 274 A 3.2900 110 TH
14:34:38 3.3000 22900 P 3.2900 73 P 3.3000 49 P
14:07:48 Up 3.3200 15000 DF 3.3100 228 P 3.3200 206 A
14:04:40 3.3200 10000 A 3.3100 101 A 3.3200 21 P
14:00:30 3.3200 11300 P 3.3100 93 A 3.3200 126 P
14:00:23 3.3200 11700 DF 3.3100 100 A 3.3200 112 P
13:58:45 Up 3.3300 10000 DF 3.3200 11 P 3.3300 25 P
13:57:15 Dn 3.3000 100000 DF 3.3200 19 P 3.3300 14 P
13:56:52 3.3100 50000 A 3.3000 102 A 3.3100 103 P
13:56:06 3.3100 35000 A 3.3000 100 A 3.3100 110 P
13:55:29 Dn 3.3000 13800 A 3.3100 2 TH 3.3200 48 P
13:55:03 Up 3.3200 20000 A 3.3000 26 TH 3.3100 95 TH
13:53:54 Dn 3.3000 14700 A 3.3100 10 P 3.3200 28 P
13:52:49 Up 3.3300 15000 A 3.3200 44 A 3.3300 30 P
13:52:38 3.3300 10000 A 3.3300 1 A 3.3400 126 P
13:51:45 3.3300 25000 A 3.3300 6 TH 3.3400 22 A
13:51:22 Dn 3.3300 15000 A 3.3300 24 TH 3.3400 30 TH
13:49:41 Dn 3.3300 10000 A 3.3300 35 TH 3.3400 10 A
13:42:46 Up 3.3100 10300 A 3.3000 100 A 3.3100 22 P
13:27:22 3.2800 14300 DF 3.2800 256 TH 3.2900 44 P
13:23:02 3.3200 11300 P 3.3200 16 P 3.3300 14 P
13:12:04 3.3000 19000 MW 3.3000 50 P 3.3000 5 MW
13:05:40 Up 3.2900 10000 A 3.2800 205 TH 3.2900 80 TH
13:00:41 Up 3.3100 20000 DF 3.3000 61 P 3.3100 208 TH
12:48:46 Up 3.3400 13000 A 3.3200 19 P 3.3300 13 P
12:48:26 3.3000 28700 A 3.2900 46 TH 3.3000 51 TH
12:48:24 3.3000 20200 A 3.2900 46 TH 3.3000 489 A
12:47:16 3.2900 10100 DF 3.2800 70 P 3.2900 20 TH
12:44:41 Dn 3.2600 10000 DF 3.2600 170 P 3.2700 1 A
12:37:38 3.2800 10000 DF 3.2800 30 TH 3.2900 106 P
12:36:57 3.2800 10000 DF 3.2700 26 P 3.2800 47 P
12:33:18 Dn 3.2500 15000 MW 3.2600 35 A 3.2700 30 TH
12:27:48 Up 3.3500 12700 A 3.3400 154 P 3.3500 132 A
12:27:32 Up 3.3100 10100 A 3.3000 18 TH 3.3100 31 P
12:26:22 Dn 3.3700 22600 A 3.4000 31 P 3.4200 21 TH
12:26:01 3.4400 14600 DF 3.4400 8 A 3.4500 36 P
12:25:45 Dn 3.4700 10000 DF 3.4700 16 A 3.4800 43 P
12:22:16 Dn 3.4000 11500 DF 3.4100 7 P 3.4200 10 A
12:18:29 Up 3.3200 11100 DF 3.3100 311 P 3.3200 170 P
12:18:07 Dn 3.3100 10000 A 3.3200 18 TH 3.3200 54 P
12:17:24 3.3100 10000 DF 3.3100 292 P 3.3200 96 TH
12:17:23 Dn 3.3100 10000 A 3.3100 292 P 3.3200 96 TH
12:16:36 Up 3.3100 10000 DF 3.3000 93 P 3.3000 5 MW
12:13:28 3.2700 24800 DF 3.2600 120 P 3.2700 156 P
12:12:49 Up 3.2700 10000 P 3.2600 121 P 3.2700 52 TH
12:12:41 3.2700 10000 A 3.2600 54 P 3.2700 109 P
12:12:24 Dn 3.2600 10100 A 3.2600 27 TH 3.2700 109 A
12:12:19 Up 3.2700 13800 DF 3.2600 31 P 3.2700 109 A
12:10:56 Up 3.2800 15000 A 3.2700 20 TH 3.2800 141 P
12:10:52 Up 3.2800 15000 A 3.2700 20 TH 3.2800 139 P
12:10:31 Up 3.2800 15500 A 3.2700 55 TH 3.2800 168 A
12:10:12 Up 3.2800 10200 A 3.2600 100 A 3.2700 56 TH
12:09:56 Dn 3.2700 10000 DF 3.2700 5 P 3.2800 65 P
12:07:53 3.2400 35100 A 3.2300 4 P 3.2400 351 A
12:07:50 Up 3.2400 30000 A 3.2300 4 P 3.2400 651 A
12:07:01 3.2100 10000 MW 3.2100 108 TH 3.2200 77 TH
11:54:15 Dn 3.1300 10000 DF 3.1300 142 P 3.1400 47 MW
11:46:46 3.1600 11700 DF 3.1600 1 A 3.1700 39 TH
11:46:41 3.1600 13400 DF 3.1600 36 TH 3.1700 35 TH
11:43:56 3.1500 26600 A 3.1500 23 P 3.1500 2 MW
11:43:38 Dn 3.1200 62500 A 3.1400 230 TH 3.1500 35 TH
11:43:05 3.1400 17500 A 3.1300 26 P 3.1400 11 A
11:41:19 3.1100 10000 A 3.1100 28 P 3.1200 6 TH
11:34:13 3.0600 25000 A 3.0500 35 A 3.0600 411 A
11:33:47 3.0600 20000 DF 3.0500 37 A 3.0600 411 A
11:32:34 Up 3.0600 12000 DF 3.0500 20 MW 3.0600 3 A
11:23:13 Up 3.1000 11600 A 3.0700 25 TH 3.0800 1 P
11:20:46 3.1000 11800 MW 3.0900 80 P 3.1000 162 MW
11:20:18 3.1000 10100 A 3.0900 80 P 3.1000 330 MW
11:20:15 Up 3.1000 14900 DF 3.0900 80 P 3.1000 330 MW
11:19:48 3.1000 13500 DF 3.0900 75 P 3.1000 330 MW
11:14:14 3.0000 10000 DF 2.9900 300 TH 3.0000 35 TH
11:14:01 2.9900 10700 DF 2.9800 177 P 2.9900 12 P
11:14:00 2.9900 23300 DF 2.9800 177 P 2.9900 233 TH
11:13:24 2.9800 30000 DF 2.9700 143 P 2.9800 316 TH
11:10:16 2.9600 18000 P 2.9500 146 P 2.9600 139 TH
10:34:21 2.9500 19600 P 2.9400 86 P 2.9500 85 TH
10:22:58 2.9400 10000 DF 2.9400 139 P 2.9500 13 P
10:01:31 2.9400 10000 DF 2.9300 35 TH 2.9400 29 P
09:42:48 Up 2.9600 10000 DF 2.9500 30 P 2.9600 100 MW
09:37:47 2.9300 16100 A 2.9200 15 P 2.9300 253 A
09:30:25 Up 2.9100 35400 A 2.8700 24 P 2.9300 58 P

I was under the impression Chavez and the govt will most likely own 51% of the profits via taxes in VZ. Not sure I am a fan of KRY for this reason. But a buyout by GG does make it more interesting...

Musings

Perhaps GG is interested in GRZ as well as KRY.

Or, their target is GRZ. (But why buy one without the other?)

Jock makes a good point about a stop. With country risk, elections on Dec 3rd, who knows.

No position in GRZ, but long KRY for months now and patient.

Dec. 3 in VZ. Just imagine if there's no clear winner! LOL (Don't worry about that!)

I DID worry about KRY's weakness today, I hopped off, planning to hop back on at the bottom of the previous trading range -- unless, of course, KRY lights up again before getting there.

Curious how GRZ was moving up, while KRY was steadily moving down. The fact GRZ has less than 1/10 the volume of KRY made me think it might be easier to prop up GRZ!

Chavez is running out of money and needs to do something.

But if he pushes the permits through and puts on a 51% tax, forget it.

The TSX is full of inside info. This could be a whisper rally or a fake out. The biggest volume is on first few red candels -- someone knew there was nothing to know.