Download UBS Nov 14 report on Qualcomm.

UBS opines:

"We believe management offered convincing views on 1) the increasing ramp of WCDMA (and CDMA, albeit likely peaking), 2) the uncertainties and challenges around WiMAX (relating to royalties and subscriber ramp), 3) its position in the intellectual property debate, 4) its technology investments in an ecosystem (like BREW, which we believe gives QCOM a competitive chipset advantage), and, indirectly, 5) its opportunity to gain chipset market share.

So why buy Qualcomm today? We use RIMM as an example of just how quickly sentiment from companies and investors can change - a year ago, investors were wary of the RIMM story because of the litigation overhang and many investors felt there was time as commentary from RIMM management led many to believe it was time to dig in for a protracted legal battle. Indeed, from this point last year, there was time, but not as much as many expected as various pressures (customers' FEARS of injunction started to impact RIM's business) resulted in a settlement on March 3, 2006, which consequently resulted in a RIMM relief rally. We note that this was in spite of fears that the wireless email market might be saturated - a situation that is clearly not in question in the Qualcomm story. Since then, RIMM shares have seen significant appreciation which we see as due to fundamentals.

So while pressures (or lack thereof) are not likely to result in an agreement between QCOM and NOK this calendar year (though not impossible), we believe the window of opportunity may ultimately start to close. Thus, we view pockets of weakness caused by litigation/renegotiation concerns as opportunities and view QCOM as attractive for investors with 1) conviction that the litigation/renegotiation overhang will ultimately disappear, 2) conviction that the WCDMA market will ramp (the fundamentals), and 3) a longer-term view with the patience to absorb near-term volatility (perhaps the most important as potential for volatility from newsflow is likely to test conviction).

Which leads us back to our first point that management offered convincing views on the fundamentals of the business with opportunity for chipset share gains (signing Motorola as a customer), potential chipset advantage due to ecosystem investments (we believe BREW may "just work better" with Qualcomm chipsets - TIM just signed and we believe Sprint is also likely to adopt BREW), and arguments supporting its royalty rates (which Nokia will have the opportunity to counter at its Capital Markets Day on Nov. 28-29)."

As you know, Research In Motion (RIMM) is another Cara 100 company. I continue to expound the hypothesis that if traders stick to the best quality companies and buy the shares when prices in the industry are depressed, then exceptional portfolio performance is likely.

Qualcomm Inc [GICS 45, Cara 100]

(QCOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(QCOM: StockChart chart)
(QCOM: Investertech chart)
(QCOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(QCOM: ADVFN Financial Data)

As I see it, there was a good time to buy QCOM back in July when the RSI-7 on the Monthly-Weekly-Daily were down at 30 and the tech group was ready to rally. But you know that already. (lol)

Yes, I gave you the whole list of 20 on Friday 21st of July and in the WIR that weekend, which I even followed up on the 24th to see if you had gotten long.

No positions now... hahaha