ALOHA !!

Yes, agreed at some point inflationary pressures take a bite out of spending and it won't be long until the tax man comes knocking ...

Also at some point the record "bankruptcy rates" and "mortgage defaults" kick in and there is no "free reload" with the new bankruptcy laws on the books so I am sure that makes for more caution when it comes to the unbridled spending habits of the past.

Way back in 1991 I attended a US Bankruptcy Court session(Sacramento, CA)where I was trying to collect off of a deadbeat ex-so-called-friend ... I sat there listening to case after case go before the judge and sometimes creditors were present but most of the time(90%) no creditors attended at all. In fact myself and a credit rep from Sears and JC Penny's were the only three creditors in the packed standing room only courtroom of about 150 people. Most of the debtors there were truly pathetic, filing Chapter 7 on $20k of debt or less ... essentially run the credit cards up and file "BK" when the heat starts. Only one guy I felt deserved bankruptcy protection, an old guy who had to sell his house to pay his wife's medical bills. So much for working hard and saving your whole life ...

After court was over I spoke with the judge in the hallway and he agreed bankruptcy laws were too easy and there were a lot of deadbeats. I did not get any relief at all since I could not prove that the debtor could repay the $150k owed, of which, I was owed $35k. At the hearing I also represented The Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco, CA. This debtor "friend" had run up a $25k wedding bill at the hotel and then did not pay knowing "BK" was two weeks later! Afterwards I filed criminal charges but met with the Fairmont Hotel General Manager and the hotel's policy was not to file criminal charges and instead "write-off" the debt, so without their backing my criminal complaint fell on deft ears ...

If you want to understand "debt" beyond the mere statistical numbers then go attend a US Bankruptcy Court session and you would see the tremendous amount of time and money this country allocates to debt and debt service.

I've had half a mind lately to try shorting some US discretionary retail stocks (eg. Harley Davidson), but I'm not sure the time is ripe.

A tangental question:
I know Bill is an admirer of David Rosenberg mentioned in the post, and I recall Bill recently named him in another post , along with other worthy mkt. commentators , including Larry Berman (who also is a Rosenberg fan).

...Which leads to my qu.:
Berman has left CIBC and is just starting a new hedge fund of his own. His new co. is called "ETF Capital Management". This was mentioned in his ROBTV appearance this A.M.

I've been trying to locate a web site for Larry's new venture via Google - unsuccessfully.

Do you Bill, or does anyone else happen to know a URL for Berman's new co.?

Thanks.

Thanks Bill for the update on Berman. I imagine there will be a fair amount of interest in his fund, because he's built up a following, not only with CIBC clients, but with ROBTV viewers too.

Apparently, it was an avalanche of e-mail feedback to ROBTV from concerned viewers, that got the weekly "Berman's Call" reinstated, after ROBTV had initially cancelled it. I wrote in to complain, encouraging them to please increase their technical analysis segments, if anything, and not decrease them. Thank goodness they listen to viewers!

Bob
I don't have an opinion on Harley as a short as I don't follow it, but I have noticed some recent inside selling. Go to: www.secform4.com and type in the symbol.
Management may be agreeing with you.