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November 14, 2006
Implications of Russia's entry into WTO, Tues., Nov. 14, 2006, 9:44 AM
This Saturday at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Conference) in Ha Noi Vietnam, Russia will be accorded membership in the World Trade Organization.
There are positive implications for the Russian economy and for the Ruble vs the $USD. I am thinking we may see foreign banks flood the market there so they can finance the new Lada cars abroad. Isn't it amazing how what goes around seems to keep going around.
And today, the Detroit Big Three are in the President's office to ask that he keep those cars out of America. (lol)
But according to a story Nov 10 in Bloomberg, American business has now come on side after some 13 years of negotiations:
"Business groups expressed support for the agreement today. Russia "is simply too big to leave it outside'' the WTO, said Frank Vargo, vice president of the National Association of Manufacturers. The agreement, which calls for Russia to lower its industrial tariff to an average of 8 percent, meets the major demands of the manufacturing group, he said. Large banks, insurance companies and other service companies had been skeptical of the Russian talks, because the Putin administration had insisted on a cap in foreign investment. The announcement today got their support ``on balance,'' said Michael Drucker, chairman of the Coalition of Service Industries. "We believe that this agreement in principle is much better than the positions that Russia started with on insurance branching,'' said David Snyder, vice president of the American Insurance Association. "Years of difficult negotiations have produced much progress.''
In any event, the Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) has been doing quite well. In early May, the TRF took a nose-dive along with all equity markets after the Fed meeting. But to fall from $96.50 to $48.30 was extremely over-done. I found it unbelievable at the time that U.S. Talking Heads would jump so hard on the Russia situation. Sure there were assassinations of note, but to cut by 50 pct the total value of listed equities in 30 days was simply too much.

Now you see that with WTO membership, a similar equity market reaction to what happened with China will also occur. Hence, I intend to spend more time writing up Russian stock situations.
As you know I have a couple telco operators in the Cara 100, Vimpel-Communications (VIP) and Mobile TeleSystems (MBT). A week ago, TheStreet.com did a nice video in support of this Russian sector.
Mobile TeleSystems (ADR) [GICS 50, Cara 100](MBT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MBT: StockChart chart)
(MBT: Investertech chart)
(MBT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MBT: ADVFN Financial Data)
Vimpel-Communications (ADR) [GICS 50, Cara 100]
(VIP: Yahoo Finance file)
(VIP: StockChart chart)
(VIP: Investertech chart)
(VIP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VIP: ADVFN Financial Data)
These stocks hit a Daily RSI-7 extremely low value of 10 in June, and have since made exceptional gains.

No position today.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 14, 2006 09:44:01 AM | Category: 50 Telecom Services , Cara Global 100 Best Companies , Russia
Discourse
Bill,
When TRF was $90, it had close to 40% premium. The underlying stock prices did not drop so much. It was the premium dropped significantly(maybe some speculators drove it to an unsustainable level?). If you check the premium here: http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/global.asp?MFID=19666 , you can see the premium has fluctuated wildly.
Posted by: yc32
at
November 14, 2006 5:47 PM [link]
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ALOHA !!
I know about the YUKOS debacle ... is YUKOS still a viable company or are they forever tainted by the Russian government's mistrust? YUKOS shares have plummeted but seem to have hit a prolonged bottom(US ADR: YUKOY). I have no position due to political instability, but will the WTO membership change that in any way for YUKOS?
Russia is such a resource rich country, so more political stability and acceptance in the WTO can't be a bad effect on the Ruble. I am of the opinion that this is all part of Putin's master plan to make the Ruble more stable and acceptable as a strong currency so that he can take the US dollar down ... Russians and Chinese all have very long term plans ... sadly the US planning is as long as a Presidential term ...
Putin ... see you in Georgia ... the former Iron Curtain is rising again!
Posted by: kaimu
at
November 14, 2006 11:01 AM [link]