This was in rebuttal of my earlier remark: ""Despite some weird trading action during today, gold prices are likely to rise by $200 over the next four years. That's the forecast of firms like UBS, Credit Suisse, BMO and others, and it also just happens to be what the forward market is priced at."

Download Nov 10 UBS Gold Weekly.

Anyway, despite lowering their outlook for the gold price, UBS continues to like Goldcorp/Glamis, and they look for incremental growth potential for (Cara 100) Silver Wheaton (SLW) about which they say of the latter:

"Among the silver producers, we continue to recommend Silver Wheaton as we believe the company is poised for growth, with a potentially company transforming contract for the silver from Goldcorp's Penasquito project. With 100% of revenues from silver, Silver Wheaton offers the best leverage in the group. We also recommend Pan American over the longer term given its strong organic growth profile and exposure to zinc (~30% of revenues in 2006), which should help maintain its status as the lowest cost producer in the group. However, near term Pan American could face some headline risk from labour unrest in Peru, although we note workers at only one of the company's Peruvian assets are unionized. Also of note, Silver Standard could benefit from additional positive exploration results at its San Luis, and Snowfield projects, expected to be released in the next few weeks."

Later today, I will return Goldcorp to the Cara 100 and update my records. The company is not a hedger like Barrick, which (despite all the gratuitous publicity about de-hedging) was still hedged 12 million ounces of gold at June 30. Goldcorp has succeeded in its fight over the legal right to take-over Glamis (GLG) with no vote permitted to its own shareholders. So be it; the company (both Goldcorp and Glamis components) is worthy of Cara 100 status and I'll now eat my discomfort over what a senior partner of a major Toronto law firm said to me was "a travesty for shareholder rights. Hopefully the price moves much higher, so that when it makes a likely bid for Crystallex, the share price won't fall too far.

Silver Wheaton Corp [GICS 15, Cara 100]

(SLW: Yahoo Finance file)
(SLW: StockChart chart)
(SLW: Investertech chart)
(SLW: ADVFN Financial Data)
(SLW.TO: Yahoo Finance file)
(SLW.TO: StockChart chart)
(SLW.TO: Investertech chart)
(SLW.TO: ADVFN Financial Data)
Silver Wheaton Corp website
Silver Wheaton Corp - DGF2006

Goldcorp Inc [GICS 15, return to Cara 100 replacing Barrick]

(GG: Yahoo Finance file)
(GG: StockChart chart)
(GG: Investertech chart)
(GG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GG: ADVFN Financial Data)

No positions this morning