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November 2, 2006

Community Chat, Thurs., Nov. 2, 2006, 8:16 AM

This space is intended for students-of-the-market who wish to pursue any topic of interest where market knowledge and experience can be shared. Yesterday, I spent the entire day at the McEwen-Goldcorp appeal hearing. SEE ADDENDUM

Today I am going to spend most of my time in meetings to prepare for Bahamas and time on the book manuscript. Thank goodness because I was having computer problems publishing this article; it took well over 30 minutes after I had it written.

You know, I am very pleased to have spent so many hours in the past two or three weeks writing up so many gold and silver producers. Because of my crystal ball, I could "see" the break-out in precious metals prices coming and wanted to prepare readers for that event. :-)

I have also decided (as you know) to write fewer articles in this blog until I receive the results of my latest biopsy, which is more than a distraction; it's a creativity killer. I need to write in a free association thinking mode, but health issues now dominate my thinking.

Regarding uranium; I met Mr Platinum last evening and he thinks the price will hit $100. As you know, he is one of the people on the Street who I listen closely to.

He says off the record, which is what I also hear from some other key people in the mining industry, that the Sprott firm has significant influence over this market.

For the record, I think highly of the work of Sprott Asset Management, and I am bullish on uranium stocks generally. In fact, in a recent blog, I listed a half dozen good ones, and have a list of a dozen more I watch from a distance.

But I am also concerned a bubble might be forming here.

My point yesterday is that almost all traders think uranium is a free market like Gold and Silver, etc. It isn't. It is I believe (and will continue to do so unless informed by more knowledgeable people than those who brought me to this conclusion) affected to a significant degree by a player who has (or had) a vested interest in owning a significant piece of many of these small mining companies, while actively promoting them, trading them and also acting as a manager of OPM.

I have watched similar conflicts of interest not end well. It goes right to the heart of the conflict issue of what is a broker-dealer. Is it your agent or is it a vested-interest principal?

The Sprott firm obviously disagrees with my position, and so in the interests of fairness, I invited them to lay out their case in a subsequent blog. I'm not trying to be hurtful, but I am trying to get to the truth. As you know, conflicts in the securities industry are issues that interest me.

In any event, they declined, but threatened legal action to force me to remove what they call misrepresentations of fact. To avoid a lawsuit, which neither they or I would be helped by, I am going to remove and/or edit statements where I think it's the right thing to do.

One matter you may not hear much about is that there are hundreds of penny stock paper pushers in Vancouver who know the stock promotion business " at a certain level in any event " and to a great many of them, this is a paper game with a major mission, which is to separate you from your money. If their company happens to actually become a miner, that's probably a 1 or 2 in a thousand shot. Think about it: hundreds of players; 1 or 2 in 1000.

So, be careful with uranium. That was a point raised by mining people themselves last evening in a round-table discussion I had.

A final point on this uranium matter is that all over the world there are people exploring for material on the legitimate basis of perceived demand in the future as government tries to find alternatives to oil-based energy needs. But, have you thought about the implications?

As the research shows, Uranium is naturally radioactive, and is a carcinogen. It must be handled with greater care than say gold.

I have zero interest in getting into a personal discussion of this, and I know that those of you who are bullish on uranium are going to be 100-pct dismissive, whether the basis is information or emotion. But, a win-win would be for independent and objective experts to discuss this here.

Please; independent and objective experts only. If you are heavily invested, we know what the rest of you think.

With respect to the Canadian Minister of Finance decision to introduce materially changing legislation that would tax Canadian-based income trusts, Although I am taking an unpopular position, I reiterate my support for the tax ruling, and I remind you that the hue and cry is going to come from broker-dealers who were behind this tax avoidance scheme in the first place, and whose clients are now understandably very upset.

There is a fundamental difference between my intention to move to Bahamas where there is no income tax and these income trusts, which are plans contrived by vested interests to avoid tax for Canadian domiciled individuals and corporations.

Countries that are or were once in the British Commonwealth of Nations typically have the same income tax system, which is different from the American system. Americans are taxed on the basis of birth and citizenship, whereas the British based system taxes income on the basis of domicile.

So by my changing domicile, I subject myself to a different type of fiscal system. Let nobody misunderstand: Bahamas and jurisdictions that have no income tax act are probably prudently managed from a fiscal perspective. I know Bahamas is. Revenues of government are merely raised in different ways than income tax.

The problem is where individuals and corporations and their technical advisors, who choose to be domiciled in high tax jurisdictions like Canada also choose to try to beat their national tax system by deceitful means or by tax avoidance schemes like income trusts. Behind every one of these loophole seeking schemes, you will find a public relations campaign that sells the notion to the very people who are disadvantaged that the scheme is to their advantage. That is patent nonsense, and just because you hear a bank or broker-dealer tout the party line doesn't mean it's the fundamental reason for the scheme's existence.

When it comes to money, those who have it in relatively large amounts pay relatively small amounts to legal, accounting and financial technicians and the mass media to push their storyline. Yesterday, Canada's Minister of Finance finally said: "Enough is enough! Here are the facts!"

The widening gap between perception and reality is the biggest concern the average person ought to have; unfortunately, ignorance is bliss. Ignorance, however, is not going to protect your wealth. So, I'm going to talk about these issues (income trusts, uranium, etc) in order to facilitate discussion between people who are informed and interested in sharing and extending their knowledge.

To those of you who think I'm selling something, let me say you are wrong. If you don't like my presence in the blogosphere, find another blog that satisfies you. Trust me, you will not be missed.

Btw, the Crystallex permit that was received this week is precisely what the company stated in the press release: "The environmental permission required for the drilling was received from the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources ("MARN") in Venezuela on October 26th, 2006." This is not the environmental permit to mine the Las Cristinas property, but only to further drill out its reserves.

The drilling permit, however, is another positive sign that MARN will soon issue the permission to start mining.

Crystallex needs to develop larger reserves asap in order to get maximum value for shareholders when the takeover bid is received from Goldcorp following the requisite MARN permit. Yes, I have reached a point where I believe (99.99 pct sure) that it was Goldcorp that took down the private placement share offering in KRY early this year. These documents are private, but lawyers or the staff who prepare such legal documents almost always talk, and the word has been getting around Toronto's financial district for months.

This week, Crystallex held a special meeting of shareholders to approve a resolution that would give the company additional rights under the rules and regs related to receiving take-over offers. Clearly the company could not wait until next year's AGM because they have reason to believe the proposal is coming, and Im saying it's going to come from Goldcorp.

Crystallex merely want the opportunity to shop the deal, which will help the current shareholders. Goldcorp could effectively use their private placement shares (when registered) to short the KRY in order to keep the share price as low as possible.

So, with the final permit in hand (whenever it comes), the KRY shares will pop. I hope they triple, and then I hope that Goldcorp is forced to put their publicly stated +35-pct bid premium (they say is needed) on the proposed take-out price. That would be ironic, to say the least.

In any case, I have been around long enough to know that the true value of KRY shares based on a Price to Net Asset Value basis will be north of US$10 after the final permit is received and perhaps $12-$13 before the shares are exchanged for Goldcorp.

So the best play here is to short GG/G.TO against KRY/KRY.TO.

On the issue of permitting; traders do not generally recognize the seriousness of this situation. Mining companies today have extreme difficulty in getting environmental permits. I don't think there will ever be another mine involving cyanide in almost all the States of the U.S.

Typically, it takes a company three years or more to get the requisite permits. So in the case of Crystallex, this delay is not unusual.

Regarding further purchases of Canadian income trusts, after the current shake-out, I'd think the market will adjust to a basis of discounted after-tax cash flow, and then will be attractive again to income-oriented accounts where the quality and safety is apparent.

Regarding the current housing industry crisis, I think the U.S. housing industry problem will become as bad as 1990 or worse. Anecdotes can often provide a sign of things to come. Last evening I met with a "name" many readers know -- he lives in a distant country outside North America (but I have known him for years), and he said his next door neighbor recently listed his house for US$17 million, but that the listing agent, who is his close friend, told him the owner's instructions are to take any offer down to $10 million.

Another fellow who had joined us, is a permanent resident in the south of France, and does most of his business in Monaco. He said (I'll paraphrase): "I see a lot of properties that are listed at 10 million Euro, that will likely not sell until maybe 2 million €. People who, in previous cycles, never had debt, now appear to be loaded up."

Does this say something about the precarious state of the real estate market -- not just in the U.S., but everywhere? I also chatted up a well known promoter who claimed that collecting on private placement subscriptions was almost impossible. He said: "I can't seem to squeeze $35,000 out of investors who already signed the documents. These are people who normally write me $100,000. Now they are telling me they have a monthly nut to look at."

I think that the financial problem of people today is much worse than people are admitting, and at this point I'm starting to think of recession -- something like 1990 or possibly even worse.

Darth Vader David Rosenberg, who is head North American economist for Merrill Lynch was interviewed yesterday on Morning Call at ROBTV. Although he hadn't yet issued a "hard landing" research paper, the writing was on the wall. I haven't checked, but the interview may be available on the ROBTV video Replay. I'll try to get more of his work to upload here for you because I now think David is tops in his field.

Finally, yesterday Rob McEwen issued a press release: "Founders of McEwen Centre for Regenerative Medicine to Receive Tiffany Mark Award.

Andrea Hopson, VP of Tiffany & Co, will present the award to Rob and Cheryl at a private cocktail celebration at the Tiffany's Toronto Bloor street store on Monday, November 6. My wife and I will be in attendance.

"The Tiffany Mark Award is about professional achievement and hands-on support of a charitable organization."

The Ontario Court yesterday heard the arguments presented by all the parties in McEwen's request for a shareholder vote on the Goldcorp-Glamis deal. Although highly procedural (read boring, at times), this was excellent law, and the three-judge decision will be a good one. That decision will be released on Monday after the market close, right before the Tiffany Mark Award presentation.

I said to Rob that I hope it becomes a celebration party.

During the day, I was invited to lunch in the wonderful Great Hall at Osgoode Hall with Rob McEwen's four lawyers, and two staff. Preciousss.

It's a beautiful clear day in Toronto today. I'm going to take the time to enjoy it.

Have a good day.

ADDENDUM

There was a mistake in calculating per share figures in my original article on Silver Wheaton (SLW). I made the correction soon after publishing it, but I gather my work is being picked up by other publishing sources, and readers have sent me a stream of "excuse me, but..." letters. Sorry. But doesn't this prove something? I do my own research and analysis, and the opinions I give are mine. I'm human and, besides, I have only so much time to produce so much output, and I know that sometimes I produce errors. Often, I never re-read a single word before publishing, and often I'll correct things, where I see there is a mistake -- mostly in spelling and grammar but occasionally in content.

Readers know this is a free blog, and that I make no warranty or guarantee of any kind. I won't even play the disclosures game because this is a non-commercial site. For my readers, I commit to being independent, objective and as accurate as time and circumstances permit, and so if anybody wants more assurances from my blog than that, please don't hesitate to go elsewhere. I am what I am. That happens to be -- like it or not -- one of the few people you read who isn't a shill for vested interests.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 2, 2006 08:16:44 AM | Category: Community Chat

Discourse

On trading gold, an important piece from John Hussman, that I like to point out every so often:

http://www.hussman.net/html/gold.htm

Good trading all.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 9:38 AM [link]

Thanks MarkM. This is a great article.

And thanks Bill for this write up. It was a nice read this am. Hope your health stays on the positive!

Posted by: SoccerMatt [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 9:44 AM [link]

Gold up almost $30 in the last 3 days. Can anyone explain why gold miners are not rallying?

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 9:58 AM [link]

JogyP - I have found the miners lead the bullion. The miners have already had a fantastic run the past two+ weeks. The need a break I think... but then the will go up again.. (i believe)

Posted by: SoccerMatt [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 10:07 AM [link]

Thank you for your detailed commentary, Bill. It was great and very helpful.

MarkM, I just read the Hussman piece. It was a wonderful follow-up to reading Bill's commentary in this space. Thank you for taking the time to post it for us.

Posted by: GemmaStar [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 10:56 AM [link]

Good day Bill, I wish you the best of luck with any health challenges you may face.

I was wondering if "your guy" ever completed or is close to completing the report you spoke of regarding Crystallex?

Posted by: BritNick [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 11:17 AM [link]


Time to 'chat' about non precious metals...

I have been hearing for the last several years about shortages of metals.
Yet I have heard of no company reporting a shortage.

My conclusion: there is no metal shortage - but a lot of hoarding going on.

Metals have a long history of being hoarded and being dumped on the market if the price falls.
China has done this before.

Lately a little bit of metals inventory has started showing up at the LME.

Also nickel, which seemed to be 'propped' up all during the Inco saga ended its run once the deal was finalized. Very curious!

I think metal prices are going to remain higher than average over the rest of the decade - but short term I wonder?

Metals has been a theme - pension funds even went into it. What happens if copper breaks support? All those metals being hoarded come on the market.

These prices also have a history of manipulation.
All the CTA's which are connected to the LME and other exchanges also have vested interests - just like Bill's HBB's.

Anyone notice that the US is trying to consolidate the LME?
They want to get control of it.
They get control of it - they control the prices indirectly.
Speculation ends - funds caught going the wrong way - unload like Amaranth...

If 2006 was the 'Year of the Metals' what is 2007? Perhaps a 'Year of Unwinding'

Just another one of my 'unexpected' ideas...

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 11:35 AM [link]

Canadian oil trust prices were hit hard after an announcement by the conservative government they intended to tax them. Since any tax, if implemented (and it's sufficiently politically unpopular that it may not be implemented at all), wouldn't kick in for four years this looked like an overreaction. The gap down on quality trusts such as Penn West was fairly spectacular and sure looked like a buying opportunity and some strong buying did indeed occur yesterday. But then something happened that I didn't expect: The trust prices were hit hard again this morning, not as hard as the beginning of the week but hard enough.

At these prices PWE looks like a screaming buy but is there something else going on here? Anyone got a idea?

Posted by: RW [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 12:08 PM [link]

http://www.morganstanley.com/cgi-bin/morganstanley.com/pressroom.cgi

Morgan Stanley has announced it bought a number of very large hedge funds. I just wonder if this is why we haven't seen other hedge funds collapse (i.e, their losses are being swept under the carpet)?


Lansdowne: $12B
FrontPoint: $5.5B
20% of Avenue Capital (a $12B fund)


Posted by: SiO2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 12:40 PM [link]

MarkM - Thanks for bringing our attention to Hussman's take on gold stocks. He IS a smart dude, an unusual for his mixing of economist's and investor's mentality.

He saw conditions for gold come together by Sept, 00, per his editor. And Media General's gold-sub-industry index bottomed 10/26/00. Since then it's up over 330%. (STILL, MG's silver sub-industry index is up over 10X!)

Sounds like a case of follow Hussman's indicator, but favor silver, namely SLW.

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 1:03 PM [link]

RW, you had the same thought that I did regarding the timing of the legislation(far out) v. the magnitude of the drop (9.0 on the Richter scale). Perhaps it's a cocktail of falling commodity prices coupled with increased taxation implications.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 1:38 PM [link]

I did pick up some ERF....one lot at 41.96 and one lot at 42.06. Ex div (.42/share) on 11/08. I don't think it will fall .42 a share from where I picked it up.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 1:57 PM [link]

Here is a gem.

Finally, and ominously, we note a statement from one of
the US' strongest allies in the Persian Gulf, the United Arab
regarding the central bank's holdings of US dollars. Speaking
at a meeting of Gulf central bankers, the Governor of the central bank of the UAE, Sultan bin Nasser al-Suwaidi, said succinctly in
terms that even we could understand about his country's'
holdings of US dollars, "It is our intention to diversify [away];
we are still waiting for the appropriate time." The UAE has
presently 98% of its reserves in dollar denominated assets.
This is shockingly un-diversified. Mr. al-Suwaidi said that it
is the Bank's intention eventually to reduce that to 50-90%.
It is this latter comment that has our attention, for in the
past the Bank has made "noise" about diversifying away
from the US dollar, but has never set targets, and certainly
it has never set a target as low as 50%. If the UAE... a
staunch US ally... is considering such a move, what then of
the US' lesser allies? And what even more then of the US'
enemies?

Posted by: Telestar3d [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 2:16 PM [link]

Of course, the market likes to prove me wrong!

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 2:19 PM [link]


RW

I think PWE is underperforming bouncewise because it has such a crappy yield compared to the rest.

The fact that it is a component of the index means it should have had a good bounce due to its weighting - but didn't - this is also a bad sign IMO.

I prefer to play the others trusts for trading.

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 2:22 PM [link]

Bill,
Best wishes for your biopsy results. I (and am sure many others) are praying for you.
Since this is also a social equity site, let me add that American system also taxes based on domicile (e.g.legal immigrants) but do not give voting rights.

Posted by: ghosalb [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 2:34 PM [link]

Thanks Leisa, looks like ERF got hit pretty hard too although the carnage on both ERF and PWE seems to have let up this afternoon (on smaller volume). At these prices yields have simply skyrocketed and I may take a small position regardless but not as large as I might have given the uncertainty level.

Tradesman, thanks, if you wouldn't mind sharing a couple names I'd appreciate it. I've been looking at a couple of trusts sold OTC, ARC (AETUF) and Peyto (PEYUF), but have been having trouble getting decent information on them.

Posted by: RW [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 2:43 PM [link]

I keep seeing investor company financial decisions made based on estimates but not year over year actual resultts.
I think this metodology of estimate comparison is not very usefull in fact allows manipulation.

Posted by: bob [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 2:51 PM [link]

RW

Here's all the symbols I am trading right now trust wise...
These are the Canadian symbols - so I'll give you them in Yahoo format - you can then find the related American symbol

PGF-UN.TO
YLO-UN.TO
FDG-UN.TO
COS-UN.TO
PWT-UN.TO
HTE-UN.TO
CNE-UN.TO
PD-UN.TO

The first three I consider for investing - and i guess one could buy these weakness at the 'right time'.

The others are strictly trading only for me - I wouldn't be surprised if these ones go lower -
at some point this year.

People are liquidating these things hand over fist. If Oil stays above $55 maybe their 'internal' bottom is already in?

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 3:13 PM [link]


Regarding the TSX, trusts etc...

There has been panic selling of trust funds being liquidated by tbe public

.. and panic buying of banks as a replacement...

It remains to be seen if the uptrend in banks will continue - it could - as they broke out today - however they usually trade on yield - and unless they increase the dividend with their earnings announcments next week - this could be short lived.

As a matter of fact - in the past when this happens - it signifies another peak in the index or at least a long 'dead' period.

I will look to buy the panics now and fade the banks later on perhaps... the public always loses in these 'mass' moves over the short to intermediate term IMO.

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 3:44 PM [link]

I need to ask, is the permit that KRY just got THE permit? Or will the market wait until May when the drill results come in?

-Q

Posted by: Quentusrex [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 3:58 PM [link]

thanks for the commentary on the Income Trusts - it's helpful. Any opinions on TSE:X getting hammered here? It also broke on the downside of a symmetrical triangle pattern but stayed in the longterm trading range. Further weakness is expected I suppose. Why would TSE:X get hammered on the Trust news?

Posted by: sergio [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 4:02 PM [link]

Many thanks Tradesman, that was very helpful.

I have difficulty visualizing a scenario where oil stays below US $55 globally for very long even if the US experiences a 'hard landing' (recession) but of course that doesn't mean it can't happen. High-yield Canadian assets look pretty good from 'down here' for other reasons too though. -R

Note to Quentusrex -- no, as far as I am aware at least, KRY received an environmental permit for the test holes only & not the whole project -- still, not a bad sign, since it testifies to a reasonable level of cooperation w/ a critical govt agency.

Posted by: RW [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 4:12 PM [link]

For trusts, be most careful of the ones with large levels of foreign ownership. The tax implications to Americans is as negative as it is to Canadians, or more so. The ones with largest foreign ownership in the royalty trust sector are:
Advantage over 50%
Pengrowth over 50%
Penn West over 50%
PrimeWest over 70%
Enerplus 73%
Provident 83%

So for Americans, the easiest ones to trade are MAYBE the ones that will be take the longest to bounce.

So those are the ones maybe not to trade, but which ones TO trade depends on whether you think gas will outperform oil or vice versa.

Cannacord, in their analysis of the implications of some the trusts they are in, stated that BTE.UN was probably worth close to where it was prior to the announcement, and in the last 2 days has dropped 21%. COS.UN they feel is trading below NAV and in the last 2 days has dropped 15%.

I have nibbled a little as I think there will be a bounce but from what level is the question.

Posted by: bobj [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 4:22 PM [link]

So they are only permitted to drill the exploration holes? And they are expected to get the permit for the whole project after May when they get the results back? or would they get the permit for the whole project before they finish with this drill program?

Posted by: Quentusrex [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 4:28 PM [link]

Classical music lovers out there? Here's a post Halloween treat...http://www.surfmusic.de/radio-station/classic-fm,1048.html

Courtesy of http://investingfromtheright.blogspot.com/

Being a leftie, finding a gem such as this from a rightie only shows that common ground can be cultivated so long as it is confined to the delightful parameters of wine, music, and good conversation! You'll need a UK zip code (may I suggest G4 0BA along with an Argentinian Malbec?) Yes, I feel dirty lying about my zipcode, but the Brits need to export something why not this delightful musical source!

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 6:07 PM [link]

Had I not been tossed overboard for speaking out two weeks ago, then I'm pretty sure today would have been my last as a Harper Tory, because you don't do this kind of thing to people you promised. - Garth Turner on the Income Trust announcement.

http://www.garth.ca/weblog/

Posted by: wavesmash [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 6:11 PM [link]


sergio:

TSE:X is trading down because it makes money on new exchange listings and new IPOS.
So if no more income trusts are allowed then there are fewer new listings for TSE:X - and hence it has lower earnings on fees.

I also suspect people are shorting it. But haven't checked yet.

It WAS seen as a growth story: 1st income trusts conversions and then the 'oil boom' IPO's.

Technically looks like X hit a lot of support yesterday even on the weekly.
So I would expect it to trade inside for several days.
However you never know - it could make a quick run to say 41.6 or so...

bobj:
thanks will look at BTE.UN tonight

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 6:17 PM [link]


Garth Turner - Ha!

He wrote a book in 1999/2000

Told everyone to stay away from real estate, gold and the mining industry as investments.

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 6:21 PM [link]

Q:
Yes, as far as I know, the Oct 26 environmental permit only covers the 40 test holes. There does not seem to be any direct relationship between that permit and the environmental permit for the entire project, in terms of timing or anything else.


bobj:
Thanks for the warning.

Posted by: RW [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 6:34 PM [link]

Leisa
While sipping an NZ Oyster Bay Sauv Blanc, and feeling somewhat happy about recent market movement, I decided to check out your site contribution: investingfromtheright.
I kept reading and jotted notes to check on such mundane matters as: best credit cards, do I need to check my credit reports? Insurance needs? Shoes?
This is the kind of stuff that I probably should pay more attention to.
How do you rate this site?
What's been your experience?
I could probably use some housekeeping.
Thanks.

Posted by: Rigdon [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 7:00 PM [link]

Leisa,

Thank you for the classical music source.I am enjoying it as I do some reading. :)

Tony

Posted by: tony [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 7:35 PM [link]

Rigdon, I'm not qualified to rate a thing. My site contribution was an attribution for the internet FM that I would not have found otherwise. I have been in some pleasant correspondence with the site's writer. To be sure, pleasant conversation is not yet a commodity, and I rather doubt that any of us will ever live to see it as such. The serendipitous routes we take through the internet do provide some fanciful stops along the way--such as this one.

Tony, I've got a Nobilo, SB (Marlborough) that I'm enjoying (from discount warehouse). Those NZ and Australian Sauv Blancs are hard to beat both in taste and price.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2006 9:03 PM [link]

Leisa-

I remember when you were almost too shy to speak up. Now you are a source on wines, classical music and the like for readers round the globe! :)

Someone asked yesterday why the miners weren't acting well. That's because the market isn't acting well, nor should it with the barrage of bad data that has come its way. If we get a nasty selloff the miners will be hit in The Great Beta Toss. Gold will likely be tossed INITIALLY as the weak-kneed dump positions then quickly recover.

Big Question: What happens to Gold if Copper starts acting unwell? I don't like that chart one iota and I don't think metals have completely unlinked. Copper and steel have me puzzled right now.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2006 5:25 AM [link]

Bill
Great read, good luck on test results..
MarkM
Thanks for piece from Hussman very informative.

Posted by: mikede [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2006 8:49 AM [link]

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