The base metals report says that aluminum production is up 52%/64% not price. The prices has been steadily dropping although the report shows that demand is increasing in China. I've been watching ACH as a possible buy. Could anyone (including Bill) give their take on ACH as a longterm investment?

Thanks -

"More than one million Canadians across the country own units in Income Funds and it is estimated that another million Canadians invest in Income Funds indirectly through mutual funds. Pension funds invest in Income Funds to earn returns that fund payments to their retirees. For example the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan has over $2.2 billion invested and earned over $900 million in 2004 from Income Funds."

http://www.caif.ca/background/FactSheet.htm

Is that $2.2B now 700 million in today dollars?

Business News America Article on Crystallex and Gold Reserve. Any thoughts to it's impact and what it could mean?

Govt proposes partnership with Crystallex at Las Cristinas - Venezuela
Published: Thursday, November 2, 2006 18:17 (GMT -0400)

Venezuela's mining and basic industries ministry Mibam has proposed a partnership with Toronto-based Crystallex International (TSX: KRY) to develop the company's Las Cristinas gold project.

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"This possibility was presented to the company just as a suggestion. [The ministry] cannot make a direct proposal since we still do not have the new law, but we made it known that we are looking at the possibility," Venezuela's deputy mining minister Iván Hernández told BNamericas.

According to the official, the ministry made the same suggestion to Gold Reserve de Venezuela, a subsidiary of Spokane, Washington-based Gold Reserve (TSX, Amex: GRZ), which owns the Las Brisas gold project adjacent to Las Cristinas.

"We are waiting for the new mining law to be approved which will allow for the creation of joint ventures. That is under discussion. However right now we are regulated by the existing mining law," he said.

While the national assembly (AN) - responsible for discussing and approving mining law reform - is still at work, projects will not be able to start moving forward "although we know that that law is going to be approved in coming months," he said.

The companies recognized the government's posture and President Hugo Chávez's social policy, according to Hernández.

To create the state-private partnerships, Mibam will re-launch the social production company (EPS) Minera Nacional, the official said.

CRISTINAS RESOURCE UPDATE

Meanwhile Crystallex said in a statement that it has launched a 40-hole drill program at Las Cristinas with a view to completing an updated resource and reserve estimate by May next year.

The 11,500m program will cost some US$1.6mn and is slated to wrap up at end-January.

The idea is to upgrade inferred resources to the measured and indicated category. Current proven and probable reserves at Las Cristinas are estimated at 13.6Moz of gold contained in 353Mt of ore grading 1.20g/t, the statement said.

The estimate, based on US$400/oz gold, also outlined measured and indicated resources of 17.7Moz of gold including the proven and probable reserves, plus inferred resources of 4.5Moz of gold, Crystallex said.

By Harvey Beltrán
Business News Americas

Related Companies / Entities:
Crystallex International Corporation
Gold Reserve Inc.

ERF has had a nice bounce today.

Leisa Re: ERF

Kind of funny - even with the big bounce the thing is still yielding less than 10%

I remember when Energy Trusts used to yield 18%

Now those were the days

Maybe the game now is this:
They are all going to turn back into corporations or 'someone's going to buy them out'.

Never underestimate the ways and means for the financial spinners to try to make money and the public to lose money. Are they pumping this stuff to get out - or did they load up after scaring the public?

I can't help but think there is still another wave of sellers waiting to get their money back on these things though.

While were on the topic of Income Trusts.
Some of the actions by the Canadian Brokerages and Houses have been shameful - pathetic - worse than in the US.

I saw one House that downgraded a Trust to a target of $20. The thing dropped 35%
Then magically once the price went close to $20 - they (yes the same House!) upgraded it right back up to $26.

Same with Telus the Telco...
Downgraded it by $10.
Telling everyone the price was going to drop by at least 15-20%.
Then magically 24 hours later - they it was upgraded right back up by $10 again.

The Public has been ripped off here.
Dumping those they should be keeping.
And piling back into ones that the Houses want to dump.

Shameful shameful...

Tradesman...

Direct question to you and the other trading talent...any trades on the VIX?

Re ERF...I'm in it for a short term trade. I believe that if this taxation thing is 4 years off a 10% yield is still pretty good (and that presumes that oil $ doesn't tank.

Talk about unusual stuff...I'm still mesmerized by Prudential's bearish report on the non-precious metals only to have all of the shares rally just a couple of weeks later. This space has made me realize how duplicitous (I'm not saying Pru's report was) the information is.

Leisa... I don't trade any fancy stuff like the VIX or options...

I just keep it simple - shorterm intraday and multiday swings on equities and indexes

Re: ERF - if there is another hit against these trusts or oil ... IMO ERF and Penn West will be hit hard again. Relative Yield is too low.

If no hit - they won't go up as much as the other Oil Trusts that are yielding 14-16%. That is unless they are part of some T.O play based on their assets.

Excuse the double post... added something at the bottom...

Leisa... I don't trade any fancy stuff like the VIX or options...

I just keep it simple - shorterm intraday and multiday swings on equities and indexes

Re: ERF - if there is another hit against these trusts or oil ... IMO ERF and Penn West will be hit hard again. Relative Yield is too low.

If no hit - they won't go up as much as the other Oil Trusts that are yielding 14-16%. That is unless they are part of some T.O play based on their assets.

---
... btw there is a battle going on with oil to keep it down today - this is obvious.
Oil stocks have not reflected this yet and are trading on Nigeria Terror threats.

If oil closes below 60 today and it opens down on Monday I expect a big hit on these trusts again. Otherwise yesterday was a perfect timed entry. I took a little bit of the table - as I am short term oriented. Rest is running on a stop.

good luck

To what extent did the US play a role in the Canadian Trust debacle? The US, it would seem, had the most to gain from removing the tax benefits. The US will see more tax revenue, or more importantly, they can increase their confidence on the forecasted revenue numbers produced within the DC bubble.

Why would someone time this annoucement for October which is already a pretty busy month for financial news?

I had trouble sleeping last night, and the thought that kept turning over in my head was "its all a rigged game." If your not an insider, sooner or later, your going to get burned.

ableape...I'm no tax expert, but I have some SLF stock from when they de-mutualized. They withhold the canadian incom tax from my dividends. So the canadian gov't, if I'm extrapolating correctly, will receive it's taxable share through a required withhold. You'll get a dividend statement including your withheld foreign tax.

Tradesman, thanks for your post. I very much appreciate your perspective.

Leisa .. and others...

..Canadian wires reported at 12:30PM TODAY that:

"(CA) Canada will not exempt oil & gas firms from the new income trust tax rules - Aide to PM"

So I guess it's official - for now anyways.
The rumours this morning about them maybe getting exempt are untrue.

Larry Berman on ROBTV always seems to straight-forward and DECENT. He's TERRIFIC; Doesn't feel much like a tout-tv guest at ALL !

WFMI a Cara100 stock took a 23% hit today driving it down to $US 46.26.

Does anyone consider this a good buy??

Regards

Bob, as I see it, WFMI is one of the first to put out honest guidance and has been killed for doing so. Their courage is impressive, and good reason to keep them on the radar for a future investment. They are clearly worthy of being a Cara 100.
As for now, I'm not gobbling up shares (even though I frequently shop there, and gobble up all their freebies).
My problem is that they are the high priced provider and, if we are heading into a recession..or worse, they will be hit a lot harder than Walmart (even though they appear to be taking a hit).
I think there will be better time to buy this excellent company.
Good weekend to all. Next week will sure be "interesting".

Bob,

I remember Bill called a while ago that WFMI will go below $50 and enter accumulation zone. Personally, I think it is a buy and bought half today. If you look at the monthly, weekly, daily and hourly RSI, you do see it is in accumulation zone.

I also agree with Ridgon it may get hit hard in recession. There may be better entry price ahead, when I plan to add more (I did sell some puts at $40). My personal opinion is that if it goes to $42, it will be absolutely cheap with trailing 30 PE, considering their potential. (When I did research on how many stores they have in each major city, I can see at least another 60% inrease in # of stores domestically before reaching saturation. I live in a big mideast city and have to drive 15 mile to get to the closest one.)

It probably will have a lot of volatility ahead though. Hopefully, Bill will share his opinion.

Regarding the new trust regulations from 'The Honourable James M. Flaherty, P.C., M.P. Finance '.

Check his smiling photo and perhaps offer a comment as suggested by this website.

http://www.fin.gc.ca/comment/minfine.html

I would like a comment from a constitutional expert.

Does this initiative need to be voted on by Parliament and could the current government be defeated in a non-confidence vote over this issue. If they were...would the Liberals cynically promise a return to the status quo as PM Harper did last fall.

The announcement coming on Oct 31 permits the Government to evaluate and perhaps re-formulate their position prior to the average investor actually seeing the hit in their monthly statements…………..

This situation is still very fluid

Regarding WFMI, it is also owned by funds with strict guidelines for social equity. It doesn't surprise me, then, that the company is being forthright about its fundamentals.

I don't own it yet, but it's on my watchlist. I expect it will go lower as I know that we are in the early stages of a recession. I believe WFMI will suffer over the next several quarters as people switch from Peets to Folgers.