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November 2, 2006
Cara's position on Cdn Income Trusts, Thurs., Nov. 2, 2006, 6:59 PM
My position on Canadian Income Trusts has been well advanced on these pages. I have written a lot about this subject.
In one article, dated Nov. 18, 2005, I told you what I really think. I didn't want readers to think I was a fence-sitter, so I gave it that title.
And when the former Liberal government was about to fall, I wrote on Nov. 24, 2005 that the political grandstanding and the cow-towing of politicians by media was simply shameful.
Read these words from almost a year ago, and ask yourself who "gets it!"
"After the January federal election, there will be a new government, and as things stand, it will not likely be a Liberal one. The new government, however, must address this issue of taxation differences between corporations and trusts. That process will take many months, and millions of taxpayer dollars, before a legislative bill can be voted on.Nothing today has changed. There is no legislation, just political grandstanding that plays into the hands of players who spin markets in order to create transactions.
All an objective trader need do is sit back and observe the cheerleading of various vested interest parties. That cheerleading is intended to swing momentum back and forth. The financial services industry, and the managers of Canadian royalty and income trusts are playing the owner of capital yet again."
Today, I have read bloggers and writers, and watched Talking Heads react stupidly, absolutely, totally unthinkingly, about this issue. Instead of focusing on the crucially important issue of needed tax reform, these centers of influence are playing the "he said, she said" game.
Over recent months, as the equity market moved closer to Armageddon, maybe you noticed how I was using the research reports of Canada's Humungous Bank & Broker in pointing to their advice. If you bought a security on that professional advice, and you claim to have lost your life savings, then sue them.
As for me, I'm on the record as to: (i) not liking these trusts, (ii) urging "buyer beware", (iii) calling them "so-called" investment vehicles, (iv) saying they are part of the musical chair game, (v) calling them tax avoidance vehicles for some but not all, (vi) stating that buyers were fooling themselves in thinking they are fixed income, (vii) questioning their over-leveraged debt and aging asset structure, (viii) questioning the dubious value of most of the issues that were floated after the initial ones, and (ix) on and on.
I even pointed you to Al Rosen, one of Canada's leading forensic accountants, and a person of considerable authority, as someone you needed to carefully listen to before listening to a sales pitch.
So, why let the media or your financial advisor rehash the past? If you bought these vehicles on bad advice, you have to take personal responsibility. Good advice was available to you " here and elsewhere. Did you listen?
Some of you did because you wrote me to tell me that. And, if I saved at least one family from material destruction to their estate, then I feel good. It's why I write this non-commercial blog.
This income trust issue and the need for tax reform must be decided in the federal legislature, and it will be.
Yesterday, the trust segment of the Toronto Stock Exchange was down -19-pct, and today it had regained about +10-pct. I suspect it will now lose about -5-pct and go back and forth in cycles of increasingly small amplitude that will soon balance current prices to value.
If the value is there, there may be some of these companies worthy of your interest. Without a tax advantage, however, many or even most may have to spend millions in legal and accounting fees to be restructured yet again. And that has to be factored into your decision.
In future weeks, I'm sure HB&B will try to save face and tell you which ones they continue to support on the basis of probable changes to the tax regime. If I'm able to obtain reports worthy of your time, I'll pass them along, as usual.
And, as usual, I was not wrong on this issue, which, I am pleased to say, the record shows.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 2, 2006 06:59:16 PM | Category: Canada
Discourse
I was very anxious to hear your reaction to this topic and very much appreciate your doing so, despite recent weariness.
My only substantive comment is that I have invested in the Oil & Gas trusts in the last 3.5 years. I had the old Petrofund that was merged into Penn West (PWE) and I do currently hold a small position in CNE. While I am not soliciting your opinions on either of those, I simply wanted to add that this issue has been lingering for many moons now and seems to come in violent fits and starts (which does generate some legitimate criticism of the Canadian govt).
I understand your point that Minister Flaherty is simply trying to herd the cats in light of the Telus BCE merger, which this is clearly intended to stop (he said so). However, I remain skeptical that the Trust format will end up truly eliminated for all except passive RE (ala the US Reit which now appears on the verge of global exportation).
Even in this most recent effort, the older trusts are given a full 4 years to adjust. This sure smells like the old, half-brained efforts from when I was PTF (early 2003)holder and sets the table for compromise on Bay Street.
As an American, I admit that I am profiteering in the Canadian oil patch, and maybe if I were a Canadian, I'd fully share your perspective on the need for true reform. But, the genie is out of the bottle and for good or bad, it's going to be real tough to put her back in without mutual concessions.
Thanks again, Bill. I really appreciate your great work here.
Posted by: elvispoc
at
November 2, 2006 10:42 PM [link]
Simply Amazing!! Your blog shows the best of the internet age. Even a paid financial advisor will not provide this good knowledge and value. I was not invested in these Canadian Income trusts at any time but going back and reading an article written almost a year ago by you is a proof (not that your regular readers need any more of that) of the highest quality of youe blog.
Best wishes for your biopsy report and I hope that you will continue to write this Blog for long time to come.
Posted by: Rick
at
November 2, 2006 11:22 PM [link]
I'll admit to it. I got spanked on ERF. I don't understand what Johnny is up to on this one. Canada is just adding to its fame as a place to lose money. This was a total setup for them. Their currency has been doing well. Mining stocks are back in vogue. People in the US are looking for a safe and sane place to invest where the currency is not sitting on a mountain of debt. They had found a way to draw in investment money from the US and they just shot themselves in the foot. There were a lot of options to them such as grand fathering in the older vehicles for a long enough time that the shock wouldn't have been so bad.
What's that old saying “How do you create a small Canadian business? Give him a large one to manage!�
Timing is everything. If I had gotten scared by the pull back in energy stocks, I could have gotten out before this happened.
I appreciate Bill's warning that these vehicles weren't trust worthy, but ERF seemed to be a more stable stock.
I guess I am going to be driving my '86 Olds Cierra a few more years:-)
Posted by: ableape
at
November 3, 2006 12:46 AM [link]
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Why should foriegn investors put their money in Canadain equities? Let's face it, this was primamrily an attack on those who have no political representation in the Canadian political system. Much like the high taxes on hotel occupancy. What are hotel customers who pay hotel taxes going to do, vote the bums out? And what happens to those Canadian companies that now find themselves undervalued? Is Canada about to lose some of it's hard assests through aquistions by foreign companies?
In the short and intermediate term, how much will Canada pay for doing the right thing in the long term?
discloser: I don't not current own any Canadian trusts, nor have for the past two years. So in my case, this is not about sour grapes.
Posted by: JB
at
November 2, 2006 9:17 PM [link]