It seems to me that CEF, is mis-priced at the moment and if the movement in gold holds one should get an easy 1% here. IMHO

Hugo Chavez in Bolivar today. Invites intl media and national media for a press conference 3pm VZ/2pm NY. Might be nothing. Might be everything re: las cristinas?

KRY futures up in any event ;)

I have to say that the action in CEF is really strange. If someone can explain this, I'm listening.

Re: CEF

http://www.adviceforinvestors.com/$main$nobody,,18604838$e4f9ff70dd93/press_release.phtml?symbol=CEF.A&_time=20061130092002

While I hope something big will happen for KRY, frankly I dont' expect Chavez to do anything until this weekend's election is over. I expect he is there campaigning. He is reported as having a large lead:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/29/AR2006112901181.html

After the election he will have so much power he can probably do anything he wants. Hopefully he may want to immediately improve exports in Venezuela, but I'm afraid the "El Comandante" won't be easily convinced to allow a foreign concern to mine his gold.

A lot of lines drawn in the sand here...

Fed Funds 5.25 versus 4.5 for the 10 year.
That's a wide spread.
Yields going back up? Or is the Fed going to cave in?

Oil 63ish and Gold 650'ish - breakout or failure?

Tradesman,
What do you look at on your monitor screens during market hours? I have two computers with four screens, one runs Briefing.com with Dow Jones news as a split screen. One has my order platform with a watchlist as a split screen. The third has three level two with matching time and sales on the GLD, GDX and USO. One Chart on the USO on that screen as well. The last screen has Tradestation for any stock that I am trading at the moment which shows several charts in differing time frames with a level two and time and sales for that stock.

Re: CEF

I sold some CEF on Monday, trading was 17% over NAV.
I am buying those same re-priced shares back today if I can, looks like the premium has eased back to 6% over.

KRY. I'd think the most Chavez would do is make a campaign promise that local miners will be treated well, and the state will benefit from new mining operations that he will approve. Unemployment is a problem, particularly in the provinces. Oil riches don't create that many jobs. Still, that could propel KRY higher. I'd be surprised if final approval comes before Feb-Apr, '07. Venezuelans take the holiday season VERY seriously.

Some of the trading sites (eg, Helene Meisler of thestreet.com) are throwing out short-term targets of 82 for the $USD, and 650 for gold. KRY, USGL looking good.

stktrader

In real time Charts I monitor
S&P's
PREM
TICK
Oil
Spot Gold
TSX

I also monitor the real time Price of
TNX DJIA DJTRAM NAZ SOX MID RUS HGX XOI XUA/HUI
TSX Composite and each of its subindices

These two windows comprise my - 'look into the market'.

On another I have a list of the 60-100 things I usually trade.
I flip between 3min 10min 30min 1hr & daily charts on these when I have the time.

Otherwise I'm on top of my watch list watching what I am currently trading or anticating trading.
Here I flip between 1 min and 3 min charts to look for the entries and exits (having already studied the 10min 30min 1hr daily charts).

You may laugh - but I stopped using Level 2.
It was just getting in my way.
I think it's usually clear whether a stock is being traded down or traded up - and if your not clear - don't trade it.
Anyways since I don't scalp I don't need Level 2.

I also don't follow news much during the day as I find this also distracts me.
Since most of my trades are entered/exited on or near the open - or at obvious technical points during the day - I don't need all the latest breaking news.

In fact for me I say - Keep it simple.
All these flashing screens and lights and PR after PR and talking heads on TV all seem to just get in my way.

Better to concentrate on being a better trader - rather than trying to run a NASA space station with all the latest trading technology - but that's just the way I see it - maybe others do better with all the latest tools - to each their own.

To be honest I think trading is about 10% technicals - the other 90% is learning to manage your emotions.

I am enjoying the best technical my system can provide and haven't seen it in a long time i.e. a greeeeeen screen ;)

John Embry of Sprott Asset Management was on ROBTv again today for the lunch hour session.

He's always a good listen, still very bullish on the PMs, sees $900-$1000 as where gold "should" trade, and sees it taking out $850 in 6-7 months.

Top picks for today were: Southwestern Gold (SWG.TO), Wesdome (WDO.TO), and Genco (GGC.V).

Of note he opined that Crystallex was high risk, and perhaps there were better opportunities elsewhere (I'm long KRY).

Anyway, replay should be up on robtv.com in a bit for those who are interested.

TM,
I hear what you are saying and taking note. I like the standard version of Briefing, not the trading version. That version is to busy. Since my news is on one screen, it does not distract me. I look at it when I have a lull in time. It is good for consensus numbers on earnings/economic reports or an overview of the day if I am not at home due to business. I can understand your take on level two and time and sales. You seem to concentrate on the internals and trade your favorites off of them for the trend moves of a given trading period. A mini-macro trading method. Interesting.

I sold about 1/3 of my gold position just recently, letting go all of sil, gfi, and 1/3 kry. I'm still long gld, cef, kry, and usgl. Time will tell if I'm able to re-buy at lower prices, but want to lock-in some profits.

Good luck to all.

You gotta laugh at this market - inflationary equities up - deflationary equities up - everyone is playing every angle long - Fed's gonna cut - No its Staglation - No its deflation look at the 10 year ... throw a dart - everyone's a winner - its end of the month!

Duly noted though that the brokers/dealers looked a little weak today.

I also noted that oil perked up right after it was announced 1 week ago that Cheney was to meet with the Saudi King Ahead of the Iraq Summit - was he asking for a favour??? If so maybe the Saudi's wanted something in return???

I'm betting the PM market continues upward from what I've read and studied here, especially with the U$D on the decline, into into the new year.

However, to capture some of the profits, I'm only selling pieces of my orginal purchase, say 25 shares of a 150 share original buy and try to stay near or exceed the Buffett standard i.e. 26%.

$660 will be the next stiff resistence IMO. Will lock in some profits right before.

I have been in Yamana since summer (from the nines) and the recent action looks like someone might be front running a buyout. Because of the action I decided to tinker with a diagnonal spread selling July-07 $15 calls and buying Jan-08 $10 calls.

Am I just spinning my wheels with this approach? I would like to hear some experiences of how traders use options to profit from potentital buyouts.

Thanks in advance.

I haven't sold any PM positions, agreeing with C.Note that fundamentals and technicals are both pointing towards further gains.
Today was an "all green" day for miners with most closing near daily highs.
What I like is the rising volume across the board with many over twice averages.
Could be a break out day.
But what about tomorrow.
My approach is to raise stops on all accounts not subject to the "30 day rule", thus IRA, 401(K) and Roth accounts. I don't mind being taken out of these positions (with a nice profit) as I can jump back in at will w/o tax consequences.
As for cash accounts, I play these as long term investments, riding the ups and downs until I believe the fundamentals have changed. I know Bill ignores tax consequences, but I so prefer long term treatment (as a matter of principal (sp)) that I do take this into consideration in both buy and sell decisions.
Fun. Onward and upward.
Good luck to all.

No one noticed the 4% jump in the housing stocks today? Lots of volume.

A respected analyst came out with an upgrade citing increased foot traffic in a November survey. Nevermind that October was bleak for both existing and new home sales.

If Steven Kim or Margaret Whelan issued the same report, they would have been dismissed as the shills they are. Not Oppenheim. He has credibility. Or had.

Either this fellow has sold his soul, has made an honest mistake, or sees something that most honest observers of the housing situation haven't yet recognized.

I just find the timing extremely curious.

number2son said:

"Either this fellow has sold his soul, has made an honest mistake, or sees something that most honest observers of the housing situation haven't yet recognized."

From personal contacts I have within the home building industry in Ohio and Florida I have observed the following:

New home construction in Ohio is VERY weak. My brother-in-law just received a layoff notice last week. He's employed by an established, competent builder of 60-80 custom homes per year. The staff has been cut steadily over the last 2 months. I know and have business dealings with this builder personally. He's a resonsible person and would not jeapordize the families involved unless the situation was dire.

In SW Florida, I recently talked to a veteran in the industry who worked for Lennar Homes. He was one of 10 supervisors recently laid off from a pool of 20. The company had already released 10 supervisors previously, so they have gone from 30 down to 10 in the last 3 months.

I have a personal friend who is an established property appraiser in SW Florida. He used to complete 10 appraisals a week and he's now down to 15 a month. He said if things don't pick up in the next month he'll be unable to make his monthly obligations.

I do not know how these analysts see this as the bottom for the real estate market. Inventory of homes is still VERY high where I live. My father was a home builder and land developer for 38 years from the 1950s through 1990. I recall very well the downturn in real estate in 1979-81. This feels very much like that period, despite the fact that interest rates aren't anywhere close to where they were at that time. That's alarming.

The problems in the U.S. macro economy with excessive spending and debt are coming home to roost. The economy has suffered some very serious and unfortunate setbacks in recent years.

It began when Greenspan flooded the banking system prior to the possible computer glitches due to the transition from 1999 to 2000, which in turn helped to feed the tech stock frenzy; and its inevitable crash.

Then 9/11 came along, which lead to a recession. So more easy money from the Fed to keep things afloat.

And then the Iraq war came to the fore, so the Fed once again opened up the money spigots which lead to the real estate explosion. But it has also now come crashing down like the tech stocks.

There needs to be a time of cleansing, of fiscal responsiblitiy on behalf of our govt. leaders, of rebuilding our reputation as a true world leader, and of getting back on the right track.

It won't happen overnight. Our leaders must first recognize the problem and stop sweeping the problems under the rug. IMO, there's quite possibly more pain before we can get this ship righted in the proper direction.

Best regards to all.