Today:
VFGI down 0.6%
GDX up 3.7%

Glad I didn't listen to BG yesterday or I'd be down 4.3% in one day. (sorry, had to do it ;-) won't do it again)

Gloating is so ugly, isn't it?

Indium a commodity play on solar tech?

Indium is a rare metal that is used in a number of rapidly developing sectors. Its primary use is as a thin-film coating for LCD displays, such as flat panel computer monitors, televisions, PDAs (e.g. BlackBerry, Palm Pilot) and cell phones.

Indium is also a critical component in new thin-film solar technology, pioneered at America's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The cost of this technology is 90% to 95% less than the cost to manufacture an equally efficient solar panel that uses silicon, which bodes well for the future of solar energy and the global indium market.

Bill,
I believe the commodity ramp was caused by this Reuter's report that China plans on diversifying its forex reserves, which some speculate reached $1 trillion last month. Even a small fraction of that would overwhelm the relatively small precious metals markets.

Disclosure: long gold, euro, various gold stocks

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=c9e1c03f-004b-4302-b8c1-5ee2b754dbcc

But, but my cycle work says we were to be working this week on putting in a shallow low! :)(Deletes programs and reports.)

Man oh man I would like to start scaling back up after holding those positions from XAU=121 and XAU=133 for about, oh, FOREVER.

With the way the elections went, look for many of the controls that were keeping commodity prices down, to be lifted as many of those in power no longer have the incentive to keep paper assets, (USD, and equities) articially high. This change most likely will impact oil/gas more, but I expect it to eventually hit precious metals with a domino effect as the economy softens.

DollarBill
How do you play Indium? Is the stuff traded on any exchange or is it privately traded like uranium? Any equity pure plays?
Thanks in advance.

Hey Bill I am getting a broken link for that UBS report. Could you repost the link?

$640 appears to be the line in the sand; Gold tried to break through it twice since the $730 top in May to no avail. The nervousness of this market is likely to power through $640 in the short term helping to raise the base support.

Most of the moves in the Gold and US market today were IMO related to the announcements of the removal of 'accommodation' by the JCB and the ECB - not the China story.

They waited until after the US election to do this coordinated campaign.

This will put pressure on the carry trade - particularly that out of Japan.

What we saw today may be the beginning of an unwinding that has been discussed in previous postings in Bill's blog.

If this is the case there could be erratic moves in Gold just like there was in Dec'05 and May '06 .

It's possible that as they unwind they are moving capital into Gold as some temporary storage medium .

In effect these carry traders are getting a 'margin' call from the JCB and the ECB.

---

All this in one day....

(JP) BOJ's Fukui says the BOJ will raise preemptively in small increments while assessing risks

(EUR) ECB's Bini Smaghi: Current interest rate level may push inflation over 2% threshold level - Says rates remain too accommodating

(AU) Australian PM Howard: RBA had no choice but to hike rates; Inflation is key to any more rate rises and RBA won't hike in next 3 to 4 months - Job market has very strong. - Drought has impacted CPI. - RBA needs to consider next inflation data.

---

So the message is clear enough.
Risk lovers get out now!
But will they heed it?

ALOHA !!

To keep selling US debt the Fed will have to raise US interest rates at some point. Also just how ugly does US debt have to get before foreigners quit buying? When foreigners quit buying guess who will step in? No it won't be Warren Buffet or Bill Gates ...

Where's the cake?

Answer.

... China will start issuing its own debt en masse just like all growing ecnomies.

... It will link its policies with the Fed and the other central banks finally.

They will buy each others debt.

...just following up on previous post ...

This was just released by the BOJ and confirms my suspicions regarding an unwinding that may have started today...

Today 08:33pm
"EUR/JPY Very concerned about JPY carry trade increases; Cautious about possbile sharp unwinding of carry trade and the BoJ aims to prevent rapid build up in JPY carry trade - BoJ's Fukui - Trying to assess size of JPY carry trade positions and carry trade positions are increasing. - Aims to unwind carry trade in smooth manner. - Current conditions are conducive to JPY carry trade. - BoJ must communicate with markets about JPY carry trade"

Hi Rigdon

Indium is found mixed with other
metals in polymetallic deposits.

Check Argentex

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=agxm.ob

Tradesman - You may be right, but the key driver to this entire bull market in gold has been the $usd. The $usd has been in a bear market due to the rising current account deficit. The democrats gaining control virtually guarantees the current account deficit growing due to spending/printing, forcing the $usd lower and gold higher over time. This has been the story for a few years now and everything else is simply short term noise within a bull market. IMO, it is that simple and is not changing now.

.. speaking of the $usd...

It is at support today on the lower channel line of a running channel that started in early June.

If it breaks the channel tomorrow - that should pull in the momo gold players you mention.

If the $usd then rises back into the channel temporarily as often happens - this would shake them out and create the buying opportunity you suggested.

ALOHA !!

Tradesman posted:
"They will buy each others debt."

The point of being a reserve currency is that everyone else buys our debt. If we buy other country's debt then why bother with the reserve status, since that would impart that we have no confidence in our own fiat. The only way we can maintain our reserve currency status without the aid of foreigners buying our debt is to monetize our own debt via offshore accounts in the Caribbean and the UK. A great reason to get rid of the M3 ...

Let them eat twinkies ...

The unwinding of the JPY carry trade will take these markets down. Watch for volatility measures to start creeping up.

I think there were a lot of "agreements" out there that just dissolved into nothingness with Bush's lame duck status. Or are all these announcements pure coincidence?

Let's see if the coupon passes and TIOs end also. Yesterday BIG distribution day. No mysterious support came in per recent pattern.

Not to be a serial poster but it also may be prudent to start taking a look at accumulation zones for the drugs and pharmas. They were dumped HARD yesterday. I have LT exposure there so although I had a green day (T/Y gold!), that position got slaughtered.

Hello gentlemen, I appreciate your comments concerning this stuff as I am new here and learning much about the financial markets,now I have a Question, does anyone really know how much debt there is "out there" collectively (Japan,China,the oil exporters etc,) or are the figures all just estimates? If those dollars can't be spent here (US) anymore (the Dubai Port deal) than aren't we headed for a $ devaluation like we had in the early 70s or worse sometime soon? seems like hard assets have to be goin up soon.Thank you