Gold shares are typically priced at about 2.0 times Net Asset Value (NAV), running from a low of 1x to a high of 3x on average over the past 13 years. But NAV's are currently predicated on a $500 average long-term gold price, which I think is way too low considering the approx. average 10-pct growth of the world's money supply over the past couple years.

Based on my estimate of a sustainable $650 average gold price, the current Price/NAV would drop to below 1.50 for North American producers, and I think it ought to be trading at a 2.5x NAV, which translates to an upside of at least two-thirds higher than today's prices.

I think it's just a matter of time before the algo traders of Wall Street start plugging in these numbers, and producing higher price targets in their sell-side research.

This week the DJIA (Dow 30) set an all-time record high, but traders are starting to recognize that, due to fears that (what some call) the Credit Bubble may pop, leading to deflation, the central banks of the world are embarked on a policy of reflation.

As I see it, this situation is not much different than the Y2K situation where central bankers flooded liquidity into the marketplace, while moving rates higher in an attempt to contain the speculative use of that extra money.

The U.S. authorities have a problem raising rates (which is an inflation controller) without causing a collapse of housing prices, and new home building, which happens to generate about 30-pct of the U.S. GDP after those financial transactions work themselves through the system. That would surely put the U.S. into recession, and perhaps a severe one.

As it is, the U.S. GDP growth is weakening to a level below +2.0 pct annual growth, which is insufficient to meet trader's expectations for double digit earning's growth.

So while some people are calling for rates to go up and others for rates to be brought down, it's likely the Fed does nothing (only to be blamed later, whatever the result).

However, excessive money printing that does not lead to equivalent wealth creation is surely going to lead to inflation, and that's the biggest concern today of the international finance ministers and central bankers.

So, whenever this scenario arises " and the last time was in the 1970's " it's called Stagflation. It's a good term; there is nothing wrong with the terminology, but nobody likes the implications for stock or bond prices. Hence you hear the term used sparingly.

To anticipate what might happen to precious metal prices during Stagflation, all we can do is go back to the 1970's. In doing so, we can see wild gyrations as the market was hit by waves of rampant speculation followed by extreme (quick and to the point) repressive action by monetary authorities.

This year the marketplace has experienced a couple severe crackdowns by the monetary authorities. It doesn't take much selling of physical gold into the market by central bankers, and some moral suasion via their speechmaking, before the major precious metals traders start selling their futures positions, which leads to lower spot prices.

Yes, in spite of all the complaining some of us do (and I do my share), the monetary authorities have a job to do. They are not the ones in government that are creating debts and spending money at excessive rates, which is being hung out to dry by lack of private sector wealth creation and taxation (based on pre-inflated prices anyway).

Nevertheless, traders have a job to do as well. Our job is to discount a corporation's future revenues, cash flows, earnings, and dividends adjusted for inflation. When we do that, as I showed you for goldminers, I think we are seeing that hard assets (metal commodities and miners in particular) are under-valued and relatively soft assets (eg, paper money, debt, fixed income securities, and consumer lending companies) are over-valued.

Since the major market indexes in the leading U.S. equity markets (eg, Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 small caps) are mostly comprised of relatively soft asset plays (finance and technology sectors), I believe that equity prices are mostly over-priced.

(As an aside, technology is a soft asset play when earnings are not inflation adjusted.)

In fact, I have opined that equity prices appear to be maybe 25-pct over-priced. Maybe that's the high side, but so far we haven't yet seen the full stroke of a rapidly declining GDP in the U.S. " or in Canada as it turns out.

How many of you have read or considered the implications of the Bank of Canada governor David Dodge? Dodge, who unlike many central bankers in the world, does enjoy an extremely high performance and credibility rating by Canadian business people, investors and politicians of all stripes.

The top-of-the-fold headline of Canada's largest and most important financial newspaper on Friday reads: "Economic headwinds greater than feared: Dodge"; Knock, knock;

In presenting the BoC's Quarterly Outlook, he asks rhetorically: "Maybe we were just too optimistic".

He states, and we all have to consider this, that it takes time to adjust to relatively strong currencies and high energy prices. Productivity is not as high as many believe, and it's going to get worse until capital and labour resources get redeployed.

And so he says, Canada's once spectacular economic growth rate has already peaked and is going to drop. He warns that Canada's economy is tied to the hip with the U.S. economy, which he warns is slowing fast.

Dodge says that the deterioration in the U.S. housing market is hurting the auto, forestry and furniture sectors of Canada, and I say, by extension, the U.S.

Another point Dodge makes is that inflation is a serious threat and only appears to be low this month, and for a couple more maybe, because prices are being compared to a year ago when oil and gas prices spiked after Hurricane Katrina.

I think most of us can grasp what is happening in our world today. It is just a matter of time before we adjust, as David Dodge says. Part of that adjustment will be our ongoing sell-off of shares of companies that disappoint in the least with quarterly reporting of earnings and forward guidance.

The buy-side is fully aware that the sell-side has huge positions in these companies to protect, and that the sell-side is slow to ease their clients into the new reality that Stagflation is more than a dirty word.

So, let's see what happened in global capital markets this week. It was a lot more pleasant than my intro to this WIR.

Global Market Summary

International Equities: This was week where most, but not all, international markets were up. The Cdn and Indian markets were up strongly (~+2.2 pct each), followed by UK and to a lesser extent by Japan and China. Nothing remarkable, except that Friday was quiet.

U.S. Equities : The Nasdaq and to a lesser extent the Russell 2000 (small cap) were down, and the S&P500 and Dow 30 were up, but all were modest moves.

Dow 30 : There were 18 Dow stocks up and 12 down, whish is a four week string of modestly weakening percentage, but nothing remarkable.

U.S. Sector ETFs: There were 5 ETF's up and 5 down. SMH (Semi-conductors) again went top to bottom of the 10 ETF's I follow. But the Financials this week were 2nd worst. For a Bull market to exist, the semi's and the financial stocks have to be among the top 3 or 4 of these ten, almost every week. But more than anything, I believe that speculators are now day-trading these ETF's.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #3 (+1.3 pct); Good week; bad Friday
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #6 (-0.24 pct); Bad Friday, esp. goldminers
20: Industrials (XLI): #8 (-0.9 pct); CAT smashed (-14.5 pct) Friday
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #7 (-0.6 pct); Broad weakness
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #5 (+1.0 pct); KO huge day Friday (+4.1 pct)
35: Healthcare (IYH): #2 (+2.0 pct); JNJ (+6.3 pct), unsustainable
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #9 (-1.0 pct); Mortgage bank downgrades apopping
45: Tech (SMH chips): #10 (-5.3 pct); Was +4.5 pct week ago; SNDK!
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #4 (+1.1 pct); AT&T up +2.5 pct. Hmmm
55: Utilities (XLU): #1 (+3.1 pct); Money switching from Tech/Finance?

Bonds: Slightly worse slope to yield curve can't help mortgage lenders. Other than a little movement out of cash and into the long end, not much happening.

Commodities: $CRB was up +0.8 pct W/W thanks to oils and metals. $USD down and geopolitical issues up.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were up +1.4 pct W/W following on a small recovery of +0.9 pct. OPEC says "no mas!"

Gold: $GOLD and $SILVER were up +1.7 pct and 4.0 pct. A week earlier it was +1.6 pct and +2.7 pct respectively. A week ago I wrote: "The glitter is returning".

Goldminers: The miners were down very minimally this week thanks to a crushing they took on Friday. Hang in there. $USD headed south.

Forex: The $USD lost -1.0 pct W/W to close 86.31. Reversal after spike top at 87.30 week ago Friday. Now going to test 85.74 on trip south.

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Sector ETF:

Just five of the ten sector ETF's I follow here were up this week. A week ago, it was 9 of 10. I wrote: "Raise your stops. You'll need them; You are getting a wonderful opportunity".

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	35.61	0.22	0.62%	3.07%	4.06%	6.14%	11.28%	6.68%	14.46%	18.90%
IYH	66.98	0.32	0.48%	1.96%	1.81%	3.00%	5.26%	9.43%	7.67%	11.06%
XLE	54.70	-0.72	-1.30%	1.33%	3.81%	6.57%	3.80%	-0.96%	-6.53%	20.09%
IYZ	28.60	0.27	0.95%	1.13%	2.95%	2.84%	24.51%	14.95%	12.78%	29.59%
XLP	25.54	0.09	0.35%	0.95%	1.11%	0.31%	8.96%	4.29%	9.05%	11.58%
XLB	32.67	-0.19	-0.58%	-0.24%	2.16%	5.12%	5.66%	7.29%	-4.08%	24.32%
XLY	36.43	-0.05	-0.14%	-0.55%	1.56%	5.96%	10.39%	15.18%	7.37%	16.32%
XLI	34.26	-0.17	-0.49%	-0.87%	0.03%	5.81%	8.31%	7.00%	-1.69%	16.17%
XLF	35.12	-0.05	-0.14%	-1.04%	-0.23%	2.63%	9.07%	8.19%	5.91%	20.32%
SMH	33.62	-0.25	-0.74%	-5.30%	-1.03%	0.81%	-11.34%	11.84%	-12.10%	-2.15%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

I also go to Yahoo Finance to study ETF's, including the top ten holdings of each. When the RSI's for each start to top out (above 70) for all or most of the top 10, I say the longs should start thinking of selling that ETF.

Remember, you have o be head of the crowd. Being early means you miss the tops and the bottoms, but the objective here is to always try to stay on the right side of trend, and to rack up continuous gains without taking on too much risk.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Two weeks ago, XLE had dropped to last spot in my ETF performance. A week ago, it was up to #2, and this week, XLE was at #3.

XLE was up +1.33 pct to close at 54.70, which was pretty good considering it took a hit of -1.30 pct on Friday.

The price of $WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) closed Friday at 61.15 (up 85 cents and +1.4 pct W/W).

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron Texaco (CHV) were each was up +1.68 pct this week.

OPEC and Russia are indicating that oil prices will rise here (at least stop from falling below say $55), which gives a sense of sustainability to the higher prices, which means that the algo traders are factoring in higher prices for their Net Asset Value (NAV) calculations.

But, crude oil in the low 60's or mid-to-high 50's is probably mid-range for the foreseeable future.

Economic recession in the U.S. will contain speculator enthusiasm for another run to record high levels. I think a slowing economy for the next year will eventually be followed by a faster paced one that will drive prices higher in the long run, and I also believe that the $USD will continuously weaken, which will push the prices higher.

But, in the short to intermediate term however, I see economic storm clouds plus alternative fuels and lifestyle changes that will hold prices down " at least in the expectations of speculators.

So I'm staying neutral.

Besides it's getting harder tracking share prices to commodity prices these days; as major hedge funds are playing the markets like day traders; at least until there is a Bear market and the alpha chasers get chased themselves out of the business by clients who discover what they've been up to.

I can see the lawsuit writing on the wall. Can you imagine how many clients have been misled by hedge funds that are not being regulated like mutual funds, and where the managers just think that accredited accounts ought to have known better?

They'll argue that all they are doing is exploiting the rules and regulations, and that wealthy persons can afford to lose. Some, I suspect, will go to jail.

Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
STO	25.37	-0.05	-0.20%	6.42%	11.47%	7.64%	5.14%	-10.83%	-23.12%	23.16%
ECA	47.55	-0.53	-1.10%	3.59%	4.30%	6.14%	1.82%	-1.74%	-5.84%	-2.06%
SU	75.08	-1.81	-2.35%	3.56%	10.12%	11.53%	14.57%	-4.33%	-13.70%	50.88%
TOT	67.77	0.09	0.13%	3.12%	4.26%	5.81%	-47.90%	6.26%	-50.93%	-43.62%
CVX	65.28	-0.36	-0.55%	1.68%	2.54%	5.39%	10.49%	-0.06%	8.75%	17.09%
XOM	69.55	-0.18	-0.26%	1.68%	3.01%	7.15%	18.95%	8.25%	8.81%	25.86%
IMO	32.39	-0.33	-1.01%	1.19%	0.72%	-1.01%	-68.86%	-10.89%	-70.87%	-60.81%
CEO	83.36	-0.91	-1.08%	0.43%	2.76%	1.71%	20.48%	3.42%	-4.40%	35.11%
PBR	85.62	-0.76	-0.88%	-0.47%	5.07%	11.67%	14.59%	-0.04%	-11.62%	45.24%

STO +6.4 pct and SU +3.6 pct W/W are the two big winners of my watch list for the past two weeks (+11.5 pct and +10.1 pct respectively). Statoil and Suncor are both Cara 100 companies.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Thanks to a bad day Friday (-0.58 pct), the Basic Materials ETF (XLB) lost -0.24 pct W/W to close at 32.67. That's just 8 cents.

All the metals, including copper, silver and gold, were strong until Friday, where they were flat. The stocks, however, were soft on the week, and down sharply on Friday.

Typically the stocks lead the commodity prices, but in this trading environment I think you have to throw out those conventional rules, and focus on the tape. It would be nice to think trading will get back to normal, but with the largest capital funds in the world now operating like day-traders, the prospects of that are slim to nil.

Maybe we'll just have to stick to trading the Consumer Staples. Do you think?

Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RTP	211.21	1.81	0.86%	4.36%	13.81%	16.10%	11.86%	6.96%	-2.86%	40.69%
PD	98.79	0.81	0.83%	3.63%	16.83%	19.46%	32.30%	26.70%	13.16%	70.27%
BHP	41.85	-0.26	-0.62%	3.46%	11.57%	13.97%	19.57%	-0.14%	-6.29%	42.30%
AA	27.46	-0.07	-0.25%	2.96%	-1.01%	-0.11%	-8.16%	-8.38%	-21.02%	17.55%
ACH	17.56	-0.22	-1.24%	2.81%	-72.85%	-72.96%	-77.88%	-74.86%	-83.52%	-70.52%
N	76.27	0.41	0.54%	1.41%	0.36%	0.13%	76.27%	6.67%	41.27%	87.67%
RIO	24.00	-0.44	-1.80%	0.63%	8.06%	19.76%	11.63%	7.38%	-2.95%	30.29%
GGB	14.50	-0.18	-1.23%	0.00%	4.77%	11.97%	-16.71%	-1.43%	-43.38%	15.54%
PKX	67.88	0.38	0.56%	-0.13%	4.77%	7.56%	35.08%	14.53%	-0.69%	39.53%
NUE	54.05	-0.65	-1.19%	-1.33%	5.73%	15.07%	55.85%	7.80%	-3.59%	99.08%

With share prices jumping in this sector a week ago, I wrote: "M3 jumping; metals and steels rocketing; and Bonds don't like it; Phelps Dodge was up +12.7 pct, Rio Tinto +9.1 pct, BHP Billiton +7.8 pct, CVRD +7.4 pct, Nucor Steel +7.2 pct were leaders. Agnico-Eagle was up +7.7 pct W/W. Even Newmont was up +4.1 pct."

This week was quiet. Time to do your homework.

Download Morgan Stanley report that previews the 3Q performance of the Steels.

Download Merrill Lynch North American Miners Weekly Report.

I'm going to keep the Miners "Under the Microscope" this week because you need to be focusing on the best quality ones that are starting to move back into their Bull phase.

The steels are expected to do ok too, but without a fast growth economy, I'm not going to try working 48 hours a day to report on those too. (lol)

A week ago I wrote:

"I told you the store was coming to you. But Tuesday and Wednesday this coming week brings the arrival of a lot of U.S. inflation data. If it's too high, then interest rates are going up, which could halt the Old Bull in its tracks, and hurt the metals prices as well.

No matter; there are so many problems with the Credit Bubble, the U.S. authorities will have to pump more money into the system, and that my friends is a good thing for hard assets and a bad one for paper assets (money and bonds).

Hard money will do well, and, because of growth in China through into 2009, so too will copper, nickel and probably steel. Sooner or later, the issues plaguing aluminum will be worked out.

But you know, aluminum doing well would mean that U.S. industry is doing well, and that wouldn't look too good for the "soft" landing story that is being spun these days, and if the economy is cranking, then interest rates will be rising, and that leads to unfathomable problems.

So the storytellers have to keep their stories straight."

Value Line did their quarterly report on Alcoa (AA) this week.

(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

Apparently up to 40-pct of the cost of production is due to energy, so I have to wonder why they don't install their own nuclear power plant; and trade aluminum for uranium?

Yes my friends, Alcoa workers in Pittsburgh can blame low prices on the fact Americans are not buying enough houses, but also too many cars from Japan.

Too bad too that China is producing enough aluminum to meet the needs of their growing nation. What's going to happen when Boeing starts manufacturing airframes in China in order to get 787 sales, plus cheap labor, and heath plan cost avoidance? And given that the pension funding obligation to their workers is underwater by $2 billion, maybe outsourcing can solve that problem too? (lol)

I wonder, when the Chinese factory worker starts speculating on second and third homes, do you think that GE Capital is going to be there to meet their needs, or will that be handled by the People's Wal-Mart Bank?

A red, black and gold no-fee Wal-Mart Discover credit card for every Chinese family. Fees paid by the American consumer. How glorious would that be?

No worker breaks, no FDIC, friendly Uncle Mao Stores, and the People's Bank; back up the truck the minute I see an IPO for Wal-Mart China floated on the Shanghai and/or Hong Kong stock exchanges.

You know, I never did figure out the location of Bentonville Arkansas anyway; it might as well have been Beijing AR (the AR stands for Autonomous Republic, like Xinjiang/Uygur, which btw is up near Friedlandville).

Those things I know, but Bentonville? That was a mystery.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was down -0.87 pct W/W to 34.26, so we're back to where we were two weeks ago.

All that transport, but no place to go.

The Dow Transport Index is still breaking out, but still really isn't on fire. The 4550 index resistance level was a walk over, but can this index (presently at 4706) test the May 10 cycle high (next technical resistance) of 5000? It couldn't do it when it almost got that high at the end of June.

Clearly the Transports kicked into high gear after oil prices started to fall, but isn't that just a reaction to lower costs (which might be temporary) rather than a reflection of the Transports growing on the back of a strengthening economy?

If $WTIC hangs in here (ie, the low 60's), and the economy boom that Kudlow speaks of is not really real, I can't image new highs being set. In that event, I have to believe that Dow Theory traders aren't going to be happy.

You see, they need transports to confirm industrials. But what you're getting is share buy-backs confirming industrials.

---

Yes, I think traders have to watch this picture of the Dow Transports, especially now that Crude Oil is back above 60.

The Dow Transports Average ETF is IYT. At the Amex.com website, you can see the list of holdings. Fedex is the key player at this point.

Here's the comparative chart with the Dow Jones Transports (_DJT) (in blue) versus Fedex (FDX) (in red). I'm color blind, so I guess at this.

A week ago, I wrote: "Can FDX lead the Index up through 5000? Hmmm, FDX has moved from $98.03 to $113.98 for a gain of +16.3 pct in just 35 trade days (1½ months)."

Now it's at $116.20, up another $2.22, which seems to be a pill looking for a headache.

That's a gain of +15.5 pct in 40 trade days; but the sharp up and down moves this week were giving me a headache.

Anyway, traders, keep your eye on Fedex. It's either going to fly high (ie, soft landing) or crash. And if it crashes, I want to be moving all my long positions to short ones.

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Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MMM	78.47	2.07	2.71%	4.07%	3.32%	7.39%	-0.81%	10.37%	-5.00%	4.77%
TYC	29.36	-0.25	-0.84%	0.79%	5.12%	8.50%	-0.94%	16.23%	12.71%	14.20%
BA	81.74	-0.67	-0.81%	-0.79%	-2.32%	5.81%	16.21%	1.30%	-4.40%	21.46%
CBE	89.05	-1.27	-1.41%	-1.14%	1.66%	7.87%	20.53%	2.95%	-3.54%	29.68%
GE	35.47	0.19	0.54%	-1.42%	-1.85%	3.11%	0.28%	9.07%	3.96%	4.69%
HON	41.70	0.12	0.29%	-2.14%	-1.44%	3.63%	11.32%	13.87%	-4.86%	25.00%
UTX	65.02	0.02	0.03%	-2.23%	-0.60%	4.37%	15.02%	7.92%	1.26%	25.47%
ERJ	41.48	-1.08	-2.54%	-2.81%	0.31%	4.56%	5.65%	20.41%	9.59%	8.25%
CAT	59.00	-10.02	-14.52%	-14.59%	-13.30%	-6.01%	2.08%	-14.59%	-24.33%	9.20%

It's surprising to me that on another strong week, GE and BA were down (-1.4 pct and -0.8 pct respectively W/W), which means that BA and GE are down in two good market weeks -1.9 pct and -2.3 pct.

As I wrote last week: "This is Gnome country. Just what are those people thinking?"

Ah, they gave us back our MM&M's; up +4.1 pct on the week, but took the meow out of the cat " CAT plunged -14.5 pct on Friday.

Does anybody remember October 19, 1987? All 30 of the Dow stocks were like that; only worse in many cases.

Could happen again you know. They say that the cat is an intelligent animal; knows when to jump first. (lol)

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down -0.55 pct W/W to close at 36.43. That's only 20 cents, which isn't going to stop Kudlow from telling us the financial health of the American consumer is the greatest story never told.

Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	30.53	0.05	0.16%	2.48%	3.70%	16.93%	-31.33%	23.80%	-16.97%	-22.02%
JCP	74.86	0.47	0.63%	1.33%	5.32%	12.42%	32.61%	18.00%	18.41%	48.41%
DIS	31.45	-0.14	-0.44%	1.09%	0.35%	4.55%	28.89%	8.00%	15.03%	36.98%
CCL	48.08	0.07	0.15%	0.27%	-0.60%	7.56%	-11.89%	20.96%	1.01%	1.35%
TM	115.60	0.79	0.69%	-0.52%	1.22%	8.03%	8.19%	16.96%	1.00%	32.08%
NKE	88.60	-0.80	-0.89%	-1.12%	0.51%	2.59%	3.08%	11.31%	6.97%	6.49%
SBUX	37.44	-0.34	-0.90%	-1.29%	-2.42%	10.09%	21.28%	12.06%	-3.65%	38.21%
WHR	87.67	0.06	0.07%	-1.31%	1.80%	-0.09%	6.05%	14.23%	-3.39%	17.88%
BC	32.22	-0.26	-0.80%	-1.50%	1.00%	4.92%	-21.07%	15.07%	-19.53%	-12.35%

A week ago I wrote: "Did you hear Cramer touting Whirlpool (a Cara 100)? The WHR stock is now at $88, up +16.0 pct in three months, and Cramer is telling you it's soon going to $100. Houses aren't being built (as fast), but The People are running out to buy dishwashers?.. I think the message here from CNBC is that there is no recession coming. (lol)"

Well back up the truck Jimmy; you can haul those carcasses away. No new dishwashers for poor people. WHR dropped -1.31 pct this week, to close at $87.67.

I see that EBAY was up +2.5 pct W/W. I gather that PayPal is really working out. Maybe Skype will one day as well. I like EBAY management.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

This week the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained +0.95 pct to close at 25.54. But something very significant happened in the broad market this week that all of you ought to recognize. Quickly go back up to the Hourly (60Minutes) data charts above for all ten sector ETF's.

What is obvious is that this week the market split into two segments. The typically aggressive growth sectors (technology, financial, energy, basic materials, industrials, and consumer cyclicals) got sold off. But the typically defensive, value-oriented sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecom and utilities) all lifted strongly.

Because there are not too many of the defensive, value-oriented stocks in the Nasdaq and Russell small caps, those indexes were down on the week. But the net impact on the DJIA and S&P500 was a very small gain.

When you combine this evidence with the roll-over of long-dated bonds into T-Bills this past month (although nothing much happened on that front this week), you'll see that trader sentiment has turned defensive.

Market prices are not random; they move in cycles and trend patterns like schools of fish. As part of the food chain, they move together toward the food (ie, the rewards), and away from the predators (ie, the risks).

This week the usual pattern split in two. We'll have to watch to see how this plays out. For a clue, I look at the Hourly data RSI-7 of the distinct groups.

In this case, the four defensive sectors have an average Hourly RSI-7 of 79.5 and the six aggressive sectors have an average Hourly RSI-7 of 42.7. All 4 of the "defensives" are in the Distribution Zone (above 70) and 2 of them (Utilities and Telco) are very high risk, whereas none of the "Aggressives" are presently in the Accumulation Zone (below 30) and 3 of the 6 are high risk because their RSI values are between 43.9 and 51.5 and falling.

Bear in mind that I am looking at Hourly data -- It changes quickly. But when I look at the Daily, Weekly and Monthly RSI values and watch them roll over after hitting peaks in the Distribution Zone, I sense that traders are getting tired of pushing and being pushed into higher stock prices.

Beyond all the external forces " geopolitics, domestic politics, exogenous events, and so forth -- the market is still "us". And "our" behaviour is instinctively defined by social aspects (crowds, tribes, communities, and so forth) because we rely on the help of others for meeting our survival needs.

As I interpret this RSI data, traders are still inclined to bullish thinking (ie, accumulation), but there is now a greater likelihood that the defensive sector has reached a peak than the others have reached a trough. So on Monday, I'll be watching to see how this plays out.

I'll be watching the leading stocks of the Utilities, Telcos, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples sectors (vs the other sectors) to see if this move to defensive positions continues.

Now, everything is relative, so if these defensive stocks start to decline in price, I would look to see if the slack is being picked up by their counterpart aggressive sectors " particularly the non-commodity sensitive sectors like the Techs, Financials and Consumer Cyclicals.

Let's spend some more time on the Consumer Staples. As Bear markets develop, this is where new money (of the Fund managers) tends to be directed. The Utilities are now split between the regulated and the unregulated parts, and the unregulated parts are very economically sensitive. So, if the North American economy continues to slow, it will affect those stocks. And the healthcare sector has too many litigation and government policy issues affecting it to consider as a homogenous leading indicator group. Telco, too, is now involved in plans to take over the Internet, to fight between Ma Bell and Cable, to consolidate in its own industry so that legacy technology and unproductive parts can be dispatched, and so forth. So Telco has its own issues to deal with.

But Consumer Staples is all about Consumer demand and their resources to pay for that demand. It truly is a sector that can be studied by looking at the big picture if you are interested to see how money managers are directing their AUM (assets under management).

By going to the Month charts below, you can see that while the broad market started a Bear in the Spring (1Q and 2Q) of 2000, where technology was getting smashed, the Consumer Staples did wonderfully well.

So too did the Financials, but that was mostly because the Fed was in a panic and dropped rates off the cliff. That type of Fed action can't happen this time because of the inflation concern by monetary authorities everywhere.

So don't be looking for the Financials as a place to park money during any onslaught in equity markets. If it does happen, my preciousss gold and silver miners will be over the moon.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KO	46.75	1.84	4.10%	6.20%	4.45%	6.27%	14.30%	6.64%	11.82%	10.99%
WFMI	64.75	0.05	0.08%	3.17%	5.39%	9.21%	-16.02%	12.16%	-0.58%	-3.08%
WMT	49.37	0.88	1.81%	1.88%	2.17%	2.24%	6.79%	11.47%	6.40%	8.27%
DEO	72.50	0.31	0.43%	1.54%	0.75%	1.23%	21.73%	8.45%	10.15%	25.54%
PG	62.68	0.18	0.29%	0.89%	-0.65%	1.41%	6.63%	10.72%	11.41%	13.61%
PEP	62.81	-0.01	-0.02%	0.58%	-2.50%	-2.29%	5.10%	0.53%	9.62%	8.91%
MO	79.67	-0.52	-0.65%	0.05%	1.34%	-3.22%	6.25%	0.73%	13.75%	9.59%
BUD	47.32	-0.68	-1.42%	-1.44%	0.51%	0.36%	8.36%	1.35%	11.08%	11.74%
WAG	43.58	-0.27	-0.62%	-1.80%	2.16%	-7.08%	-3.99%	-7.57%	1.77%	-3.33%
ABV	44.60	-0.90	-1.98%	-4.58%	-3.04%	2.06%	15.72%	11.98%	-5.49%	34.05%

Coca Cola, Whole Foods Markets, Wal-Mart and Diageo all did well this week. The latter three are Cara 100 companies. Coke is a hit (KO pun intended) when the $USD is weak and about to go down.

Not all Cara 100 companies performed well in the stock market this week, as the table below shows. AmBev Bebidas, which has enjoyed a terrific 12-months (+34.1 pct) was hammered (-4.6 pct W/W). Maybe Credit Suisse dumped their shares?

But all in all I like the GICS 30 sector for the market environment, particularly for conservative, long-term oriented accounts. I'd just stay away from the stocks that are involved in heavy litigation, or have been subject to over-hyped promotion in the past year, eg, Fast Eddie's SHLD.

Here are the links to my seven Cara 100 picks in this space. I put Starbucks (SBUX) into the Staples space because I think it (and Tim Horton's in Canada) is a social phenomenon linked to the small business paradigm and the big city urbanization paradigm and the digital mobility paradigm, where handy physical meeting places are needed and as a result quite popular.

In other words, Starbucks is more an essential network hub than it is a place for individuals and families to go for food and drink.

Isn't it amazing how some (Starbucks/Tim Hortons/Whole Food Markets) got it (ie, these paradigm shifts), and others (McDonalds, Burger King, and Wendy's) did not.

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Companhia de Bebidas [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(ABV: Yahoo Finance file)
(ABV: StockChart chart)
(ABV: Investertech chart)
(ABV: ADVFN Financial Data)
(ABV: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Diageo plc (ADR) [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(DEO: Yahoo Finance file)
(DEO: StockChart chart)
(DEO: Investertech chart)
(DEO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DEO: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Procter & Gamble Co [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Starbucks Corp [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(SBUX: Yahoo Finance file)
(SBUX: StockChart chart)
(SBUX: Investertech chart)
(SBUX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(SBUX: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Walgreen Company [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(WAG: Yahoo Finance file)
(WAG: StockChart chart)
(WAG: Investertech chart)
(WAG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WAG: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Whole Foods Market Inc [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(WFMI: Yahoo Finance file)
(WFMI: StockChart chart)
(WFMI: Investertech chart)
(WFMI: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WFMI: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Wal-Mart Stores Inc [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +1.96 pct W/W.

Unfortunately, the RSI-7 for the Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data is all between 74 and 80.

Some of these stocks are statistical aberrations, as one reader pointed out this weekend. He wrote: "Of note is JNJ. A Bollinger band analysis at 21 periods and 2.33 standard deviations shows that the close on Friday had less than a 1 percent chance of being that high, based on the last month's daily closing prices; SERIOUSLY overbought and over priced."

Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JNJ	68.62	0.58	0.85%	6.26%	5.47%	7.29%	11.34%	11.81%	17.86%	6.93%
NVS	60.62	0.53	0.88%	6.18%	4.72%	3.82%	13.37%	11.58%	6.82%	13.95%
BMET	35.05	-0.16	-0.45%	4.22%	4.94%	8.78%	-4.96%	13.21%	-7.93%	6.41%
GSK	56.20	0.24	0.43%	4.07%	3.48%	4.09%	10.28%	2.35%	5.76%	11.22%
UNH	50.70	0.05	0.10%	4.00%	-1.55%	3.53%	-17.87%	0.98%	1.16%	-11.22%
AET	40.33	0.42	1.05%	2.65%	0.02%	5.25%	-14.25%	2.75%	-14.61%	-5.17%
AMGN	73.89	0.83	1.14%	0.79%	-0.27%	4.23%	-8.05%	15.60%	7.85%	-0.28%
DNA	83.16	-0.79	-0.94%	0.51%	-0.05%	5.98%	-11.53%	5.37%	3.43%	-1.97%
PFE	27.68	0.00	0.00%	0.33%	-0.79%	-1.70%	16.40%	16.74%	10.94%	26.39%
BMY	24.49	-0.16	-0.65%	-0.24%	0.29%	-2.27%	5.38%	-4.49%	-0.81%	13.01%

When 5 of 10 stocks in any monitor are up over +4.0 pct in a single week, as they were a week ago, it pays to be attentive. These U.S. healthcare stocks (IYH) have enjoyed a +14.0 pct run in less than four months.

Contrary to some of the Talking Heads, it has less to do with rapidly improving corporate metrics than with traders taking a defensive posture.

I'm wondering though " although I have no opinions yet " about how a change of both houses of Congress (from Republican to Democrat) might affect this sector. As you know, healthcare is a divisive political issue.

No further comment from me because this is my week to be nice. (lol)

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) lost -1.04 pct W/W to close at 35.12.

Yes, many of the HB&B components (ie, the biggest investment banks) are raking in the profits from fees and gains from dealings with Private Equity and Hedge Funds, but much of the IPO business has been shifting to China/Hong Kong, and the trading volume in North America is starting to wane.

The corporate banking side though is where the real problems lie. The inverted yield curve is not helping. What these banks need is for the Fed to drop rates, but that's where my gold stocks come into play. If, as and when the Fed starts to drop rates, as they did in 2000, yes the Financials will do ok, but the precious metals (and inflation) will become another moonshot.

So these corporate and mortgage lending banks and near-banks are in a bit of a jam. They must pull in their horns by tightening their accommodative lending practices, and they have to start planning for the days when their staffs will be working overtime trying to dispose of real estate taken back under Power of Sale. Now is the time to increase their loan loss provisions (which hurts those essential earnings), or start to merge with banks that have a different mix of business.

So the analyst downgrades are starting because serious people can no longer ignore what's happening in this sector, which is that the housing market is in a state of disarray following too long a period of hype and accommodation by the current political Administration.

BTW, it's the small and mid-size bankers and their allies on Wall Street that are screaming at the Fed to drop the rates. If rates stay where they are, or heaven forbid start to rise, these bankers are looking down from the top of a long ski run; or, to be more accurate, let's say a 120-metre Olympic Games ski jump.

It's all about the landing.

Business Week magazine also says it's about imprudent lending practices of the largest banks and the declining credit ratings of their biggest clients. Clearly, many banks are in cahoots with their so-called "Private Equity" clients, and therein lies the problem: it's called "greed".

One of my readers says that this Business Week article addresses the ills of America. It's called "Gluttons at the Gate".

The article speaks to the rapid decline in credit ratings. Hear, hear!

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Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSR	59.15	-0.11	-0.19%	2.76%	6.25%	7.66%	10.87%	6.25%	1.01%	32.59%
MER	84.18	0.28	0.33%	0.69%	3.34%	7.76%	22.96%	19.49%	5.19%	36.52%
HBC	94.85	0.14	0.15%	-0.11%	1.25%	4.43%	16.12%	7.55%	9.50%	22.42%
MS	76.40	0.22	0.29%	-0.22%	2.67%	6.44%	30.71%	20.62%	17.57%	0.00%
DB	123.19	-0.39	-0.32%	-0.40%	-0.25%	4.24%	23.86%	13.00%	4.10%	37.70%
UBS	62.30	0.23	0.37%	-0.53%	2.60%	5.68%	26.24%	21.58%	9.64%	51.14%
LEH	77.07	-0.41	-0.53%	-0.85%	3.23%	8.75%	18.68%	24.05%	-0.72%	36.02%
C	49.91	0.04	0.08%	-0.93%	-2.23%	0.83%	1.26%	5.94%	3.33%	12.56%
GS	180.40	0.35	0.19%	-1.88%	2.70%	7.69%	39.99%	24.26%	7.03%	51.92%
JPM	47.12	0.25	0.53%	-2.16%	0.55%	0.64%	17.24%	9.63%	10.61%	35.60%

Most of the banks didn't do too well this week except for Credit Suisse that probably made some money by cleaning up their AmBev issues. I josh of course; $52 million pay-off is chump change to this Swiss goliath.

BTW, in the Goldcorp-McEwen courtroom, I chatted up a Credit Suisse buy side analyst from the U.S. who came to Toronto hoping (my words) to see a wink and a nod from Judge Sarah Pepall " one way or the other " but was disappointed. The analyst should have been here for the Stelco courtroom fiasco. Winks and nods in that one were just the start of it.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) got smashed this week, down -5.30 pct W/W to close at 33.62.

A week earlier, SMH "rocketed ahead +4.50 pct to $35.50; I don't think this action explains what might be happening by 1Q07."

I like many of these Chip companies, but I have been warning: Now is not the right time to buy them. It's still Chip & Dip time, as we saw this week with SanDisk.

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Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ADSK	35.08	0.15	0.43%	0.54%	-0.06%	-2.80%	-17.94%	12.08%	-18.29%	-19.54%
CSCO	24.58	0.41	1.70%	0.20%	2.03%	7.43%	40.86%	37.47%	16.88%	45.19%
ORCL	18.98	0.11	0.58%	-0.58%	4.40%	8.21%	50.63%	25.53%	34.13%	56.34%
CTSH	76.70	-0.77	-0.99%	-0.70%	2.66%	5.59%	51.31%	22.72%	19.97%	74.64%
INTC	21.35	0.29	1.38%	-1.39%	3.39%	11.96%	-16.50%	24.85%	9.77%	-9.61%
ADBE	38.26	-0.23	-0.60%	-1.90%	0.24%	3.24%	-0.67%	36.55%	1.54%	25.52%
INFY	50.68	-0.41	-0.80%	-2.59%	7.26%	9.96%	-37.00%	29.78%	-38.68%	-25.51%
SAP	49.49	-0.57	-1.14%	-4.24%	-2.75%	1.75%	7.70%	10.57%	-11.32%	13.56%
QCOM	37.92	-0.26	-0.68%	-4.82%	4.26%	0.16%	-13.82%	5.77%	-26.85%	-12.53%
SNDK	49.21	-12.63	-20.42%	-16.82%	-14.42%	-11.14%	-27.31%	22.78%	-24.92%	6.10%

A week ago, when the Techs were strong, and SMH was up +4.5 pct W/W, I wrote: "Bull markets and tech stocks go hand in hand, so these moves seem reasonable until you think that the rally started back in July. I mean in three months (13 weeks), SanDisk is up +43.1 pct, Adobe +38.8 pct, Cisco +36.1 pct, Oracle +35.4 pct, and Intel +22.4 pct; How much higher before the Gnomes suffer aneurisms?"

This week, SanDisk blew a tire. Blood all over the road. SNDK plunged -20.4 pct on Friday, and dropped from the radar screen, down -16.8 pct on the week.

Accidents like this happen in Bear markets, even to the best companies. It's called Reversion to the Mean, which is the basis of my confidence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up +1.13 pct W/W to close at 28.60.

But despite the nervousness on Friday over the Industrials and Financials and Techs like SNDK, did you take note that IYZ jumped up on the day +0.95 pct? That's quite a dance. The Hourly RSI-7 is now at 81.5.

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Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) gained +3.07 pct W/W to close at 35.61.

As I wrote a week ago: "I'm embarrassed because I wrote that XLU would not get over 33 in this Bull market." Actually, I should have added that I wrote that forecast a year or more ago, and that since May 10 2006, the game shifted from an upwardly charging Bull to one with a limp, soon to submit to the growling Bear. This is a time, especially in the regulated sector, where the Utilities do relatively well.

Of course, for the de-regulated parts, a sharp economic pullback will not be so kind to the companies, which is only a matter of time before traders recognize the writing on the wall.

So, when I remarked a week ago, "I can't recall a recession, or even a slowing economy, helping XLU", I was referring to the de-regulated side. The regulated side is in fact a beneficiary because that safety net is where AUM tend to flow.

I have been pointing readers to the new Yahoo Finance site for ETF's like XLU where you will discover lots of useful information. I like Yahoo for advancing their product like this.

I wish we could go back to the days of Grandpa's Utility sector. Then again, I have a liking for sailboats and not those Cigarette jet-powered things. You see I look at a boat as a place to relax, kinda like I look to the capital markets as a place to work/play the Money Game.

When it comes to money, I don't relax.

Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bonds:

Not a lot happened in the U.S. Treasury's this week.

The 30-year T-Bond yield dropped -3 basis points from 4.93 to 4.90 pct, which wasn't a lot. The 10-year and 5-year dropped -1 bp to 4.78 and 4.75 pct respectively. The yield on the 2-year lifted +1 bp from 4.86 to 4.87 pct, and the 3-month T-Bill yield moved up +3 bp from 4.91 to 4.94 pct.

I think the reflation story is starting to make the rounds, and that traders are increasingly starting to think that it may be a while for the Fed to drop rates.

The yield curve inverted a little more, so the banks didn't do all that well this week: XLF was down over 1.0 pct.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.94	4.95	4.91	4.79
6 Month	4.93	4.94	4.93	4.88
2 Year	4.87	4.86	4.86	4.81
3 Year	4.80	4.79	4.79	4.72
5 Year	4.75	4.74	4.76	4.69
10 Year	4.78	4.78	4.79	4.73
30 Year	4.90	4.91	4.93	4.84

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.51	3.54	3.54	3.53
2yr AAA	3.51	3.51	3.52	3.52
2yr A	3.56	3.61	3.59	3.59
5yr AAA	3.62	3.62	3.61	3.57
5yr AA	3.62	3.62	3.61	3.60
5yr A	3.66	3.67	3.65	3.58
10yr AAA	3.77	3.77	3.77	3.73
10yr AA	3.76	3.76	3.76	3.69
10yr A	3.89	3.88	3.86	3.91
20yr AAA	4.19	4.18	4.20	4.09
20yr AA	4.18	4.18	4.16	4.11
20yr A	4.23	4.22	4.22	4.16

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.26	5.26	5.27	5.20
2yr A	5.32	5.31	5.33	5.26
5yr AAA	5.29	5.29	5.31	5.22
5yr AA	5.33	5.32	5.34	5.29
5yr A	5.40	5.40	5.43	5.36
10yr AAA	5.72	5.72	5.67	5.55
10yr AA	5.58	5.58	5.59	5.53
10yr A	5.65	5.64	5.66	5.61
20yr AAA	5.92	5.93	5.97	5.87
20yr AA	6.10	6.10	6.12	6.07
20yr A	6.08	6.07	6.11	6.05

Interest rates and bond yields.

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The Lehman TLT recovered a bit, going up +0.45 pct to close Friday at 87.55. The AGG was also up, +35 pct W/W to 99.44.

The Fannie and Freddie stories continue to fly however, particularly FNM, which jumped +1.17 pct W/W, while FRE was basically flat. The major free-market mortgage lender (CountryWide), however, dipped -3.19 pct on the week, which means that CFC is now up just +0.69 pct YTD, which with dividends is not going to produce an acceptable Total Return for your portfolio.

I wrote a week ago, "Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) gained +8.3 pct and +6.2 pct in the past four weeks. But interest rates are rising and oil prices are rising this week, so why did Freddie gain +1.6 pct and Fannie +1.1 pct? Do you think maybe the Fed is buying up all the FNM and FRE paper from small banks in order to help keep them afloat? Something's going on here that I don't understand."

YTD FNM is up +20.9 pct, while CFC is as I said up less than a single pct point. How is that possible when CountryWide Financial is a solid, well-managed company and Fannie Mae has been saddled with bad senior manager political appointees and a dubious accounting system? As I say, I don't understand it except to believe that govt fingers are at play.

I continue to opine that these two GSE's ought to be put entirely into the private sector to compete directly with CountryWide.

---

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	58.92	-0.08	-0.14%	1.17%	2.24%	10.11%	20.89%	21.09%	11.63%	30.35%
TLT	87.55	-0.09	-0.10%	0.45%	-0.82%	-2.30%	-4.61%	2.41%	3.84%	-3.36%
AGG	99.44	-0.03	-0.03%	0.35%	-0.09%	-0.62%	-1.19%	1.39%	1.22%	-1.37%
IEF	82.13	-0.02	-0.02%	0.15%	-0.57%	-1.36%	-2.11%	1.47%	1.73%	-1.83%
SHY	80.06	0.03	0.04%	0.10%	-0.02%	-0.30%	-0.32%	0.41%	0.29%	-0.48%
FRE	68.42	-0.48	-0.70%	0.06%	1.66%	6.62%	4.78%	19.85%	13.05%	16.03%
TIP	99.22	-0.01	-0.01%	-0.12%	-1.17%	-1.78%	-3.71%	-0.87%	-0.48%	-4.50%
CFC	35.20	0.36	1.03%	-3.19%	-2.14%	0.43%	0.69%	-10.00%	-5.98%	11.36%

From this stock performance table, you wouldn't know there was any problem in the U.S. housing market. "But there is a problem in the mortgage lending business in the U.S., and it's going to get a lot worse. I have noted the increasing number of Wall Street downgrades.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

The $CRB index grabbed a small gain of +0.77 pct W/W to close at 305.74, but on Friday was down -0.72 pct.

The $CRB index weakness Friday did not come from oils ($WTIC was up +1.07 pct on the day and metals were flat). I didn't check the full CRB list to see where the loss came from on Friday.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Oil:

$WTIC gained +1.41 pct to close Friday at 61.15. There was a gain on Friday of +1.07 pct, so Friday again made the week. Bond traders weren't overjoyed on Friday, and sold them off during the day.

For $WTIC, the 50-Day Moving Average is 65.57, while the 200-Day MA is still 68.19. This is the technical support level to watch. If Crude Oil was to fall to the 50-day MA (65.57) on the near futures, traders would say that Crude has finally broken down without that necessarily being the case.

Just because oil prices might drop down a notch doesn't mean they would be collapsing, and that the housing bubble would still not be popping.

I am sticking to my Stagflation perspective until the econ data tells me otherwise. That means I expect to see Crude Oil stay in the 55-65 trading range.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

Today, the 200-day MA for $GOLD is 601.82 and the 50-day MA is at 601.47. And the current price ($602.90) is sitting right on top of these technically important levels.

Yes, I said on top. ABOVE both!

It's been a while.

But I'm now going to show you that the metals rally I spoke of in the past two weeks is starting to take effect: the current price of the precious metals complex plus copper and nickel, are all ABOVE the 50/200-day MA's (except $PLAT).

Finally. Now, if I'm right, that cyclical phase will extend and push prices further north.

But, while the battle goes on, I "continue to believe that the next Bull phase in the gold market will be on the back of a sliding $USD, and that $GOLD will move back over $700, and probably (as I see it) over $800. I also see that happening sooner than later " say within 12 months."

That's partly because of demand-supply economics.

Last week I wrote: "When I look into the future of these gold miners, I can see a lot of new but small mines coming on-stream, but the winding down of some major producers. The net effect will likely be a declining gold production over the next 5 to 8 years; So all in all, I feel more comfortable investing in the precious metals industry; Much the same is true for base metals, but gold and silver has for me the reality that to many people of the world this is money. They horde the physical stuff because paper money is useless at times, and there will always be a value to gold and silver."

Readers have asked what I think of the work of economists and cycle analysts like Kondratieff and Juglar and so forth. In a nutshell, I don't think anybody can refute trend and cycle theory, and that's why you see so much of it in my writing.

There are times when there are super-cycles that favour hard assets and others that favour financial assets. Typically it is war-time (ie, the destruction of wealth) that introduces the hard asset super-cycle and then, following a period of adjustment, capital and labor is redeployed (like Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge explained this week) that puts the advantage with leveraged financial assets.

In the past century there have been three super-cycles that have favored hard assets " 1929-1949, 1966-1982 and 2000-present (and likely to go for anywhere from 16 to 20 years). That's a debatable statement, but one nonetheless I strongly believe.

Most traders are short-term thinkers and tacticians, so they can't get their head around cycles concepts like those introduced by economists such as Kondratieff, Kuznets, Schumpeter and Juglar.

Which of these economists has produced the most important academic work? Isn't that like asking which of the Great Master painters or opera singers are the best? There is too much subectivity involved.

But I do think a lot of the Kitchin business cycle. I also believe in the convergence of cycles of different duration, which combine to form what some people refer to as a super-cycle.

I think we are today in a super-cycle that favors hard assets. The principal driver is the rapid development of what is called the BRIC emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).

Without trying to offend, I also think there is too much marketing by certain parties that Kondratieff or Eliott or whatever is the most important. They are all important, and traders need to appreciate the fundamentals of each or else gaining an appreciation of the big picture is very difficult.

If you are interested in studying how cycles and seasonality effects have affected equity markets in the past 100 years, this report will be helpful. Download UBS Aug 31 report on Seasonality and Super-cycles.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER had a terrific week, going up +3.98 pct to close at 12.15.

The 200-day MA $SILVER is 11.31 and the 50-day MA is 11.75. So the current price (12.15) is ABOVE both the 50/200-day MA. A week ago, I pointed out the it had moved avove the 20—day MA, which I said was important.

Now you will see that, except for $PLAT, all the precious metals and copper are in that position. Blue sky ahead, I think. Once $PLAT moves up to about 1150, I'll feel as comfortable as one can get.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT was up +1.96 pct W/W to 1094.40.

The 50-Day MA is now 1181.66 and the 200-Day MA is 1147.72, so $PLAT still has some work to do to get above the technical resistance.

PM traders ought not feel comfortable until all four of the major precious metal groups are above their 200-Day MA. But that day is close at hand.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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A week ago I wrote: "$PALL, like $SILVER, is a leading indicator of the PM complex." And this week you saw that $SILVER is up +4.0 pct W/W.

This week, $PALL gained +9.18 pct to close at 337.00.

The 200-day and 50-day Moving Averages are 324.51 and 325.99 respectively, so $PALL is now in the blue sky.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +4.02 pct to close at 351.90, which puts $COPPER now above both 50/200-day MA's.

The 50-day MA is 343.77, and the 200-Day MA is 304.43, so $COPPER is clearly in a Bull phase.

As I say, "Generally, I think the enormous growth in the emerging markets will continue to place more demand on the copper market than the miners can meet with supply. So I am a Bull on copper."

I'm also a Bull on Nickel and Uranium.

---

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GG	23.13	-0.70	-2.94%	1.76%	6.25%	2.30%	-4.42%	-16.07%	-26.27%	31.35%
AEM	32.60	-0.65	-1.95%	1.56%	9.40%	7.27%	47.91%	-3.89%	-3.12%	150.77%
GLG	38.53	-1.06	-2.68%	1.56%	5.79%	1.93%	29.51%	11.75%	9.15%	99.43%
ABX	30.02	-0.65	-2.12%	0.77%	2.95%	2.49%	4.16%	4.56%	1.83%	18.05%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	17.50%	-8.22%	2.77%	58.07%
MDG	24.04	-0.79	-3.18%	-0.74%	-0.62%	-0.78%	0.33%	-13.06%	-20.69%	24.17%
KGC	12.23	-0.35	-2.78%	-1.21%	4.71%	2.69%	23.66%	11.08%	9.10%	87.58%
NEM	42.46	-0.87	-2.01%	-1.78%	2.24%	-3.02%	-25.69%	-18.35%	-23.39%	-1.89%
GFI	16.96	-0.34	-1.97%	-3.42%	-5.04%	-5.09%	-11.99%	-23.33%	-28.89%	29.96%
BVN	25.25	-0.51	-1.98%	-3.44%	2.68%	-7.98%	-14.58%	-1.79%	-4.68%	-9.63%

Three weeks ago I gave you the heads up regarding the metals, including the PM's: "Time to study the companies and wait for the good ones to come to you." Two weeks ago, I added: "I hope you were waiting. Many of the good ones are down 18 to 20 pct in the past 4 weeks."

A week ago, Phelps Dodge was up +12.7 pct, Rio Tinto +9.1 pct, BHP +7.8 pct, Agnico-Eagle +7.7 pct, CVRD +7.4 pct and Nucor +7.2 pct; Why even Goldcorp, Glamis Gold, Kinross and Newmont gained more than +4.0 pct this week.

Well, except for Friday, this week would have been another real good one for the goldminers. Unfortunately, Friday is part of the trading week.

Almost all the gold stocks were down on Friday. Given that we're just a couple weeks away from voting day in America, I'll overlook that situation.

But Friday's big losses in the goldminers " despite the metals not coming off " did hurt the weekly performance. As it is, about half did well and the rest did not.

Let's see how this goes next week. As I see it, gold and goldminers are a defensive play, just like Consumer Staples.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

I spent a lot of time on these Goldminers through the week (and will next week) because this is the sub-sector to be positioned for when the $USD runs into serious "issues".

This week, $XAU was down -0.19 pct W/W and -2.08 pct on Friday to close at 128.79. The 50/200-day MA's are 134.12 and 139.83, so the shares are well below the metal prices.

That will change once traders widely catch on to the reflation scenario being played out today.

GDX was down -0.06 pct W/W and -1.62 pct on Friday to close at 35.77.

XGD was down -0.26 pct W/W and -2.62 pct on Friday to close at 70.00.

Halloween is coming, and maybe that'll scare me. But Friday didn't.

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Forex:

The PM complex is going to hold up well as long as the $USD doesn't.

The $USD had a terrible week, going down -0.95 pct to close at 86.31. Friday showed a modest gain.

The 50-Day MA is 85.74 and the 200-Day MA is 87.08.

So, $USD could not get up through the technical resistance of the 200-day MA. But you knew that weeks ago, right? (lol)

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) gained +0.81 pct W/W to close at 126.16.

As I say, "I still think the Euro will get to 130 and beyond".

The British Pound was jumping. It gained +1.45 pct to close at 188.39. That is a major move.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen recovered this week a bit, gaining +0.78 pct to close at 84.23.

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar was very strong this week, gaining +1.10 pct to close at 88.90.

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equities:

It is extremely important for traders to see the critical long-term Moving Average (MA) support levels because I feel that when they are violated on the downside, there is going to be a lot of pain in the average (bullish, long-oriented) portfolio.

Similar to 2000-2002.

Maybe even like 1987, heaven forbid.

As I wrote previously, "Traders can take a Bullish action with a Bearish attitude, you know. At times, it is needed, so you don't become complacent. This is one of those times."

The international markets are key to your confidence level. If, as and when they fall through technical support, along with the U.S. equity markets, then you are going to have to face some serious decisions: Hold or Sell.

Most people cannot bring themselves to sell, so I'm trying to build a case for helping all traders get over the psychological hump.

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	46.93	0.03	0.06%	2.24%	6.90%	10.95%	13.71%	15.31%	-15.61%	36.58%
EWC	24.32	0.03	0.12%	2.23%	3.18%	3.80%	8.33%	5.65%	-1.14%	24.40%
EWU	22.78	0.08	0.35%	1.74%	3.31%	4.93%	18.89%	10.31%	8.06%	27.91%
EWJ	13.79	-0.01	-0.07%	1.03%	0.66%	4.47%	-1.15%	8.07%	-6.13%	19.91%
FXI	84.96	0.05	0.06%	1.02%	3.48%	5.28%	34.88%	11.76%	4.53%	47.53%
IEV	99.43	0.38	0.38%	0.97%	2.63%	4.09%	19.12%	12.17%	8.31%	30.97%
SPY	136.84	0.03	0.02%	0.15%	1.36%	4.08%	8.00%	9.62%	4.35%	16.29%
EWZ	41.23	-0.18	-0.43%	-0.79%	3.70%	14.02%	18.37%	9.95%	-5.04%	42.07%
QQQQ	42.00	0.10	0.24%	-1.01%	1.42%	5.34%	1.67%	16.41%	-1.18%	9.63%
TRF	68.40	0.40	0.59%	-1.58%	3.56%	9.35%	26.67%	4.27%	-15.66%	48.53%

Russia Templeton Fund (TRF) a week ago gained +5.22 pct, but this week lost -1.58 pct W/W. Russia is a world-leading producer of natural resources. When oil and metals prices boom, so too does Russia's equity market.

The FXI of China was up +1.02 pct W/W.

The India Fund (IFN) had another terrific week, going up +2.24 pct W/W, which followed a week ago Friday when it was up +3.68 pct! So, that's quite a stretch of six trading days.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), closed at 13.79, up +1.03 pct.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Monthly data:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) was up +1.74 pct on the week, following a gain a week ago of +1.74 pct.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Monthly data:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC of Canada had a strong week, gaining +2.23 pct W/W to close at 24.32.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Monthly data:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

A week ago I wrote: "I'm thinking that Nasdaq could have a Double Top here. At least I'll be watching." This week Nasdaq was down -0.64 pct W/W to close at 2342.30.

The Russell 2000 small caps were also down, thanks to Friday's loss of -0.69 pct, closing at 762.13, which was a loss of -0.07 pct W/W.

The S&P500 and DJIA were up +0.22 pct and +0.34 pct, respectively. I covered this earlier: the four defensive sectors carried the freight. But for how much longer.

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I remain fixed on the lofty RSI-7 values for the Weekly and Daily for each of these major market indexes. They are, like, inflated.

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (72.1) and Daily RSI-7 (64.2)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (78.2) and Daily RSI-7 (73.9)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (77.4) and Daily RSI-7 (76.1)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (69.2) and Daily RSI-7 (62.4)

Note the progression W/W. Last week, these values were:

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (76.2) and Daily RSI-7 (80.9)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (77.5) and Daily RSI-7 (78.9)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (76.3) and Daily RSI-7 (83.1)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (69.6) and Daily RSI-7 (77.3)

Two weeks ago, it was:

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (70.7) and Daily RSI-7 (69.8)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (73.6) and Daily RSI-7 (70.8)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (73.4) and Daily RSI-7 (77.0)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (62.2) and Daily RSI-7 (63.8)

As I wrote two weeks ago: "I think you buy this market higher at your peril. If you are intent on buying, then try to find stocks that haven't much participated in the recent rally."

Remember, we trade prices. Watch the tape. Watch the technical support.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JNJ	68.62	0.58	0.85%	6.26%	5.47%	7.29%	11.34%	11.81%	17.86%	6.93%
KO	46.75	1.84	4.10%	6.20%	4.45%	6.27%	14.30%	6.64%	11.82%	10.99%
MRK	45.64	1.15	2.58%	5.67%	9.03%	8.56%	39.36%	22.36%	30.40%	69.54%
IBM	90.48	0.62	0.69%	5.11%	8.83%	11.41%	10.26%	19.87%	10.31%	8.79%
MMM	78.47	2.07	2.71%	4.07%	3.32%	7.39%	-0.81%	10.37%	-5.00%	4.77%
AA	27.46	-0.07	-0.25%	2.96%	-1.01%	-0.11%	-8.16%	-8.38%	-21.02%	17.55%
T	34.44	0.69	2.04%	2.50%	8.37%	4.68%	39.38%	26.15%	35.91%	52.80%
VZ	37.80	0.59	1.59%	2.02%	2.72%	1.89%	24.42%	17.21%	16.09%	29.45%
WMT	49.37	0.88	1.81%	1.88%	2.17%	2.24%	6.79%	11.47%	6.40%	8.27%
XOM	69.55	-0.18	-0.26%	1.68%	3.01%	7.15%	18.95%	8.25%	8.81%	25.86%
HPQ	39.38	-0.18	-0.46%	1.34%	4.40%	12.16%	36.88%	23.84%	16.47%	43.62%
DIS	31.45	-0.14	-0.44%	1.09%	0.35%	4.55%	28.89%	8.00%	15.03%	36.98%
GM	33.34	0.30	0.91%	1.06%	7.38%	8.88%	76.40%	16.78%	47.26%	17.48%
PG	62.68	0.18	0.29%	0.89%	-0.65%	1.41%	6.63%	10.72%	11.41%	13.61%
PFE	27.68	0.00	0.00%	0.33%	-0.79%	-1.70%	16.40%	16.74%	10.94%	26.39%
MSFT	28.43	0.11	0.39%	0.14%	1.97%	6.64%	5.92%	24.42%	5.18%	14.68%
MO	79.67	-0.52	-0.65%	0.05%	1.34%	-3.22%	6.25%	0.73%	13.75%	9.59%
AXP	58.04	0.07	0.12%	0.03%	2.56%	7.26%	10.38%	12.07%	10.68%	22.55%
DD	44.97	-0.03	-0.07%	-0.24%	0.04%	6.26%	4.44%	12.34%	1.38%	15.99%
BA	81.74	-0.67	-0.81%	-0.79%	-2.32%	5.81%	16.21%	1.30%	-4.40%	21.46%
C	49.91	0.04	0.08%	-0.93%	-2.23%	0.83%	1.26%	5.94%	3.33%	12.56%
AIG	66.48	-0.13	-0.20%	-1.17%	-0.81%	2.20%	-4.51%	11.71%	4.36%	6.03%
INTC	21.35	0.29	1.38%	-1.39%	3.39%	11.96%	-16.50%	24.85%	9.77%	-9.61%
GE	35.47	0.19	0.54%	-1.42%	-1.85%	3.11%	0.28%	9.07%	3.96%	4.69%
MCD	41.47	0.70	1.72%	-1.52%	3.39%	8.53%	23.72%	19.61%	18.22%	27.99%
HON	41.70	0.12	0.29%	-2.14%	-1.44%	3.63%	11.32%	13.87%	-4.86%	25.00%
JPM	47.12	0.25	0.53%	-2.16%	0.55%	0.64%	17.24%	9.63%	10.61%	35.60%
UTX	65.02	0.02	0.03%	-2.23%	-0.60%	4.37%	15.02%	7.92%	1.26%	25.47%
HD	35.99	0.08	0.22%	-2.47%	-3.10%	0.08%	-12.73%	5.92%	-11.81%	-9.05%
CAT	59.00	-10.02	-14.52%	-14.59%	-13.30%	-6.01%	2.08%	-14.59%	-24.33%	9.20%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line issued four reports on Dow 30 components on Friday: Alcoa, DuPont, Merck, and Pfizer.

All traders need to study this VL data and the analyst opinions, and track the reports from quarter to quarter. It is a terrific service " to be commended for the free access to these Dow 30 reports.

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Dow 30 list:

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 29: next one is due Dec. 29)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 22: next one is due Dec. 22)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 15: next one is due Dec. 15)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 6: next one is due Jan. 5)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 8: next one is due Dec. 8)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24) >

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 6: next one is due Jan. 5)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 29: next one is due Dec. 29)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 11: next one is due Nov. 10)

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Wrap up:

I have covered a lot of ground, purposefully staying away from the political commentating.

There is a lot of questions these days about the U.S. economic situation, hence I think this report will be popular with those who do not otherwise have access to it. Download Merrill Lynch Economic Report: "The Fed won't make it easy.

Here is the summary; it speaks to the issue of trying to fight both inflation and deflation forces at the same time, which is to say almost impossible.

Have a good weekend. I spent most of mine working, but for me that's what I like to do most. It's called "being prepared".

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BCara@BillCara.com