Here is the report "stockman" sent me this morning:

"Over the past 20 years how did the SPX perform Oct 18 (or following biz day if it fell on the weekend) through year end?

Note the average return of up years is 4X the average return of down years! And up years occur 75% of the years.

Think that's skewed due more to the late 80's or early 90's? This is the most recent 10 years (they are even better):

So in the most recent 10 year window this period (Oct 18 to Dec 31) had a 80% chance of being up and the average gain (9.67%) was 9X the average loss (-1.05%). Annualized return of 36.62%.

Those are pretty hard numbers to ignore. Now consider the other 290 days of the calendar:

Note the average return of up years is less than 1.5X the average return of down years! And up years occur only 60% of the years.

Think that's skewed due more to the late 80's or early 90's? This is the most recent 10 years (they are even worse):

So in the most recent 10 year window this period (Dec 31 to Oct 18) only had a 50% chance of being up and the average gain was about the same as the average loss. Annualized return of less than 1%."

Note: Data source MSN; SPX price data only, dividends not included

The opinions expressed are those of "stockman" who says they are subject to change without notice and that he makes no warranty as to the accuracy of the data he presents or the opinions he expresses here.

But I happen to vouch that he's a good guy.

In the Technical tab at the top of my website, you'll read about one of the significant drivers in my life.

The Book of Ecclesiastes, Chapter 3, pretty much says it all to me: "There is a time;"
1 To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
2 A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
3 A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
4 A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
5 A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
6 A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
8 A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace; ;;.

There is always a time when things are low and a time when they are high. Ecclesiastes acknowledges this.

Thanks "stockman" for your contribution.