« Trolling for retail investors, Wed., Oct. 18, 2006, 9:59 AM | Main | What's a Chipotle? Wed., Oct. 18, 2006, 12:20 PM »
October 18, 2006
Throwing in the towel? Get real!, Wed., Oct. 18, 2006, 11:46 AM
With all due respect "Jansing," I don't throw towels. But I do have three TV monitors playing and two of them I happen to respect. The other network I'm just pointing out is a shameful excuse for reporting.
And that one isn't ROBTV or BloombergTV.
Anyway, let' get to the facts: when RSI gets into nosebleed territory and TH's are beside themselves in ecstasy, you almost cannot lose by selling, shorting or distributing " whatever is your pleasure.
Ask yourself, when looking at today's charts, just who was fooling who?
The U.S. economy is in trouble. Housing permits are the story, which some people would like to ignore, but shouldn't. Payroll growth is collapsing " just watch the next couple reports, but that's another trend some people want to ignore.
There happens to be a huge deflation risk in the U.S. today, but the Fed would rather fight the inflation problem. Here's my take: the 10-year Treasury yield says it all.
If the yield goes up, it's saying that inflation is the problem, until it's not a problem because rates going higher will soon set off a housing crisis " read my lips: no new permits, which means a jobs crisis unless you think flipping hamburgers is going to pay the bills!).
If the Treasury yield falls off, that's saying that the economy is not going to be strong enough (say 1.5 pct growth) to give the level of (double digit 12 to 15 pct) earnings growth to which traders have come to expect.
So, choose your poison.
America is in a bind, and traders are told to close their eyes, and follow Wall Street's lead.
I'm afraid our rallying cry is going to be: "REMEMBER THE AMARANTH".
If you look at the RSI-7 values for the Monthly-Weekly-Daily, there will come a day when you can subtract these numbers from 100. When you see RSI values that low (or thereabouts), that's a mirror image of a terminating Bear market, which is when I like to BUY. Now, however, is the time to SELL.
A year from now, you'll be wondering why you didn't get the message. 'To every thing there is a season'.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 18, 2006 11:46:23 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
bb, try this: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV#
I also watch it on CATV prior to 7am.
Traders can watch B-TV from other parts of the world, like from the UK (English) or from other countries in different languages:
http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/tv/tv_index_europe.html
I'm no longer keen on energy-related stocks other than uranium. I think the others will mostly side-track, at best.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
October 18, 2006 3:16 PM [link]
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


2 questions
1. Where do you get Bloomberg TV (I can't find it on Bell Satellite)?
2. If I look at the overall market conditions, they do look ripe for a fall. I then look at the energy stock and Precision Drilling (for example) has been bouncing along with a RSI under 30 for several weeks. Do you think a long energy, short market strategy will work or do you think the market will drag the energy stocks down with it?
Thanks,
Posted by: bb
at
October 18, 2006 2:27 PM [link]