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October 19, 2006

South African goldminers under the microscope, Thurs., Oct. 19, 2006, 4:22 PM

The Big Four of the South African goldminers are: AngloGold, Gold Fields, Harmony and DRDGOLD. UBS has previewed the September quarter results that are expected Oct. 26 through Nov. 2. Download UBS Oct 19 report on the major goldminers of South Africa.

As you know, I have profiled two of these in the past day: Gold Fields and DRDGOLD.

Other than Gold Fields, of this group, I only like Harmony.

Harmony Gold [GICS 15]

Corporate profile

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited was formed in 1950 as a Rand Mines managed company to exploit the single Harmony mine lease. In 1997 Harmony severed its links with Randgold and became an independent, unhedged, South African gold producer. Since then, the company's directors have set out to grow Harmony into a world-class gold mining company.

Today, Harmony is the fifth largest gold producer in the world, with increasing growth potential in South Africa, Australasia and Papua New Guinea. In FY05, Harmony produced 3 million ounces of gold, predominantly from South African sources.

Wall Street analyst notes:

"Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY-NYSE, US$12.93) Mkt Target: US$16.50 • CEO Bernard Swanepoel reviewed the company's operations, with a focus on its growth projects. Swanepoel indicated that in this current environment of high gold prices, it is increasingly more difficult to continue the company's past active record of acquisitions. Instead, it is relying on its portfolio of organic growth projects, which are targeting a combined 1.5 million ounces of additional annual production to be phased in from 2007 through 2010. He highlighted the atypically low capital cost per ounce of some of these projects (Elandsrand $18/oz, Phakisa $22/oz) and its positive impact on project economics. • The company is increasing its international exposure via the Hidden Valley project in PNG, expected first production in November 2008, an opportunity for the company to demonstrate it can build mines outside of South Africa. Also at PNG, the potential for further resource increases at the Wafi/Golpu gold-copper deposit was highlighted."

(HMY: Yahoo Finance file)
(HMY: StockChart chart)
(HMY: Investertech chart)
(HMY: ADVFN Financial Data)
Harmony Gold website
Harmony - DGF2006
Harmony - DGF2005
Harmony - DGF2004


Like DRDGOLD, I am not positively inclined to AngloGold, but I see that the analyst has put a very high 12-month target price on the stock.

AngloGold Ashanti [GICS 15]

Corporate profile

AngloGold Ashanti Limited is a global gold producer with 21 operations on four continents, a substantial project pipeline and an extensive, worldwide exploration program. The company is listed on the New York, Johannesburg, Ghanaian, London and Australian stock exchanges, as well as the Paris and Brussels bourses.

AngloGold Ashanti is committed to continuously improving the performance of current assets through cost management and increased labor productivity, as well as by seeking out value-adding growth opportunities through exploration and a disciplined acquisition strategy. The company is focused on generating competitive financial returns and on rewarding shareholders with semi-annual dividends after providing for future growth.

Wall Street analyst notes:

"AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (AU-NYSE, US$37.74) OP Target: US$61.00 • CEO Bobby Godsell emphasized the three challenges facing the industry and AngloGold Ashanti: 1) Defending margins. He highlighted AngloGold's success in achieving cost savings. 2) Growth of production and reserves. AngloGold is investing at eight of its operations to extend life and grow production modestly. The company also has significant exploration programs in Colombia and Congo, and a new joint venture with Polymetal in Russia. 3) Maintaining social license. AngloGold's mission is for communities to be better off for the company having been there. An example is its anti-malaria programs. • With respect to the power shortages in Ghana, Godsell indicated that the situation highlights falling infrastructure spending in Africa and the possible need for multilateral institutional involvement."

(AU: Yahoo Finance file)
(AU: StockChart chart)
(AU: Investertech chart)
(AU: ADVFN Financial Data)
AngloGold Ashanti website
AngloGold Ashanti - DGF2006
AngloGold Ashanti - DGF2005
AngloGold Ashanti - DGF2004


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 19, 2006 04:22:12 PM | Category: Goldminer Producers

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