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October 17, 2006
Slippery slope for YHOO, Tues., Oct. 17, 2006, 5:06 PM
Earlier today the headline read: "Yahoo tries to buy itself out of an ad slowdown."
After the close, Yahoo reported and the news was even worse than feared. The headline reads: "YAHOO SAYS NET PROFIT FALLS 37%, WILL BUY BACK $3 BILLION IN STOCK"
Let me get this straight; Yahoo is in a mess, and they are trying to buy top-line revenue, but they also have enough cash around to buy back shares?
Tell me, when a company does a share buy-back, are the buy orders directed? In other words, is the trade set up? Is shareholder capital being used for the take-out?
In any case, I still like Yahoo; it's still a Cara 100. It's just that Wall Street has set everybody's expectations too high. And, if you don't play Wall Street's game, you find yourself a pariah.
Why doesn't somebody start investigating and writing about this stuff?
I really like the comment from a European company CEO who said he wasn't going to play Wall Street's game, and that no 25-year old financial analyst was going to pull his chain. Kudos for honesty.
But why don't we take it a little further;
As to YHOO, I'll probably get interested after the RSI-7 drops to 25 or lower for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily. In other words, I'll be a buyer late in a Bear market, when I expect to see YHOO trade at 18.
Yahoo Inc [GICS 45, Cara 100]
(YHOO: Yahoo Finance file)
(YHOO: StockChart chart)
(YHOO: Investertech chart)
(YHOO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(YHOO: ADVFN Financial Data)
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 17, 2006 05:06:16 PM | Category: Cara Global 100 Best Companies , Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
hm yhoo-quarterly cash flow at around 500 mil. expected and a mkt cap of 33 billion. that makes up for an current EBITDA-rate of return of some number near 6%. Hm, no thanks, I am going to buy something else. At $18 the mkt cap would be around 22 billion and a ebitda-rate of 9%, that would be a more reasonable buy.
btw. do the same math to goog and you get a GREAT short, when will Mr. Market get down goog? The first sign of slowing growth and he will hit the bids :)
Posted by: Jansing
at
October 17, 2006 6:40 PM [link]
After-hours YHOO is up almost 5%. Guess they didn't disappoint everyone?
or are they pulling a Piggly Wiggly? :)
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,880518,00.html
I also bought and stopped out of Yahoo.
Bill,
The biggest single development which will bury Yahoo and Google unless they deal with it is CLICK FRAUD! You have written about it in the past and I can tell you from personal knowledge of a client who has spent over 50K with Adwords in the past 2 years only to now find that his main competitor ( from Bogota,Columbia ) has been employing clickers to break his bank. Recently, his credit card suddenly got maxxed out and his server shut him down temporarily. He used the Adwords reporting tools to show Google how 10K in clicks had come from this single server in Bogota Columbia in recent weeks. Google sent him a form letter email and did nothing when he asked to simply have a 10K credit against future Adwords. Why would they bother stopping it if they also profit from this by winking and nodding all the way to the bank? He cut off the Adwords completely and has been fortunate that he has high Natural Listings and business is still moving along. There are now zero clicks from Bogota Columbia! When Click Fraud gets out of the bag Adwords and search engine advertising are dead. So much for the nose-bleed valuations of GOOG and others who had the next big thing - and got corrupted.
Posted by: TerryC
at
October 17, 2006 8:18 PM [link]
Jock/wavesmash-
We discusssed here whether YHOO should be accumulated since it was in The Zone. I opined not and asked Bill to comment. He then did and said he didn't like it here also. Hope you saw the exchange.
Posted by: MarkM
at
October 18, 2006 4:29 AM [link]
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Revision to Cara 100 accumulation? - I bought YHOO when its RSI's dropped below 30, but kept a tight stop on it, which got me out and saved the pain of the last few days.
Perhaps selling puts when it enters "the zone", although simultaneously buying a much cheaper put for downside protection, and not longer-term holding a stock till it lifts off of a convincing bottom? Isn't such an approach safer in such strange times as these?
Posted by: Jock
at
October 17, 2006 5:49 PM [link]