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October 2, 2006
Mingling with HB&B and gnomes today, Mon., Oct. 2, 2006, 11:36 PM
Today was a long day. I actually spent much of it with HB&B and some gnomes.
First, Crystallex CEO Todd Bruce gave an outstanding 1-hour talk over lunch to 100 very senior brokers today. The right people were impressed.
Later in meetings through dinner with others, including Mr. Platinum -- some worth gazillions -- I heard a lot of talk about fascist state, 1984, and so forth. Apparently the gnomes are as pissed as the Little People.
Seriously, it appears I am just articulating in this blog what many people at all levels are thinking.
Mr. Platinum asked me a good question for which I didn't have a good answer. He said (I'll paraphrase): "Did you see the online gaming stocks get smashed because of the U.S. legislation, and then hear the management at CryptoLogic (TSX: CRY and NDQ: CRYP) say that they had been aware for quite some time the U.S. Government was going to take this step? In their guidance to shareholders, did they ever issue a warning?"
It was a long day.
BTW, the slide that Todd Bruce showed the brokers and analysts today that was perhaps the most meaningful shows a table prepared by Mineweb dated September 29, 2006 headed: "Market capitalization per Reserve Ounce (US$) Net of Recoveries.
The list goes as follows:
Meridian;;;;;.$1,185
Kinross;;;;;.;.$724
Bema;;;;;;;.$606
Agnico-Eagle;;;...$334
IAMGold/Cambior;...$309
Bolivar Gold;;;.;$276
Newmont;;;;;..$203
Goldcorp/Glamis;;.$195
Barrick;;;;;;..$190
Yamana;;;;;;$182
Eldorado;;;;;...$180
Gabriel;;;;;;;.$71
Crystallex;;;;;....$44
Obviously, the market cap of Crystallex has a lot of upside potential, and could increase by a factor of 4 to 5 times after they receive the environmental permit to commence operations at Las Cristinas. But you know that already.
And you know that I think gold prices will be much higher in 2007. UBS Research thinks so as well.
The UBS analyst was impressed with what he observed at the Denver Gold Forum last week. Here is the report. Note his 2007 gold forecast at an average $750. Download UBS Sept 29 Report from Denver Gold Show.
BTW, UBS might not be well known to many readers, but this is the Union Bank of Switzerland " a class act. Their niche is the Very High Net Worth Client " the super wealthy.
I suppose another way of expressing what they do is to say they serve more gnomes than any member of Humungous Bank & Broker.
Speaking of HB&B, I received a letter this morning asking me why I just didn't point out to readers that as these banks were making so much coin, their stocks ought to be bought.
I agreed, and said that my Cara 100 is packed with them. Citigroup is in the Cara 100, like Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, UBS, and so on. But, as you know from reading this blog; a company is different than a stock. There will be a time when I do recommend buying these stocks.
In case I haven't made my point clearly: HB&B is not the enemy; it's the Boardroom folks who control the various HB&B operations, and who keep the industry tilted in their favour.
The rest are terrific people. For example, I have been invited to a big deal on Wednesday by Citigroup " their leading spokespersons, followed by cocktails followed by dinner. I sincerely expect to have a great time.
Citigroup has 300,000 employees, including some of the most talented people on earth. I'll bet you that 299,000 are people like you and me " hard workers, trying to make a living. We used to refer to the other ones as "floaters".
Time for bed.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 2, 2006 11:36:03 PM | Category: Gold
