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October 23, 2006
Massive move out of bonds, Mon., Oct. 23, 2006, 2:58 PM
Today, the yield on U.S. Treasury debt has increased +3 to +4 basis points across the time horizon. But over the past month, the move in yields has been a massive +9 to +17 bp, which means that bond money is rapidly becoming equity money.
Here is the rate table today.

Here is it at Friday's close, as published in the WIR.

If bonds are selling down so quickly, that's usually a sign that rates are rising to combat inflation. So why is the $USD in rally mode, and precious metals getting hammered?
This makes no sense in the long-run but in the short run it must mean that bond traders now believe that the Fed is going to raise this week.
But that probably should not cause yields on 30-year bonds to lift +11 bp this month -- just the T-Bill and short rates -- unless the bond traders actually now accept the refation scenario, and are no longer satisfied in the economic hard or soft landing thesis, which would cause rates to fall.
At least you will recall a month ago when I said that the bond rally was over. Those zero coupon bonds a well-known advisor recommended have been killed this month. As I said at the time, it's too early.
BTW, the table published in this morning's Simply Economics by Econoday has dubious figures for the 3-month T-Bill yield. They said it closed Friday at 5.08 pct (10/20 prices; blue line), but it was 4.94 pct, as the WIR screenshot shows. The other numbers are accurate, I believe.

When you see the yield curve move up so quickly, it's a short-term downward pressure on gold prices. Longer-term, however, gold will move higher in price along with rising inflation, and therefore rising Treasury rates.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 23, 2006 02:58:25 PM | Category: Bonds
Discourse
David,
BCara@billcara.com is the requisite email address.
Posted by: AA
at
October 23, 2006 5:52 PM [link]
Great call on the zero coups Bill! I remember listening to that telecon when the advisor recommended them as a hedge. It did seem premature.
Thanks as always for the insights.
Long--miners.
Posted by: Seamus
at
October 23, 2006 7:33 PM [link]
Seamus,
RBC Dominion has put out a Buy recommendation on silver miners. :-)
Their analyst is forecasting a $12 average 2007 price for silver, and likes Hecla (HL) as the best value play, and Pan American Silver (PAAS/PAA) also.
I was a little tired today or I would have continued to write up the miners. We're in a reflation now, and the extra money (from central bankers) is goosing stocks. Next to come will be the miners!
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
October 23, 2006 7:50 PM [link]
The inflation we have now is baked in and is not going away IMO. The Fed knows this and it's why they organized the oil takedown. Otherwise inflation would be rising even more.
The Fed cannot raise rates or it would put the final bullet into the housing market and the equity market.
The Fed cannot ease or else gold and oil likely take off. It is now in the tightest of boxes.
What do traders do when GDP comes in really punk on Friday?
Posted by: MarkM
at
October 24, 2006 5:52 AM [link]
MarkM, Re. What will happen on Friday with GDP. Do you think anything will happen that can derail this market? It seems that nothing matters.
Re. Reflation, a Google search on reflation came up with a post by Bill on Nov 2005:
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2005/11/what_is_reflati.html
It seems this reflation policy has been in effect for quite some time now. Since not much has happenned, I am just wondering if it just can't keep going on for a lot longer - and nothing will happen (?). How long will it take for this to break?
Posted by: ursus
at
October 24, 2006 9:22 AM [link]
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Forgot to say: this is an excellent post!
David
Posted by: David Jackson
at
October 23, 2006 5:52 PM [link]