Bill --

Why waste your time (or elevate your blood pressure!) with people like R?

Stuck in an HB&B bureaucracy, I suspect his ultimate ENVY of you, and what you are achieving with this blog.

I don't CARE if he feels you missed this brief rally. What counts is that you are developing in your readership an ability to think critically and independently about markets.

You have offered me more useful insight and information that would a thousand HB&B brokers who are perpetually "bullish on America".

Thanks again!

If he is truly a professional Bill then he knows the name of the game is risk/return. 15% runs from bottoms are as common as weeds in my yard. It's cherry picking data.

Does he think that markets don't correct? Oh wait! HE can pick tops AND bottoms! HE has the secret sauce! He'll preserve ALL his gains and take NO losses by getting out with it all while we "amateurs" are left holding the bag! Yeah, right.

I have been as bearish as the next but I'll put my 13.1% annually from July 2000 til now up against most. Trailing this year. Beat it the last. Trailed 2004 some. Whomped it in 2003. Etc. So I know you don't have to catch every rally to do well. You can trail for months, even YEARS and do well. As you and I know, it's about avoiding the big losses.

He sounds like some low level functionary that is proud he caught a low for once. Big effing deal. What an ass-hat.

15% move? You can get almost half of that in the U.S through an online savings account.

if he thinks he can justify his profession with a 15% move he should just go jack off to this blog and repent his sins for stealing money from his clients.

You really can't blame him. I guess most people would choose the dark side for a nice salary and bonus every yr, along with all the hookers and toys you can buy.

Unreal!

Bill,
It sounds to me like you have them running scared... Independent and transparent dissemination of information and analysis along with interactive discussions, is a threat to these "stockbrokers". As your site gets more and more popular the "fun" will only rise.
With great delight I read your analysis and opinions; I love the way you present yourself...
but then I am only an ordinary investor with an inquiring mind... the fact that you got people like me "hooked" is the real threat to them...
I used to pay these "Jokers"... you on the other hand ask for nothing... it's what I call true "free" enterprise.
best regards

May I kindly suggest "R" purchase the following book before writing any further e-mails:

http://tinyurl.com/y4zwds

That "final submission" has some egregious errors.

Wow; just wow. How can someone who directs such an obvious and adolescent flame towards a *free* yet invaluable service which you so generously provide, possibly claim to "enjoy a good debate and certainly educational discourse". Perhaps 'R' is really out of the office today and left his/her computer unlocked and coworkers are having a little fun.

I suppose the discourse was educational in that it reinforces everything Bill's been preaching about the sell side. If the clown shoe fits; wear it--'R' does.

This morning I couldn't possibly have thought I'd read something more asinine than Wade Belak's comments following the latest episode in the Battle of Ontario, but I was clearly wrong. :)

Ha-ha-ha, Doug11 the Belak call made me laugh out loud.

A VP with nothing better to do? "R" might have provided the contrarian signal I've been waiting for....:)

ALOHA !!

It has been simply amazing for me to hear the sales pitch from none other than both Morgan Stanley and Merill Lynch hucksters since I have had to deal with my Fathers estate. To a one they have all pointed out how historically the DOW has been going up since its inception except for the "brief ten year blip" during the Great Depression ... but none of us were alive for that, so therefore, it does not count. Then they ply you with that oft used word "diversify". Diversify? Where is my diversification from the US dollar? Of course none of them recommend gold except for the ETF or maybe they mention Newmont or Barrick. Tricksters all ... since none of their recommendations are outside of debt ridden paper IOUs.

Yes, I admit I missed that brief 15% rally but my portfolio of miners even with the $120 drop in the gold price is still up 70% since Jan 2006. That is one of my worst performers compared to the physical gold and silver I started buying in 2000 and even buying art ... yes "art", but quality like Picasso and Man Ray ... has outperformed the DOW, gold, miners, real estate and CDs !!!!

The problem is anytime you consult a salesman, which is what a broker is, they will only sell you their product. Like a used car salesman ... they don't tell you that you'd be better off with a motorcycle! What do you expect a stock broker to tell you? Don't buy stocks?

Ask this broker what he told his tech stock clients especially the ones holding Global Crossing or WorldCom ... The NASDAQ is still 50% off its highs years later after the crash!

All these guys do is sell you one bubble after another ... one fantasy after another ... Its all about commissions and profit for their boss ... nothing more!!!

VP, no doubt, is for the revenue he generates, not for the returns he generates for his "buy and hold" clients.

R, if you have something to contribute, please feel free to add to the dialogue here. You must find it to be valuable, or you would have stopped reading long ago.

MarkM nailed it. It's about avoiding the big losses. The more I look at this market the more it remembers me of 1999 and the immense bloodbath the following years.

I have to play a bit of devil's advocate here, but "R" has a point. Looking back to your archives in June, in a number of posts you did state the fact that you believed a serious bear market is at hand - with 20/20 hindsight, that call was just plain wrong, but that's ok.

I think that the tone of the letter was definitely unwarranted, but I think it is important to recognize that we all get it wrong sometimes.

P.S. I never took your sentiment to mean "GET OUT 100%" which I think is the misinterpretation of "R"

kaimu

Enjoy your posts. Congratulations on your miners' year. I don't think your alone with those who frequent this blog.

Just a quick note. You reminded me of a case from the past. The sell side is active in the art world also. Years ago the feds halted a counterfeit art scheme which originated in Hawaii. A number of arrests and seizures went down. The seizures included many famous artists including Picasso, Chagall, among others. The paintings were "masterpiece" forgeries which netted millions. I'm not saying your properties are forgeries, just the old caveat emptor applies in the art world also.

VPs at broker dealer firm are usually junior executives, probably wants to take a break from cold calling retired folks and trading of his company's name than his own track record. Always thought a good analyst eventually leaves to start their own funds rather than seek the shelter of stock options in a 401(k) and a pink slip when a down turn hits. Always bothered me when a money manager wants to be RIGHT vs RICH...SCARY...

kaimu
I too love good painting.
I grew up two blocks from the Gug, and took it on as church. At 12 I had a student's pass and worshipped the likes of DeKooning, Rivers, Joan Mitchell, Franz Kline, I could go on and on. American art blossoming at the same time as rock and roll, etc.
Very heady times.
I had (have) acquantances who have made fortunes on this play (Glimscher, Stone, Beadleson, etc), but I fear that valuations have exceeded reason, in the context of the "world we live in" today.
I have a great friend who regularly buys art and after holding it for a time, donates it as an alumni to a school that he wisely convinced to start a little wing in his name.
He is a pediatric neurosurgeon (read: very high income). I don't need to tell you how well this has worked for him using appraised value against real income.
I would be concerned, however, how this (the most esoteric and thinly traded market in the world) will hold up in a period of disinflation, or even just financial uncertainty.
I am sure you have taken this into consideration, but how do you hedge art?
Just concerned as I have a few good paintings myself, but have always thought I would leave them to the kids and hope that they might experience some affluent times in the future.
My experience with art is that one always pays retail and sells at wholesale. Paper profits are the only profits, but one doesn't know that until it's time to sell.
Just my take. Best of luck

ALOHA !!

What becomes irritating is all this hoopla over a 15% gain on the DOW. That gain does not mean everyone's DOW portfolio is automatically up 15%. Did GE go up 15%? All it really becomes is a sales tool for brokers to con the minions into an overbought market that depends more and more for survival on false government data and trading IOUs(which ETFs and derivitives are). It's all a "risk hot potato" or "risk musical chairs" ... At the end of the game whoever holds the most defaulted risk looses. Risk or liability is embodied in IOUs masked as ETFs or derivitives or a US dollar or a Euro for that matter. If you hold paper ... someone else's liability ... then you hold high risk.

Seamus ... yes I know of the art frauds, but even a Picasso fraud cannot be reproduced in unlimited quantities like a US dollar or a stock certificate. My uncle, who is no longer alive, was a very famous fashion designer and what I learned from visiting his homes and the homes of his wealthy friends is that they all "owned" lots of hard assets like real estate, art, jewelry, cars, coins, wines, antiques, gold and all the other hard assets wealthy people "diversify" into. These assets are owned with no debt attached(IOUs). These assets I have noticed have retained value for many generations and in fact seem only to increase in value generation after generation. If you think about it ... even in the Great Depression people got rich. Even one of Mad Money Cramers tv ads says "there's always a bull market somewhere ..." So it occurs to me that those who are rich one generation may not be rich the next, yet the hard assets the wealthy accumulate are still in demand and retain value as they have for centuries, therefore, there is always old money or nuvo rich who quest for the illusive status of a Picasso or a Monet or Gaugin.

I tend to believe that those in the equity markets are not so much there to preserve accumulated wealth as they are to leverage bets so as to one day "own" hard assets instead of leveraged IOU bets ... Most sane people I know want to pay off debt not get more. Yet those same people see no conflict of interest to play the stock market risk game while they simultaneously pay a $3000+ a month mortgage for thirty years. What is even more distasteful is stockbrokers who are more than happy to have their clients in risky markets having no concern for the consumer debt their clients carry at the same time. A responsible broker would first ask what sort of debt their prospective client has and then advise against market participation in the event the clients debt burden is excessive. Yet I have never encountered a single broker who cares what sort of debt burden I or my family have ... no credit report required. Yet to even rent an apartment most landlords require a credit report.

The difference between the haves and have nots is the haves "own" and the have nots "mortgage or margin" their future.

Sorry
Should have aded: congrats on PM's, me too, 10% to 20% gains since I thought I caught a ST bottom on or about 10/04.
Tightening stops in case this turns out to be a swing, but very optimistic considering that miners are no longer tracking PM spot prices dollar for dollar.

Bill
Go get 'em
R sounds to me like some wet around the ears WS ego-case who will soon get a lesson. Probably end up being one of your best fans in the long run.

Re Enjoying My Day,

There has to be an agenda behind the opening salvo-it's amazing how all of our bull---- detectors work the same way. (Wise men don't fire opening salvos, they parry.)

Tangential post to Kaimu and Ridgon's art conversation.....I literally just came in the door with a piece of family art. My deceased uncle was a metal sculptor and made a large table-top chess board (32.5"'x 32.5"). The pieces are hand cast bronze. The king is 10.5 inches and weighs 5.5 lbs. I've not weighed the other pieces. It's spectacular. Rather than white/black, they are bright/dull. I also have a couple of other bronze sculptures of his. He wasn't famous, and I never met him, but the sculptures and the set are meaningful to me in that they clearly required both extraordinary time and talent.

Well, Leisa, isn't that what it's really all about?
That our art, music, our homes and properties, our children, all our labors of love, indeed our very lifestyle.. are, at some point, appreciated by those for whom we labored.
I am sure that your uncle would agree.
Cheers.

PS. I suppose that would include our clever investments, but something tells me that the chess set will carry more long term importance.

Dave
Yes there was a call for a bear market and as i understand there still is, there are a lot of unnatural market forces at work here and they have been pointed out and substantuated, its just taking a little longer, what is being pointed out here by Bill and many of the other pro s is that caution is warranted, stay close to the sell button.

This guy says this rally is the "biggest bull run in years". Load of bullcrap. The SPX is up 13.5% since the June low. Guess what the Oct05-May06 rally was? That's right, 13.5%. What about the Aug04-Mar05 rally? 12.7%. Sense a pattern?

This rally, so far, has been pretty much in line with all the other rally legs we've had over the past three years. If we go substantially higher, he might be on to something. But right now, he's just full of bull.

Secondly, the SPX is now 4.7% above the May high. But I'm having a hell of a hard time finding many stocks that are higher than they were in May. Energy stocks? Nope. Smallcaps? Nope. QQQQs? Nope. Golds/metals? Nope. Materials? Nope. There just aren't that many indiv stocks and sectors that are above their respective May highs. Most are well below.

Even some of the sectors that are actually higher than May are only higher by a fraction. Take the BKX (banks). It is now 0.5% higher than May, severely underperforming the SPX even though financials are the biggest weight (23%).

How about retail? The RTH is 1.3% higher than it was at the Aug05 high, even though the SPX is 11.4% higher. Big retail rally? I don't think so.

I could go on and on, but it's pretty obvious that this rally is primarily on the backs of the Dow 30 and the SPX and is futes-led.

If the banks and retail and other sectors starting moving significantly higher, along with the indexes, then maybe a real bull is happening. But so far, color me vastly unimpressed. Yes, i'm long. But not for long unless these divergences clear up.

Kaimu: I believe there are two categories of brokers -- "asset gatherers" and "craftsman." Based on your post, you have encountered the former. Although much rarer, craftsman exist -- so please, don't lump us all together!

cb3
Can you post, somewhere, your CV and audited performance say for the last 10 years, so some might consider your services?