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October 11, 2006
Credit Default Swaps " one big con job, Wed., Oct. 11, 2006, 2:36 PM
Yesterday, Bloomberg published a story on Credit Default Swaps that ought to have raised eyebrows in the world of capital markets. Can you say three words: OUT OF CONTROL.
A Wall Street Journal article dated Aug. 30 delved into the ugly world of insider trading and the lack of any regulatory body over the ballooning Credit Default Swap market.
As I see it, there is a reason for the credit bubble that exists today; it's called Pigs At The Trough, and it has to stop before we lose all or at least most of the wealth we have built " and our parents and their parents have built " over the years.
Regulators seem powerless. Perhaps the answer is simple: take control away from Wall Street, the Gnomes and Washington.
Since that'll never happen, We The People are going to have to solve this problem on our own. I don't know how yet, but I do know that (i) Mom & Pop have no idea their pension plan is at material risk of a collapse in these financial instruments, (ii) traders today are giving up hundreds of billions in potential profits to the inside traders who are playing us for suckers, and (iii) few of us, including yours truly, understands this market.
But I am going to ask a basic question: how is it that a financial product can, from a couple hundred billion in the aggregate, grow in four years to one that is over $10 trillion today, without a regulator?
Today, the banks have finally decided to take their Visa card business public. Do you know that there is no regulator over Visa, and yet it handles trillions of your money and mine?
I mean even the managing directors at Humungous Bank & Broker have to be wondering how long their CDS and Visa gig is going to last.
Moreover, their biggest client, the so-called private equity companies, and their second biggest client, the Hedge Funds, are not (for all practical purposes) regulated either.
Even the NYSE is becoming alarmed at the HF issue. And the Dept of Justice has decided enough is enough with the secrecy at Private Equity.
To me, this is such a joke, the words "Subject To Regulatory Approval" is a parody. It's a reference to you and me " the Little People " being regulated, while there is nobody controlling the HB&B business with Governments, Gnomes, Private Equity or Hedge Funds.
For years, the bond markets were regulated, so how did HB&B deal with that? Ergo: CDS. Credit Default Swaps have now replaced the cash bond market as the debt market of choice for HB&B.
I think all of us know where this is headed. We are just waiting until somebody big in the Elite " bigger than say the late Ken Lay or LTCM or Refco or Amaranth or ; happens to choke to death on their insider trading aided and abetted profits " profits taken from Main Street.
I'm thinking maybe a second tier bank will someday have to close its doors. That will be like nuclear fission far greater than anybody's Axis of Evil.
Consider this: Since this report was published in May 2005 by researchers affiliated with the London Business School, the CDS market has DOUBLED, and the problems are at a minimum four to eight times worse.
This is serious stuff. It's about CDS, HF and Private Equity and how our regulators haven't got a clue other than they know the problem is a big one and no way they understand it. It's time we got it all out on the table.
I think in the interim, I'm going to have to change the Cara 100 Financial Sector (GICS 40) companies to include only ten of the very top tier, like Goldman, Lehman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, HSBC, Bank of America and Citigroup.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 11, 2006 02:36:00 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
I can't agree to more regulation. Regulation is like holding water in your hands - the money seeps through no matter your strength. A lot of regulations are dubious and ineffectual. Even worse, these regulations funnel money into inappropriate investments.
Overall, regulations represent politicians and their view of a market - not free individuals via capitalistic endeavors. In the US, politicians with little to nothing business experience hold sway over regulating entire industries. It's ludicrous to give these folks more influence.
Posted by: CashForFlow
at
October 11, 2006 3:57 PM [link]
"...few of us, including yours truly, understands this market."
That would be me too, so a primer is in order. One can be found here:
Posted by: glenn-mp
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October 11, 2006 4:24 PM [link]
Maybe regulating these fast-evolving markets ISN'T possible, but surely understanding them, and spreading the word of what's going on IS possible!
And maybe even trading in a way to protect oneself against the inevitable crash is possible.
That's where I think alot of our energy should be channeled.
Posted by: Jock
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October 11, 2006 5:40 PM [link]
its not mainly a matter of more or less regulation, it is a matter of fairness and equal level playing field for all.
Posted by: Jansing
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October 11, 2006 5:56 PM [link]
"its not mainly a matter of more or less regulation, it is a matter of fairness and equal level playing field for all." Jansing
What defines 'fairness' and 'equal level playing field'? Politicians talk in such ambiguous terms because they mean little, if anything. Also, investors who are willingly ignorant, but invest their money will always create an unequal level playing field. The best investor should always win, because they have unequal skills.
Posted by: CashForFlow
at
October 11, 2006 6:28 PM [link]
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Bill-it's interesting that the article states that the ISDA, an outfit supported by the brokerage and banking industry, is billed to monitor the CDS market. When I read the article yesterday, I was thinking along the same lines as you are.
But we all know that the Street firms will just conjure up another product that won't be policed until it gets out of control...and so on and so on....
Ray
Posted by: rayg
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October 11, 2006 3:07 PM [link]