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October 11, 2006

Commodities will remain strong, Wed., Oct. 11, 2006, 11:58 AM

In making a case that the commodity boom of the past couple years is not yet over, particularly for metals, my best argument is that almost all the major broker-dealers of the U.S., Canada and Europe are calling for higher commodity prices.

Sure there are some downward price adjustments, but that's a logical move after the economic data we follow closely is pointing to a slowdown. The bigger picture is that the emerging economies of the world (particularly BRIC -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China), based on the population numbers involved " 3 billion out of the global 6.5 billion " will need commodities as much as did Europe in the mid-1800's and North America in the mid-1900's.

In case you have not taken note, commodities " the physicals " are depleting, and the cost to discover, transport, protect, refine, market and deliver to consumers is skyrocketing. That's partly because of inflation due to excessive money printing, partly because of social and business issues related to globalization, and so forth.

Higher commodity prices are inevitable.

In this report by UBS on the North American Miners, there is a small downside revision to metals prices. The same is happening with other broker-dealers. Download UBS Oct 5 Weekly Report on NA Miners.

The key point is that in almost every case " from UBS, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Royal Bank of Canada, BMO, CIBC, TD, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley, the projections going forward into 2008 are HIGHER than exist today.

Yes, maybe there is GroupThink involved " but this is not the piling on that HB&B did in the 1990's with respect to a very wrong 98.5 pct of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations issued by their research departments.

After a multi-billion dollar haircut from Eliot Spitzer, the huge banks changed their tune. Now maybe a third of their recommendations are of the sell variety.

So the point is that Wall Street research believes on the basis of the best computer models and inside and published data that commodity prices are going higher. I accept that; I believe it.

I happen to be a strong believer in Gold, Copper, Nickel, and Uranium. I believe that the intermediate-term Bear cycle for commodities is almost over and that a secular (long-term) Bull cycle is still at work.

I have been giving you many names and info sources for these miners. In the next few days, I will be giving you some names of smaller companies. I had been set to do that during and after the Toronto Resource Investment show, but I happened to see another selling wave coming, which happened last week, and I didn't want readers to get stuck at higher price levels.

But now is the time to be looking at very small companies like Benton Resources (TSX.V: BTO), First Metals Inc (TSX: FMA), ECU Silver Mining (TSX.V: ECU), and the like. I'll let you do the homework first, and then I'll do the write-ups.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 11, 2006 11:58:14 AM | Category: 10 Energy , Commodities

Discourse

From what I can gather, ECU has made some great discoveries and is on everyone's list. FMA and BTO (especially) are very small and difficult to get information on. What about some of your earlier suggestions such as Glencairn, Alamos Gold, Anatolia Minerals, etc? I think now is a very good time to be putting together a short list of the metals Juniors.

Posted by: Tim47 [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 12, 2006 11:08 AM [link]

I noticed that ECU.V was up 6.12% today, and KS.V, another hot junior is up over 10%.

Posted by: Tim47 [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 12, 2006 5:07 PM [link]

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