TOP TEN
The week's top news and analysis
By MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:56 PM ET Oct 6, 2006

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3214373D%2D1C94%2D4BF4%2D9E5A%2D0F7696BD9D24%7D&siteid=

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/2006/10/06/no-doubt-employment-slowing/

I found the graph (referencing employment numbers)in the above reference interesting. I was thinking a bit about what BC was saying about "reading between the lines" in terms of what analysts and others are saying. I'm surmising that all of the breathless trumpeting early in the year of 2006 being the year of the big caps is such an example. Not one of those chatterboxes said they thought the economy was slowing (okay, some hyperbole, a few courageous souls at the rate of 1 per month might have said so), but they thought big caps would be the place to be (low valuations etc). Perhaps my saying that is so obvious that it doesn't bear repeating, but it was my small epiphany. I suppose that listening to any opinion regarding the market is a bit of The Davinci Code--nothing is as it may seem.

GOLD RISES WITH WORLD TENSIONS
Saturday, October 07, 2006 - FreeMarketNews.com

http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=22974

Energy is where the real "Bear Market" is IMO - not US Equities:

"Oil inventories recently reached 347 million barrels – an eight-year high and the largest U.S. inventory since 1998, when oil was $15 per barrel"

http://www.senate.gov/%7Elevin/newsroom/release.cfm?id=257862

Juancole.com is a great source for real info on US & Israeli wars in Islamic countries. (Juan is a scholar of persian/arabic culture, speaks both languages, lived 10 years in the region, has strong views, and is villified by the right.)

Before anybody freaks out, I am ONLY posting this because of possible impacts upon our trading. (I am not arguing about those wars.)

Today's post from Juan contains his analysis of how a break-up of Iraq (originally proposed by Leslie Gelb of NYT/Council on Foreign Relations, and now being considered by the Baker Commission) might lead to wider regional wars including Saudi Arabia (=$15/gal. gas?)

"The London Times reports that the Baker Commission will recommend a loose federal Iraq with 3 semi-autonomous regions.

This is a very bad idea for so many reasons it would take me forever to list them all. But here are a few:

1. no such loose federal arrangement would survive very long (remember the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States?), so the plan leads to the dismemberment and partition of Iraq. This outcome is unacceptable to Turkey and Saudi Arabia and therefore will likely lead to regional wars.

2. The Sunni Arabs, the Da`wa Party and the Sadr Movement are all against such a partition, and together they account for at least 123 members of the 275-member parliament. Some of the Shiite independents in the United Iraqi Alliance are also against it. I would say that a slight majority in parliament would fight this plan tooth and nail. The US cannot impose it by fiat.

3. The Sunni Arabs control Iraq's downstream water but have no petroleum resources. If the loose federal plan ends in partition, the situation is set up for a series of wars of the Sunni Arabs versus the Shiites, as well as of the Sunni Arabs and some Turkmen versus the Kurds. Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia will certainly be pulled into these wars.

It is not good for the region to have a series of wars over Iraq. It is not good for the security of the United States, since those wars will probably involve pipeline sabotage by guerrillas and will likely disrupt Middle Eastern oil flows. (Did Americans like $3.20 a gallon gasoline and $300 a month heating bills? Would they like to try $15 a gallon gasoline? What do you think would happen to the world economy?)

Finally, I just don't believe that the Arab and Muslim worlds would ever forgive the US for breaking up Iraq, and there are likely to be reprisals if it happens."

World tensions rising--North Korea conducts nuclear test

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/asia/09korea.html?hp&ex=1160452800&en=a491b0fad3e8d82b&ei=5094&partner=homepage