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October 16, 2006

Barrick Gold Corp under the microscope, Mon., Oct. 16, 2006, 8:53 AM

Barrick Gold Corp (ABX-NYSE; ABX-TSX, US$29.79) Price Target: US$45.00

Barrick Gold Corp owns a world-class asset base and has an industry respected management team under Greg Wilkins, President & CEO.

Mr. Wilkins notes that Barrick has the following attributes: (i) largest gold reserves in the industry, (ii) gold production of 8.6-8.9 million oz at a cash cost between $275-$290/oz, (iii) a robust pipeline of projects, (iv) excellent exploration opportunities, and (v) a strong financial position.

Milestones that Barrick has achieved in the past several years include (i) the share buyback (2003-04), (ii) the no new hedge policy and hedge reductions (2003), (iii) bringing four new mines into production (2003-05), (iv) the early 2006 acquisition of Placer Dome, (v) the 2Q06 disposal of Placer Dome's Canadian assets to Goldcorp, (vi) the 3Q06 bid for NovaGold/Pioneer (Barrick owns 81-pct of Pioneer), and (vii) the agreement to sell South Deep (3Q06) in South Africa.

In addition, the company expects (i) to satisfy the requirements to increase its interest in the Donlin Creek project to 70-pct and complete the Donlin Creek feasibility in mid-2007, (ii) to start production at the Ruby Hill project in 1Q07 (where construction of the $75 million project is on budget with development 90% complete), and produce 100,000 oz gold in 2007 (iii) obtain final approvals of the Pascua- Lama in Argentina in 4Q06, (iv) obtain final approvals for Cortez Hills in 2H07, and (v) optimize the feasibility study and do more exploration work at Pueblo Viejo.

Barrick has now recouped $3.1 billion of the original $10 billion purchase price for Placer Dome, while still maintaining the core asset base. Mr. Wilkins says that, based on a $4 billion value for the acquired copper assets, the balance of the Placer Dome gold assets were purchased for just $2.9 billion.

Barrick Gold trades at about 2.25x NAV, which is well below the peak valuation multiple of 3x that industry analysts assign growth-oriented unhedged gold producers.

As I believe that the gold price will lift through 2007 and into 2008, and copper prices will remain at current levels, I have a 12-month price target of US$45.00. Also, given that I believe the CAD will outperform the $USD in the next 12-months, I believe that Canadian accounts ought to buy and hold positions in CAD.

Risks of my price objective not being attained are unforeseen operating risks and/or commodity price weakness. Barrick Gold, however, is a world-class operator with a strong financial position and highly regarded management. ABX is a stock held by conservative accounts that want a stake in the precious metals sub-sector.

For readers who are interested in Cara 100 component Barrick Gold Corp, I urge you to review their 30-minute presentation at the recent Denver Gold Forum.
ABX ABX.TO Barrick Gold


Barrick Gold Corp [GICS 15, Cara 100]
(ABX: Yahoo Finance file)
(ABX: StockChart chart)
(ABX: Investertech chart)
(ABX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(ABX: ADVFN Financial Data)


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 16, 2006 08:53:48 AM | Category: Cara Global 100 Best Companies , Goldminer Producers

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