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October 27, 2006
3Q06 earnings coming for Precious Metals, Fri., Oct. 27, 2006, 10:18 AM
Precious metal miners are in the sweet spot of the cycle. Commodity prices are high and rising faster than costs, and production is increasing, which is leading to rapid earnings growth. Now that 3Q06 earnings season has started, it will pay to read the Wall Street research.
The current Merrill Lynch report lists the dates and times of the conference calls, as well as their weekly notes on Agnico-Eagle, Yamana Gold and Eldorado. Download ML Oct 23 PM Review.
One of the highlights of this report is the following table of "companies with intriguing mine and/or development projects". The strike-outs are the companies that have been merged or taken over.
The table is actually a code for those companies that are take-over candidates, or whose shares will be hyped in the months to come because of their property potential. I could add a few: Guyana Goldfields (GUY.TO) comes to mind.
From the table, you'll see shore Gold. This is actually a diamod play in Canada, and yesterday or the day before (time flies), they had a significant strike. Analyst Barry Allan (one of Canada's best) puts a 12-month Price Target on Shore Gold of $10, which is almost double what I last saw of it.

I have written a fair bit on Yamana and Agnico-Eagle, which is one I really like.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 27, 2006 10:18:08 AM | Category: Goldminer Producers
Discourse
Silver stocks are up 880% to gold's 321%* - from 10/27/00 to date.
Central Banks don't hold silver, so they can't restrain the price. Industrial demand seems growing, despite photography.
So, why can't silver get any respect in the ML report, and in general?
Isn't SLW by far the best bet of all the PM's, since the GG acquisition of GLG looks to go ahead and supply SLW lots of ounces?
What am I missing?
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*these figures are Media General's sub-industry groups via TC-2007. They are weighted by square root of market cap, so the big boys don't dominate.
Jock
I don't think you are missing a thing. I also own PAAS which has recently outperformed SLW. I am now looking at HL.
I think the fundamentals for silver are far more attractive than gold, but... gold is....gold.
Got any off the radar speculation ideas in this space?
Posted by: Rigdon
at
October 27, 2006 5:00 PM [link]
Rigdon, and others -
I liked the article on SLW's unique biz model by Bill and by Jim Damberger referenced somewhere on this site: buying ore off of non-silver producers rather than operating their own mines; then their deal with GG for silver from GLG's Mexico mines.
I also liked one of the reader's comments on this blog about the SLW warrants, SLWBF, which gives leveraged exposure to SLW's stock price. Just bid on some of those.
Also, Bill posted a study on Silver by a brokerage which recommended SSIR, PAAS, and SLW.
Also significant that there are under 10 publicly traded silver companies, and MANY more gold cos.
Among the golds, I like KRY. I think they will get their permit and become a 5x. No way to know when, but with the stock flat-lining, you can put in a tight stop, incase the deal should crater...
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ALOHA !!
Bill,
What exactly does a company have to do or say or pay to get on this Merrill Lynch list? While I own some of those companies listed I also own some that I would add to that list like ECU Silver and Etruscan plus some more riskier low priced stocks.
For instance at Morgan Stanley they won't even research a company unless its share price is above $3.00, plus average volume minimums. At least that is what my broker told me in 2001. That kind of criteria leaves out Aurelian types until it has lifted off into the stratasphere. Where were the buy recommendations under $3.00? Any brokerages do that?
What is the criteria for Merrill?
I agree Agnico-Eagle is a good company ... I wonder when Barrick will buy them? Perhaps Merrill Lynch has hired Peter Monk(ex-CEO of Barrick)to put together a "shopping list" for future Barrick purchases!
Posted by: kaimu
at
October 27, 2006 11:57 AM [link]