« Toronto Resource Investment Conference, Fri., Sept. 22, 2006, 6:18 PM | Main | Cara's Daily Planet, Mon., Sept. 25, 2006, 6:25 AM »
September 23, 2006
Week #38 (2006-09-23) in Review (FINAL)
This week I'll spend some time talking about the Battle of the Little Bighorn. Why? Because this was a week where events in the market and in the world of politics were widely characterized as being "bizarre" " and really were.
Besides, I see another major battle looming: the Battle of the Little BigDow.
On May 10, as you recall, the Bull was badly mauled and weakened in the last major battle. I thought the damage from the Fed was fatal, and it may have been. The market might still be going through the death throes only to have the next wave of incoming economic and ‘earnings season' data be listed as the ultimate cause.
I was thinking of fateful battles this morning, thinking that if Sitting Bull had directed his warriors to attack the U.S. Army cavalry in single file, the odds may have favored General George Custer's troops surviving.
I think we are a month or less away from our own Little Bighorn or D-Day.
"D" stands for "Designated" because that is the day we, in the future, will remember as being the beginning of the end to this great 2002-2006 Bull market.
Maybe the tide will turn after an accumulation of negative earnings surprises. More likely, the end will come like a flash out of the darkness, with little warning, and even less understanding.
But, like October 19, 1987, we will all know it when we see it.
Circle your calendar for October 17-18 this year because that is a 24-hour period when the U.S. Industrial Production, Housing Starts, National Association of Home Builders housing market index, International Capital inflow-outflow data, PPI, CPI, and Crude oil inventory data is reported. Canada's version of the FOMC report is also issued at that time.
So it strikes me that perhaps this coalition of economic forces hitting the market from all angles on October 17-18 may terminate the stock market cycle. And, reverse the trend from Bull to Bear.
Going into this battle means we traders will have to focus that much harder on trends and cycles and the key drivers of market prices.
That's because who knows about quality anymore? One day, Hewlett-Packard could be a BMW and then a Ford the next. Stuff like that actually happens.
Who even knows about their own I.D. any more? Somebody can steal it for $100 or 50 Euro.
I mean roll me over in the Rover, roll me over, lay me down and do it again.
Seriously, the important events in the market this week centered on (i) extreme volatility of commodities (ii) the future of hedge funds (iii) the rapidity of the U.S. economic slowdown, and (iv) the dubious stability of the U.S. housing market.
Talking Heads for vested interests will tell you that (i) commodity market volatility is normal " it isn't (ii) hedge fund investors get what they deserve " that's not the issue (iii) the U.S. economy is somewhere between Goldilocks and soft landing " it's not, and (iv) because of lower mortgage rates, the U.S. housing market will quickly overcome its problems " it won't.
Can you say ‘Rover, roll me over'?
Global Market Summary
International Equities: Almost all the international markets were down this week, but it was Templeton's Russia that was down the most. The bellwethers outside North America appear to be Japan in Asia-Pacific and Germany in Europe.
U.S. Equities : Following a moonshot week, the U.S. stock indexes were down a bit this week, but actually the losses came mostly from Friday. There is fight in the old Bull yet.
Dow 30 : There were 14 Dow stocks up and 16 down. Big Telephone and Big Aerospace kept the Dow afloat.
U.S. Sector ETFs: There were just 2 ETF's up and 8 down. The big winner was IYZ (Telco services) and the big loser was SMH (Chip & Dip). The rest were actually fairly quiet.
First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #8 (-1.0 pct); Almost a relief
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #4 (-0.3 pct); Most of the loss was Friday
20: Industrials (XLI): #9 (-1.1 pct); Led by CAT (-4.1 pct) and UTX (-3.6 pct)
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #3 (-0.2 pct); DIS whacked on Friday
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #5 (-0.5 pct); At least PG was being staple
35: Healthcare (IYH): #7 (-0.8 pct); Political again; but when isn't it
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #2 (+0.2 pct); Salivating over Hedge Fund business
45: Tech (SMH chips): #10 (-2.9 pct); From +3.1 to -2.9 pct. No rally, no Bull
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #1 (+1.3 pct); Something about telco and Bears
55: Utilities (XLU): #6 (-0.7 pct); Weakness in the economy
Bonds: Aha, the time spent a week ago "cleaning guns pre-PPI and pre-FOMC" was spent this week firing them. Economy in retreat; Bonds ablazing.
Commodities: Interestingly, as Crude Oil slumped badly, the $CRB was down much less. That's because most of the metals rallied. And Starbucks can't afford to buy coffee now. Inflation has not gone away -- we're just being told it has. But then, it is election time.
Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were down -5.4 pct W/W to 60.55. Things are improving; The outflow is constant, and may last another four to six weeks even. I'm thinking 55 will be the new bullseye low target. This week we discovered something new called Amaranth. How many more to come?
Gold: $GOLD, $SILVER, $PALL and $COPPER all made it big on a week that $WTIC plunged. Those Rangers are not smilin'. But I have to think these commodity funds also impacted precious metals prices.
Goldminers: A week ago, I wrote: "the goldminers were down -10 to -12 pct in the U.S. & Canada respectively. Definitely no respect. Sadly, old winners are new whiners." More whining this week even though the metals prices were up. The problem is those prices have to all move higher than their 50-day Moving Average; then the miners' share prices will confdently follow.
Forex: Except for George W's campaigning; er, "addressing the nation" a week ago Friday, the $USD has stayed on its course holding south. This week, the $USD lost almost a full pct, while the Euro gained more than a full pct.
Sector ETF:
Eight of the ten sector ETF's I follow here were down, but on balance this was a quiet week.
You might say I still smell smoke. Not just from the jet fuel of planes carrying leaders of the world's poorest nations to their annual shopping excursion to New York.
Funny story: a friend of mine, who at the age of 26 agreed to pay the South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu a princely sum of $50 million for the Top Level Domain we know as .TV, and the King accepted. So my friend brought the leaders to New York to do their U.N. thing, and a little shopping at some upscale places. They're in Saks " or more likely Bloomingdales " dressed in their tribal robes and my associate is standing to the side, trying to be inconspicuous -- sunglasses, dark business suit, and all -- when one of the paparazzi figures him for a T-Man. The young man was paying for the whole deal. It was his credit card!
If the world only knew what goes on at the U.N.
Still, it's a place not unlike the capital market. If the powers to be want it to work, they will fix it.
For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.
Also, Yahoo Finance has an ETF info service in beta testing right now that looks interesting. At Yahoo Finance, key in the ETF ticker symbol of your choice and explore on the left nav bar all the stuff that's available today or coming, including the top ten holdings.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
This week, XLE was down -1.00 pct. The price of $WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) closed Friday at 60.55, so the two keep dropping.
Goldman Sachs is still counting on $75 oil. I wonder how many billions they made on that call?
And it was just eight days ago we were told that "the International Monetary Fund (IMF), revised its 2007 forecast for oil prices upward, by 20 pct to $75.50/barrel, which should be perceived by market participants as positive news."
It seems a few hedge funds actually believed them.
Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Big Oil (Exxon Mobil and Chevron Texaco) were up +0.40 and +0.24 pct respectively, which is not surprising in an election campaign period, as I was suggesting a week ago here.
As I wrote: "I still note that Big Money seems more intent on coming out of the Canadian, Brazilian and European energy stocks."
This week EnCana was down -1.6 pct, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. was down -3.3 pct, and Statoil ASA was down -2.3 pct W/W " "which means, I suppose (yuk yuk) that the rest of the world is slowing down its economic pace so much faster than the U.S. of A; Well, maybe during Silly Season."
Are you starting to get the picture? I don't even have to change the words in this blog, which shows how ridiculous the situation is.
In any case, Amaranth's Brian Hunter was likely not the only so-called "stupid guy" or "rogue trader" who got caught.
When do hedge funds wake up to reality? HB&B knows all and they trade the order flow. When they smell fear, they go for the jugular vein and they suck the blood right out of clients that are foolish enough to play their ultra-high leveraged commodities game.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) lost -0.29 pct W/W to close at 31.08.
That loss makes the Basic Materials almost as big a loser as Utilities over the past four weeks, but nowhere close to the Energy sector.
Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This table shows that America's Nucor Steel actually gained +0.5 pct on the week, while the large Brazilian Steelmaker lost -6.6 pct W/W. Is there no major election campaign underway in Brazil presently?
The North American steel market died along with many others on May 10. Except for a few (CHAP, OS and CLF), most have been dumped alongside the precious metals.
This link will give you a look at stock performance, charts and fundamentals.
If you have any serious interest in the steels, have a look at the CBOE PVF Index.
The U.S. housing market decline will likely continue to hurt this industry for many months yet.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was down -1.07 pct W/W to 32.738.
The losers were Caterpillar (CAT -2.7 pct) and United Technologies (UTX -1.0 pct).
Boeing, however, had a strong week, going up +3.0 pct W/W to $77.25. Half of that move was Friday, which helped save the Dow 30 from a shellacking.
Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The U.S. conglomerates in this sector " GE, MMM, BA, HON, UTX, and CAT " would like to see (i) a stable dollar, and (ii) a lower USD.
Now if Henry Paulson could only convince the Chinese authorities to goose the Yuan, they might make some headway.
This China market is an American trader's dream: we buy their T-shirts and sneakers, and they buy our commercial airplanes and jet engines, wind turbines, earthmovers, and elevators, and have enough left over to visit Disneyworld.
So why is Kudlow preaching for a higher USD? Do you think he‘s saving his coins for a trip to the Beijing Summer Games in 2008?
Speaking of Kudlow, CNBC gave us a rather enjoyable week in his absence. Dylan Ratigan's Fast Money Boys were a hit. Quite entertaining. I found myself actually watching CNBC with interest.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down a bit, -0.23 pct W/W, which was merely a rest stop on a long campaign trail.
Yes, it was in this space that I noted (i) I was watching Cramer again now that he's toned it down a notch, and (ii) I figured the $USD could not hold up for long.
So now Cramer has got a gazillion followers who are students at Boston College. I hope they know what they are getting into.
And didn't the $USD have a bad day Thursday. Like me, it got crowned. Ouch! That's not going to help American purchasing agents or travellers to foreign lands.
Disney got whacked over -2 pct on Friday. But that wasn't a $USD deal; it was more like where have all the ABC ad revenues gone? Pete Seeger had the cycles right " even back in 1961!
He was remarkably prescient, wasn't he? Well, maybe just observant.
Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
We all hit the road running on Friday, so Nike had a great day (NKE +4.7 pct Fri.) and a fair week (+4.1 pct W/W).
A week ago I wrote: "My EBAY took a hit of -2.3 pct this week after being up +14.8 pct in the previous 4-weeks." This week EBAY plunged -6.3 pct. Seems like media advertising revenues have fallen off the cliff " Yahoo, New York Times, whatever.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
This week the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) lost -0.47 pct to close at 25.46, which is just 12 cents and doesn't concern me now that I've seen (and shown you) the UBS research showing how traders gravitate to the staples at times the GDP growth slows.
Yes, I gave you Wrigley (gum) WRY and Hershey (candy bars) HSY on Friday to go along with the PG and several other staples.
Why? Because U.S. GDP growth is in re-wind mode.
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Ah this Friday, the President wasn't hyping the nation. Consumer Staples (XLP) did not fall on the day.
As I wrote a week ago, watch the President's media schedule and the Consumer Staples vs the Consumer Discretionaries: "I think the two go hand in hand. We cannot have bullish traders thinking it is acceptable procedure to be going on the defensive when the President is speaking now, can we?"
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
The healthcare ETF (IYH) was down -0.78 pct W/W to close at 65.03. Most of the entire loss was taken on Friday.
In fact, the only sectors up on Friday were the groups (other than Oil) close to the President's heart: Financials and Telephone.
Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Isn't it interesting how traders "buy the rumors; sell the news". Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) was up +15.8 pct over four weeks. That includes the week after the Board fired the CEO, which happened to show a gain of just +0.56 pct W/W.
United Health was having management options back-dating issues, and maybe traders figured they too included some perks for dead people. UNH was down -6.2 pct on the week.
Tell me, if a company can hide behind an accounting investigation by not filing financials with the SEC, isn't that like pleading the Fifth?
I thought only GSA's got away with that kind of thing? GSA's are the Government Sponsored Agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Isn't it amazing that when Washington VIP's put in the good word that the NYSE can look the other way when Fannie and Freddie were failing to report?
I guess, as kids, they never heard the goose and gander story. Just Goldilocks -- the one without Silverhair and any Bears.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
The Financials ETF (XLF) gained +0.20 pct W/W to close at 34.22. Just 12 cents but they're so embarrassed at having ripped off five to ten billion in recent weeks, they're trying to play it low key.
Amazing that just a week ago, I wrote: "Goldman Sachs (GS) (+8.6 pct), Lehman Bros (LEH) (+8.3 pct), Morgan Stanley (MS) (+6.4 pct) and Merrill Lynch (MER) (+6.1 pct) made their quotas for the quarter this week."
And Amaranth had the blood sucked out of it.
Yes, a week ago I wrote: "Isn't it amazing that the biggest parts of Humungous Bank & Broker can become +7.4 pct richer in a single week? Think about it. They must have royally screwed their clients in the energy and metals futures markets this month; Somebody did."
Ah yes, those darlin' energy futures.
Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago, as the major NYC banks rolled up an average gain of +7.4 pct in a week, I wrote: "This is just unbelievable; But what happened to Hong Kong Bank, or Citigroup, or UBS, or Credit Suisse? I guess they don't get theirs until late October-early November."
In hindsight, not being prime broker to America's biggest hedge funds, maybe they'll never get theirs.
Or maybe European hedge funds are just smarter? Do you think?
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
A week ago, the semi-conductor ETF (SMH) gained +3.12 pct. This week SMH dropped -2.91 pct W/W to close at 33.35.
The name of the game in tech this week was software (again) and telephony mobile units.
Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oracle (NDQ: ORCL) never ceases to amaze me. Using OPM, Larry Ellison just gets richer and richer. I remember him as a stock promoter in the early 80's. I bought his software for the Canaccord business and then again 14 years later for the Qtrade business. I used Hewlett-Packard servers the first time, and then mostly Sun (for the heavy lifting) and Compaq (H-P) for the mail servers the second go around.
ORCL was up +7.4 pct W/W to $17.54. That's a gain of +39.2 pct YTD. Competitor SAP is up just +5.9 pct YTD.
Ellison should be running for President. On a ticket with Eliot Spitzer, the two could really put the country on the right track again.
Now I josh because I don't even know if Larry is Rep. or Dem. So, no letters please.
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was Sector ETF #1 this week, going up +1.31 pct W/W to close at 27.81.
I even checked: the last time IYZ was Numero Uno was Week #7-Feb-18-06. That week, VZ was up +4.8 pct and T gained +2.9 pct. The S&P 500 was 1287 and the Dow 30 11,115.
Today the S&P 500 is 1315 and the Dow is 11,508. So the gain since Week #7 is + for the S&P 500 and + for the Dow 30. I just point that out because had the Dow 30 gained the equivalent of the S&P 500 over the past 31 weeks, the index would be 151 points lower.
VZ (+3.6 pct) and T (+3.3 pct) this week led the group.
As you can see from the Yahoo data on the IYZ telco ETF, T and VZ, the two Dow 30 companies, make up 40 pct of the IYZ.
If the broad equity market is going to head south for the winter, you have to be aware of where these squirrelly money managers are hiding their nuts. Right?
As Brian Hunter discovered, it wasn't in Natural Gas. It seems he never heard the Story of El Nino, poor guy. He actually thought we were going to have a winter, so he bought Natural Gas futures at a discount.
This distraught young man (his friend says he's feeling bad after dropping $6 billion at the gaming table), a Calgarian (yes a Stampeder, but also a flame-out), never even considered the remote possibility that the President's PR people could rewrite the laws of nature in this pre-election summer.
He should have tried buying trillions of LD minutes from VZ and T because obviously Wall Street believes their stories that we are all going to be permanently attached to a speaker phone with global conference calling.
Apparently the AMD chip gets implanted just behind our Right ear. That's the Red one. The Left is Blue. (lol)
Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
The Utilities ETF (XLU) keeps on losing. You'd almost think there was no Natural Gas going down their pipes and into American Toll Bros. & Hovnanian homes.
XLU has been down -2.4 pct in the past two weeks (second worst next to XLE), including a loss of -0.8 pct this week, closing at 65.03.
I'd think that as the U.S. GDP slows, so too will the price growth of XLU. In a recession, XLU is like XLE or XLB not the best place to be over-weighted.
Again, go to the new Yahoo Finance site for ETF's like XLU and you will discover lots of useful information.
Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

Bonds:
A week ago I wrote: "There was not much at all happening in the U.S. bond market this week... I have to think the news next week on the PPI and FOMC front will move some bonds."
This week, the bond market took off like a shot, and true to form CNBC trotted out the Pimco Bond King & Queen.
Why? These were the same Talking Heads who strongly recommended buying the 10-year Treasury paper the week before it crashed and burned. So, why should we believe them now?
Why the side show? Do we really believe any Big Media any more?
After investing billions of dollars in Disney (owner of ABC News), Time Warner (owner of CNN) and News Corp (owner of Fox News), do we think that Saudi Prince al-waleed bin Talal is going to sit idly by paying for somebody else's Talking Head tell us bad things about his investments?
Who really knows how honest the media is.
It was just 90 days ago (Week #24 Jun-17-06) that the Bond market crashed because we were told the economy was inflating. This week we were told the Bond market was zooming because inflation has been beaten and now the slowing economy is what we should fear.
Here's the problem. Long-time commercial crime detectives will tell you there is always a bit of truth is a con artist's story. Just to throw you off the trail.
Here's a solution. It's actually a trick I learned 25 years ago " self taught after working closely with stock promoters and trying to get to the truth behind the story.
When I hear a sales pitch, I always throw away the first line " it's just a warm-up. It's almost always the second one that is important. That's the hook.
The problem for Talking Heads on TV is that they only have time for a brief sound bite. So in effect they are forced to mislead you right off the bat.
That's one of the reasons I call them clowns. It's not that hard to figure out.
Is Texas Boone Pickens is going to tell us that oil is going into the toilet? Not any more than say Jim Rogers is going to tell us that the commodity boom is over, or Bill Ford is ever going to say he brought in the wrong guy.
There is an election campaign going on, and a new Treasury Secretary and new Fed Chairman trying to do their job, which is to speak to the strength of the USD, the U.S. Treasury market, and the U.S. economy.
Humungous Bank & Broker is making billions in the market; administrative fees from advisors are eating up hundreds of billions more. For every dollar they earn, we pay.
All these people have vested interests to protect, and whenever they speak, they are "protecting".
The point is we have to do our own analysis, and with all the noise around, it's not easy.
This is a long pre-amble into bonds this week because I feel the public is being misled. There is simply no reason for a Fed rate of 5.25 pct and a 30-year T-Bond yield of 4.73 pct unless the economy is over-heated and the authorities want to cool it down.
I'm going to interject here: I have just read another reader comment that has turned me right off. I had just spent a couple hours going into a study of Nasdaq banks to insert here, which I think was potentially important for people to see, but I'm saying to hell with it.
Now I just want to get through the rest of this WIR asap.
Interest rates and bond yields.






| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 4.78 | 4.78 | 4.79 | 4.92 |
| 6 Month | 4.81 | 4.83 | 4.89 | 4.94 |
| 2 Year | 4.67 | 4.69 | 4.85 | 4.87 |
| 3 Year | 4.57 | 4.58 | 4.77 | 4.79 |
| 5 Year | 4.53 | 4.57 | 4.75 | 4.76 |
| 10 Year | 4.59 | 4.63 | 4.79 | 4.80 |
| 30 Year | 4.73 | 4.77 | 4.90 | 4.94 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.51 | 3.51 | 3.52 | 3.51 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.50 | 3.51 | 3.52 | 3.53 |
| 2yr A | 3.57 | 3.57 | 3.58 | 3.61 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.56 | 3.57 | 3.58 | 3.62 |
| 5yr AA | 3.58 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.63 |
| 5yr A | 3.57 | 3.59 | 3.60 | 3.66 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.80 |
| 10yr AA | 3.67 | 3.70 | 3.72 | 3.78 |
| 10yr A | 3.84 | 3.87 | 3.92 | 3.95 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.05 | 4.10 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| 20yr AA | 4.05 | 4.11 | 4.12 | 4.17 |
| 20yr A | 4.17 | 4.19 | 4.19 | 4.30 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 5.07 | 5.10 | 5.25 | 5.31 |
| 2yr A | 5.13 | 5.16 | 5.35 | 5.38 |
| 5yr AAA | 5.08 | 5.13 | 5.30 | 5.27 |
| 5yr AA | 5.14 | 5.19 | 5.34 | 5.37 |
| 5yr A | 5.21 | 5.25 | 5.42 | 5.46 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.36 | 5.41 | 5.62 | 5.65 |
| 10yr AA | 5.38 | 5.44 | 5.59 | 5.56 |
| 10yr A | 5.48 | 5.52 | 5.67 | 5.76 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.78 | 5.82 | 5.90 | 5.87 |
| 20yr AA | 6.03 | 6.04 | 6.11 | 6.07 |
| 20yr A | 5.97 | 5.99 | 6.12 | 6.16 |
Interest rates and bond yields.

The T-Bill yields crashed this week. I knew in my heart a week ago something big was coming down. This week, the 30-year T-Bond yield has dropped -17 basis points from 4.90 to 4.73 pct. The 10-year dropped -20 bp from 4.79 to 4.59 pct. The 5-year dropped -22 bp from 4.75 to 4.53 pct. The 2-year dropped from 4.79 to 4.67 pct, which was a move of -10 bp. These are serious moves.
And yet the Fed rate, charged to commercial lending banks, is at 5.25 pct. Even the 3-month T-Bill yield dropped -1 bp to 4.78 pct.
When there is a negative spread of 47 basis points between the Fed rate and the T-Bill yield, there will be no new loans that make money, so effectively business and investment is being cut off.
This is a panic move to put capital into bonds before a crash in equities. It is an attempt to save the housing industry and keep the U.S. economy afloat.
I wouldn't accept the veracity of a single economic data point from this point forward that has the faintest odor of Washington on it.
US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts
SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts
SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts
SHY Hourly data series chart:
IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Bonds were up big time " right from Monday morning. But the $USD was down a lot.
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Fannie and Freddie were losers on the week. Capital was going into Treasuries instead.
Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts


Commodities:
The $CRB made another in a continuing series of losing moves " mostly on account of energy -- losing -1.78 pct W/W to 300.86. Most of the loss was on Friday (-1.15 pct).
This week the oil market (down -5.42 pct) was the biggest contributor for the $CRB dropping off.
I have pointed out that traders closely watch the 200-day and 50-day Moving Average prices.
A rising 200-day MA is a Bullish trend, and when the price of your instruments are trading above that, you are a happy camper.
Then when your prices fall below the 200-day MA, you ought to switch to being a worried camper. Finally, when the 200-day MA turns down, and your prices are below that, you are a stupid camper who needs to come in from the storm.
Well that's the thinking anyway, but you'd be surprised at how well it works out.


The Crude Oil charts below show the source of the $CRB problem.
This week $WTIC (near oil futures) traded down as low as 60.19. In the past 31 trading sessions in the past month, the price of $WTIC Crude Oil has dropped from a high of 77.70 to a close this week at 60.55. That's a drop of -22.1 pct, which is to a full-blown Bear market in six weeks.
Yes, Big Money has definitely left Big Oil " for now " while they sweep the Street.
A week ago I asked if we'd see hedge fund failures in this sector. The following Monday, Amaranth admitted losing -$6 billion out of $9.5 billion.
HB&B, that's quite a broom. It's been quite a month. How many more?
This is a good time to try to read as much as possible of the professional research you can get access to.
Here courtesy of Merrill Lynch are three reports.
Download ML Report on the Oil & Gas Producers.


Gold:
$GOLD moved higher by $11.93 (+2.07 pct W/W) to $588.60. Yes, I said higher! And check out the other metals as well.
The low for $GOLD this week was 572.30. The 200-day Moving Average is now 594.23, and the 50-day MA is at 621.19. So the current price is just below the 200-day MA, which is a significant point. It must get over that hump.
Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
$SILVER gained $0.37 (+3.42 pct W/W) this week to close at 11.17, which included softness on Friday.
The 200-day MA is 11.03 and the 50-day MA is 11.77. So the current price is now above the 200-day MA.
Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.
$PLAT dropped -1.12 pct W/W to 1153.70.
The 200-day MA is now 1136.50, and the 50-day MA is 1230.70. So the current price is above the 200-day MA.
Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.
$PALL had a strong week gaining +2.29 pct W/W to close at 321.39, but how about Friday where $PALL jumped +4.11 pct on the day. That made the whole week.
$PALL's 200-day MA is 319.99 and the 50-day MA is 328.76. So the current price is above the 200-day MA.
Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.
$COPPER plunged -7.19 pct a week ago. This week it gained +3.99 pct to close at 344.35.
The 50-day MA is 348.75 and the 200-day MA is at 290.63. So the current price is just below the 50-day MA and well above the 200-day MA.
Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago GDX plunged -10.22 pct and XGD -11.78 pct, respectively. What a week!
This week, GDX was down -1.08 pct and XGD was down -1.32 pct W/W. I'd call this forced selling by Alternative Investment hedge traders who are not properly hedged much, if anything.
In any event, ML thinks this week is the end of the usual summer rally in the gold stocks. I disagree, but you can read it here. Download ML NA Precious Metals Report.
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:


The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Forex:
The $USD suffered a bad week, going down -0.93 pct to close at 85.17.
The 200-day MA is 87.51 and the 50-day MA is 85.49, so the current price is below even the 50-day MA, which is bearish.


The Euro (priced in USD) gained +1.08 pct W/W to close at 127.93, getting closer to that psychologically important 130 level.
The British Pound, which was the star again, moved up +1.24 pct W/W to close at 190.14.
Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen gained +1.13 pct W/W to close at 85.85.
I'm beginning to question how strong the Japanese economic recovery is though.
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
The Canadian Dollar was flat this week. It gained +0.08 pct on Friday to close down -0.01 pct on the week.
Much lower oil prices didn't help.

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

International Equities:
China (+1.47 pct) and India (+3.02 pct ) made good moves on the week. But take note, these are not the domestic indexes, but equity funds that trade in the U.S. in $USD.
Russia (TRF) continues to take bad hits. This week was even worse, going down -7.13 pct W/W, which included -3.84 pct on Friday.
One of these days, we'll see other broad market indexes do the same. In other words, the problem is not Russia. It's equities in general. Bullish traders are about to pull in their horns.
I like using the Russia Templeton fund as a proxy on the global market. It seems to work.
Btw, the TRF is down -12.24 pct over 4 weeks. More to come " not just in Russia but everywhere. You couldn't hide falling equity prices in the next couple months if you were trading from a beach hut in New Caledonia, somewhere in the South Pacific " unless maybe you were trading sea shells.
Table 13: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), closed at 13.20, down -1.57 pct.
Japan is the leader of the Asia-Pacific equity markets, just as Germany is in Europe. Both are having issues, and may soon be taking the lead in marching south ahead of the Bear.
Taiwan (EWT), Hong Kong (EWH) and Singapore (EWS) have been relatively strong, so I'm watching to see if any or all of them falter along with Japan or whether Japan can kick I back up a notch.
The key here is to watch EWJ's declining RSI peaks and the MACD cross-over and weakness on the Weekly data.
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:



U.K. equity market ETF: EWU
EWU (priced in USD) was largely flat on the week. EWU lost -0.18 pct on Friday, but ended the week up +0.08 pct to close at 21.71.
The EWU has been relatively strong, stronger than the German EWG, but not as strong as the Italian EWI.
As I see it, the German EWG looks most likely to lead Europe south, and that's where I'll be watching. Specifically, I'll be watching the declining peaks of the Weekly RSI data, which present a negative divergence to the rising prices, and I cannot ever ignore a MACD negative cross-over.
EWG seems to be setting up for that.
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Daily data:


Canadian equity market ETF: EWC
Two weeks ago I wrote: "The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was crushed -4.04 pct in just four days. The Cdn ETF closed at 23.96."
One week ago, EWC dropped a further -1.84 pct to close at 23.52.
This week the EWC dropped -0.38 pct to 23.43.
The western oils continue to get hurt by falling prices for Crude Oil and Natural Gas.
Major player EnCana (ECA), down -6.09 pct a week ago, dropped a further -1.60 pct this week, down to $44.80. That's a -20.0 pct loss in the past year, including -18.4 pct in just 4 weeks.
Imperial Oil (IMO), Baby Exxon, dropped -2.85 pct this week, good for a loss of -14.7 pct over the past 4 weeks.
When you look over the chart history (Weekly and Daily RSI) of the Cdn oils, you'll see the importance of jumping off the bandwagon early. A single stock may act out of sync, but not the entire group.
Ultimately this Oilsands group will get oversold and be due for an intermediate cycle correction in an ongoing Bear, but the charts show me continued weakness ahead. I like the group though, and will start to accumulate positions in the Cara 100 ones after I feel the group has completed a full Bear cycle of maybe -25 pct.
The Weekly RSI 7's for the group are in the 30 range but the Monthly RSI 7's are still at 44. Not much more to go on the downside though. If Crude oil hits 55, that will possibly be the bottom of the stock cycle. A danger here is that if Crude drops below 50, these Western Canada oil sands companies will be facing some margin challenges, and the stocks could drop a lot more.
If the U.S. has that hard landing (ie, recession that carries through for say three quarters), there would be a strong possibility of serious moves lower because they don't pay much in the way of a divided.
This is a good time, if you are long these stocks, to review the literature I have provided from the major Cdn broker-dealers. I have found the research from these firms to be of very high calibre.
Canada's market is heavily weighted by the major banks. These are well-managed, but in a recession, will pull back to much lower levels. Royal Bank of Canada (RY) for example is one of those very well managed banks, but when you see a Monthly RSI 7 close to 80, you just have to know the cycle is getting extended, and it is likely just weeks away from topping out " if it didn't a month ago.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think RY (currently US$44.08) hit its cycle high in late August at US$46.26. I don't think you'll see that price again. Sure it's current (trailing 12-month) PE is 16.4, but a recession ahead and a slower stock and bond market will trim those earnings.
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:



(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)
(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)
(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).
U.S. Equities:
The broad markets all suffered losses this week in the U.S. But if it weren't for a loss on Friday, the Nasdaq would have closed the week a winner. On Friday Nasdaq lost -0.84 pct, but the week's loss was only -0.75 pct.
Does that mean I think Nasdaq is ready to carry the Bull on its shoulders? Other than ORCL and a couple others, I see no sign of that. In fact, I think the tech rally is about over. I fail to see how a rapidly slowing economy is going to permit many companies to meet the market's expectations for double digit revenue and earnings growth. And I don't think the short-term traders " those who are up some 20-25 pct since mid-July when I gave you a list of about 20 tech stocks I believed would rally " are stupid enough to leave those chips on the table.
I think what we're experiencing presently is a pump and dump, as Smart Money is going to the sidelines " Bonds, selected Consumer Staples, high dividend-paying Telco's, and Cash.
The Russell 2000 small caps were down this week -1.47 pct to 718.63. That makes it about flat for the past three weeks. Not bad, but not great. I haven't looked but I wonder how the insider buy-sell's for this group have been going in the past month.
The Dow 30 and S&P 500 were down only -0.46 pct and -0.39 pct, about half that on Friday. It really wasn't a bad week at all. I think that the market is getting nervous.
Early Friday morning, CNBC started to say things like the futures were looking terrible, yada yada, when in fact they were barely negative. What are these "personalities" going to say when they see one of the Dow 29 off more than ten pct in a day.
GM doesn't qualify any more. It's a joke. GM has a market cap of about $17 billion and an under-funded pension liability of $70 billion. There is no way the workers are going to see their money. A judge will tell them to kiss off, which is the way things are done these days.
Management hopes to earn a $1.3 billion profit this year after losing roughly $3.5 billion last year. That turnaround is good because they own a quarter trillion in long-term debt. In Canada, Judge Farley would have taken the keys to their cars and trucks and turned his lawyer and private equity comrades loose to pick the bones clean.
Haven't you ever wondered why the Big Three don't combine forces to own a single engine casting plant, a single tire manufacturing plant, a single frame plant, a single finance arm, and so on?
I do, but do I care?
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Value Line report this week is one of the most important American warrior companies, Boeing Co.
Boeing replaced 3M Co in the Cara 100 after CEO Jim McNerney moved from Company A to Company B. I figured that the credibility issues Boeing faced under the two previous Commanders would be quickly resolved under Gen. McNerney, and they have been.
BA, however, like most of them in the Dow 30 unit, will take a beating in a Bear market. But, like those who fought at Little Bighorn under Gen. Custer, that doesn't mean to say the troops of Boeing Company are not top-quality warriors.
What is impressive in this VL report is the very high growth rates forecasted for Earnings, Dividends and Book Value for the next five years. And VL points out that any more big orders for the 787 Dreamliner will possibly result in capex investment to build production capacity.
When was the last time we heard that from a major U.S. manufacturer?
Boeing has been a home-run to traders who have participated in the current cycle. If you recall, I was so turned off by what I perceived as terrible CEO management at Boeing that when the stock rose above $50, I started calling it a good stock to hold at $38. I didn't like the hype that existed about a product " the so-called Dreamliner " that didn't exist.
I'm a simple person " when it comes to a manufacturing company, I like to see an actual manufactured product " like the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, F-15E Eagle, C-17 Globemaster III, AH-64D Apache Longbow, and V-22 Osprey, as well as Harpoon, SLAM-ER, THAAD missiles, airborne lasers, and Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAV).
In fact, as you may be aware, there are still questions the company can deliver the spec'd 787 product at their budgeted cost.
But, all in all, Boeing was probably my biggest mistake (of many) in the past two and a half years.
Thankfully, it was Jim McNerney's recruitment that made me change my mind. Still, I'm going to miss the late Lew Platt.
Lew was an amazing guy who did his best to turn the ship around at Boeing. And it sure was a sad day for Hewlett-Packard when he retired there as Chairman and CEO. Things were never the same again at that place. It was right after Lew left H-P in 1999 that I started noting (in my published Dow 30 Journal) the funny business in HPQ stock trading, and then the management nonsense.
What is happening today at H-P didn't just start at the end of the Cara Carleton Fiorina regime, for sure.
At this point, California had better hope that H-P soon gets its act together because Silicon Valley depends on it.
Dow 30 list:
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)
Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)
American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 22: next one is due Dec. 22)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)
Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 15: next one is due Dec. 15)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)
General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 7: next one is due Oct. 6)
Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 8: next one is due Dec. 8)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24) >
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 11: next one is due Nov. 10)
Wrap up:
It's important that I tell you I find myself increasingly unhappy with the hours I am putting into this blog. Just so you know what's in my head these days.
But please don't write comments to say you're sorry, yada yada, because I'll just delete them.
I've had a couple e-mails turn me off this week. A few " not many " of the letters/comments are just trying to bait me " tonight I had somebody say that I was a one-way communicator, doing this for myself. I told him I have just given 6,000 hours of my time free, so get lost.
When I am tired, and have other things on my mind, it just takes four or five nameless readers out of 100,000 to potentially turn me. It seems to happen every few months. I'm getting close to the line again.
So I decided that if I don't like something in a reader comment or direct mail, I am deleting it " no reasons given. And if somebody feels upset or doesn't want to read anymore, I say sayonara.
I have to find a way of having the readers themselves assess who is going to be permitted to make comments here. If it's just me you don't want to read, your solution is quite obvious.
I am also trying to get the myGrassroot virtual investor club going so I can back off and let others take the lead. I must be more careful with my time in the future. There are days now that I receive 400 to 500 legit e-mails; even though I try, I just don't have the time to read and respond to more than a few of them.
Many of them involve requests. I'm not interested in business ventures, promoting somebody's blog, or whatever it is they are trying to sell. I don't have a staff to do any of this for me; nor do I want one.
To these people, all I can say is "I'm retired".
Later today, and again on Monday I'll be at the Toronto Resource Investment conference.
Then I'll retire.
Oh, I forgot to say in the Gold section. I arranged for Todd Bruce, CEO of Crystallex (TSX, AMEX: KRY), to address a lunch meeting of the Toronto Stockbroker Club on Monday Oct. 2. If you are a stockbroker, from anywhere, please feel free to attend. Write me for the details. That's a letter I'll respond to.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 23, 2006 09:00:58 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review
Discourse
Bill:
Great read again this week as always. I only hope you get as much for yourself out of writing this as I get out of reading it--it has become a Sunday morning ritual.
With that said, it sounds like you are getting a bit burned out (it's not hard to see why, with the obviously enormous amount of time you put into this blog). My suggestion is to give yourself a vacation; either from the blog completely, or from writing up the WIR if that is enough. Although I would miss it, the benefit would be obvious if it kept you from terminating the blog altogether.
Spend more time in the islands. That's where your heart seems to be.
Posted by: BigHube
at
September 24, 2006 8:49 AM [link]
Bill-
If you need a break just post the two omnibus headings each day for a week or two and save yourself for the WIR. The "regulars" can step up to keep the daily chatter happening. Just a suggestion.
Best....
Posted by: MarkM
at
September 24, 2006 11:29 AM [link]
Dear Bill,
Your blog is a wonderful classroom that offers priceless teachings for so many people, including myself, people who have never found such honest, clear information elsewhere.
People interjecting comments should be polite and respectful to Teacher, or get out of the classroom. It can be very hard to take the time to prepare the teaching sessions, write them up, and still take time to be the "hall monitor" at the door, taking care of disruptive people who are not interested in honest and appreciative study and discourse.
Can some of us interested readers volunteer to help with any functions? Either being a "hall monitor" or assisting otherwise? Perhaps some of us could contribute to a fund for an assistant for you, that could at least filter your email to remove the junk/solicitations/rants so you can leverage your time better? What do people think? What do you think, Bill?
Posted by: aa
at
September 24, 2006 2:05 PM [link]
Bill - I also sent the below to you via email titled Bill- What You Have Done For Me
I was in the market during the high tech bubble and had paper wins of 50K+ over two years (w/regular income of 65K/yr USD). I didn't sell (for multiple reasons). I am just now getting back into it. I have studied the market every single day since Jan 1. I read as much as I can. I try to put in two-three hours a day learning about the market. I was one of the participants in your blog survey over the summer. My goal - be in the market, wrap my head around it, and try to understand the cycles.
What have you done to help me. A LOT! I learned about you from another blog (the kirk report). Then, I read your "about me" then I decided to follow your writings for a week... then came the WIR. WOW. There was nothing better than the WIR from anyone in the market. You cover all of the bases so I can see how all markets interrelate. This is HUGE. The details you provide are wonderful. I have now recommended your website to many of my peers and family. You are a major source of REAL TIME MARKET EDUCATION Bill.
My main point is you stated you started blogging to help the avg investor better understand the HB&Bs. You are achieving that goal. I am learning. And I am enjoying it. If you are tired of the few who are critical. I bet there are 10x-100x who find your work amazingly helpful. And as you know, there would not be a market without bulls/bears.. i.e people with different views of the market. So, I think it is healthy to see different opinions on your blog. In fact, I would rather it be more argumentative in the comments section because it shows more opinions. As a reader, I make my decision on market direction. The bottom line is that I go to you for your opinion as it weighs more heavily than a "comment" from anybody. Unless, of course, you want your blog to be your opinions. I would also understand that point.
If you stop blogging, I will miss you. I will find somewhere else to get market opinion. You should be happy with what you are doing. But you will be missed. I read your WIR every Sunday. I visit your blog everyday. You share more info than one can take in (links to repts, etc). And, you do it for free. Whatever you decide, please know you have helped me understand the market much better than before I knew of you and your blog.
THANK YOU BILL
PLEASE KEEP IT UP
YOU ARE HELPING THE MASSES
Best To You
From a 37 yr old avg investor
Posted by: SoccerMatt
at
September 24, 2006 3:31 PM [link]
Bill,
There's no doubt that many people will praise you here, and my thanks may get lost in the crowd, but I wish to thank you anyway.
If ungrateful people waste your time, just delete them as you suggested. I for one make reading your blog a part of my mandatory daily routine to help me see the world with more clarity, regardless of what you type or how you type it.
MarkM's suggestions is quite good. If you feel you're getting burned out, take some time off and just let the chatter continue through the "Cara's Daily Planet" and "Bull Board".
Your work is greatly appreciated.
Cheers, and thanks again.
Posted by: Fazeli
at
September 24, 2006 4:04 PM [link]
Bill,
Just wanted to say hi and thank you for your wonderful blog. I am sorry that some people don't appreciate the insight that you are sharing but I certainly do.
In fact, you have persuaded me to get more rigorous about my sector analysis. I will be making a post at my blog on your GICS analysis for my clients.
Thanks again.
Greg Feirman
Founder/CEO, Top Gun Financial Planning
Pettiness is probably one of the most unattractive of human traits. I'd rather someone be a good liar than be petty. Those who engage in petty carping at a blogger such as Bill (I've seen it elsewhere, too, and too often they are "anonymous" posters) ought to just have their visit privileges taken away. This site (and I'll not add to the adulations of Bill here as I've done it publicly and privately)is free and contains better analysis than some paid sites. Bill, this is a perfect example as to why you should charge a fee (even nominal), to keep trolling bastards from stopping in and taking a dump.
Posted by: Leisa
at
September 24, 2006 5:47 PM [link]
Bill- I would think that your wife needs more of your time; movies, lunch, day trips. I would think that blogging could end up being an un-magnificent obsession in the end. I used to read Charles Kirk and I still look in on him from time to time, but your writing from the macro economic perspective puts the world in a clearer light for the investor/trader. Greg
Posted by: Greg Warren
at
September 24, 2006 7:18 PM [link]
Bill - Sadly, in these uncivil times, there are always people ready to criticize an analyst who is straight-ahead honest and forth-right. I believe 99.9% of your readers appreciate what you are doing. Turn the issue to your LOYAL readers. I'm sure we can help deflect the negative bozos, and keep the tone of the blog positive and investor-oriented. The last thing WE want is negativism that saps your energy! Maybe a screen for incoming messages run by loyal readers? to keep the bad vibes away?
I'm worried about the future of this blog. The Internet can throw rude jerks at you faster and longer than you can keep cool about it, if you let it get to you.
The only suggestion I can think of right now is the one Eric Alterman used on his Altercation blog on MSNBC.COM - get an intern to sort and read all your mail and delete the rude stuff first (and blacklist the senders.)
I'm really not looking forward to the post that starts off "Well, folks, it's been great, but..."
Thanks for everything , Bill.
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
September 24, 2006 11:28 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
Thanks as always for your site and the knowledge you bring with it. Reading your views and the other readers who frequent here has become a daily routine, and provides an insight and education into our financial world that no big media can give us. I am still amazed at how comprehensive your week in reviews are, and even more amazed that they are open to all and everyone. Thanks again for your gift.
Your Bill Cara Rules have been posted on my wall since I first read them. "Rule #8: Focus on the positive" was added to by my wife to include "& improve on the negative." Then she told me again to stop reading blogs. :)
As the markets start to turn, so will the morale of many investors, bringing out the worst in people and blaming the people they trust and people close-at-hand for their own problems.
"Every obnoxious act is a cry for help.� - Zig Ziglar
If the 80/20 rule applies, 80% of the people who enjoy reading your blog will be overridden by the 20% who tick you off. Hopefully the good/crap ratio isn't that bad. 100 good smelling emails will probably not get rid of the stinker in the pile. Best just to chalk it up to the other guy's bad day and throw it in the trash.
As for the 400+ emails.... the most famous blogger in the world just recently talked about his own email issues.
If you are close to "email bankruptcy", the following is an interesting read and may provide some solutions, other than my suggestion of outsourcing your email for someone else to read
http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/09/19/productivity-tips-from-merlin-mann/
Another quote from the original inspiration to my interest in the stock market.
"Of the billionaires I have known, money just brings out the basic traits in them. If they were jerks before they had money, they are simply jerks with a billion dollars.� - Warren Buffett
Maybe it's time to sell your car on e-Bay and get a new Caddy (or other boat) like above billionaire. :)
I like the link below "Winning Bid US $73,200.00"
"Get low monthly payments"
warmest regards... apologies for adding to the email pile.
ALOHA !!
I will make this short, because I have been out of "the loop" the past week. I had surgery and can barely move my fingers to type. That, though, is of no consequence compared to the passing of my Father on Wednesday.
As one of the lead geophysicists for Chevron Oil he and his family(me)were moved all over the World in search of the ever illusive "black gold". Some of his major finds were Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela and Barrow Island, Australia as well as Gulf Of Mexico. In the late fifties I recall cruising in his homemade plywood boat from one well to another on Lake Maracaibo ... so many you could almost walk across the lake on oil rig platforms. What was my Dad's credentials? Other than his degrees, he was the Son of another oil man who was a wildcater in Kilgore, TX and Signal Hill, CA. That is why one of his favorite movies was "Giant" ... The long line of fruits from those labors was the eventual creation of Desilu Studios, Disneyland Hotel, The Balboa Club, the teleprompter patent, the Spruce Goose and the Queen Mary. Too many stories that spread over many industries and many decades and many lives.
The point of all this is that there are fewer and fewer men these days, like my Father, that actually can be classified as a producer and an ever greater, more rapidly growing number that are for a better word, "leeches", living off the welfare of producers.
As a side note one of the last conversations i had with one of the last great explorers of oil was ... "Buddy boy ... that Florida find on CNN is not new and if the US government and environmentalists in California would open up the Channel Islands off the California coast they would find a lot more oil than the latest Florida media hype ... As long as I have been in this business the only stumbling block to exploration and production has been government and government red tape ... They all stand there with their hands out! As long as I have been alive ... The government charges you more for a gallon of gas than Chevron does ... Where is the Congressional Committee for that?"
I always keep in mind that the leaders and employees of government and Wall Street have never produced any real wealth and never will. Debt is not wealth ... Someday that reality will break the World.
Posted by: kaimu
at
September 25, 2006 4:03 AM [link]

Cost of gasoline predictions, a true adventure winding down the campaign trail to November elections:
Last night 9/23/06 or the Fall Equinox & Rosh Hashanah, Hugo's ( as in Hugo Chavez the prez of VZ) corner gas station (Citgo) dropped the price below the $2.00 barrier, in fact it was $1.98 and no other station in town matched it, not even WMT's Hudson Oil.
On another note:
Thanks Bill for all your efforts, you've made me see and read more in my retirement years than anyone else around. Please know I'm better and richer for it :)
Posted by: C.Note
at
September 24, 2006 7:49 AM [link]