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September 16, 2006

Week #37 (2006-09-16) in Review (FINAL)

Is the four-year commodities boom finally over or is this merely a big bump in the road.

The MarketWatch story for the weekend leads with the following introduction:

"A four-year rally that drove prices of crude oil, natural-gas and copper to record levels and gold and silver to quarter-century highs has reversed with steep declines in the past few weeks, leading some to question whether the price boom in commodities has finally run its course."

In the Week 34-2006 WIR (Aug-26), I wrote: "A week ago I said $CRB was down but not out. $CRB rallied this week due to metals and oil."

In the Week 35-2006 WIR (Sept-2), I wrote: "Two weeks ago I said $CRB was down but not out. It is close to being over and out. $CRB dropped -3.22 pct W/W and is now well below the 40-Week and 50-Day Moving Average lines. When above, these MA's represent support; when below, they represent resistance. What the commodity market is saying " and this goes for bonds too -- is that inflation is no longer a problem worth worrying about because a slower economy will take care of that. That's fine if the USD reverses its present course, which is south."

It's not as if I didn't see this coming. And you do know that except for a couple pre-production precious metals plays (KRY for one) that supersede my interest in the short-term market action, I have been very bearish/nervous in my general outlook for most of this year.

Moreover, there are times I do go neutral on gold (disinflation, strong $USD), so I can't be classified as a perma-Bull for commodities.

So why haven't I opined that the four-year commodities boom is over and out? It's because I believe that the $USD is being artificially supported right now by the U.S. Administration, and the "Rangers".

The Rangers are those gazillionaire gnomes and bankers, and their shills in the media, who support the Republican Party. Let's face it, there is an important U.S. election coming up soon, and the GOP face a possible loss of control of both houses in Congress.

So there is a flat-out "War On Losing" going on inside the U.S. presently. And as we all know, politics supersedes capital markets.

Don't you just love that word "supersedes"?

There are roughly 6.2 billion people in the world (me included) who don't give two hoots whether the Republicans or Democrats win. To us it doesn't matter.

What does matter is that the twin deficits problem of the U.S. be addressed in a serious manner, but you know, in a political season, there are Rangers who will tell you economics don't matter. It's all about getting re-elected, Stupid!

So, this week I wasn't surprised when I heard the NYSE floor trader say that the all-time record deficit in the U.S. Trade Balance didn't matter, in fact (he said) it was good because it meant the American consumer was buying more foreign goods, which in turn meant the economy was strong. I wasn't surprised when the NYSE rallied immediately thereafter.

Look, this is Silly Season. Don't look any further for answers.

Am I saying that there is a conspiracy in moving markets higher? Not entirely. There are plenty of Democrats right now buying up markets. Some of them may even be Talking Heads.

Why? Well the question ought to be, "Why let financial realities get in the way of a good rally?" There's your answer.

I believe that only a few people know how a flood of gasoline hit the market, driving down prices across North America, in the biggest week of summer driving season, which started in my city (Toronto) on August 7.

And, only a few people know why the price of West Texas Intermediate plunged well before Brent Crude, taking the price to a couple dollars below Brent. I don't know who they are, but I believe the Nexus will be Texas.

Every great trader is a Skeptic. To be otherwise means they suffer Credulity Syndrome. Believing (stories of the sell-side) is Losing.

Let's not put too fine a point on any alleged data point that is reported in the U.S. until the voters have decided how they are going to vote in this U.S. election. And, let's all hope there is no Florida Replay this November.

I won't drag this out. The most highly respected global banks are forecasting " generally speaking " higher commodity prices in 2007. Inflation is not dead. After the "War On Losing" has had its day, lower $USD to come. Hence, higher interest rates to come.

;Then a tough year ahead for the U.S. of A. until the mortgage foreclosure problem becomes so acute that rates will drop, and the watershed result will be a whole new economic, stock and bond cycle.


Global Market Summary

International Equities: Not all the international markets were smilin'. The U.S. traded ETF's for Japan (EWJ) (-2.1 pct) and Canada (EWC) (-1.8 pct) took hits this week. One is an oil user; the other a producer. So that wasn't it. Also one currency was up (CAD) was up; the other down (JPY). So that wasn't it either.

U.S. Equities : Down one week; up the next. This week it was up. Moonshot actually. Nasdaq Composite was up +3.2 pct, the Russell 2000 small cap was up +2.9 pct, while the Dow and S&P 500 were up +1.5 pct and +1.6 pct, respectively. But not respectfully.

Dow 30 : There were 24 Dow stocks up and 5 down. The Coke was flat. KO'd actually. Home Depot was launched +8.6 pct W/W (I suppose Nardelli made a contribution to the right party [yet another pun], which is ok I suppose because with his tax-paid mega-million compensation, all American's are paying for it. Tell me; does Ranger Bob also get a write-off for his deductions or does that go back to the shareholders.) Eight of 30 Dow stocks were up +3.0 pct or more, but you can tell I don't much care. No more than for a silicone-filled brassiere.

U.S. Sector ETFs: There were 7 ETF's up and 3 down, "with last week's big loser (-3.0 pct) XLE also being this week's big loser (-3.1 pct)" being this week's loser too (that's three), going down -3.9 pct. I wonder if T. Boone Pickens was trading against his hype, or truly, has his 5 billion dollar hedge fund become 4 billion this month? Yah, maybe it's now $6 billion. Think about it.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (-3.9 pct); Still last as Crude Oil prices fell again
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #9 (-1.8 pct); Sec. "Gold"man is in fine form
20: Industrials (XLI): #5 (+1.7 pct); HON, MMM, BA, GE;GOP (pun but fun)
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #1 (+3.5 pct); Telling poor people they got $$$
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+0.2 pct); Not so staple
35: Healthcare (IYH): #6 (+1.5 pct); War On Generics & BMY up +7.5 pct again
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #4 (+2.1 pct); GS (+8.6 pct), LEH (+8.3 pct W/W)
45: Tech (SMH chips): #2 (+3.1 pct); #9 to #1 to #8 to #1 to #9 to #2
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #3 (+2.3 pct); The Nexus is Texas
55: Utilities (XLU): #8 (-1.7 pct); More weakness

Bonds: A very strange but quiet week. Maybe time spent cleaning the guns pre-PPI and pre-FOMC next week?

Commodities: Washington has this way of making +0.2423 look amazingly like +0.1501. Aw shucks, it's only an election. $CRB dropped -4.4 pct W/W (which is hard money; not the paper they print in D.C.).

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were down -3.4 pct W/W to 64.02. Things are improving; a week ago, the contract was down -4.3 pct. Going with the flow.

Gold: The Little Paupers did not succeed this week because the $USD is looking like paper with a gilt edge. A week ago I wrote: "$GOLD dropped -2.3 pct W/W to 610.48, perhaps seeking a bottom in the 590-600 range." I wish! Maybe the bottom is 560, or 540; or;. $GOLD dropped -5.5 pct to 576.67 with a intra-week low of 570.94. The Rangers are smilin' but just wait til they try to bring back oil. Not even GS is going to help stop the gold rush.

Goldminers: The goldminers were down -10 to -12 pct in the U.S. and Canada respectively. Definitely no respect. Sadly, old winners are new whiners.

Forex: $USD had a surprisingly quiet week. The $USD was headed south until George W. started campaigning; er, "addressing the nation" on Friday.


Sector ETF:

Seven of the ten sector ETF's were up, and some by a lot.

A week ago, I wrote: "This was a short week, and five of the eight losers were down -0.50 pct or less. So I wouldn't read too much into it. The market could have gone the other way."

You might say I could smell smoke.

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLY 34.46 0.08 0.23% 3.51% 4.68% 4.11% 4.42% 3.51% 1.74% 3.89%
SMH 34.35 -0.06 -0.17% 3.12% 0.76% 4.15% -9.41% 3.15% -6.76% -6.91%
IYZ 27.45 -0.13 -0.47% 2.31% 2.27% 4.49% 19.50% 9.02% 6.52% 15.43%
XLF 34.15 -0.03 -0.09% 2.06% 2.03% 1.97% 6.06% 6.02% 3.27% 14.98%
XLI 32.73 0.03 0.09% 1.68% 1.49% 0.37% 3.48% -1.86% -2.71% 9.03%
IYH 65.54 0.00 0.00% 1.49% 0.99% 2.60% 3.00% 7.99% 1.00% 3.77%
XLP 25.58 -0.10 -0.39% 0.16% 0.24% 2.16% 9.13% 7.25% 6.49% 10.59%
XLU 33.77 -0.21 -0.62% -1.72% -2.88% -0.56% 5.53% 4.23% 4.55% 0.69%
XLB 31.17 -0.21 -0.67% -1.83% -2.29% -1.61% 0.81% 0.61% -3.59% 12.16%
XLE 51.85 0.00 0.00% -3.89% -6.86% -8.39% -1.61% -2.98% -3.36% -0.13%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

Also, Yahoo Finance has an ETF info service in beta testing right now that looks interesting. At Yahoo Finance, key in the ETF ticker symbol of your choice and use the left nav bar to see all the stuff that's available today (or coming), including the ETF's top ten holdings. Excellent.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU



Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE was down -3.89 pct. A week ago it was down -3.09 pct. The week earlier XLE was down -2.95 pct.

The price of $WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) closed Friday at 64.02, and actually hit a low of 62.80, which is not pay dirt, unless you have been busy buying $USD and selling $WTIC.

But Goldman Sachs is still counting on $75 oil.

And on Friday, Credit Suisse told us that that master of all economists, "the International Monetary Fund (IMF), revised its 2007 forecast for oil prices upward, by 20% to USD 75.50/barrel, which should be perceived by market participants as positive news."

I quote CS word for word (see page 5 of the report). Download Credit Suisse Sept. 15 Commodities report.

So, which "market participants" are happy that these all-knowing powers have forecasted $75.50 oil?

Also bear in mind that whenever you see a number like this, it means an average of 75.50, which could possibly mean (mean, median, whatever [lol]) a range of say 65 to 86 or 55 to 96, or, the way the world is going, 45 to 106. Could even be, if Steve Forbes has it right, from 35 (yuk yuk) to 116.

In any event, I don't see too many of the Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Credit Suisse crowd forecasting oil prices much lower than what we have today. Do you think they have too many oil sheiks as clients?

Minimum account size at HB&B: one billion USD. Can't you see it coming?


Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Monthly Data

XLE Weekly data:


XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data:

XLE Daily Data

XLE Hourly data:

XLE Hourly Data

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CEO 81.76 1.27 1.58% -1.09% -6.21% -7.44% 18.17% 7.79% 1.06% 16.32%
IMO 33.68 0.26 0.78% -1.69% -10.83% -13.31% -67.62% -0.94% -66.69% -68.87%
TOT 63.04 -0.09 -0.14% -1.78% -6.51% -7.20% -51.53% 2.25% -51.45% -52.62%
XOM 64.65 -0.06 -0.09% -3.23% -4.46% -5.04% 10.57% 9.35% 5.95% 3.51%
CVX 61.79 -0.26 -0.42% -3.78% -4.05% -6.59% 4.59% 3.97% 9.36% -1.06%
STO 24.12 -0.22 -0.90% -4.48% -10.77% -10.77% -0.04% -10.80% -9.26% -4.13%
PBR 79.25 -0.98 -1.22% -5.37% -11.61% -13.65% 6.06% 0.99% -12.46% 16.94%
SU 67.36 -0.04 -0.06% -5.71% -13.17% -14.51% 2.79% -9.05% -11.53% 13.55%
ECA 45.53 -1.19 -2.55% -8.08% -13.67% -14.74% -2.51% -7.14% -3.95% -9.88%

Big Oil (Exxon Mobil and Chevron Texaco) were down -3.2 pct and -3.8 pct respectively, which was worse than a week earlier. But I still note that Big Money seems more intent on coming out of the Canadian, Brazilian and European energy stocks.

EnCana was down -8.1 pct, Suncor was down -5.7 pct, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. was down -5.4 pct, and Statoil ASA was down -4.5 pct W/W " which means, I suppose (yuk yuk) that the rest of the world is slowing down its economic pace so much faster than the U.S. of A.

Well, maybe during Silly Season.

"All the stocks I follow in this sector were down this week and many were thoroughly sliced and diced."

Talking about knives, my face is feeling " not looking " a little better. Stitches come out on Tuesday.

But I wonder if I stop laughing?


Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

A week ago I wrote that "This week, Canadian oil and gas stocks fared poorly " Suncor and EnCana included. With the relatively high cost to produce in the oil sands, these stocks are particularly volatile. As the price of crude falls into the mid-60's or lower, these stocks will have major losses."

Enough said. These stocks will also have very good days ahead, although I wonder if the small independent trader wants to be day-trading them, which seems to be necessary.



Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)


The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) lost -0.47 pct W/W to close at 31.75.

A week ago I wrote something I still feel strongly about: "But these are economic cyclicals that may have downside ahead. If Industrial Production is going to flourish and crude prices decline, these are solid companies and good looking stocks. I'm just not sure I'd want to chase them here."

Great advice as Monday, Thursday and Friday were killers.

Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLB Monthly data:

XLB Monthly Data

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data

XLB Daily data:

XLB Daily Data

XLB Hourly data:

XLB Hourly Data


Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
N 76.46 0.00 0.00% -0.23% -1.91% -0.82% 76.70% 26.78% 63.24% 79.40%
PKX 61.44 0.88 1.45% -0.65% -1.08% 1.74% 22.27% 1.00% -2.43% 14.91%
AA 28.13 0.27 0.97% -1.92% -1.61% -1.33% -5.92% -7.04% -5.92% 6.63%
ACH 65.80 0.14 0.21% -3.66% -6.13% -0.15% -17.13% -6.86% -37.84% 16.65%
RIO 20.85 0.05 0.24% -3.78% -2.75% -7.74% -3.02% -6.38% -7.58% 9.33%
GGB 13.87 -0.11 -0.79% -4.28% -4.48% -11.09% -20.33% 3.97% -43.46% 0.65%
NUE 46.76 0.10 0.21% -5.86% -4.32% -7.92% 34.83% -8.21% -3.81% 58.62%
RTP 184.88 -3.40 -1.81% -6.26% -8.23% -10.70% -2.08% -9.79% -4.68% 22.27%
BHP 37.54 -0.35 -0.92% -6.78% -10.83% -11.80% 7.26% -7.13% 3.22% 17.31%
PD 83.73 -0.45 -0.53% -8.08% -6.45% -6.98% 12.13% 3.83% 14.53% 51.55%

Just like the oils, "All the stocks I follow in this sector were down this week and many were thoroughly sliced and diced."

Not even N was good for a nickel, and its new owner RIO was no Valley of Sweetness.

I understand that the Brazilian government, which controls CVRD (NYSE: RIO), might want to nationalize the Valley. Does that mean that Brazil ends up owning half of Sudbury Ontario? If so, they might wish to bring their dog sleds to Canada for the winters.

Nothing can stop these Brazilians now that they have their Berge Stahl -- world's largest bulk ship -- taking iron ore to China from the biggest mine in the Valley, and the world.

But I do love CVRD's "Capital Social". I just love the "valores" of their "responsabilidade socioambiental".

Now, there is a miner after my own heart, and a position in the Cara 100.

And speaking of heart, did you see the Merrill Lynch report on Precious Metals, dated Sept 7? ML dropped their 2006 gold price estimate from 650 to 625, saying that "this implies bullion has to average around $680/oz for the balance of 2006."

Kaboom! Maybe Merrill Lynch doesn't have an office in Texas? Do you think?

Besides, to all those who jumped off the gold bandwagon at Big Doubt TX or was that Possum Trot KY (I've been there), you ought to know that Merrill Lynch left the 2007 forecast for gold bullion at 675.

Actually, Merrill Lynch had some neat charts in this report, which I'll show because they really come from the World Gold Council. I'd like to publish the whole thing, plus one on Iamgold (which they rate a Buy), but ML apparently employs 1,000 lawyers they call Managing Director, and all had a hand in writing the copyright warning. (lol)

But there are a few points I picked up in this ML report, such as:
• They raised their 2007 silver price forecast from US$9.00 to $12.00. their 2008 forecast from $9.00 to $11.00, and their 2009 forecast from $9.00 to $10.00. Very timely. (lol)
• They are keeping their 2008 spot gold price forecast at 600, and 2007 at 650. Do you know how much coin these prices make for the producers? Lots and lots.
• Central bank sales of gold averages 500 tons per year, and will through 2010, but did you know that gold scrap puts between 880 and 1100 tons a year into the market every year. So people, stop throwing away those used computers. And, who would ever think that gold could be scrap? Wisen up; the stuff is worth almost $650 an oz, or soon will be according to ML.
• Starting in 2007 through 2010, demand from gold jewellery will average 2800 tons per year, but global production is forecast to be 2500 oz on average. So in effect, the U.S. govt is supporting your purchase of gold jewellery by keeping the price so low with their Fed sales. I say, if some idiot wants to give you money, take it. Buy more gold jewellery.
• And buy more computers because Electronics and Industrial demand is averaging about 300 tons per year. The U.S. Administration doesn't want you to stop buying electronics, and they are helping keep the price down, so I say buy more of that too.
• And dentistry takes some 62 tons per year, so visit your dentist often. Those gold fillings come subsidized.
• Gold coins? There's 180 tons per year, so buy those coins;
• ETF's? Oh, this is a touchy subject because it means you have to literally and figuratively "trust" Humungous Bank & Broker to actually live up to their fiduciary responsibilities by not lending out the gold behind your ETF. So far, there's been a total of some 400 tons go into ETF's in just over three years. For 5 years forward, counting this year, that total will include another 711 tons, all courtesy of the Fed. Thank you. But do we get to hire the independent auditor?
• Too the reader who didn't think there is a strong correlation between the price of gold and silver, this report, using Bloomberg data, says the correlation is +0.97 pct, which is about as close to perfect as you can get.
• And the US$ gold price correlated to the US$/Euro exchange rate was 0.9513 from Sept-2001 through May-2005, and +0.828 from Nov-2005 through today, which is pretty high, and between gold and oil prices, that correlation from Sept 11, 2001, trough today is .808, which is also high.
• Jewellery demand in the rest of the world dwarfs that of America, who I suppose would rather spend their money on gas-guzzling SUV's and monster houses.


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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)


The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was up strongly by +1.78 pct W/W to 32.73.

Isn't it amazing that when political campaigns start up, so too do the shares of those employers with the best paying jobs: companies like Honeywell (HON +3.8 pct), 3M (MMM +3.7 pct), Boeing (BA +3.0 pct), GE (2.5 pct), United Technologies (UTX +2.0 pct).

Then in the Consumer Staples, you have all the Wal-Mart shoppers (WMT +3.2 pct) and all the Whole Foods Market shoppers (WFMI +5.9 pct) thinking things are just peachy.

Peach-flavored latte you say? Just a gazillion taxpayers, and consumers with discretion, sitting around in Starbucks (SBUX) happily watching their stock up +8.5 pct this week.

I'll get into Wall Street when I get to XLF (GICS 40). That's another story beyond belief.

Is there such a thing as selective pumping? I'm serious about this. The majority of miners, oil workers and foreign headquartered banks are non-Americans. They don't vote.

I guess it's a matter of, "You don't have any say in the matter? Your shares don't get pumped in America at election time. We're busy fighting our War On Losing."

I'd like to let this go because I've already more than made the point, and besides I really don't care if the Red or Blue side wins " I have no stake " but there were three things that bothered me greatly this week.

First, I thought VP Dick Cheney was dead. At least I thought he was not much inclined for dog-and-pont shws on Home Shopping Network, but no, very early on Sept 11, there he was on TV; pump pump..pump the War On Terror. Then Larry Kudlow did a screaming act on Thursday night on his CNBC show when he lambasted the View's Rosie O'Donnell for saying far less than I hear from others like "Politically Incorrect" Bill Maher.

Now that's TV I'd pay for. Cheney vs Maher and Kudlow vs O'Donnell.

"Let's get it on." If they're "Ready 2 Rumble", I'm ready to watch. We'll get back to the market in December after the smoke clears.


Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Monthly Data

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data:

XLI Daily Data

XLI Hourly data:

XLI Hourly Data

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
HON 39.75 0.72 1.84% 3.84% 2.66% 1.61% 6.11% 2.11% -7.23% 2.98%
MMM 74.14 0.61 0.83% 3.68% 3.40% 4.13% -6.28% -8.36% 0.19% 1.13%
BA 75.01 0.00 0.00% 3.04% 0.15% -4.56% 6.64% -11.56% -1.37% 15.26%
GE 34.85 0.07 0.20% 2.47% 2.32% 2.74% -1.47% 2.17% 1.25% 1.37%
UTX 64.61 1.61 2.56% 2.01% 3.03% 4.29% 14.29% 6.25% 11.53% 27.49%
TYC 26.51 0.14 0.53% 1.14% 1.38% -0.56% -10.56% -2.36% 0.42% -9.37%
CBE 82.05 -0.49 -0.59% 1.11% 0.21% -5.52% 11.06% -5.64% -2.96% 19.41%
ERJ 40.71 -0.12 -0.29% -2.56% 5.47% 13.87% 3.69% 15.78% 1.32% 14.45%
CAT 65.43 -0.08 -0.12% -2.81% -1.39% -5.67% 13.20% -7.65% -11.93% 13.32%

Look at this week's wins in HON, MMM and GE. HON was up +3.84 pct, which brought the 12-month gain to +2.98 pct.

Another one that had quite a year this week was CNBC owner (and agitator?) GE, which was up this week +2.47 pct, bringing the year up to a gain of +1.37 pct. Amazing what elections can do.

And MMM's gain this week of +3.68 pct was enough to put the shareholders in the black by +1.13 pct.

And UTX was up this week by +2.01 pct, but selling elevators to a country that actually needs them has been quite a gig " until the Chinese start building their own. UTX has been up +27.49 pct for the past 12-months.

I think the Chinese authorities are hoping the $USD drops, so United Technologies can give away more elevators. Or maybe UTX can fly Secretary Paulson to more meetings with the Chinese in hopes he can get the People's Bank to goose the Yuan.

Peking Duck anybody? Now, before it gets priced out of sight " the bird that laid the golden egg.


Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +3.51 pct W/W to 34.46, which was enough to put XLY into top spot again.

A week ago I wrote: "The minute that traders decide that their brothers and sisters have too few coins in their jeans, this sector will suffer. Heads or tails came up heads this week again; But if its heads for XLY and tails for XLE; Later it'll be enough coin to fill up the SUV but not to pay the house mortgage, and as some wag said on CNBC, "People can sleep in their car, but they need that car to drive to a pay check"; Somebody a while back said in the comment section that people will walk away from their house when they realize they can't simply chop off an extra bedroom or two to cut the mortgage rate down to size."

Don't you just love the Wall Street patter?

I should know. In my former life, I used to call myself "Dream Merchant".

So I smell a rat when it's around.

Now I call myself "Rat Catcher". (lol)

But everybody needs a good laugh. I got mine watching CNBC's Cramer yesterday. His new pitch must be based on the notion that if you can't fight ‘em, join ‘em. He was acknowledging the (literally, figuratively, whatever) unbelievable power of the Consumer Discretionary sector.

Now, I hope we all know that this strength in XLY is a political stratagem, but Cramer actually put a new (unheard of before) spin on things. He said (on-air) that if a company is struggling with inventory, it's actually a good thing.

You got houses (like the home-builders) or hammers (like Home Depot)? No matter, because you got inventory, and you know what you can do with that inventory? You can sell it, and make a profit!

I kid you not.

Cramer 101.

It's all comedy folks. The real market went the way of real money; to Jurassic Park.

Apatosaurus, Cearadactylus, Dilophosaurus, Euoplocephalus, Hadrosaurus, Hypsilophodon, Maiasaura, Microceratops, Othnielia, Procompsognathus, Stegosaurus, Styracosaurus, Triceratops, Tyrannosaurus, U.S. Dollars, Velociraptor.

Note: I'm just a little ahead of my time; like all good traders.


Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLY Monthly data:

XLY Monthly Data

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Weekly Data

XLY Daily data:

XLY Daily Data

XLY Hourly data:

XLY Hourly Data

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
SBUX 33.85 0.82 2.48% 8.53% 9.16% 8.18% 9.65% -7.99% -7.29% 43.13%
WHR 88.62 0.92 1.05% 7.68% 9.53% 11.29% 7.20% 8.13% -0.45% 14.56%
BC 30.22 0.36 1.21% 2.86% 5.30% 0.17% -25.97% -11.43% -20.81% -30.08%
CCL 43.81 0.23 0.53% 2.62% 4.56% 10.13% -19.72% 14.78% -14.05% -11.78%
DIS 30.31 -0.08 -0.26% 2.47% 2.23% 1.37% 24.22% 3.84% 5.43% 26.29%
NKE 82.97 0.20 0.24% 1.12% 2.74% 7.81% -3.47% -0.69% -2.41% 5.11%
JCP 64.73 -0.58 -0.89% 0.87% 2.68% -5.68% 14.67% -1.69% 4.22% 31.86%
TM 106.16 -0.49 -0.46% -0.19% -2.01% -5.53% -0.65% 5.33% -2.06% 23.44%
EBAY 27.85 -0.26 -0.92% -2.31% -0.04% 0.65% -37.36% -9.40% -28.81% -26.03%

The Big Spenders had another good week. Actually they had a good month on Monday and Tuesday when the 9/11 horror and the War On Terror was formally remembered and the Impecunious American helped to forget his own problems.

But don't get me started. It's a touchy subject, and I don't wish to end up on the wrong side of Kudlow, like Bill Maher or Rosie.

Anyway, my EBAY took a hit of -2.3 pct this week after being up +14.8 pct in the previous 4-weeks. Nobody has a $USD or two for purchases on Ebay, but they now have plenty of coin to buy appliances for the houses they cannot afford. Must be true, because Whirlpool (WHR) was up +7.7 pct in a single week.

Maybe poor people need a dishwasher for the back seat of the automobile they have to move into? Do you think?

What I find amazing is that a couple weeks ago (Week 34- Aug-26), the HB&B Talking Heads were all telling us that Little People had no tickee. Classic Schadenfreude.

But now, at election time, everybody's flush? Puleese. Give me a break.


Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

This week the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained just +0.16 pct to close at 25.58, which is a gain of 4 cents.

Wall Street wouldn't want you to think it's ok to take refuge in these defensive places when there's a serious rally going on. Would they?


Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLP Monthly data:

XLP Monthly Data

XLP Weekly data:


XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data:


XLP Daily Data


XLP Hourly data:


XLP Hourly Data

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
WFMI 56.32 -0.65 -1.14% 5.94% 5.04% 1.94% -26.95% -10.30% -8.65% -15.70%
WMT 48.22 -0.15 -0.31% 3.21% 7.83% 8.04% 4.30% -0.90% 6.40% 8.80%
ABV 45.03 0.10 0.22% 1.19% 0.38% 3.16% 16.84% 20.27% 1.53% 25.68%
PEP 65.03 0.48 0.74% 0.46% -0.38% 3.78% 8.82% 10.07% 8.28% 16.77%
MO 83.14 0.10 0.12% 0.20% -0.47% 2.96% 10.88% 17.80% 12.55% 15.07%
KO 44.60 0.02 0.04% 0.00% -0.47% 0.95% 9.05% 3.62% 4.38% 2.22%
BUD 47.31 0.38 0.81% -0.23% -4.19% -3.09% 8.34% 4.16% 9.11% 5.02%
DEO 70.17 -0.13 -0.18% -0.27% -1.86% -1.98% 17.81% 3.60% 8.37% 18.41%
PG 60.90 0.13 0.21% -0.39% -1.62% 0.93% 3.61% 10.97% 1.67% 9.73%
WAG 49.96 0.00 0.00% -1.87% 1.01% 0.64% 10.07% 15.14% 10.75% 12.40%

On Friday, the President was "addressing" the nation. Consumer Staples (XLP) was down on the day -0.39 pct.

I think the two go hand in hand. We cannot have bullish traders thinking it is acceptable procedure to be going on the defensive when the President is speaking now, can we?


Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +1.49 pct W/W to close at 65.54, but was flat (totally zip) on Friday. Healthcare is a political issue you know.

And guess what else was flat (totally zip) on Friday?

You got it: XLE " Big Oil. Can't be disappointing the good folks living anywhere near Irving TX now, can we.


Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Monthly Data

IYH Weekly data:


IYH Weekly Data

IYH Daily data:


IYH Daily Data

IYH Hourly data:


IYH Hourly Data

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
BMY 24.92 0.24 0.97% 7.51% 14.57% 16.01% 7.23% -1.39% 9.44% 1.30%
AET 39.21 -0.61 -1.53% 7.42% 5.21% 8.31% -16.63% -0.81% -23.67% -3.19%
BMET 33.89 0.41 1.22% 3.73% 3.61% 2.39% -8.11% -4.54% -7.25% -7.63%
AMGN 69.77 0.13 0.19% 2.71% 2.72% 4.26% -13.18% 3.45% -6.84% -16.52%
UNH 52.21 0.40 0.77% 2.57% 0.50% 6.46% -15.42% 16.67% -8.95% -2.23%
PFE 28.04 -0.16 -0.57% 1.63% 1.74% 3.85% 17.91% 19.17% 8.05% 9.11%
NVS 57.06 -0.05 -0.09% 1.60% -0.11% 0.09% 6.71% 8.71% 1.89% 15.55%
GSK 55.35 -0.05 -0.09% 0.49% -2.52% 0.87% 8.61% 1.39% 1.23% 11.55%
JNJ 63.79 0.06 0.09% 0.31% -1.35% -0.69% 3.50% 3.77% 6.67% -0.90%
DNA 78.99 0.89 1.14% -3.75% -4.28% -4.05% -15.97% 0.97% -5.38% -12.48%

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is trying hard to stay in the Cara 100. Firing the CEO is helping me make up my mind.

The stock is up +14.6 pct in two weeks. A week ago, before the Board fired the CEO, BMY was up over +7.0 pt as well, which I noted. Leak anybody? Do you think somebody needs to call a private investigator to have the Board's telephone records checked?

Then again, a friendly judge might have helped the cause.


Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) gained +2.06 pct W/W to close at 34.15.

It's not so bad Wall Street has to pay those unconscionable senior management bonuses at year-end, now they feel the need to make the pension investments of staff look good too. After all, it is election time.

Goldman Sachs (GS) (+8.6 pct), Lehman Bros (LEH) (+8.3 pct), Morgan Stanley (MS) (+6.4 pct) and Merrill Lynch (MER) (+6.1 pct) made their quotas for the quarter this week.

Isn't it amazing that the biggest parts of Humungous Bank & Broker can become, on average, +7.4 pct richer in a single week?

Think about it. They must have royally screwed their clients in the energy and metals futures markets this month.

Somebody did.

Ah, but like I say: the Little Paupers will get theirs one day.

How many years ago was it that Fed chairman Greenspan sent his Number Two to Saudi Arabia to give away the keys to Citigroup to a young and handsome Prince?

How many years from now will it be before Bernanke sends his Number Two to Beijing to give away the keys to (name your HB&B target) to the Central Committee?


Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Monthly Data

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Weekly Data

XLF Daily data:

XLF Daily Data

XLF Hourly data:

XLF Hourly Data

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
GS 162.71 0.19 0.12% 8.62% 9.46% 5.35% 26.26% 12.90% 9.20% 40.33%
LEH 71.61 -0.43 -0.60% 8.29% 12.22% 6.72% 10.27% 12.38% -0.64% 28.31%
MS 70.95 0.63 0.90% 6.39% 7.84% 5.00% 21.39% 23.76% 18.96% 0.00%
MER 77.16 0.77 1.01% 6.12% 4.94% 1.66% 12.71% 13.72% -2.08% 29.16%
DB 117.41 0.83 0.71% 4.25% 2.71% 4.32% 18.05% 10.03% 3.17% 28.32%
JPM 46.95 0.45 0.97% 3.73% 2.83% 3.28% 16.82% 15.64% 13.90% 37.56%
CSR 57.56 1.34 2.38% 3.40% 2.97% 2.80% 7.89% 6.42% 1.09% 27.66%
UBS 57.12 0.35 0.62% 1.22% 0.62% -1.13% 15.74% 8.63% 3.93% 34.34%
C 49.19 -0.10 -0.20% 0.96% -0.32% 1.28% -0.20% 1.05% 4.64% 9.24%
HBC 89.99 0.05 0.06% 0.69% -1.04% -0.41% 10.17% 3.15% 4.36% 10.83%

This is just unbelievable.

But what happened to Hong Kong Bank, or Citigroup, or UBS? I guess they don't get theirs until late October-early November.


Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Let's fool the Little People into believing that American Technology rules. What happened to Sir Ellison, the Pauper who made it from literally the trash can to the penthouse.

What's his California house worth? $250 million? Only in America.

This week, the semi-conductor ETF (SMH) gained +3.12 pct to close at 34.45, but Friday was a down day. I guess California still resents the President.


Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Monthly Data

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Weekly Data

SMH Daily data:

SMH Daily Data

SMH Hourly data:

SMH Hourly Data

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
ADBE 37.00 3.41 10.15% 16.32% 14.06% 8.79% -3.95% 27.76% -0.22% 37.55%
ADSK 35.79 1.30 3.77% 6.87% 2.96% 2.29% -16.28% -2.45% -9.60% -16.40%
INFY 46.91 0.24 0.51% 5.44% 4.59% 7.79% -41.69% -32.66% -34.30% -35.49%
SAP 48.64 0.02 0.04% 5.10% 1.89% 1.91% 5.85% -3.63% -8.19% 13.04%
CSCO 22.79 0.08 0.35% 4.78% 3.64% 9.30% 30.60% 12.71% 6.30% 26.40%
SNDK 58.51 -0.35 -0.59% 3.56% -0.70% 13.97% -13.57% 7.46% 3.50% 33.25%
CTSH 71.57 -1.61 -2.20% 3.35% 2.37% 1.92% 41.19% 13.59% 24.53% 55.22%
ORCL 16.33 -0.13 -0.79% 2.64% 4.35% 3.29% 29.60% 19.20% 23.34% 22.14%
QCOM 36.81 -0.39 -1.05% 0.74% -2.28% -1.05% -16.34% -18.00% -26.10% -12.88%
INTC 19.53 -0.22 -1.11% 0.41% -0.05% 5.28% -23.62% 7.78% -1.96% -20.45%

The winners this week were a couple Cara 100 favorites, Adobe and Autodesk. ADBE was up +16.3 pct " including +10.2 pct on Friday. Wow, I wasn't watching. I left early.

Did they get a call from a friendly SEC commissioner to say that backdating options is something that won't be investigated until after the November election " on account of, like meeting Bill Ford, that might be considered "political"?

ADSK was up +6.8 pct. Boy, that helps. Brings the 12-month loss down to -16.4 pct.



Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up +2.31 pct W/W to close at 27.45. Just cranking along.

Try the Yahoo Finance ETF holdings link for IYZ to see what was happening here. All I know is that the ETF was stronger than T and VZ this week.

As you can see from the Yahoo data on the IYZ telco ETF, T and VZ, the two Dow 30 companies, make up 40 pct of the IYZ.



Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Monthly Data

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Weekly Data

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Daily Data

IYZ Hourly data:

IYZ Hourly Data


Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) lost again. A week ago, it was -1.2 pct W/W. This week it was -1.72 pct to close at 33.77.

A week ago I wrote: "After hitting a 52-week high a week ago Friday at $61.18, Exelon (EXC) hit a speed bump. The group was down."

Bonds were mostly flat, so I'm surprised at the loss. Maybe we've had a Goldilocks Summer " not too warm to draw on the power grid or too cold to get the People ordering more fuel for the winter to heat their homes.

Or maybe it's not Bond Traders who are the smartest people on earth. Maybe it's the Utilities group.

After all, they got to have theirs AC-DC when the regulators let them set up subsidiaries for unregulated businesses. These people aren't so dumb.

Well maybe the late Mr. Lay and the indisposed Mr. Shilling. I forgot about those two Texans.

Then again, maybe Texans do get theirs after all.

Do you really think that if HB&B was truly independent and not doing the AC-DC thing that Enron could have happened? I don't think so. There was no check and balance with Enron. It was all checks and no balance.

..Until one of the Little People spoke up.

Again, go to the new Yahoo Finance site for ETF's like XLU and you will discover lots of useful information.


Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Monthly Data

XLU Weekly data:


XLU Weekly Data

XLU Daily data:

XLU Daily Data

XLU Hourly data:

XLU Hourly Data


Bonds:


There was not much at all happening in the U.S. bond market this week. Maybe I need to get into foreign bonds? Do you think?

I have to think the news next week on the PPI and FOMC front will move some bonds.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

TNX0X Weekly Data

IRX0X Weekly Data


Daily data charts:


TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data


Hourly data charts:


TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data


US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 4.79 4.78 4.78 4.92
6 Month 4.89 4.89 4.89 4.94
2 Year 4.85 4.83 4.80 4.86
3 Year 4.77 4.75 4.73 4.82
5 Year 4.75 4.73 4.70 4.79
10 Year 4.79 4.79 4.77 4.86
30 Year 4.90 4.91 4.91 4.99
Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 3.52 3.54 3.54 3.59
2yr AAA 3.52 3.52 3.51 3.54
2yr A 3.58 3.57 3.61 3.59
5yr AAA 3.58 3.58 3.60 3.66
5yr AA 3.60 3.60 3.62 3.67
5yr A 3.60 3.60 3.64 3.68
10yr AAA 3.74 3.73 3.76 3.88
10yr AA 3.72 3.71 3.74 3.85
10yr A 3.92 3.93 3.97 4.04
20yr AAA 4.12 4.12 4.15 4.26
20yr AA 4.12 4.12 4.14 4.25
20yr A 4.19 4.20 4.23 4.39
Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 5.25 5.24 5.22 5.30
2yr A 5.35 5.33 5.30 5.38
5yr AAA 5.30 5.27 5.26 5.30
5yr AA 5.34 5.32 5.30 5.40
5yr A 5.42 5.42 5.39 5.49
10yr AAA 5.62 5.61 5.60 5.78
10yr AA 5.59 5.59 5.56 5.68
10yr A 5.67 5.68 5.67 5.79
20yr AAA 5.90 5.91 5.89 6.01
20yr AA 6.11 6.10 6.09 6.20
20yr A 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.22


Interest rates and bond yields.


Bond Yields Curve


T-Bill yields hardly moved this week. Let's wait until Wednesday afternoon next week before commenting further.


US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts


SHY Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For SHY

IEF Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For IEF

TLT Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TLT

AGG Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For AGG

LQD Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For LQD

TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TIP

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts


SHY Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For SHY

IEF Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For IEF

TLT Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TLT

AGG Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For AGG

LQD Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For LQD

TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TIP


US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts


SHY Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts


SHY Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For SHY

IEF Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For IEF

TLT Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TLT

AGG Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For AGG

LQD Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For LQD

TIP Hourly data series chart:
US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TIP

Everything here was virtually flat this week. And the $USD was flat as well. Wait til Wednesday.


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CFC 34.86 -0.03 -0.09% 4.31% 3.14% 0.46% -0.29% -6.79% -2.22% -0.51%
FNM 53.77 0.87 1.64% 2.79% 2.13% 9.29% 10.32% 11.53% 0.79% 12.47%
FRE 64.37 1.17 1.85% 1.45% 1.21% 5.82% -1.42% 11.44% 0.19% 9.36%
TLT 87.46 -0.07 -0.08% 0.15% -0.70% 1.09% -4.71% 3.50% -0.97% -5.66%
AGG 99.25 -0.03 -0.03% 0.08% -0.30% 0.31% -1.38% 1.41% -0.15% -2.64%
SHY 80.02 0.04 0.05% 0.01% -0.29% 0.09% -0.37% 0.55% 0.06% -1.03%
IEF 82.03 -0.05 -0.06% -0.04% -0.52% 0.37% -2.23% 2.09% 0.04% -3.63%
TIP 100.15 -0.32 -0.32% -0.15% -1.44% -0.76% -2.80% 0.98% -1.28% -4.77%


Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FRE



Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FRE


Commodities:

The $CRB made another significant move down this week, losing -1.55 pct W/W, which wasn't near as bad the previous week (-3.22 pct).

When was it that I remarked that commodities looked like the game might be over, and then when the 50-day and 200-day (40-week) Moving Averages could not hold their technical support a week ago I wrote: "Over and out".

This week the oil market (down -4.25 pct) was the biggest contributor for the $CRB dropping off to 320.39. Well, metals didn't help either.

The 200-day MA for $CRB is now at 337.58, while the price is down to 320.39. Not good if you are long commodities. The question now is, are they over-sold and ready to rally, and if so, can they rally up through the 200-day MA, which is now a resistance level.

A rising 200-day MA is a Bullish trend, and when the price of your instruments are trading above that, you are a happy camper. Then when your prices fall below the 200-day MA, you ought to switch to being a worried camper. Finally, when the 200-day MA turns down, and your prices are below that, you are a stupid camper who needs to come in from the storm.


Weekly CRB Commodities Index:


CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart

Daily CRB Commodities Index:


CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart


This week $WTIC (near oil futures) traded down as low as 62.80. In 26 trading sessions in the past month, the price of $WTIC Crude Oil has dropped from a high of 77.70 to a close this week at 64.02, down -3.4 pct W/W.

Big Money has definitely left Big Oil.

Question of the day...Has T. Boone gone with the flow, or just gone on vacation?

Again I ask about the hedge funds long oil and inadequately hedged, will there be failures?


Weekly Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Weekly Chart

Daily Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Gold:


Two weeks ago, I saw too many hot-to-trot precious metal bugs, so, despite the strength in the mid-caps and juniors that week, I wrote: "$GOLD didn't do much of anything this week, trading moderately higher by +0.28 pct to 625.09. There are three keys: one is the technical resistance of the 50-Day moving average, which is at 627.30, and another is the goldminers' story. The third is $SILVER. This week, the goldminers (arguably) and silver (for sure) told a positive story for traders who are long precious metals."

Yes, "arguably" was a key word because I went on to say that the major gold miners were going nowhere.

Last week I added: "And that 50-day MA concept is now showing stress, and I'm forced to turn to the 200-day MA as my line in the sand.. That means to the weak-kneed, the $GOLD contracts are at 610.48, just north of the 200-day MA at 590.48. You see that area just below 590? You don't want to go there.. Oh, it's ok for the "Gold"man Sachs because He knows all. But for the rest of us mere mortals " those who never accumulated $700 million from employment like the "Gold"man Hank " we don't want to see that 200-day MA violated.. We don't even want to see the 50-day MA violated, but at a 50-d MA of 630.64, we have surely been violated.. Friday was no bowl of cherries at the office nevertheless the hospital. $GOLD dropped -1.01 pct on the day. Sympathy pains maybe?"

How prophetic.

$GOLD hit a low of $570.94. I don't even want to discuss it anymore. I'm now letting Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch and UBS do my fighting. Did you notice?

I figure if those guys can rack up quarterly profits of US$1 billion or (much) more, they can give me a hand. Somebody has to; I feel like I'm drowning.

I am still a Gold Bull, but I feel that Paulson and Bernanke are a couple of picadors, and Cara's the place for varas. That's how my face felt a week ago. All lanced up.

Did you know that, like bulls, I am totally color-blind? But I can still feel those red arrows.

Having said that, those guys are not getting My prairie oysters. They are staying right where they belong, thank you.

The low for $GOLD this week was 570.94. The 200-day Moving Average is now 592.28, and the 50-day MA is at nosebleed levels of 627.11.

But, I want you to know, the gold crash was preceded by the oil crash by 4 days. We did have four glorious days to jump before getting pushed.


Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.


Remember how a week ago I was saying: "Just five trading sessions ago in NYC, $SILVER leaped ahead +4.45 pct on the day to close that Friday at 12.95. This week $SILVER was down -6.32 pct to 12.13; What a difference four days makes. Pretty soon it's going to be as bad as condo prices in South Florida. Ouch! The 200-day MA is 10.90. Safe for now."

$SILVER had a bad year this week, going down -11.01 pct on the week to close at 10.80. And $SILVER hit a low this week of 10.46.

Yes, that's "going down".

Somebody Big has been getting theirs.

But, did you take note of the Merrill Lynch report from a week ago, where they actually goosed the forecast by $2.00 for each of the next several years. It's a supply thing, and nothing to do with trading in the futures pits.

The 200-day MA is 10.97 and the 50d-MA is 11.81.

Those are now resistance levels. The contango is now going to work against the Bulls.

Trust me; traders do use these MA's in their set-ups, and quick to make decisions when violated. MA's can be violated and then bounce right back, however, so watch for the bull-bear struggle.


Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.



$PLAT was down -1.37 pct on Friday and -5.40 pct W/W to 1166.80. A week ago it was 1233.40, and I was saying: "The 200-day MA is, however, nowhere nearby at 1127.29. Safe for now."

No, nothing's safe when you have HB&B managing directors wanting their bonuses next quarter.

So last week I said: "But we don't want too many days like Friday, which dropped -2.17 pct on the day! Otherwise $PLAT will become $SPLAT."

How about the week's low of 1123.40? $SPLAT.

The 200-day MA is now 1132.47, which is UNDER, but the 50-day MA is 1240.21, which is OVER.


Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.



A week ago I wrote: "$PALL dropped a lot this week, going down -4.18 pct to close Friday at 332.50. But Friday alone it was off -6.13 pct on the day. Tough day at the office. Absolutely $APALLING."

This week was more $APALLING than last; it was down -5.50 pct W/W to close at 314.20, including taking a hit of -3.77 pct on Friday.

It's getting that I hate Friday's.


Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.


A week ago I wrote: "Thank goodness in every dark cloud there happens to be a red lining.. $COPPER managed somehow to gain +3.09 pct W/W to 356.80 " over $10 on the contracts. Once, once again, "This is amazing when the "global economy is going to hell in a hand basket" story is so widespread." Yes, that's what I wrote!

This week $COPPER plunged -7.19 pct to 331.15. So no red lining after all.

The 50-day MA is 350.88, which is OVER, and the 200-day MA is at 287.14, which is still well UNDER. So, if the price continues to fall, it appears that support (if any) is still way far below.

I can't wait til copper is priced in glorious Chinese Yuan anyway.


Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
BVN 26.94 0.66 2.51% -5.04% -3.61% -3.06% -8.86% 3.18% 11.51% -10.94%
ABX 29.08 0.62 2.18% -7.30% -13.14% -6.04% 0.90% 3.71% 9.12% 3.60%
NEM 44.15 0.01 0.02% -8.38% -13.85% -12.95% -22.73% -12.59% -11.88% -1.87%
GFI 17.59 0.27 1.56% -10.26% -11.52% -10.07% -8.72% -1.95% -13.01% 38.50%
LIHRY 40.74 1.29 3.27% -10.56% -12.22% -5.72% 17.47% -7.70% 18.40% 64.08%
KGC 11.92 0.04 0.34% -13.25% -14.98% -5.17% 20.53% 20.89% 21.51% 57.05%
MDG 25.49 0.52 2.08% -14.46% -14.29% -6.56% 6.39% -14.00% -0.35% 19.67%
GG 22.94 -0.21 -0.91% -15.23% -17.06% -19.08% -5.21% -15.01% -18.19% 14.24%
AEM 30.58 0.05 0.16% -16.52% -18.99% -12.25% 38.75% 7.60% 23.31% 110.61%
GLG 37.35 -1.28 -3.31% -17.42% -19.02% 4.33% 25.55% 14.47% 31.47% 77.01%


A week earlier, when the U.S.-listed goldminers ETF (GDX), and the Toronto goldminer index ETF (XGD) were down -4.04 pct, and -1.65 pct respectively, I wrote: "That's a hit, but it doesn't wipe out the gains of the prior two weeks; The Fall is the season to buy the gold miners, and this season is shaping up pretty good actually. This week gave us a better buying opportunity."

I feel like that two-faced slithering creature in the Lord of the Rings. And you can pick your choice for operative word in that sentence.

This week GDX plunged -10.22 pct and XGD -11.78 pct, respectively. I am almost too embarrassed to say they were both up strongly on Friday (+0.67 pct and +1.00 pct).


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data


CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data


Yes, I did write here two weeks ago and again last week: "So the miners here need higher gold prices than the current 625 610 level. The price needs to move into the 650-680 level; Ultimately, I continue to see a gold price well above 800 (within two years), which will cause the share prices of producers and prospectors (even the well promoted penny stocks) to go much higher than at present. So I continue to believe that buying the pull-backs and selling when strength takes the RSI for the majors up to the 70's level on the Daily is the right tactic. This is a trading mentality, but with the extreme nature of the precious metal markets at this point, that's the way it must be done."

I was concerned that $GOLD might not stay above 590, and it did not.

I also said, that you cannot go back in (to average down) until the Daily RSI 7 crosses up through the RSI 14, where you buy a bit, and again until the RSI 14 crosses up through the RSI 21, where you buy a bit more.

Short-term traders are selling some as soon as the price drops below the 50-day MA and the rest when it falls below the 200-day MA. Not all, but most short-term traders do this.

Long-term oriented traders simply scream at their RR at houses like CS, UBS and ML, whose research didn't hold water in a waterfall. Last week was Niagara Falls.

There is still a decision to be made: (i) do you place your confidence in a strong $USD and a strong equity market, (ii) do you think that oils and gold are just the first shoe to drop, or (iii) do you think that the equity market will drop here, but precious metals will recover.

I'm in the third camp, but I do think that the equity market might have a month more to go. I'm left wondering if the precious metals and oil can have a run to the upside (say gold above 610) before that.

That's a bit of a stretch at this point, but two weeks ago $GOLD closed at 625.09 and this week hit a low of 570.94. Just think, I could have been on vacation, and flat my positions.

But what goes down quickly also can come back quickly.


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldmines Index - Weekly Chart


Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Hourly data:

GDX Hourly Data Chart

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart

XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart


Forex:

The $USD gained or lost no ground this week. Everybody is waiting for PPI and FOMC results this coming week.

For the record $USD gained +0.02 pct (almost zip) to close at 85.97, up from 85.95.


Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart

The Euro (priced in USD) lost -0.14 pct W/W to close at 126.56.

The British Pound, which was the star two weeks ago, going up +1.00 pct W/W, and a week ago down -2.09 pct, was this week up +0.67 pct.

I guess the War On Terror works for the Brits as well. But why not for the rest of Europe, which is that much closer to the problems?


Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Weekly Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Weekly British Pound Index:

Weekly British Pound - Weekly Chart

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart




Weekly Japanese Yen Index:


Weekly Japanese Yen - Weekly Chart

Daily Japanese Yen Index:


Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart

The Japanese Yen lost -0.75 pct W/W, including -0.24 pct on Friday.

If anybody looks at the Weekly chart for $JPY, they'll quickly see why it's almost impossible for business persons to conduct fair international trade. How does one know whether they are going to make a profit or lose a ton on a large deal with narrow margins. This ain't fair, and there is only HB&B and the central banks to blame.



Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:


This week the Petro-Canadian Dollar didn't behave. Energy prices came crashing; and metals prices too. But, the Cdn Dollar gained +0.21 pct W/W to close Friday at 89.49.

A week ago, the Cdn Dollar lost -1.24 pct, and I wrote: "Next week it'll be tit for tat." That's quite a swing. We got two cups full.

What might have happened if metals and energy prices had actually rallied? We could have filled the whole truck. Just not taken it across the border without a passport and a two-hour wait.

So, I'm getting a new passport. I think I have to be finger-printed.

And I need two photo i.d.'s " a valid passport is insufficient on its own. And more references so they can track you down just in case Big Brother says they have the urgent need.

Hopefully we don't get dragged off to some prison in Poland. Of course, in that case I could learn the language and finally, after over 37 years, get to speak to my wife in her family tongue.

It's a different world for sure.

Maybe we could all get along better if all currencies had to be fully backed by gold?


Weekly Canadian Dollar - Weekly Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:


Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


International Equities:

There were some international equity markets up on the week in parallel with the U.S. of A. India, for one, had a terrific week going up +5.4 pct W/W for the IFN.

I wrote to India this week, but didn't get a reply. I wrote to the Bombay Exchange and the National Exchange to ask why they shared some of the same listings, but the prices seemed quite different at times. You see, when effective arbitrage is missing, that's often a sign of other issues. I'd like to know because I'm naturally curious about such things.

But I did get mail from India asking me to drop IFN as my choice for country ETF, for certain reasons that I cannot recall. I'll definitely look into that some day.

IFN gained +5.4 pct this week, which brought the ETF performance back to zero over four weeks.

China (FXI) had a small gain this week. Meanwhile, Russia (TRF) took another hit. (unfunny pun) The TRF dropped -2.7 pct W/W, which makes it -4.9 pct in 4 weeks.


Table 13: International equities perspective
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
IFN 41.06 -0.09 -0.22% 5.39% 3.43% 0.05% -0.51% -7.73% -17.30% 3.92%
QQQQ 40.11 0.12 0.30% 3.59% 3.19% 3.56% -2.90% 3.78% -3.86% 2.43%
SPY 131.96 -0.27 -0.20% 1.29% 1.01% 1.48% 4.15% 4.63% 0.92% 7.15%
IEV 94.75 -0.37 -0.39% 1.20% -1.25% -0.31% 13.51% 9.08% 7.00% 18.45%
EWU 21.69 -0.04 -0.18% 0.65% -1.72% -0.50% 13.20% 6.17% 6.85% 13.44%
FXI 79.53 0.28 0.35% 0.42% 0.38% -1.35% 26.26% 12.01% 9.89% 28.27%
EWZ 38.25 -0.14 -0.36% -1.42% -2.35% -5.11% 9.82% 8.20% -8.47% 26.24%
EWC 23.52 0.02 0.09% -1.84% -4.97% -3.49% 4.77% 2.62% -0.97% 12.05%
EWJ 13.41 -0.01 -0.07% -2.12% -2.19% -3.94% -3.87% 2.76% -3.66% 15.40%
TRF 67.35 -1.05 -1.54% -2.67% -4.79% -4.85% 24.72% 7.19% -12.53% 37.53%


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), closed at 13.41, down -2.12 pct.

It tumbled a week ago too, and three weeks ago had a big hit. Seems that crashing oil prices don't amount to much in an oil-hungry nation.

Maybe the Japanese don't accept the U.S. Administration pre-election ploy that American's have tickee? Do you think?

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Monthly data:

EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ


EWJ Daily data:

Daily EWJ

EWJ Hourly data:

Hourly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) gained +0.65 pct W/W after taking a big league hit the previous week. Friday was down a bit.

So, the Brits were home for supper I guess when the President gave his flaming noon day talk on Friday or else the Footsie might have rallied, not lost ground that day, and the Pound would not have lost -0.51 pct on Friday, while on the whole week the British Pound gained +0.67 pct against the USD.

I'm starting to hear reports from the Little People of Britain who feel their equity market is also a bit too padded at the moment.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Monthly data:

EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

EWU Hourly data:


Hourly EWU Data


Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

A week ago I wrote: "The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was crushed -4.04 pct in just four days. The Cdn ETF closed at 23.96."

This week, EWC dropped a further -1.84 pct to close at 23.52.

A week ago, it was Suncor (SU) down -7.91 pct; and EnCana (ECA) down -6.09 pct. This week it was Suncor down -5.71 pct; and EnCana down -8.08 pct. Same old. Same old.

Yes, a week ago I wrote here: "The problem those who are long this sector/group have is that lower $WTIC crude oil prices will continue to hammer away at these stocks; You've heard of the term "sweet spot"? This is the exact opposite. It's where the leverage of falling oil prices on corporate profits will work against the shareholders because the cost of extracting and processing heavy oil from tar sands is very high. Yes there is a gazillion barrels of the stuff, but the conditions are harsh and demanding of high oil prices."

There are a lot of Texas oil men (running mega-billion dollar hedge funds) who must be chomping at the bit to buy up Western Canada's oil sands. I figure.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Monthly data:

EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data

EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data


EWC Hourly data:


Hourly EWC Data

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).


U.S. Equities:

By this point, it's Saturday evening and I'm into my second bottle of Shiraz, so I'll cut this short (or else my Promised Land will become a far off dream).

All U.S. equity markets were way up this week and the Bulls are beside themselves in glee. Democrats are even talking of switching.

I'll leave it there except to say that this, in my opinion, is a manufactured rally. It started in mid-July, fully two weeks before the oil price cracked, and three weeks before the metals started breaking down.

I guess the cronies wanted to get in early. Then it took a while for their Hill & Knowlton-scripts to make it around the circuit to where Kudlow finally understood the intention of a nod and a wink.

Am I surprised? Not really. I recall talking to my staff in the 2000 federal election campaign run when I guessed out loud that Bush would win, followed by a flock of Texas oil men and women into the White House, followed by another war in the Middle East, over oil.

Arguably, I may have got the last bit wrong, but many people don't think so, and I didn't have a clue about Al-Queda or 9/11 at the time.

If I correctly understand the rhetoric I heard in Friday's press conference, the President said that no, he never ever said there was a link between Al-Qaeda and Iraq " just that Saddam was a bad guy. He then muttered (only word I can think of) something about not letting his critics alter history;

Both sides seem pretty fair at the revisionist game, it seems to me. In fact, in the U.S. that seems to be a right of victory.

That's ok for the locals I suppose, but the rest of the world is earnestly watching, and don't have any side to vote for or even to care about. All they really want is that this election be fought over issues like the twin deficits. The 2008 presidential election will likely be fought over the issue of if and when to bring the soldiers home, but that's not one for now.


Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Monthly Nasdaq Composite Data

Monthly S&P 500 Data

Monthly Dow 30 Data

Monthly Russell 2000 Data


Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Weekly Nasdaq Composite Data

Weekly S&P 500 Data

Weekly Dow 30 Data

Weekly Russell 2000 Data


Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Daily Nasdaq Composite Data

Daily S&P 500 Data

Daily Dow 30 Data

Daily Russell 2000 Data

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Hourly Nasdaq Composite Data

Hourly S&P 500 Data

Hourly Dow 30 Data

Hourly Russell 2000 Data


For the Dow 30 this week, there were 24 component stocks up and 5 down. One of them, Coke (KO), was flat.

I admit to making light of the strong gains this week for all the reasons I have given. I think I'll just end it there.

I'm afraid I'm bored awakening at 5am to hear a CNBC anchor shout: "Let's go Dow! Let's go Dow! Let's go Dow!" It makes me want to go on vacation for at least a month.

But there is always hope. Next week, there will be forces come into the market that are related to the market " like PPI and FOMC. At least I hope so.


Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
HD 37.22 0.00 0.00% 8.58% 8.54% 7.20% -9.75% -0.40% -11.93% -7.73%
DD 42.25 0.82 1.98% 5.63% 5.70% 4.55% -1.88% 3.23% -1.45% 5.36%
MSFT 26.84 0.49 1.86% 4.72% 4.48% 8.66% 0.00% 21.61% -1.90% 2.17%
HON 39.75 0.72 1.84% 3.84% 2.66% 1.61% 6.11% 2.11% -7.23% 2.98%
JPM 46.95 0.45 0.97% 3.73% 2.83% 3.28% 16.82% 15.64% 13.90% 37.56%
MMM 74.14 0.61 0.83% 3.68% 3.40% 4.13% -6.28% -8.36% 0.19% 1.13%
WMT 48.22 -0.15 -0.31% 3.21% 7.83% 8.04% 4.30% -0.90% 6.40% 8.80%
BA 75.01 0.00 0.00% 3.04% 0.15% -4.56% 6.64% -11.56% -1.37% 15.26%
IBM 82.94 0.47 0.57% 2.83% 2.43% 4.50% 1.07% 5.58% -0.53% 3.66%
GE 34.85 0.07 0.20% 2.47% 2.32% 2.74% -1.47% 2.17% 1.25% 1.37%
DIS 30.31 -0.08 -0.26% 2.47% 2.23% 1.37% 24.22% 3.84% 5.43% 26.29%
AIG 65.72 0.39 0.60% 2.30% 2.98% 3.37% -5.60% 9.48% -4.28% 7.83%
AXP 53.75 0.27 0.50% 2.15% 2.30% 0.45% 2.23% 0.34% -0.50% -6.62%
UTX 64.61 1.61 2.56% 2.01% 3.03% 4.29% 14.29% 6.25% 11.53% 27.49%
PFE 28.04 -0.16 -0.57% 1.63% 1.74% 3.85% 17.91% 19.17% 8.05% 9.11%
T 31.86 -0.39 -1.21% 1.63% 2.35% 4.63% 28.94% 14.89% 16.66% 33.25%
VZ 35.81 -0.17 -0.47% 1.16% 1.79% 4.62% 17.87% 11.25% 4.13% 10.56%
C 49.19 -0.10 -0.20% 0.96% -0.32% 1.28% -0.20% 1.05% 4.64% 9.24%
MCD 37.73 0.40 1.07% 0.61% 5.10% 4.11% 12.56% 13.13% 8.51% 12.80%
INTC 19.53 -0.22 -1.11% 0.41% -0.05% 5.28% -23.62% 7.78% -1.96% -20.45%
JNJ 63.79 0.06 0.09% 0.31% -1.35% -0.69% 3.50% 3.77% 6.67% -0.90%
MO 83.14 0.10 0.12% 0.20% -0.47% 2.96% 10.88% 17.80% 12.55% 15.07%
MRK 41.10 0.07 0.17% 0.10% 1.36% 5.85% 25.50% 19.72% 16.89% 42.91%
HPQ 36.18 -0.07 -0.19% 0.03% -1.04% 2.93% 25.76% 13.49% 6.76% 29.82%
KO 44.60 0.02 0.04% 0.00% -0.47% 0.95% 9.05% 3.62% 4.38% 2.22%
PG 60.90 0.13 0.21% -0.39% -1.62% 0.93% 3.61% 10.97% 1.67% 9.73%
GM 31.66 -1.30 -3.94% -0.91% 8.50% 3.60% 67.51% 23.72% 47.26% -2.73%
AA 28.13 0.27 0.97% -1.92% -1.61% -1.33% -5.92% -7.04% -5.92% 6.63%
CAT 65.43 -0.08 -0.12% -2.81% -1.39% -5.67% 13.20% -7.65% -11.93% 13.32%
XOM 64.65 -0.06 -0.09% -3.23% -4.46% -5.04% 10.57% 9.35% 5.95% 3.51%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)


This week, Value Line reported Friday on Exxon Mobil. But I think they got the sum of the parts arithmetic wrong. I think the company also has a US$23 billion investment in Imperial Oil, among other things.

Have a read.


ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 15: next one is due Dec. 15)


Isn't it amazing how Exxon Mobil's PE and P/CF have dropped so low, compared to the 1990's, while Revenues and Margins have zoomed?

And how have they spent $19 billion on share buy-backs in the past 19 months, with much more to come, with the share price not booming? Do you think that their ultra-low dividend emission policy has anything to do with that?

Or maybe it's because the gnomes are simply trying to keep the market cap under a trillion for fear that Congress will split it up a la Telephone.

And isn't the new Telephone a sight to behold. Another Nexus in Texas.

Ok, I promise not to Mess With Texas any more. Besides, we've all been told not to. And, as I remarked earler, from the look in the eye of a prominent Texan in his "news" conference on Friday, and the sound of his voice, those political Rangers must be really smilin' darlin'.

This WIR is done.


Dow 30 list:
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)


Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)


American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)


American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)


AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)


Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 23: next one is due Sep. 22)


Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)


Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)


Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)


Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)


Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)


ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 15: next one is due Dec. 15)


General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)


General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)


Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)


Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 7: next one is due Oct. 6)


Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)


IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)


Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)


Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)


JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)


McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 8: next one is due Dec. 8)


3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)


Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)


Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24) >


Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)


Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report)


United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)


Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)


Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 11: next one is due Nov. 10)


Wrap up:

A week ago I wrote in the wrap-up: "I didn't work too hard this weekend. Answered a lot of mail. Watched the boats on the lake. Thought about Bahamas. Thought about life."

On Friday after lunch, my wife sent me the news that focussed me away from the market once again.

John Kita -- Passed away this afternoon in hospital-heart. I don't know any other details but will let you know. He was a sweet, gentle man and my Mom's "baby brother". R.I.P.

There has never been a birthday, Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, Wedding or Funeral in over 40 years that I haven't seen John Kita. And without a word of a lie, there wasn't a single day in all of those that I didn't hear John laughing or see him smiling.

We should all be so lucky.

It was just last year-end that his daughter, a chemical engineer from New York and her husband, an independent gold trader on the Forex floor, had come into the family party saying to me: "Bill, you are famous! I had a meeting with my financial advisor and you were the seventh reference. I had to do a double-take. That's my cousin, I said."

In law, actually. One whom I've known since her birth.

Her brothers, a telecom expert and a geologist, I never knew quite as well. Her mother Stella is just like John, always one to be smiling. We'll all miss John.

We The People have to take time to smell the roses and to smile and laugh before it's our time to pass. You know?


BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 16, 2006 10:36:36 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review

Discourse

Anyone thinking the commodity boom is over might want to watch Marc Faber here;

http://www.usfunds.com/landingpages/fallwebcast/

You may not agree, but he offers a convincing argument, were just getting started.

Thanks for all your efforts Bill :)

Posted by: Hooper [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 12:17 PM [link]

I understand the potential for precious metals o rise because of their benefits during inflation/recession periods. With the issues in the middle east, I see oil always having an upward pricing trend over the long haul.

However I question the 'bull potential' for the base metals/materials, due to the slowdown with the US housing market. I don't think world demand will be able to offset the US decline.

OCtober should be an interesting month. WIll the 'rangers' be able to continue this bull rally, and how long will they be able to keep the DOW this high. It is 160 points from the all-time high. Talk about a resistence point, good thing Paulson has secret M3 at his fingertips.

Posted by: rick s [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 12:52 PM [link]

I have never heard of rangers. I have heard of George Soros and that handful of other billionaire socialists he hangs with.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 2:17 PM [link]

Fred,

Ask George W. the code name for the GOP campaign team in each state.

And I didn't know Soros actually hung with anybody. :-)

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 2:29 PM [link]

Hooper, thank you for this link. I listened with interest. I saw another presentation some time ago (I think by US Global Investors) that showed oil consumption of pre-industrialized v. industrialized nations. With the naciency of both China's and India's industrial boom, I think that we will witness a sonic boom in consumption demand--read: once we hear the sound, it's already passed--and what will have passed us by is the realization that we do not have the infrastructure to handle it. Like every economic issue I've tried to understand of late, there are two camps with polarizing ideas....reality is somewhere in the middle. I also heard a very soft-pedaled notion of the US's fall from political and economic graces. And there are some interest pairings/threesomes...a global Peyton Place. When the music stops, I wonder if we'll be looking at our bedmate(s) (should we be so lucky to still have one/some) and saying..."what was I thinking?"

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 2:33 PM [link]

Hooper: thanks for that great link (Faber). Worth every minute. If you can't listen to the 30 minutes, just listen to slide 41, at around 37 min. into the presentation.

Posted by: SiO2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 2:34 PM [link]

Bill - This is my first post and I want to say thank you for your insightful commentary.

The answer to how and why gas prices have fallen so far, so fast, is in the gas tanks of consumers car(s). Think of the more than 100,000,000 cars in the US as a huge storage system for refined product. Then assume, under normal conditions, we all drive around with our tanks about 1/2 full. Thats about 1 billion gallons of gas. Then think back to when gas was climbing from the $2.50's (AVERAGE) to the $3.30's last month. As gas was slowly going up in price we consumers had a tendency to slowly increase our average tank level because we thought "gotta top it off today cause it will be higher next week". This tended to be self fullfilling. Our tanks were then holding about 1.5 billion gallons.

The refineries kept producing gas to meet the demad that had developed as a result of this anomally. Sometime early last month refineries found they were holding too much gas since demand had fallen (you cannot overfill a tank) and they sold excess gas at substantial discounts. As soon as gas started going down in price we consumers found that we really did not need to top off as often - prices were now going down, not up.

Over the last month or two we have probably reduced the averages to previous fill levels, thereby reducing the demand for refined product by 1/2 billion gallons in just the last month.

Here in Omaha the swing has been from a high of $3.39 last month to this mornings price of $2.13.

It will probably go back up as fast as it went down. Political interests will be powerless to stop the natural laws of supply/demand.

Posted by: wabrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 2:43 PM [link]

bill
as a long term commodity trader i'vealso been wondering about the unusual behavior of unleaded gas..
first time i can ever recall prices declining before the labor day holiday in the usa.
in the past the price held up no matter what the economy..
i believe you are correct in smelling something emanating fron Texas

Posted by: mbernold [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 3:26 PM [link]

Hooper--thanks for the link--great info.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 9:16 PM [link]

The hidden hand behind the commodities' tanking are very powerful. No way it is from regular financial orgs. High commodity prices will hurt the US economy in many ways.
1) higher deficits;
2) More interest hikes;
3) US dollar value;
Paulson is the guy who knows the short term skill to dampen this market. But it won't last long.

Posted by: TonyTan [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 10:45 PM [link]

I think the rangers let the market come back for a week or two so they can juice it again going into the election. Its important not to peak too soon.

Posted by: BigHube [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 17, 2006 12:34 AM [link]

Bill, sorry to hear of your relative's passing. Few things more valuable than a person who brings a smile into our lives from time to time.
Speaking of which, you are truly in rare form in this WIR. A Saturday Night Education more rollicking than "Saturday Night Live." Nobody better in combining comedy with financial enlightenment (w/o chewing off bulls' heads) and delivering a trenchant message. Your courageous reassertion of your bearish equity (and bullish PM) posture is bracing for those of us in the same camp but perhaps with less fortitude, the leadership that rallies bloodied regiments to hold the fort.

Posted by: jcf [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 17, 2006 12:46 AM [link]

"And the US$ gold price correlated to the US$/Euro exchange rate was 0.9513 from Sept-2001 through May-2005, and +0.828 from Nov-2005 through today, which is pretty high, and between gold and oil prices, that correlation from Sept 11, 2001, trough today is .808, which is also very high."

Anyone else besides Tradesman bother to look at my gold charts and figure out what I might have been looking at? It certainly wasn't some guru's musings on Kitco.com.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 17, 2006 5:05 AM [link]

ON THE MEDIA: the more I read of your observations of Kudlow & Cramer, the more I choose not to waste any time observing their theatrics. When you contrast ROB TV (where facts & opinion are shared using a normal, intelligent, conversational tone) and CNBC, you wonder why US audiences demand so much spin, screaming and sound effects. So much of US TV programming is nothing more than salad dressing for the brain: lots of flavour with little nutritional content. The saddest part of the process, is paying exhorbitant fees to the cable companies to access it.

Posted by: Student [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 17, 2006 9:34 AM [link]

Am I buying? You betcha, gold is on sale along with it's sister, silver. I've been calling the coin shops and looking around for bargins, the best ones have been found on Ebay, the weak hands are selling. Someone was selling Maple's there for $570 (13 to be exact), all gone now. I've bought half of what I budgeted for purchases, waiting to see what happens and if I can buy more at lower prices. This is my first substantial physical purchases since $400 Gold and $5 silver.

IIRC, Embry stated a year ago on RobTV, that with rising mining cost, gold can only go so low before some mines are closed and other projects halted. IMO, there's a floor for this drop and I don't think there's too much more downside until supply problems will start to arise and buying escalates. I'll twist my arm and state: $540.

Posted by: JB [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 17, 2006 11:20 AM [link]

MarkM,

"Anyone else besides Tradesman bother to look at my gold charts and figure out what I might have been looking at? It certainly wasn't some guru's musings on Kitco.com."

I looked but obviously didn't figure it out. I and, I think, many think others here, would appreciate your thoughts on what exactly you were looking at.
Best,
Rward

Posted by: rward [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 17, 2006 3:37 PM [link]

thanks Bill,

you brought smiles on my face several times in this WIR :)

Soros hung around? :)

So, great as it is, the equity market is going up and i can tell you, i like it :). We had a bad summer, so the rest of the year should belong to us bulls! There is some fat green grass outside :)

Posted by: Jansing [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 18, 2006 6:09 AM [link]

Bill-

I am expecting the $USD to prove stubborn here. While a lot of people have been calling for the breakdown below $USD 80 I don't see them letting that happen any time soon.

With the $TRAN and $CRB demonstrating clear divergence one has to wonder why/how the indices are dashing toward their yearly highs. It turns out that PREFERRED STOCKS are providing the bulk of the advances in the adv/dec line of the NYSE. Gee, aren't those a bit like BONDS?

I'm looking for basing action out of gold followed by a short retrace, probably to 50 or 61.8% retrace. If another lower low is put in, the shorts will pounce.

Bellcow RGLD had nice action on Friday.

I am bullish on gold long term. The debt overhang must come crashing down. It is only this short term and intermediate term period that I think will have us wondering whether it is all worth it.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 18, 2006 6:12 AM [link]