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September 9, 2006
Week #36 (2006-09-09) in Review (FINAL)
This is a week we can all agree that Mulally 'got his'. The question is, when do we 'get ours'.
Boeing had paid Alan Mulally a base salary of $825,000 plus $736,000 bonus. Moving over to captain a sinking ship does have its rewards though as Ford Motor Co has agreed to pay him $2 million base annual salary plus 4 million stock options and 600,000 restricted stock units plus $7.5 million signing bonus plus $11 million to replace the Boeing future compensation package he walked away from. I wonder how many points his agent got.
The one thing that Mulally didn't get was something acceptable to replace his Lexus. Maybe Ford would like to give him a Taurus to show him how bad things really are.
Now why would an individual investor care about Ford or General Motors now that those two leading American corporations have become dependencies of (i) the NYC banks (who worry about a Ford-GM credit failure bigger than all of Central and South America combined, in the unlikely event the latter should ever happen at once), and (ii) Washington (where Job One is to fool the American people into believing that working two jobs at McDonalds is better than one at a factory like Ford or GM?
Speaking of McDonalds, Value Line reported on the company this week, exposing the truth about what's wrong with the U.S. economy.
Instead of creating wealth, entrepreneurs and capitalists like Alan Mulally and the good folks at McDonalds have decided to get theirs. Sell assets for royalties, and use the cash flow to increase dividends and buy-back shares because that, ladies and gentlemen, is going to increase the stock price (for now) and incidentally their personal bonuses (for as long as they hopefully have the gig).
From your pocket to theirs. Why?
If you are interested in holding shares of an auto manufacturer, why not just look to (Cara 100) Toyota Motor, which doesn't need the likes of people like Alan Mulally or Bob Rubin and his colleagues at Goldman Sachs? Toyota simply manufactures cars (like the Lexus) that intelligent people want, and they make good money doing it, and have credible financial statements to boot.
So Washington doesn't want you to bet on sports (they had another internet gaming executive arrested this week); they'd rather you gamble on Ford and GM shares in an equity market they tell you is transparent and fair, and not controlled by Washington and Humungous Bank & Broker. Not!
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 8: next one is due Dec. 8)
Toyota Motor Corp [GICS 25, Cara 100]
(TM: Yahoo Finance file)
(TM: StockChart chart)
(TM: Investertech chart)
(TM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(TM: ADVFN Financial Data)
One of the readers sent a report by the "Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group" of Humungous Bank & Broker. This is the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) at work, which you may find of interest.
In it, you'll get to read about the why and how our markets are no longer free, but carefully controlled by Henry Paulson et al. You'll read about subjects like 'Private Counterparty Surveillance' and ‘Moral Hazard' that I bet 99 pct of you have never heard of.
Oh yes, you'll read (i) about the massive credit bubble, not of our doing, (ii) reasons why hedge funds are not directly regulated, although common sense dictates they ought to be (iii) unconscionable conflicts existing at Humungous Bank & Broker that are not permitted in any other aspect of our society, but which HB&B says is not a problem, and (iv) the procedures by which these financial service companies organize and control us.
It may be their report, but it is incumbent upon the most serious and capable among us to analyze it and tell the others what they ought to know is going on in the boardrooms of the Money Center Banks and Washington. We all have a stake in this.
On a different plane, "John" sent this recommended reading list.
Contrary Investor-Interesting review of break in transports and implications.John Mauldin- Thoughtful review of recent Fed comments and one particular speech. If they walk the talk may put commodity bulls on the ropes.
BCA- wondering if supply is finally set to ramp in commodity space.
Note that the comments associated with these notes are from "John" (who is an industry professional) who is concerned that I may be swimming upstream against too many forces that oppose the commodity Bull. In any case, since he is not prepared to join the equity Bull market proponents at the moment, he is advising a much heavier cash weighting for the next couple months.
I cannot disagree. I think this market is being propped up during the U.S. political campaign season, and is not pricing in risk that is close to being appropriate to current conditions.
Last week I wrote: "So at what point are we now in the market cycle? All things considered, I think we are still early in the Bear, which started May 10, and which that week I called a Bear. If, in future weeks, I come to believe I am wrong, I'll certainly tell you; Yes, I am impressed with the Summer rally, but the Summer is almost over now. Can this market rally through the Fall to new highs in Nasdaq and the Dow 30? I don't think so."
The market did not rally this week, and I'll tell you why, and what I think was the cause of the summer rally.
Ask yourself how big are the Global and U.S. equity markets, and how big is just one part of it, the commodities sensitive component. Therein sits the answer to what is happening today in the market.
As you know, in this Report I delve into ETF's by market structure. I split the market into three segments as follows:
First segment: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials -- most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spendingSecond segment: Consumer Discretionary, Staples and Healthcare -- most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
Third segment: Financial, Tech, Telecom and Utilities -- most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
When interest rates are rising, the first segment stocks are typically in growth mode. That's because the economy is growing on a value-added basis, due to previous central bank liquidity injections. But at some point in the business cycle the economic growth becomes excessive, leading to speculation and inflation. To counteract this phenomenon, money from central bankers and commercial bankers is withdrawn and/or becomes harder to get, and rates rise.
When interest rates are falling, and the USD strengthening, the first segment is usually retracting. Capital is being pulled from the first segment and invested in the third segment, which are the Financials, Techs, Telecom and Utilities.
These actions can be caused by direct central bank intervention and/or from regular market action that is anticipating certain central bank activity.
So to see what's happened to global equity markets in the past quarter, let's look at the composition of the S&P 1200 largest companies, and also the S&P 500 large U.S. companies that is a component of the S&P 1200, and the stock performance of the component groups.
You'll see that a of Friday's close, the S&P 1200 had an aggregate market cap of $23.71 trillion, including a U.S. S&P 500 component of $11.75 trillion, which is almost exactly 50 pct the global total of what are the biggest capitalized companies in the world.
Global S&P 1200 performance table:strong>

U.S. S&P 500 performance table:

In the past quarter, the share performance of the S&P 1200 was +2.11 pct, which when added to dividends gave a Total Return (TR) of 2.52 pct. But the U.S. S&P 500 had a share performance of +2.26 pct and a TR of +2.65 pct, so the non-U.S. S&P 700 was about +2.0 and 2.4 pct respectively.
In the big picture this quarter, capital is coming out of Segment 1 energy and industrials, and going into Segment 3 utilities, telecom and financials and into Segment 2 consumer staples and healthcare.
This capital move has happened, I think, because: (i) equity traders have become defensive because the 2002-2006 stock cycle is due for a correction, (ii) central banks and commercial banks have begun to campaign against inflation and speculation, (iii) the major economies of North America and Europe, which have grown at a faster pace than their long-term average largely because of housing market inflation and speculation, are now naturally retracting as interest rates and costs of holding real estate investments rise and profits are being taken, (iv) forex trading has become so extreme that international trading in goods and services has been unduly affected " in the U.S. and abroad.
I see nothing unusual in this process. But I continue to opine that risks in the Segment 3 stocks (43.8 pct of total capitalization in the U.S. and 46.2 pct globally), particularly in the biggest components (financials and to a lesser extent in the techs), is not fully understood or appreciated by traders.
Seemingly safely hedged positions have to be unwound at certain times, which sends a flood of hot money running in the opposite direction. Back and forth, as the derivative markets escalate. At some point there will be increasing dissatisfaction that turns to disillusionment and finally disengagement by the independent trader as government and central banks step up their market interventionist tactics, trying hard to save the financial system from a systemic collapse.
The clouds are growing darker, I am afraid, and the problems are not being caused by the independent trader but by a triumvirate of government-gnomes-and-bankers. Independent traders have turned to mathematical trading decision models as a defense, and these are the programmed trading decisions that are swinging sectors like energy and technology from first to last and back again, from week to week.
I think humans are getting tired of it all, and want the system fixed. It won't be of course as long as the people running the major economic powers and money center banks of the world can 'get theirs'.
The rest of us will stand in line.
Global Market Summary
International Equities: This was a four day week in North America, although business as usual elsewhere. But, no matter, the equity markets were down everywhere. Not by much in markets like China, but a lot elsewhere, such as -4.0 pct in Canada, -3.0 pct in UK, and -2.2 pct in Russia.
U.S. Equities : The major market indexes went from a prior "all-round terrific week on the upside" to a broadly-based loser. Nasdaq Composite was down -1.3 pct, the Russell 2000 small cap was down -1.8 pct, while the Dow and S&P 500 were down -0.6 pct and -0.9 pct respectively.
Dow 30 : There were 13 Dow stocks up and 17 down, but the winner (+9.5 pct) GM is a fringe player compared to the biggest losers, Boeing (-2.8 pct), JNJ (-1.7 pct), Citigroup (-1.3 pct), Exxon Mobil (-1.3 pct) and Proctor & Gamble (-1.2 pct). Wal-Mart and McDonalds were both strong, as were the consumer discretionary and staple sectors.
U.S. Sector ETFs: There were 2 ETF's up (XLY +0.9 pct and XLP +0.5 pct) and 8 down, with last week's big loser (-3.0 pct) XLE also being this week's big loser (-3.1 pct). In 21 trading sessions in the past month, the price of $WTIC Crude Oil has dropped from a high of 77.70 to a close this week at 66.25. Big Money has left Big Oil.
First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (-3.1 pct); Still last as Crude Oil prices fell again
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #4 (-0.5 pct); Improved some on Friday
20: Industrials (XLI): #5 (-0.2 pct); CAT and UTX were up
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #1 (+1.1 pct); From #2 to #1
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #2 (+0.1 pct); Barely a winner
35: Healthcare (IYH): #7 (-0.5 pct); MRK was up +1.3 pct
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #3 (-0.0 pct); Flat over three weeks
45: Tech (SMH chips): #9 (-2.3 pct); Back & forth, #9 to #1 to #8 to #1 to #9
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #4 (-0.0 pct); Flat
55: Utilities (XLU): #8 (-1.2 pct); Weak
Bonds: A strange week as Big Money rushed into T-Bills and short-term bonds, but the long-term TLT took a hit. Inflation is still about.
Commodities: Inflation might be apparent in the data, but traders are following the interventionist tactics of central bankers and taking profits in the commodities, particularly oil.
Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were down -4.3 pct W/W to 66.25, after being down -3.2 pct the previous week. Traders seem to be thinking that, from mid-July, in the absence of hurricanes or war on the Israeli-Lebanon front, and a rapidly declining North American economy, that it's time to take profits in oil. Traders go with the flow " not the oil production but the momentum of share prices in the oil sector. In that regard, foreign oil stocks (Canada, China and Europe) were off bigger than the U.S. oils this quarter.
Gold: $GOLD dropped -2.3 pct W/W to 610.48, perhaps seeking a bottom in the 590-600 range. This was a week where $USD was king and the precious metals not so precious. But the Little Paupers will succeed in the end because the $USD is only paper.
Goldminers: The goldminers were down about -4 pct in the U.S. and just under half that in Canada. A week ago I pointed out that the majors were not winners;
Forex: $USD had a powerful week from the pre-open following Labor Day. Four days does not make a trend, particularly when the only apparent reason was a sell-off in oil to 66. Should oil sell down to 55, however, that would be a different story as the U.S. economy could crank back up on its own, without support from the Treasury and the Fed.
Sector ETF:
Eight of ten sector ETF's were down, but this was a short week, and five of the eight losers were down -0.50 pct or less. So I wouldn't read too much into it. The market could have gone the other way.
The consumer discretionary and staple stocks were the only winners, and barely so for the staples despite Wal-Mart's and McDonald's gains of +4.5 pct.
For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.
Also, Yahoo Finance has an ETF info service in beta testing right now that looks interesting. At Yahoo Finance, key in the ETF ticker symbol of your choice and explore on the left nav bar all the stuff that's available today or coming, including the top ten holdings.
This is still being developed and has many mistakes. EWC (Canada) shows two stocks in the top ten that are not even Canadian. CNR is a large cap Canadian-based railroad, but a ticker symbol for something else.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
This week, XLE was down -3.09 pct. A week ago it was down -2.95 pct. The price of $WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) closed Friday at 66.25 and appears to be over-sold short-term.
XLE from stayed in #10 spot performance wise this week, which will likely improve next week. Longer-term, the XLE component share prices are likely to be supported by the heavy cash flow generated at 60+ oil, and by the share buy-backs and high dividend yields.
Previously I wrote: "The thing to watch out for is the negative divergence of RSI to the rising price trend for the Monthly price series. At some point, the loss of momentum will catch up to the XLE, which has enjoyed a terrific run to the upside this past year." So, now the market is starting to adjust. After a corrective buying wave of a few days or couple weeks, there will likely be more selling.
The point is that XLE still has risk due to market reaction to falling crude oil prices, but there are fundamental reasons for traders to stay here, just as they go to defensive ports in a storm like the consumer staples and healthcare, which are for the stable cash flow.
Now if the oil price were to fall to 55 or 45 or to the Steve Forbes forecast of 35, the balance would shift. Earnings and cash flow would not be sufficient at very low oil prices to sustain investor interest. But, failing a severe global recession or depression (yikes!), there is not a high probability of that scenario playing out.
What is happening here is precisely what I opined several weeks ago: as oil prices fall, the high cost Canadian oil sands projects come under immediate scrutiny. The operating leverage works against the shares of companies like Imperial Oil, Suncor, etc. And that is happening this week. IMO fell -9.3 pct and SU -7.9 pct.
Day traders are waiting to hit the Buy button after they see the corrective rally in oil prices start to take hold. And when that happens, the Cdn Dollar will rally, and the Toronto Exchange equity index will also rally. So, if you want to sell, that's when you sell.
Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Big Oil (Exxon Mobil and Chevron Texaco) were down -1.3 pct and -0.3 pct respectively as Big Money seemed more intent on coming out of the Canadian oils and Brazil and Europe.
All the stocks I follow in this sector were down this week and many were thoroughly sliced and diced on Friday. Just like my face.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
A week ago I wrote that "This week, Canadian oil and gas stocks fared poorly " Suncor and EnCana included. With the relatively high cost to produce in the oil sands, these stocks are particularly volatile. As the price of crude falls into the mid-60's or lower, these stocks will have major losses."
Enough said. These stocks will also have very good days ahead, although I wonder if the small independent trader wants to be day trading them.
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) lost -0.47 pct W/W to close at 31.75.
A week ago I wrote something I still feel strongly about: "But these are economic cyclicals that may have downside ahead. If Industrial Production is going to flourish and crude prices decline, these are solid companies and good looking stocks. I'm just not sure I'd want to chase them here."
Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The week was a mixed bag. Phelps Dodge (PD) was strong because copper prices stayed high, and because the company is earning a small fortune in break fees on the Inco (N) deal that Brazilian RIO is acquiring.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was down moderately -0.19 pct this week to 32.19.
The UPS executive interviewed by CNBC helped pump the stock.
Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Brazil's Embraer (ERJ) was up +8.24 pct W/W to $41.78. That's a 4-week move of +22.0 pct, which is more than outstanding. It's amazing.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.12 pct W/W to 33.29, which is only a dime, but enough to put XLY into top spot.
The minute that traders decide that their brothers and sisters have too few coins in their jeans, this sector will suffer. Heads or tails came up heads this week again.
But if its heads for XLY and tails for XLE; Later it'll be enough coin to fill up the SUV but not to pay the house mortgage, and as some wag said on CNBC, "People can sleep in their car, but they need that car to drive to a pay check".
Somebody a while back said in the comment section that people will walk away from their house when they realize they can't simply chop off an extra bedroom or two to cut the mortgage rate down to size.
Yes, I see credit problems on the horizon, and that will hurt XLY. Of course the banks could simply forget that the borrower has negative equity in the house, and decide to go into the long-term real estate investment market by putting the "home-owner" deeper in debt.
Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The Big Spenders had another good week, although nowhere near last week's. I mean EBAY was up just +2.3 pct this week, which puts it up +14.8 pct in 4-weeks.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
This week the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained +0.08 pct to close at 25.54, which is a loss of just 12 cents. Wal-Mart (+4.5 pct after being up +3.6 pct a week earlier) and Walgreen (+2.9 pct after +4.3 pct a week ago) kept their cash registers in working order.
Traders are trying to hide in these defensive places. At least until the end of the quarter " Sept 29.
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
The booze companies (Bud -4.0 pct and DEO -1.6 pct) were a little tipsy.
Somebody's cheating; I know I had my share.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
The healthcare ETF (IYH) was down -0.49 pct W/W to close at 64.58, but Friday was an exceptionally good day as Bristol-Myers came back strong.
I'm wondering if the Mad One on CNBC has lost his charm. Since he bad-mouthed BMY a few weeks ago, the stock has a 4-week performance of +11.3 pct, which is outstanding.
Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) has stayed in the Cara 100 because I still can't make up my mind.
I thought "I must have a thick skin" but this week the surgeon started removing it. That's quite a feeling as the scissors rip your face apart and a nauseating experience as the laser gun burns away your flesh. Pretty hard to ignore when one of the excisions was right at the nostril and the other a couple inches away. Unfortunately, disease is something that focuses the mind and leads one to rapid decisions.
Even more unfortunately, staying protected from the sun is something I needed to do " we all need to do " from a very young age.
For the record, BMY was up +6.6 pct this week due to a friendly judge. I wish that judge was more in tune with generic drugs, but that's another story.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
The Financials ETF (XLF) lost 6 cents (-0.03 pct W/W to close at 33.46.
Lehman Bros (LEH) (+3.6 pct), Goldman Sachs (GS) (+0.8 pct) ad Morgan Stanley (MS) (+1.4 pct) made it back and then some, but have you ever noticed that on the days that the Fed seems to be extra-active that's when the Fed owners do very well.
In any case, XLF jumped to 3rd place in this week's performance rankings.
Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
