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September 8, 2006
Watching the British home-builders, Fri., Sept. 8, 2006, 7:15 AM
Yesterday, when all the talk was about deflation and crisis in the U.S. housing market and home-builder industry, my time was spent looking across the pond to Great Britain and the home-builders listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Most of the stocks in the consumer discretionary home-builders group have enjoyed a superlative run in recent weeks, as has the UK market index called the Footsie (FTSE 100).
The Footsie is up about 16 points this morning to 5874. The 5800 is a crucial support level. Should that level fail, the primary Bull market support level is at 5500.
So, I watch this important index and the important real estate value creators on the list to see if there will be a break-down. As I see it, it's very difficult for the NYSE and the Tokyo Exchange to continue in their Bear without the Footsie hurting as well.
We are all concerned about economic uncertainty. To take in the big picture, I'd go to all the following links and click on the 1-year charts for some insights.
PSN
BDEV
TWOD
WMPY
WLB
BWY
BKG
MCTY
BVS
RDW
CRST
BHY
RAV
TEF
BBC
ART
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 8, 2006 07:15:44 AM | Category: 25 Cons Discretionary , Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
Bill -
This is my last post (very off topic) Please publish it.
I sincerely apologize to you and the members of this Blog for the unfortunate occurrences yesterday. It was never my intention to discredit Bill's financial acumen. We all know there is no debating that issue. His daily commentaries are all the proof required to certify his credentials. The comment on the Bahama retreat was tongue in cheek. As I have written to Bill, my intention was to remind Bill of the risk involved in planning an unfunded commitment to a far away location like the Bahamas and then have guests back out at the last minute leaving the sponsor holding the financial bag, so to speak. I've been there, seen that. It was not ever meant to question his abilities. This is HIS Blog, And I hope my parents taught me better manners and hopefully better sense than that! The comment, in hindsight, look sloppy. Am I rich (abundantly supplied with resources, means, or funds)? Heck no! Am I wealthy (rich in character, quality, or amount; abundant or ample)? I absolutely hope so! (Again sloppy phrasing and semantics)I've navigated this our Earth since July of 1924 and sincerely believe I've gain a wealth of experience, through traveling, education, and just generally living a normal life while conversing with normal folks and making money is also an experience as well.And I remember MarkM admonition very well that: "if someone has an idea to get rich, they are better off keeping it to themselves(paraphasing). Is it arrogance that make my writings appear frank? Maybe, and just maybe, by hearing the same arguments repeated generation after generation and knowing there is no simple solution (let's all return to the Gold Standard) that will satisfy everyone. We are a multi-cultural, multi-racial society and I'm a bit fascinated to have reached the final phase of my life and witness the social disentegration (IMHO) of the American society. The lack of respect for each other, the poisonous political environment we (the Americans) have created. The "It's my way, or the highway attitude" we are passing on to our children. We need try and get along with each other folks, even in disagreement. It the only way were are going to survive as a society. Folks thanks for your daily company. No sentimentalities...I can still read the Blog. I just choose not to comment further. Wait...one setimentality...I alway dreamed of being a Frank Sinatra style singer...here goes... "I'll be seeing you, in all those familar places....
Happy trading all...I'll be lurking by.
Bill - Thanks for the privilege!
Oratier
P.S. - Leisa, Number2son, MarkM, Bill, Others...I sincerely appreciate your kind remarks. Even unseen we can instantly recognize kindness when we read it.
TerryC, Tech-Invester, Others,...Isn't Freedom of Speech the greatest social experiment since the Magna Carta!
As for "still be juvenile"...I hope so and that's a great compliment to a man who still cherish his ability to function independently!
Posted by: oratier
at
September 8, 2006 8:01 AM [link]
Well, that is unfortunate. But understandable. You take good care oratier.
Mark
Posted by: MarkM
at
September 8, 2006 8:44 AM [link]
Oratier, et al., we all have "bad hair days" and perhaps yesterday was one of them. I know I've posted comments to boards I'd later wished (dearly!) I could retract. In the end though, what ends up being judged is the accumulated postings of a person, and not just one or two entries. I like oratier's posts and would miss them if he removed himself permanently. So I hope he'll cut himself some slack and reaize a bad day does not a bad poster make and come back when he feels sufficiently chastised.
Posted by: omphalos
at
September 8, 2006 4:32 PM [link]
Could be interesting timing for UK housing market, Tony Blair became Prime Minister of UK in 1997, the nadir of the last housing cycle and he's standing down in the next few months (or weeks)as the present cycle has just made new highs.
Posted by: karzy
at
September 8, 2006 4:33 PM [link]
Oratier
You were born one year after my late father, from the same generation, same thinking. Right or wrong, my father would never allow some one elses comments to stop him from speaking his mind. Im not taking sides, one thing that i am good at is letting things roll off of my shoulders, try it, you might like it.
Posted by: tgifbipo
at
September 8, 2006 8:14 PM [link]

Hi Bill,
Greetings from across the pond. I'm a young city worker (Lehmans in fact!) and I hope the weakness/crisis does breakout here. Interest rates rose for the first time in over a year last month. Its yet to be seen if that will have any significant effect.
But I do think its just a matter of time. The boom in property over here has been for exactly the same reasons as the US. Excess liquidity.
If they start cutting rates again, thats a whole different story! I'm just not sure the our countries can take any more debt though!
Posted by: SwordVish
at
September 8, 2006 7:33 AM [link]