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September 19, 2006
The maturation of Yahoo, Tues., Sept. 19, 2006, 10:42 PM
I admit that when I first heard the name Yahoo!, I thought it was a couple of kids showing luddites like me how to access the web. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think it was a company that could make the Cara 100.
Yahoo (NDQ: YHOO) disappointed today when it reported "issues" at a media conference. The shares dropped about -13 pct after management admitted weakness in it advertising business.
But some of us are unconcerned that an advertising paradigm is shifting here.
We know that the U.S. economy is softening and that the home builder and auto industries (for two) are going to pull in their advertising horns. Next will be financial services. The pull-back will be felt in both hard-copy and electronic media.
Yes, I admit there is a niggling worry about Yahoo that the wave of advertising buyers to electronic media may have crested, and, with maturity, will result in a ratcheting down of PE multiples. Well, maybe the worry is a little more than "niggling".
But, you either believe that Google (NDQ: GOOG) and Yahoo are going to be taken down by the shift in business and consumer spending or you believe that Yahoo can't make it in this space, while Google for some reason can go it alone.
I'm not ready to take that leap. I'm still hanging in there with companies like Yahoo, Google and (to an extent) Ebay. I still think this group rises and falls together. I still like the business model of each of them.
Sure there are upstart competitors that will do well, and that's where the superior risk:reward probably lies in this space. But, even if you do believe that the gorilla players in this space are slowing down, and will have to make room for the juniors, I believe your trading strategy comes down to an appetite for risk.
At this point in the stock and business cycles, I admit I'm not eating much -- if anything, I want to see a precious bird in hand rather than two (YHOO and GOOG) in the Bush.
Yahoo Inc [GICS 45, Cara 100]
(YHOO: Yahoo Finance file)
(YHOO: StockChart chart)
(YHOO: Investertech chart)
(YHOO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(YHOO: ADVFN Financial Data)
Google [GICS 45, Cara 100]
(GOOG: Yahoo Finance file)
(GOOG: StockChart chart)
(GOOG: Investertech chart)
(GOOG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GOOG: ADVFN Financial Data)
Speaking of luddites, today was another tech challenge.
After returning from the hospital where stitches were removed (and the doc said she was happy we caught those "tiny cancers" early), I encountered another firewall problem.
A week ago I had to take my printer off the network and plug it directly into my laptop in order to print anything. Then, after trying all afternoon, I spent an hour tonight with a techie who couldn't figure out the firewall problem, and finally agreed that we needed to turn it off and plug the modem right into the laptop to get a new IP address.
Aha, I said, I now can see web pages again... Seven hours later.
I'm bushed. My face still looks awful, but at least I have Internet.
Yahoo!
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 19, 2006 10:42:38 PM | Category: 45 Info Technology
