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September 15, 2006

The folly of following data points, Fri., Sept. 15, 2006, 7:58 AM

Probably the most ridiculous aspect of capital markets is the selling of certain economic data points as keys to future market prices, and the propensity of the American trader to believe in that and to follow along.

At various times in my career, I have watched the financial services industry promote such data as the M3 monetary aggregates, the Jobs Report, and the CPI data, as data to wait for breathlessly each month.

It is all spin folks. Your proper focus on minding your own store is being lost in this noise.

What is happening of course is that Humungous Bank & Broker is giving their spin artists something to put top-of-mind into the public consciousness, while they go about their usual business of trading against their clients.

Nothing ever changes in the market. After the public gets tired of being played by CPI data points, the game will probably change to mortgage foreclosures, or something.

Come to think about it; the spinmeisters will trot that one out after the problem has crested.

As to today's data; I have already heard the CNBC TH's opining that if the CPI number grows by .2 pct the market will "take off to the upside", but that should the data point be .3 pct, the market "will be headed much lower".

So there you go. You, the public, are being hinged on a fulcrum somewhere between .24999 and .25001 as if it doesn't matter at all that the base line statistic is itself a very rough calculation.

None of this matters, of course. If the gnomes and bankers want this market to collapse " because they are positioned for the fall " then the market will collapse. If they want to hold it for now, there may be some extreme near-term action, but in a couple days, the public will have forgotten about CPI and will be spinning on some other data point.

Next week, for example, it could be the Current Account, PPI, Housing Starts, or the 2:15pm Wednesday FOMC decision.

Choose your poison if you wish.

In times like this, I just follow the tape to find my way.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 15, 2006 07:58:56 AM | Category: Economics

Discourse

By logical extension then, we should turn off our TVs, throw away the weeklies and the dailies, tune out the blogs and just watch the tape. Count me in.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 8:49 AM [link]

Well spoken. The combination of your eloquence and passion makes exhilarating reading.

HBB may publicly spin whatever they want - however, as "we" know and the public may not - HBB will try and empty the pockets of as many little people as possible.

With that in mind, I feel the "pumping" stage is set with all of the HBB's prostitutes singing "New highs are here to stay". When does the dumping begin? Soon. As soon as we pierce through the yearly highs on the SPX and DIA. Possibly as early as next week.

JMHO.

Posted by: jragusa [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 8:53 AM [link]

Thanks Bill - a great reminder.

Posted by: ClaudeG [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 9:03 AM [link]

"I just follow the tape to find my way"

Amen
mano

Posted by: mano [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 9:14 AM [link]

For kicks I'm starting to collect marketwatch headlines and market performance in a file. The "Energizing Earnesto" headlines that were up for that weekend corresponded to the top in oil. Today is "all clear for the bulls." The tape seems to say overbought near major resistance.. :)

Posted by: ClaudeG [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 9:24 AM [link]

Great point Bill !

They just malipulate all of it, to make their's.

Just give us a heads up when you think we're headed down. I feel safer in Puts vs. Calls .

Stay well Bill.

Jack

Posted by: John [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 9:50 AM [link]

As you predicted, the market is in fully rally mode, Bill, proving your point. CNBC primed the pump for this.

As a close follower of the HB sector, the data points that truly matter tell me that these stocks should continue to fall, while the tape is telling me that shorts are getting squeezed and retail longs are getting set up for slaughter. It's beginning to feel like late Winter all over again.

I'll study my charts a bit more today and over the weekend to find out if the tape is right or suffering a fit of temporary insanity.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 10:25 AM [link]


Re:Selling of certain data points

I would be more concerned about the "selling" of certain stocks.

What the HBB's did to investors in Ford's (F) this week was obscene.

This kind of stuff just shouldn't happen - and CNBC was complicit all the way - shame on them.

tradesman

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 4:13 PM [link]

Michigan business
SUSAN TOMPOR: Privatizing Ford Motor

August 30, 2006

BY SUSAN TOMPOR

FREE PRESS COLUMNIST

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060830/BUSINESS06/608300461/1088/COL07

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 5:57 PM [link]

Tradesman ,

Forgive me for my insensitivity, but anyone long Ford deserved what they got. The writing has been on the wall for the American auto industry for quite a while. If people are going to gamble on companies like Ford or GM than it needs to be done with money they can afford to lose.
HBB are no different than the casinos in Vegas. Like the casinos, they will lure you into the markets with dreams of riches and than proceed to pick your pockets. The professional gamblers however will always make money as will the professional investors. The stock market is simply a game and needs to be played by professionals. Amateurs can expect to lose money until they start learning the rules and playing like pro's.

Technically speaking a Doji was formed on the charts 2 days ago and RSI was in the distribution zone. Most professionals you figure were out this stock by Thursday at latest and probably shorting too.

I am by no means a market expert infact I am barely an amateur. But even I would not have been foolish enough to chase Ford at this point.

Posted by: TheAdonis [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 6:03 PM [link]


Thanks oratier... for the link

I was just commenting on how the players are really jerking the share price of Ford around... at the expense of the public.

I don't trade it (but should)- I follow it for my father - a retired employee of the company.

I'm sure there's value in there somewhere - but today obviously all the institutions wanted out for the end of the quarter - maybe some were playing it for a tax loss. The rest were playing the usual options "move it up- drop it down" game - to move their calls and puts into the money.

190 million shares in one day - is an incredable amount of paper changing hands.

In any case - IMO this was run up at the publics expense - in anticipation of todays dump.

The question is - was today's dump - a way for the supposed "take it private" players to get the shares cheap? Or is the company really "against the ropes?"

tradesman

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 7:20 PM [link]

In terms of economic data releases, it seems lately that whatever number would be best for the markets is what the number will be. The only real exception being the housing data which is way too obvious to hide.

In regards to the markets, don't be surprised to see the DOW maintaining record highs for the November elections, with a big drop soon after.

Posted by: rick s [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 10:01 PM [link]

About the CPI, according to Mauldin, the actual number was 0.2423, which is conveniently rounded to 0.2%:

"Inflation, we are told, was just 0.2%, whether or not you took into account energy and food. That seems like a nice drop down from the well over 3% we have been seeing. But the number is a "strong" 0.2%. What the actual number came in at was 0.2423%. Rounding took it down to the "2" handle. Annualized, that is 2.9% inflation. Still higher than a central banker would like, but definitely in the right direction from the last few months. "

Posted by: SiO2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 16, 2006 10:27 AM [link]