Gold and oil better catch up soon to these moves in their associated stock prices - otherwise this is a fake out - to distribute.

Sitting on my hands this morning - until this mornings oil report.

tradesman

In reference to last Weekend's Review featuring Bill's SHORT story on 'The Battle of the Little BigDow.'
Hello Bill. Could you comment on whether gold stocks would likely fall in sympathy with the rest of the market in this scenario.

Can we still call this a bear market rally now that $DJI and $SPX are trading above the May 10 highs?

INTC has finally busted through 20 on big volume, so the rally has legs folks. Look at the BBands on a weekly chart of QQQQ; just turned the corner going higher. I am not chasing, but I *am* working to improve my assessment of the actual trading scenario for a given equity/ETF based on technicals. This as opposed to what I think and/or feel should be happening. I am not making money on thought or feeling this month, but I'm not making bad trades either, mostly watching in wonder. Maybe the fix is in for the US midterms and Dems won't take Congress - but who cares "why" - the market continues to "melt up" against the better analysis and judgement of many.

$VIX @ 11.54 ... hmmm

t4k

aside: I'd wait for the second generation of the new Core2 products; they will be more powerful, stable, and energy efficient. And, you won't want to upgrade to "Vista" until at least Vista.SP1, probably 3-6 months following the initial release.

New home sales up -- It is called incentives based prosperity. Think about GM and zero percent financing in 2001 -- that was not a sign of good times to come...

Bill-

A few weeks back you wrote that you thought SMH would trade lower, falling from 30s to 28. How do you square that with "blue skies" for INTC? I mean, if the big kahuna is off and running, how would the sector go the other way?

t4k

t4K

Thanks for the heads up on QQQQ

Even if this "melt-up" continues - I'm keeping a few puts in my back pocket now.

---

Another 200 point traverse and reversal in the TSX today - oils and gold day traders caught going the wrong way I guess - brutal market again...

More people should trade this TSX - amazing volatility.

tradesman

Just curious, anyone know Richard Russell's views on this stock market rally?

I for one am riding this rally higher with an UNDERWEIGHT position. I won't buy in overbought territory even though I would like to have had more stock inventory at lower prices.

I view this rally as:
- The GSCI reweighting in Unleaded Gas forced spec funds to sell.
- That hurt funds who had to meet margin calls across the board, pushing commodity prices lower.
- Money flowed into safe treasuries, pushing yields lower.
- Goldilocks economy with inflation under control story is pushed on TV.
- Stock market rallies in the face of bearish data.

Can the rally continue? Of course.

Will I be on board? Yes, with my current position, but no more.

Was this orchestrated by the head of the Treasury, a former Goldman man? Don't know, but if it was, it will never come out because the Democrats would want him to do the same for them. IMO, the polarization of the two parties (mentioned by Bill) is due to the US citizens allowing it to happen by being part and parcel to the whole thing. As an independent thinker, I wish people would remove their emotions from politics - without that happening, nothing will change because there will never be a third party if everyone takes sides. Both parties like that.

Anyways, anyone know what Russell thinks? Or how about Don Hays? Just curious, won't let it affect my trading.

Tman-

TSX = Toronto Stock Exchange, or ??

Could you post ticker for trade on US exchange(s) ..?

t4k

t4k, yes, SMH is going the wrong way. Intel really hurting it. Intel makes up 16% of the SMH.

We can hope that TXN warns (20%)!

t4K

Ya - TSX - Toronto Stock Exchange

I'm in Canada so trading the Index with leverage and trading the Blue chip energy,mines etc...

The stocks swing 2-5 percent a day - with lots of liquidity... so very ideal for day/swing trading

There is a Canadian Ishares - EWC - but it has no volatilty.

For the record - I am short the whole index - and will remain so until the commodity bear ends.

tradesman

g034

Don Hays is always bullish.
He is also bearish on commodities and gold.
He says the US$ will be going up the next few years.

His recent comments said he thinks a Big move is coming in US equities - but after one more little speedbump - and not until the Fed is ready ( I read this as 'not until as inflation is contained' - ie: commodities bashed more.)

---

I wonder though - if the 'gnomes' have 'let the cat out of the bag' - as one commenter posted in this blog.

So will everyone one rush in now to US stocks? Most likely. People always act on emotion.

But wouldn't the 'gnomes' be selling into this -
then take prices lower - one would think so - but maybe not - if their plan is a "new bull market" - what do they care what price they paid - if "it's all going up anyways".

Anyways - tomorrows GDP should be interesting.

tradesman

An amazing bull/bear battle going on here with the commodity driven TSX today

It has already travelled 300 points and its not even 1 PM yet.

Up 100, down 100, now up 100. That's 3% intraday - and more to come.

This thing is going to move again soon IMO - I favor a further move down - but if gold and oil hang in here - we'll chop up.

tradesman

To the expert chartists:

Do you see a triangle ready to be broken by GOOG or am I imagining things?

http://www.investertech.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=GOOG&wt=1&ind=nn

Thx.

Tradesman,

Haven't seen anything by him in years, just curious, thanks.

I agree on your distribution statement, btw. How many more shorts to be squeezed?

Huge oil inventory and oil goes up, seems like a shorting opportunity on the oil sector?