Bump in the road.

That's what happened over the weekend at Bill's Blog. Our leader is distressed and so are we. Why not form a responding group to Bust up these critters who want to urinate on our party.

For instance: When an off the wall, out of place comment hit's the blog, one or many of us jump in to let the poster know how we disagree, of course using above board language in the process.

I propose we sign our posting with “BBBB� which stand for:

Bill's Blog Bump Busters.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
Last close: 35.11
Last Vol: 23M
Prev Vol: 41M
RSI 43.38 (Turning up)
Stock price closed below daily Bollinger Band (Buy signal)
News: ...good company, Dow 30 component, management shakeout...

There may be a short-term play here for adventuresome traders.

C Note
I agree with your good intentions, although there have been quite a few instances where there have been off the wall comments and quite a few of us have jumped on them to make our feelings known and sadly i feel that it has taken away from the good intentions of this blog. There has to be a better way, i for one would volunteer to delete derogative e mail to help out, perhaps Bill could allow some of the more savvy market types to delete certain unwelcome and perhaps misleading threads, just an idea.

i disagree with all of the commentators. No one only commenting here on the blog (without full name, any responsibility and so on...) should be allowed to edit/clear any comments here.

It is solely on Bills decission what to do. If he does not wish any negative comments he should just close his comments section. If he does wish only certain people should comment, ok thats fine, he should decide. But a comments section without any "negativity" and/or critical comments is of no sense for me. Speak up free everybody or everybody shut his mouth, thats my choice.

btw: Bills work is just great and this blog deserves to be one of my favourite sites of the net!

oratier

HP--it may be a very short play. Seems like there could be more shakeout. Executives, security and investigative players to testify Thursday. Although some will take the 5th amendment, Former chairman Dunn said she would testify. Don't know CEO Hurd's total role which could spook shareholders. If it does, stock could offer even a better price. JMHO.

Re: "Our leader is distressed and so are we"

Re: "Bill could allow some of the more savvy market types to delete certain unwelcome and perhaps misleading threads, just an idea."

Define "savvy market types"?

Maybe I missed something, however, I don't recall reading anything unsavory toward Bill in the comments section over the weekend. If it was an anonymous posting, then Bill currently has the technical resources (IP Address) to respond to, delete if required, and ban from his site is necessary any offensive comments.

The thought police should be careful when they commence the process of banning what they deem to be attacks against "Our leader" (BTW...a title Bill would probably find amusing). I recently read an article about this very same censuring process taking root in China. The article discusses the restrictions being placed on the Google search engine freedom to provide/display information to the mainland. If the thought police are allowed take you in the morn, they certainly shall come for me in the eve.

Bill is retired from an apparent successful career in one of the most brutally competitive industry known to mankind (Financial Services) with his head and heart still intact. I believe he can still handle the occasional "crap dumping passerby". I bet on his good days he may even enjoy slamming these wayward souls with his vast financial knowledge and experience. We see flashes of it when he is really riled.

BTW...I thought "Our leader" said this section was reserved for intra-day market prices and decision tactics only? Follow the leader.

Any thoughts on why Walgreen is tanking? Is it solely the news that Walmart will sell cheap generics? All the main news reports are trumpeting Walgreen's profits and how Walmart won't really be hurting them, but the stock just keeps dropping. I'm trying to decide whether to take profits in a January call that I sold.

Miners getting squashed again today. I'm not seeing a corresponding downward move in the spot prices of gold and silver (down only a bit). What's this? An overreaction to oil again?

And I'm watching Fannie Mae (FNM) keep heading higher again today. I agree with Bill that this is one of the stocks most vulnerable to the the housing slowdown and credit bubble. It just doesn't seem to be cooperating yet.

And the HBs are up on the Existing Sales report, which came in slightly ahead of expectations. There is little good news in the report (sales down over 12% from last year and below July levels), and the national median price down. Expectations have seriously eroded. NAR officials, however, offer their usual bogus spin. It looks like the sector spike to its daily highs for the day immediately after the news.

On comments that you/me/anyone may disagree with -- I generally welcome them as many times make me think about issues that I may not have thought of, or force me to reconsider how strong my case is, etc. In other words, there is value on having a dialog with those that disagree with us. I do not agree with any bulling technique, but I agree with setting the record straight.

On the miners, I think they are getting out of wack and some opportunities in high quality names like BHP are in front of us.

Additional bad news from real estate, at some point the equity market will get hit -- I think the double short ETFs are a good long here

What I observe:

(1)
Usual Sep weakness - not happening.

Possibility - 1st half Oct remains strong - shorts (including me) get squeezed again - all those puts expecting Oct correction expire worthless.

(2)
OPEC - Threatened today to add barrels to a market which is rapidly declining - very strange.

Possibility - organized effort by Fed, Republicans and OPEC to drop price of oil as fast as can - to ensure reelection and buoy consumers and force money flow into equity market.

(3) Economic weakness not reflected in equitites.
Possiblity - correction will happen after election in Nov/Dec.

Action: If no meaningful correction in the next 5 weeks - the correction is being held off to after the election. If Republicans win - market has already discounted their win - so rally after their win will be very short. If Democrats win - market will sell off - stocks already distributed.

Therefore - look to buy puts expecting Nov/Dec/Jan weakness.

...

Just some thoughts

tradesman

http://www.slate.com/id/2071929/
Democrats, it turns out, are much better for the stock market than Republicans. Slate ran the numbers and found that since 1900, Democratic presidents have produced a 12.3 percent annual total return on the S&P 500, but Republicans only an 8 percent return. In 2000, the Stock Trader's Almanac, which slices and dices Wall Street performance figures like baseball stats, came up with nearly the same numbers (13.4 percent versus 8.1 percent) by measuring Dow price appreciation. (Most of the 20th century's bear markets, incidentally, have been Republican bear markets: the Crash of '29, the early '70s oil shock, the '87 correction, and the current stall occurred under GOP presidents.)

According to almanac editor Jeffrey Hirsch, the presidential party figures are among the most significant he's found. If the stock market were random, we'd expect such a result only one-quarter of the time. "I don't know why people are convinced Republicans are good for the stock market," Hirsch says.

Nor does having a Republican Congress help the market. A Democratic Senate showed returns of 10.5 percent (versus 9.4 percent for a GOP upper chamber), and a Democratic House returned 10.9 percent versus 8.1 percent for the Republicans.

When both houses of Congress opposed the president, the return was a stellar 12.9 percent. Libertarians may celebrate this as proof that the market likes gridlock and government inaction. But the market likes steamrollers nearly as much: The S&P performs almost as well—returning 11.8 percent—when the presidency and both houses are held by the same party. The only situation Mr. Market dislikes is what we have now: one house for each party. Those years have a -0.9 percent return.

HPQ

Re: "If it does, stock could offer even a better price. JMHO."

Fundamentally, you're probably correct; I'm just looking for a short-term momemtum gain on this one. I prefer a more significant trend to the upside before considering HPQ a longer-term hold.

Babycondor - I agree with that post - my returns on position trades have always been better when there is either gridlock or when one party is in total control.

But 50% of my trades are primarily swing trades -
and I see an opportunity coming here - depending on how the market behaves in Oct leading upto the election.

My point was - that the powers that be are trying to gun the market now - (a) to try to ensure a win - and (b) to give them a chance to get out (distribute) in case they lose more control.

No matter what the case - if the market holds up through Oct - Nov/Dec/Dec could reflect what should have happened in Aug/Sep/Oct.

If Republicans hold ground or gain more ground - sell the news - market has already rallied.
If Democrates gain ground - sell the news - market has already rallied - and there will be uncertainty.

tradesman

Re: "Democrats, it turns out, are much better for the stock market than Republicans."

Vindication for those reviled (-: Democracts.

Re: "The S&P performs almost as well—returning 11.8 percent—when the presidency and both houses are held by the same party."

And they are not Republicans.

Re: "The only situation Mr. Market dislikes is what we have now: one house for each party. Those years have a -0.9 percent return."

This sentence requires clarification, IMHO.

oratier,

Thank you. The Slate article was dated October 2002, which may help to clarify that last sentence.

Also observe that the same trade that has been in effect since Aug (sell energy/commodities - buy anything else) is working again today.

At first the S&P sells off when oil and oil stocks retreat - like this morning.

But then the money seems to come back into the S&P into the other sectors - pushing it even higher - as people expect a further decline in oil prices.

There is also the possibility - of end of the month window dressing again - where they will drive up the price of what has been doing well this month - back up.

So I expect my US shorts to fail again this time - but traded on the signals anyways.

tradesman

Good short point here 1324-1326 for short sellers with convition - and for day traders to exit IMO...

tradesman

DJ Trans continue to pull back today. An anomaly, or a warning sign? I'll appreciate feedback on this...
Dave

The miners are not following gold up. Traders are not convinced gold will hold 585-590, or are they waiting for gold to break $600 before they follow... Two more days of central bank selling may have something to do with it.

DaveB - I still see this as a good short point - but if the weak hands (shorting) give in again - I expect we'll go higher.

A lot of the move today in the S&P 500 was due to covering of shorts in oil stocks possibly.

Transports not following because they are expecting another move down in oil - after the bounce finished in a day or two perhaps.

tradesman

T'man-

Agree with your observation that this is an energy short killing rally. Took off at same point that oil started to move up. Brutal market.

Funny thing is - if everyone holds onto their non commodity stocks (expecting oil to fall further) and material and energy stocks rally here - the S&P 500 will go even higher.

Also I don't know if anyone follows the OEX100 - but it has continued to make new highs.
As of today - it has retraced 50% from its 2000 peak - the Fib is 615.68 I believe.

So this is a key level.

The so called "smart" OEX traders are short term bearish (based on puts/calls) - but they are long term bullish (based on open interest).

So shorting along with them is a tricky call here - as they might just be hedging their longer term positions.

But I'll take that trade for now (short economically sensitive indices)

BUT - if the Fed is buying bonds and the money is finding its way into equities - non of this technical mumbo jumbo and market indicator stuff
means squat - we'll just keep going up - despite a declining economy - and I'll be forced to cover.

tradesman

I feel like a mouse scurrying around the feet of elephants. I managed to scalp a few bucks on SLW today, but otherwise my shorts are looking bad.

C.Note,

To borrow a phrase from Cramer, the correct response to derogatory emails is usually "Holy cow! How much did this guy lose?"

interesting to me: Nasdaq performs better in recent weeks than the Dow -> hot money going out of commodities and into (high beta) tech-stocks.

If this is the case, the move up will hold longer than many think and it will feed itself.

Jansing

Ya, if commodities keep falling and there are no more preannouncements I think NASDAQ will put in a double top - probably mid October.

Otherwise all of this mo-mo money is caught going the wrong way - and shorts will pay off.

Overall the rally is suspect - what kind of rallies are led by S&P 100 - what kind of rallies have the DOW going up 100 and the transports flat?

I see this as a split market:
It is really 3 markets in 1

(A) Commodity related market - Being taken out.
Short the trend on this.
(B) Inflation sensitive market - Tech, Banks etc
Day trade/ Swing trade up with this.
(C) Economically sensitive market - Transports, R2K etc...
Swing Trade this short on rallies.

Just my game plan anyways....

tradesman