Not that I want to continue reporting the price of gasoline but thought it was an interesting note of parallelism that on the day Hugo Chavez of Venezuela ‘carried' on at the UN his Citgo gas stations in my city had the least expensive gas for sale @$2.08gal !!!! Normally these stations are in line with the majors.

Inexpensive Heating Oil Arrives in US from Venezuela
By Mil Arcega
Washington, D.C.
25 November 2005

http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2005-11/2005-11-25-voa54.cfm?CFID=39201530&CFTOKEN=83013640

This article is nearly one year old.

"Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez, followed through on his promise to help the poor."

Dollar down across the board this morning.

I'd be inclined to short if the DJ Transports can't rise, hold and reclaim their 200 day moving average - if it doesn't - this rally is in serious doubt.

tradesman

Lots of divergences on this rally. MDY, RU2000, Transports, etc. Is $TRAN the short signal or is it BKX?

I was just checking out IWM. Virtually no time premium if you move about five dollars above the strike, even in the outer expirations.

Another indicator to me that the market is getting very overconfident.

To clarify, I was referring to IWM puts.

So will a drop of oil below $60 save the rally?

Or will a drop of oil below $60 wake people up to the words "slowdown"?

Today's close will be important - there is nothing on the calendar for tomorrow - people may want to "clear out" today.

tradesman

Found this site referenced on Kirk Report - very nice ETF TA, screens, and commentary by Arthur Hill.

http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/

I found Bill's site during my own ETF "bootcamp", this site looks like a nice addition for ETF traders.

t4k

RUT looks like it may put in an Outside Down day today - often a sign of more downward action. DOW30 & Nasdaq also. Still holding my RUT short from last Weds close, though today's high was causing me to think.... Looks like it just barely edged into the gap from Tuesday, so I'm looking for that to fill.

Nibbling at SLW again today.

DaveB - just wondering based on the behaviour of $RUT around that gap - should one be inclined to short more if the gap(plus say a certain penetraion) fails to hold as support?

I often prefer to wait to see if the least sloping trend line (722) or in some cases wait until the last bar (717) gets taken out - before adding more.

Just curious what other traders do?

tradesman

Tradesman, looks like RUT quickly filled the gap, so I'm expecting more downward action. If I weren't already short, I'd probably get short on today's outside down day (assuming it holds), since that seems to historically be a good signal on RUT.

Tradesman, please take a look at EEM - the ETF for emerginging markets equities. It looks like it may be getting ready to break down to me - what do you think?

number2son

Did some nibbling myself on SLW at yesterday's close as it hit the 200 SMA again.

DaveB

Had a look at EEM - and can't disagree with you.

The daily chart is weak - money flow indicators show money coming out of the fund the past months as the price is rising which is not good... and it has diverged in price since Aug17 with the US market - again not good.

The only problem I would have shorting this one would be diversification - correct me if I'm wrong - but the fund appears to be about 30% South Korea (mostly tech). So it may not be as diversified a short as one thinks.

But based on technicals alone - its sitting in a ton of different supports right now - so if they break there's nothing underneath - June's lows could easily be tested.

tradesman