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September 20, 2006

Studying the junior resource companies, Wed., Sept. 20, 2006, 9:58 AM

Starting this weekend there are a couple "gold shows" " one in Denver (for larger companies) and one in Toronto (for the smaller ones).

I'll be in Toronto and a couple associates will be in Denver. Here are the programs, which include the companies that will make presentations or offer exhibits.

Toronto

Denver

I don't know what the cost of the Denver show is (probably no charge), but for all these important companies to attend speaks volumes about the Show's quality. The Toronto show is free to those who pre-register, and just $25 at the door.

If any reader wants questions asked of any of these companies, please forward them direct to me at Bill@BillCara.com, using the header "gold show query" in the subject line. I'll try to report back in the blog next week.

Also, there are a couple readers who wish to meet up with me at the Toronto show on Sunday and/or Monday. I'll be there both days.

I don't keep a strict schedule for these things, but if you'd like send an e-mail direct to me at Bill@BillCara.com, using the header "meet-up at Toronto gold show" in the subject line, we'll try to work out a time and place to meet.

After I get this sub-group of the Virtual Investor Club rolling, I intend to start others -- by country, for instance. Also, one for special situations in technology.

Also, I have been working on a Report template for shared research on public companies of all sizes, including the junior resource ones. After I get the mechanics worked out, I'll better organize the volunteer group.

Yesterday, I made arrangements to take down daily price data from 40 stock exchanges plus most of the derivative markets. Now I'll be able to update my GICS-coded database of some 36,000 securities, and produce some amazing presentations.

Senior techies who want to give me a hand with this may send me a note at Bill@BillCara.com, using the header "Database volunteer" in the subject line. As you all have noted, I am mostly Luddite.

Anything good like this takes time to put together on a free basis, but it's coming along.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 20, 2006 09:58:07 AM | Category: Special Situation Equities

Discourse

I know of one newsletter writer who gives recommendations on these types of stocks - he charges over $4000 usd a year.

Posted by: g034 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 10:26 AM [link]

g034,

I guarantee that We The People can do a better job ourselves. In fact, I'm looking forward to it.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 10:48 AM [link]

Thank you again for doing this (billcara.com) as a free service. I am so glad I stumbled upon this blog several months ago.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 10:50 AM [link]

btw, I haven't commented on Venezuela's decision to delay a vote on the mining law, although maybe I should have.

Crystallex's CEO Todd Bruce told me some time ago that he believed the vote on the mining law would be delayed but that he also believes that the environmental permit review was by far the most important factor, and that he has been told by the state authorities that the permit would not be held up by the federal vote on the mining law.

If I might be wrong on this, please jump in.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 11:04 AM [link]

There was a report yesterday to the same effect:

Crystallex stock falls but CEO still expects permit
Tue Sep 19, 2006 6:10pm ET148

Crystallex CEO Todd Bruce made the comments on the same day the company's stock dropped 10 percent on a report that the process to amend the existing mining law in Venezuela would take longer than expected. Reuters was unable to confirm the report.

But Bruce said the two issues were unrelated.

"We continue to be advised that there is no connection between the timing of the passage of the amended mining law and the issuance of an environmental permit for our Las Cristinas project," he said.

http://tinyurl.com/my4ee

The thing that worries me is that now Todd's tone is that the final permit is 99.99%, thus baked into the pps. So if there are any rumors or delays the pps swings 10%. Also if/when the final permit is granted, will the pop be less because of the baking in of the potential news over many months of waiting?

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 11:23 AM [link]

I do not like the way gold is being goosed up on the charts boys. Very similar to Monday's action. No wonder the miners are wary. Just sayin'.

KRY got a 10% haircut right after a litlle countertrend runup on Venezuelan newspaper stories and press conferences? You don't say!

This market is very dangerous. Lot of smoke in the room that traders are choosing to ignore or are calling "part of the ambience".

Signed,
Cincinnati Cynic

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 11:38 AM [link]

Comment on Crystallex:
NYUgrad,
I too have started to worry about the pps post permit. I am more worried that it will pass with out notice, due to the fact that a lot of investors have just plain given up on this stock. Yesterday's article proved that investors are still real gun shy about Venezuela.
That said, I still think you need to look at the positives of the Las Cristinas site, especially in a world with the majors facing dwindling reserves.

Derek

Posted by: dlmetzer [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 11:54 AM [link]

It's like the child at the toy store. If the parents promise him/her a new toy on the way to the mall, they can only say "next time" so many times before a major tantrum erupts.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 12:04 PM [link]

Comment on Crystallex:

Translation of Reuters América Latina News re Crystallex - Martes 19 de September, 2006 6:40 GMT163

Link: http://lta.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-09-19T224110Z_01_N19445614_RTRIDST_0_NEGOCIOS-MINERIA-VENEZUELA-REFORMA-SOL.XML
---
"Parlamento Venezuela debatirá en octubre reforma ley de minas" =

The Venezuelan Government will debate in October the reform of the mine law.

In October the Venezuelan Parlament will debate a report for the reform of the Mine Law which would grant the Government control over concessens and inactive miner contracts as part of a campaign to increment its presence in this strategic basic resource sector.

The change in legislation has caused fear about the future of the projects in the Latin American state, where foreign companies like the Canadian Crystallex and the American Hecla Mining operate.

According to a published communication by the National Assembly on Monday, the president of the Energy and Mining Commission, Angel Rodriguez, said that a preliminary report for the Mine Law reform will be presented in the first half of October.

The legislative body, made up in totality by officials, had foreseen to discuss the legal modifications in June.

The affected exploration miners will be converted into mixed companies with a majority state holding, the same as was done with the old petrol sector contracts, or transformed into mine co-operation societies.

Crystallex is waiting for the environmental permit to be issued by the Government in order to start operating the enormous goldmine of Las Cristalinas and it is not clear if the modifications of the law could affect the company's pretensions.

According to the Ministry of Basic Industries and Mining, there are 760 valid mining permits
for an area of 1.36 million hectares.

The Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez already implemented a series of changes which incremented the state participation in the energy sector of the fifth major crude oil exporter as part of a campaign to regain sovereignty over the natural resources.

---

I like Crystallex but am somehow worried...

Posted by: Chuck Kap [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 2:11 PM [link]

So who picked up on this morning's hint?

"I do not like the way gold is being goosed up on the charts boys. Very similar to Monday's action. No wonder the miners are wary. Just sayin'."

SO AFTER THE FED ANNOUNCEMENT GOLD STARTS DROPPING AND THE MINERS GO RED. I need to take stockman's prompting on that "MarkM Trading Maniac" blog.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 2:51 PM [link]


Re: "So who picked up on this morning's hint"

I got the hint, but was trading against it as
a day trade on FCX - as that's what was moving this a.m.

The monthly charts for AEM and FCX look very very scary indeed - so I agree with MarkM when he said: "This market is very dangerous"

But ultimately I think there is still value in junior resources - but I would be reluctant to buy these until there is a washout - a big washout.

tradesman

Posted by: Tradesman [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2006 3:57 PM [link]