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September 1, 2006

Size matters in the gold mining business, Fri., Sept. 1, 2006, 11:40 AM

UBS has opined in much the same positive way as me with respect to the potential merger between Goldcorp and Glamis Gold. Download UBS Aug 31 report on Goldcorp.

Following a valuation adjustment in the shares of Goldcorp (TSX: G and NYSE: GG), I expect that over time the market will favor this deal. I like the combination.

Former Goldcorp CEO Rob McEwen has different views. He attributes Goldcorp's move as a change in strategy of moving from shareholder value through organic growth to one of being an imprudent acquisitor, drunken by power and paying exorbitant prices for assets.

I respect Rob McEwen as much as any person in the gold industry, but I think he is mostly unhappy at the ten pct hit that Goldcorp shareholders are taking in making this Glamis deal. Rob kept a lot of his money in the Goldcorp shares out of his respect for their business model and operating management. Things change.

McEwen holds about 3 pct of the Goldcorp shares, so yesterday's deal was a shock to him financially. He literally lost millions immediately with the Goldcorp-Glamis announcement and not unexpectedly has spoken out personally against Goldcorp's Ian Telfer for pushing this deal.

But let's not be guided by Rob's personal assessment. Let's listen to independent investment analysts for their take. So far, I think they are impressed that Goldcorp has managed to climb to the top rung of the gold ladder.

As a combo with Glamis, Goldcorp is in better shape to meet the needs of shareholders in the future. Forget the past. As soon as the deal closes, we look forward. I like what I see.

Yes, I'll be buying Goldcorp on the dips and selling after extended rallies. Just like Barrick's Peter Munk moved aside, so too will Ian Telfer. His job will have been done in spades. Why spit on his immense career success?

I have met both gentlemen, and trust me, both are gentlemen. I'm disappointed to read what Rob McEwen has said about his former partner.

In the future of Goldcorp, Kevin McArthur will become a top-flight world name in the gold mining business. By all accounts he is an excellent operator. He will preside, as CEO, over the lowest cost most diversified group of gold mines in the world. The size of his capital base will enable his financial team to access the same credit facilities as Barrick and Newmont, so he will be in the running to acquire interesting and valuable opportunities of the small and mid-sized variety.

Compared to 10, 20 and 30 years ago, gold mining is now a hugely expensive business. Large companies like Goldcorp will get stronger and the smaller ones will be nimbly trying to raise expensive capital to take on high-risk prospecting activities. And then they'll get taken over by the giants, because size matters. It is impossible to stay small forever because mineral resource is a depleting asset.

The only sustainable companies are the large ones. The rest are merely short-term trading opportunities until, in time, they hopefully get over-priced and available for take-over. Glamis made that decision. It was a good one.

As to Rob McEwen's U.S. Gold Co., I have received an information package from the company. A couple days ago, I strongly recommended the shares. You see, the gold mining industry has both prospector and developer side of the coin. The developers are getting pricey and a few of the prospectors, like Rob McEwen, are focused on creating wealth. I have put my money on McEwen to make it for me.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 1, 2006 11:40:54 AM | Category: Goldminer Producers

Discourse

Thank you for the UBS report and insights!

Get well soon.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2006 12:11 PM [link]