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September 1, 2006
Report on Canada's economic health, Fri., Sept. 1, 2006, 9:18 AM
Changes are in store for what is traditionally referred to as "the world's longest undefended border". U.S.-Canada border guards are going to become armed, and they are going to demand to see a passport.
Little has been written about the U.S. Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI), but beginning January 8, 2007 (air) and 2008 (land), all travellers will be required to present a passport when entering or re-entering the U.S.
So, no longer is the U.S. border a beckoning one to Canadians. And no longer will Americans feel free to wander into Canada.
There are implications of closing the U.S. borders, you know.
For background on WHTI, I turned to the Canadian government website for no-spin information.
I believe implementation of the U.S. WHTI will have a dramatically negative economic impact on Canada's tourism industry, but due to prudent monetary and fiscal management, the rest of the Canadian economy is thankfully in good health.
Due to the WHTI, the Conference Board of Canada (a leading independent economic consultancy) has forecasted a decline of total U.S. visits to Canada at -14.5 pct from baseline 2006 through 2008. Overnight U.S. visits are expected to decline by -12.3 pct over three years.
You be the judge to see the impact: this year, into the Province of Ontario alone, there will be a total of 3.529 million foreign visits, of which 2.817 million will be Americans, including 1.850 million in automobiles.
Can't you just see the angst of families who have trekked up from Ohio on the way to the family cottage, to be stopped and told: "Sorry, your 80-year old Mom and 4-year old son fail to possess the necessary travel document; You cannot legally enter Canada, and if you do, you'll have great difficulty returning to your homeland."
So much for that family cottage that was built in 1920 by great-great grand dad who fought side by side Johnny Canuck in the trenches of the European war theatre, and whose children and theirs have married and been married to Canadians for 60 years.
But U.S. Homeland Security has drawn the line: "Enough fraternization with foreigners. Stick to your own."
As much as it pains me to say this, I agree with the foreign travel documentation policy. I have had a passport for 40 years, and have always handed it to the U.S. authorities rather than the usual photo id.
But I also think that now the passport is compulsory we should all be provided the electronic documentation as part of the birth or landed immigration documentation, and there should be no cost or inconvenience for us to update that info onto an electronic document every five years at any government office. It should be automatic.
Why should bureaucracy make living so difficult? It should be our decision as to whether or not we wish to cross borders, and this WHTI program is going to take that decision out of the hands of hundreds of thousands of Americans and Canadians who simply won't bother.
In any case, to try to replace the loss of U.S. visitation, the Canadian hospitality industry is now advertising heavily in the Chinese market. The numbers of travellers from China is already up substantially. Consequently, I believe that stronger economic ties will ensue between Canada and China, and weaker ones will follow between the U.S. and Canada.
That's not something our parents or grand parents ever thought possible. And there is going to be an economic fall out.
I'm left wondering if perhaps WHTI was a key reason for Joe Hussein to sell out Intrawest Corp. After all, the Whistler Blackcomb and Tremblant "Playgrounds" were driven extensively by American tourists who heretofore have not required passport documents. Travel there from a few hundred miles away was like staying at home: totally safe, same culture, and so forth.
Many of us, for many years, have held passports for international travel, but many have not. Those near the border have always thought of the other side as being more like them than remote parts of their own country.
Can you imagine the numbers of New York State visitors to the casino at Niagara Falls Ontario who simply will no longer make the trip? Many of these people are older, you know, and a large number of them will not endure the time, cost or inconvenience to acquire these travel documents.
Similarly the numbers of Canadians from Southwestern Ontario who take day trips to Buffalo to watch the Bills and Sabres will drop off significantly.
I don't know how this will play out in the short term, other than to say there will be a significant economic impact in some businesses.
Longer term I expect we'll all buy those required international travel documents, and the economic impact will be lessened.
My point is that change was necessary, but it could have been much better managed. Once again, government has let us down.
Btw, in going through the Conference Board of Canada data this morning, I took note of the following:
• Their forecast of a Loonie (priced in USD) peaking at about US$0.915 in 2007
• Oil price has already peaked
• U.S. interest rates have peaked and will fall in 2007 to the level of Canada's, which will rise only slightly
• After-tax income in Canada will hit record levels this year because of cuts in federal sales tax (GST) and provincial income tax rates
• Canadian CPI falling from 2.2 pct in 2005 to 1.9 pct in 2006 and 1.7 pct in 2007, while real consumer spending growth remains between +3.1 and +3.8 pct
• Canadian real disposable income growth to rise from +2.5 pct in 2005 to +4.8 pct in 2006 and +3.2 pct in 2007
• Housing starts to remain strong after peaking in 2004
• With reasonable public accounts estimates through 2008, there will be ten straight years of federal government budget surpluses, and seven years of total provincial government surpluses (minimal deficits in 1999, 2003 and 2004)
• Real government spending on goods and services being contained at +2.4 and 3.0 pct (max.) during 2004-2007
• Alberta with the oil sands remains the "land of opportunity" but after another lackluster year this year for manufacturers and exporters, the economy will become stronger next year
The only concern of significance appears to be related to the U.S. Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI), and that's going to negatively impact Canada's tourism and hospitality industry, thereby requiring change in investment and marketing strategy.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 1, 2006 09:18:01 AM | Category: Canada
Discourse
Thanks for the excellent CBC summary. It sounds quite rosy. I understand they are not spinners, correct? Would you agree that interest rates have peaked?
Posted by: ursus
at
September 1, 2006 10:35 AM [link]
Me thinks the word "trilateral" has Rep. Paul on edge.
As in... http://www.trilateral.org/about.htm
Visit the past and current membership tab (Paul A. Volker, David Rockefeller, Thomas S Foley, etc,).
Posted by: oratier
at
September 1, 2006 10:49 AM [link]
Kaimu, I had no idea.
Actually, I should have had an idea. My sister was hammering at me on the subject of CAFTA and NAFTA a long time ago. The problem was that I didn't really believe her. Then.
Thank you very much for your detailed comment and information.
Posted by: GemmaStar
at
September 1, 2006 10:52 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
To read more on Congressman Ron Paul's fight against BIG government and his initiative to reinstate US Constituional values go to his website.
He has his "Project Freedom" mailing list. This guy is probably the only elected politician in Washington DC that is on the "little guy's" side. He is the only one that grills both Greenspan and Bernanke on their mismanagement of the US monetary system and their deceptive data and practices. Many of his past and present speeches in the House are posted on his website.
Posted by: kaimu
at
September 1, 2006 11:00 AM [link]
Ron Paul is widely regarded in Washington as a crank. He's the kind of politician who regularly finds himself on the losing side of 434-1 votes in the House of Representatives.
I just consulted the Congressional database of legislation, and failed to find a single piece of material legislation that Rep. Paul has successfully written in his 20 years in Congress. There might be something that I missed, but one has to hunt high and low to find him as anything other than a self-appointed Don Quixote without influence on the issues of the day.
This doesn't mean everything he says is bunkum, of course, but given his gadfly status I would counsel caution before relying upon him as a source of learned insight into Washington.
Posted by: Novalawyer
at
September 1, 2006 11:32 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
From Bernanke's last run in with Congressman Ron Paul ... In this exchange Bernanke comes off as a cheap hustler being interviewed by Mike Wallace on 60 Minutes ... What is this "I don't know" stuff coming from a Fed Chairman controlling our money????
Show me any other politician that speaks to Bernanke this way ... I am sure Greenspan warned Bernanke about Paul, but I see Bernanke doesn't think as fast on his feet as Greenspan did ...
READ ON:
From the Hearings on Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
Committee on Financial Services, the U.S. House of Representatives
July 20, 2006, Washington, D.C.
MR. PAUL: Good afternoon, Chairman Bernanke.
I have a question dealing with the Working Group on Financial Markets. I want to learn more about that group and actually what authority they have and what they do. Could you tell me, as a member of that group, how often they meet and how often they take action; and have they done something recently? And are there reports sent out by this particular group?
MR. BERNANKE: Yes, Congressman. The President's Working Group was convened
by the President, I believe, after the 1987 stock market crash. It meets irregularly, I would guess about four or five times a year, but I am not exactly sure. And its primary function is advisory, to prepare reports. I mentioned earlier that we have been asked to prepare a report on the terrorism risk insurance. So that is what we generally do.
MR. PAUL: In the media you will find articles that will claim that it is a lot more than an advisory group you know, if there is a stock market crash, that you literally have a lot of authority, you know, to impose restrictions on the market. And we are talking about many trillions of dollars slushing around in all the financial markets, and this involves Treasury and, of course, the Fed, as well as the SEC and the CFTC. So there is a lot of potential there.
And the reason this came to my attention was just recently there was an article that actually made a charge that out of this group came actions to interfere with the prices of General Motors stock. Have you read that, or do you know anything about that?
MR. BERNANKE: No, sir, I don't.
MR. PAUL: Because they were charging that there was a problem with General Motors, and then there was a spike in GM's stock prices.
But back to the issue of the meeting. You tell me it meets irregularly, but there are minutes kept, or are there reports made on this group?
MR. BERNANKE: I believe there are records kept by the staff. These are staff mostly from Treasury, but also from the other agencies.
MR. PAUL: And they would be available to us in the committee?
MR. BERNANKE: I don't know. I am sorry, I don't know.
MR. PAUL: The other question I have deals with a comment made by one of the members of the Federal Reserve Board just recently. He made a statement which was a rather common statement made. He expressed a relief that the economy was weakening, mainly – inferring that the weakening economy would help contain inflation. And I hear these comments a lot of times, the economy is too strong, and therefore we need a weaker economy. If this assumption is correct – would you agree that this assumption – that a weaker economy is helpful when you are worried about inflation?
MR. BERNANKE: Congressman, as I talked about in my testimony, we need to go to a sustainable pace. We need to have a pace which matches the underlying productive capacity; that will probably be a bit less robust than the last few years, because over the last few years we were also reemploying underutilized resources, and going forward we don't have that slack to put to work.
MR. PAUL: But if you accept the principle, as it seemed to be in this quote, that if you are worried about inflation, you slow up the economy, and then inflation is brought down, it is lessened, it infers that inflation is caused by economic growth, and I don't happen to accept that, because most people accept the fact that inflation is really a monetary phenomenon. And it also introduces the notion that growth is bad, and yet I see growth as good. Whether it is 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, if you don't have monetary inflation, we don't need to worry, because if you have good growth in the marketplace rather than artificial growth, that it is this growth that causes your productivity to increase. You have an increase in productivity, and it does help bring prices down, but it doesn't deal with inflation.
And I think what I am talking about here could relate to the concerns of the gentleman from Massachusetts about real wages. There is a lot of concern about real wages versus nominal wages, but I think it is a characteristic of an economy that is based on fiat currency that is just losing its value that it is inevitable that the real labor goes down. As a matter of fact, Keynes advocated it. He realized that in a slump, that real wages had to go down; and he believed that you could get real wages down by inflation, that the nominal wage doesn't come on and keep the nominal wage up, have the real wage come down and sort of deceive the working man. But it really doesn't work because ultimately the working man knows he is losing, and he demands cost of living increases.
So could you help me out in trying to understand why we should ever attack economic growth? Why can't we just say economic growth is good and it helps lower prices because it increases productivity?
MR. BERNANKE: Congressman, I agree with you. Growth doesn't cause inflation; what causes inflation is monetary conditions or financial conditions that stimulate spending which grows more quickly that the underlying capacity of the economy to produce. Anything that increases the economy to produce, be it greater productivity, greater workforce, other factors that are productive, is only positive. It reduces inflation.
MR. PAUL: Do you see our deficits that we produce – and that you have control on – as a burden to the Fed in managing monetary affairs and maintaining interest rates as well as maybe even living with a lower increase in the money supply?
MR. BERNANKE: Well, in our short-term monetary policymaking, we are able to adjust for the conditions of fiscal policy, however they may be. I think fiscal issues are more important in the long-term sense because of the long-term obligations we have, for example, for entitlements. We have not found the fiscal situation to be a major impediment to our short-term management of monetary policy.
August 24, 2006
Dr. Ron Paul is a Republican member of Congress from Texas. END
Posted by: kaimu
at
September 1, 2006 11:52 AM [link]
I've met Ron Paul. He represents the hard money crowd, so of course he's a Washington outsider.
Mr. Paul and I are similar in many ways. We speak our mind, and we simply ask people to think, think, think for themselves, and not just sit by drinking the lemonade from Washington.
It's unfortunate, but Washington is really a place for Talking Heads of powerful interest groups. Ron Paul stands apart as a person of integrity who represents the little people.
At least, that's my take on the man over a span of over 20 years.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 1, 2006 12:05 PM [link]
Re: "Dr. Ron Paul is a Republican member of Congress from Texas. END"
As shocking as the following may read, I rise in agreement with some of my more conservative blogging colleagues on the integrity (mixed with a pinch of urban mythology) of Rep. Ron Paul.
Posted by: oratier
at
September 1, 2006 12:57 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Bill, on that note about Canada tightening its border we here in the USA this ... SPP ...
More government efforts to control us and have us pay for it ... Wake up time !!!
This is from the US House Of Representatives, Ron Paul Of Texas(Rep) ...
READ ON:
A North American United Nations?
by Ron Paul
Globalists and one-world promoters never seem to tire of coming up with ways to undermine the sovereignty of the United States. The most recent attempt comes in the form of the misnamed "Security and Prosperity Partnership Of North America (SPP)." In reality, this new "partnership" will likely make us far less secure and certainly less prosperous.
According to the US government website dedicated to the project, the SPP is neither a treaty nor a formal agreement. Rather, it is a "dialogue" launched by the heads of state of Canada, Mexico, and the United States at a summit in Waco, Texas in March, 2005.
What is a "dialogue"? We don't know. What we do know, however, is that Congressional oversight of what might be one of the most significant developments in recent history is non-existent. Congress has had no role at all in a "dialogue" that many see as a plan for a North American union.
According to the SPP website, this "dialogue" will create new supra-national organizations to "coordinate" border security, health policy, economic and trade policy, and energy policy between the governments of Mexico, Canada, and the United States. As such, it is but an extension of NAFTA- and CAFTA-like agreements that have far less to do with the free movement of goods and services than they do with government coordination and management of international trade.
SPP website http://spp.gov/
Critics of NAFTA and CAFTA warned at the time that the agreements were actually a move toward more government control over international trade and an eventual merging of North America into a border-free area. Proponents of these agreements dismissed this as preposterous and conspiratorial. Now we see that the criticisms appear to be justified.
Let's examine just a couple of the many troubling statements on the SPP's US government website:
"We affirm our commitment to strengthen regulatory cooperation...and to have our central regulatory agencies complete a trilateral regulatory cooperation framework by 2007"
Though the US administration insists that the SPP does not undermine US sovereignty, how else can one take statements like this? How can establishing a "trilateral regulatory cooperation" not undermine our national sovereignty?
The website also states SPP's goal to "[i]mprove the health of our indigenous people through targeted bilateral and/or trilateral activities, including in health promotion, health education, disease prevention, and research." Who can read this and not see massive foreign aid transferred from the US taxpayer to foreign governments and well-connected private companies?
Also alarming are SPP pledges to "work towards the identification and adoption of best practices relating to the registration of medicinal products." That sounds like the much-criticized Codex Alimentarius, which seeks to radically limit Americans' health freedom.
Even more troubling are reports that under this new "partnership," a massive highway is being planned to stretch from Canada into Mexico, through the state of Texas. This is likely to cost the US taxpayer untold billions of dollars, will require eminent domain takings on an almost unimaginable scale, and will make the US more vulnerable to those who seek to enter our country to do us harm.
This all adds up to not only more and bigger government, but to the establishment of an unelected mega-government. As the SPP website itself admits, "The Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America represents a broad and ambitious agenda." I hope my colleagues in Congress and American citizens will join me in opposing any "broad and ambitious" effort to undermine the security and sovereignty of the United States.
August 30, 2006
Posted by: kaimu
at
September 1, 2006 10:32 AM [link]