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September 14, 2006

Latest on Crystallex, Thurs., Sept. 14, 2006, 3:19 PM

I spoke this morning to Crystallex CEO Todd Bruce. The bottom line, he says, is: "We will get the permit when we get it." What he means of course is that they are going to get it; he just doesn't know when.

Is he concerned? Didn't sound like concern to me when he said that there is really one issue, which is whether the three different miners in that area need three airstrips or one. "It's a peripheral issue, and I'll be happy to resolve it," he said.

There is really so little to report here, I don't know what traders expect. If you are hung up on country risk, or not wanting to support mining in a country like Venezuela, that's fine, but don't bother commenting here. The line doesn't start with you. There are millions who agree with you.

Do I agree? Obviously no.

I believe Venezuela is a significant economic force in the Americas, and one that supplies the U.S. with a lot of oil. If you want to cut that off too, then I guess you'd like to see a price of $4 or $5 a gallon at the fuel pump.

I do believe the Bolivar State permit issue is a local environmental issue, which will be resolved soon. End of story.

Did the Dow Jones reporter write a constructive report on Crystallex yesterday? Yes, but it's about time. Now, apparently, he has the Gold Reserve people upset. It's time to stop reading these reports anyway, and time to meet management.

I think both Crystallex (KRY) and Gold Reserve (GRZ) represent outstanding speculative value, but I don't know management at Gold Reserve.

Most of the precious metals companies I have listed in this blog as ones I support are exhibiting and/or speaking at the Denver Gold Forum Sept 24-27. Crystallex and Gold Reserve definitely will be there, and so will Alamos Gold, Aurelian, Barrick, Glencairn, Goldcorp, Golden Star, High River, Lihir, Queenstake, Newmont, Northgate, U.S. Gold, and Yamana, plus so many more.

I hope you attend. In fact the myGrassroot group will have a few people there, and we'll hear from them.

I'll be in Toronto meeting with the tiny cap group at the Cambridge gold show, and I'll write that up too.

At the end of the day, gold is not going away. Ever. Paper money does because governments print it faster than it gets invested economically, such as during war time.

So as long as we have war and a well greased money printing machine, then gold will be in demand, and the price will rise.

Today, the gold stocks are getting hammered, with only 3 up and 31 down on my board, but I see that Crystallex is up +3.4 pct on the day. I guess traders are listening re KRY.

They should be.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 14, 2006 03:19:06 PM | Category: Goldminer Producers

Discourse

It seems to me that a shared airport would also mean shared developmental costs as well as shared expenses for that airport. Seems beneficial to all parties including the environment. I can't imagine an airport big enough to support the 3 parties would be much bigger than the one to support only one single party.

Posted by: dlmetzer [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2006 3:30 PM [link]

I wonder how long Crystallex will remain Crystallex once they do have the permit. Maybe a major will wait and simply buy all three parties.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2006 3:44 PM [link]

Lazy question, but who is the third Miner?

Hecla?
Shandong gold?
Gold Fields?

Posted by: dlmetzer [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2006 3:58 PM [link]

Bill -

Clearly, the fundamentals favor gold price increases. But, are you not taken aback by the ferocity of the decline, for example in GG? 16.7% if five trading days!

Such declines are not so unusual. I found one 10+% weekly decline in GG about every year since 2000. The week ending 6/10/02 saw an 18.5% decline.

The selling pressure, apparently from the CB's and HBB's, is NOT subtle! Isn't it safer to buy after 9/26 when the Washington Agreement is said to expire?

Even then, if Western governments really get worried about a deep recession, they still have LOTS of gold they could sell ...

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2006 6:09 PM [link]

Well said, Jock. Markets are tough enough without having to trade against governments.
I for one have been stopped out of so many PM positions that my head is spinning. I am holdng a few long term profitable positions (for tax purposes) and watching them go up and down like "whores drawers", and one or two special situation specs like KRY, but beyond that I am as heavily in cash as I have ever been.
Until we get through triple witching, and September 26th, I am staying on the sidelines. Even then I think caution is advised until after the November elections.
Then I hope to have gained the insights necessary to get back into this crazy market.
My only true regret is having been stopped out of QID, and now have to look for a new entry....
just my luck Monday will be the second black one.
Luck to all.

Posted by: Rigdon [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2006 7:09 PM [link]

Gold volatile and nervous in front of CPI data Bill. Was this all an engineered takedown before a hot number? Is the equities float-up just to give The Boys some selling room? That would be consistent. And all the players could start filling orders before the little guys even got a crack at it when the 9:30 open comes. Was I always this cynical Bill or have I changed over the last 18 months?

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 6:15 AM [link]

MarkM

I don't see your comments as cynical, but as clear as they can be. What I sense though is a much harsher climate in the markets (and in the companies) since a few months. I'm more and more inclined to say that the equation changed when Hank Paulson took over from Snow at the Treasury and in effect took over the reigns of this administration. For the first time the Big Boys can feel totally safe again; they are part of the governement now.

Posted by: tinman [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 7:01 AM [link]

Sounds like a plan MarkM, hope you are right, but this is tripple or 4x witching, I'd think they need to keep prices up *today* ;-)

Can the Pros and brokers actually tell if orders have been filled ahead of market opening?


Posted by: SiO2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 7:12 AM [link]

Concur on Paulson and "harsh climate". Concur on quad-witching. Comment aimed at gold spot market that can be taken one way or the other before The Little People have their morning coffee. I am seriously thinking about taking my cash and investing it in real estate projects WHERE I CAN CONTROL MOST OUTCOMES.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 7:57 AM [link]

Very well spoken tinman. The equity investing game changed considerably when Paulson took over. One factor to consider, he is the 1st treasury secretary that had the benefit of hidden M3 (Snow had it only 3 months), so the govt/bank conglomerate has much more power.

I wrote my congressman asking for legislation to disclose M3.

Posted by: rick s [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 15, 2006 10:07 AM [link]

Good Morning Bill, this is my first post to your board and let me say our KRY board over at Stockhouse has relied on you for your great intel regarding this play.

A couple of questions:
1. Do you know if the general public can attend the Denver Gold Forum?
2. Do you know if the companies presentations from these forums are available on the internet?

Posted by: BritNick [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 17, 2006 12:12 PM [link]