$VIX @ 11.38 this AM. Maybe "it's different this time" ??

t4k

So lets say oil is dropped to 60 today... new market high?

Paulson speaks at 11:00 so down goes gold...

Most important it is end of quarter on the 15th for tax time for this quarter - so need to keep these prices up.... is this what the pump has been about the 1st 2 weeks of Sept?

Need to try to create a new market high as there is no one to distribute to - so need some new buyers to keep things up to end of quarter?

lets see...

tradesman

As they say, "Sometimes ya can't win for losin'"! Here I put my reputation on the line out there in Bill's WIR saying that my chartwork shows that the turnaround in $USD and $WTIC will take place in the next three days so the pressure will finally be off gold and gold moves lower anyway! Okay gold, you've got until spot market close to save me. :)

Meanwhile GG is sliding off the face of the earth.

Nice bounce in oils this a.m. anyways...

Time to dabble in golds?

SAVED AT THE BELL. MY REPUTATION IS INTACT. THANK YOU g034 AND FRIENDS FOR POOLING MILK MONEY FOR THAT LAST BUY. ;)

MarkM...

I found your gold charts interesting. - but I was a bit surprised that you do not use the TSX Index as one of your indicators.

When your "gold indicators" line up at the same time the TSX Index hits a major support or trend line - this is usually a good trade.

You can often spot divergences between the TSX and XAU/HUI or XOI - to give hints about the future direction.

We hit some support in the 11600's in the TSX - so gold and oils should move up from here - if not 11200's could be next...

..just my 2 cents...

By the way Budget is released at 2PM today so it could account for some of the positioning in gold today...

tradesman

ok, if I was managing a proprietary hedge fund (which I am not), this is what I would have been looking to do this month.

First, I know that seasonal demand for gold starts at the beginning of September.

Second, I know that this seasonal demand would be overwhelmed by central bank gold sales per the Washington Agreement, if the central banks that signed on were to sell their full allocations.

Third, central banks window for sales per said agreement ends at the end of the month.

Fourth, as of September 1, they only sold 340 tonnes of their 500 max. They average 33 tonnes sold a month, so selling the 160 tonnes remaining (if they actually meet their max) would rock the gold market.

Fifth, the government "powers that be" would like to be able to say that inflation has been defeated, so they may "help" the possible decline in the price of gold, pre-election.

Sixth, there are many gold mining stocks with significant ownership through margin purchases. These holders can be scared into selling into weakness.

So; I would pick out some miners with significant margin interest and when gold started to sell off, I would pound these shares down. Then I would pound some more. Not looking for best price, simply looking to move prices lower at a magnitude that scares people. This has been done before and will be done again, so I know that other traders will be doing the same along side me. Their help will be advantageous on the way down, but I don't want to be left holding the bag at the end of the month, so I would try to finish the operation before then. So, when it appears that the margin calls are done, and the weak hands are almost all out, I will reverse my position and go long, hoping that after September ends, the share prices will normalize (rise) and if the physical demand season holds true, the share prices will rise dramatically as those that sold on weakness will be buying back at higher prices. I'll sell to them when RSI is high again. Should be a great trade to end the year with. Maybe I'll take my profits to the islands.

So; that's my trading tactic, what do you guys think?

(in case you couldn't figure this out, this is tongue in cheek. I am NOT trying to get others to do this with me, I am simply trying to open some peoples eyes to what MAY occur someday in your trading career. Repeat; I have never made this trade, I am not making this trade or trying to create collusion, besides this trade won't work anymore)

T'man-

The TSX Composite? Mining, oils and banks dominated? I think I have the major influencers covered and the Canadian banks would "pollute the view" so to speak. I also think TSX Composite is on the receiving end of the equation. JMHO.