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September 22, 2006
About my gold standard comment, Fri., Sept. 22, 2006, 2:23 PM
Earlier today I made a reference to "gold standard" and now it's time to explain.
The comment I made: "When all the govt gold is sold to private owners, then central bankers will have lost their ability to use the precious metal as a monetary policy and control instrument. At that point the world will have in effect a gold standard because any excess printing of paper money from that point will immediately be factored into lower market prices for that currency."
Then I received this letter:
"Bill, Your paragraph confuses me... if all gold is held by private owners, what prevents the government from continuing the printing of paper money? Unless you are predicting that the private owners will use their gold as the unit of exchange for goods and services? What about those who can't afford the $700.00 per ounce price tag to own this new standard? Are we just going to ignore the McDonalds and Wal-Mart workers? I would really like your thoughts on these rather simplistic questions. This is why I've sent it off line; please post your reply online, if it helps others understand. I've always considered paper money as an IOU (back by the faith in and strength of the government who distributes it) - nothing more. We have seen failures for sure (Germany after WW I for example); however, the USA nor Canada (I think) has ever reneged on its IOU, it may buy less, but in a world where the population is ever increasing and the resources finite, should we expect a different outcome?"
Govt will always print money (and need access to our capital markets to do so), and it will always need to do so as long as there is a budget deficit. I'm not opposed to deficits for a couple years as long as every couple years there are also surpluses, and that over the years there is a balance.
As to whether the private sector decides to use the gold it purchases for use as money, long-term speculation, or to be fabricated into jewellery or industrial parts, is really of no concern to me.
The gold standard is usually thought of as the backing of a nation's gold by hard money (ie, gold and silver). The premise there is that governments should have to balance their books, such that if they print more debt (money, bonds), they should have to hold unencumbered assets against the debt.
But that still puts control in the hands of government without proper checks and balances, and we've seen what has happened to balanced-budget legislation. I don't think govt will ever control itself via legislation as they always find a loophole. Therefore, I think a different solution is needed " even if I don't think we'll ever see it.
I happen to think a type of gold standard can work the other way. If government never owned metal other than to make coins, then they would be minimal players in the gold market, which, quite simply, is the best case we could hope for.
It should be up to the private sector to restrain the excessive printing of paper money by simply selling that money in exchange for the money of prudently managed countries (if they wanted it), or hold real assets, like gold or real property.
If those particular markets are run without interference or manipulation by govt, the price of hard assets would increase and the value of the govt's paper would go down in price if the money supply was growing at a faster pace than the economy (in real terms).
Unfortunately, govt and central bankers today are increasingly playing the gold market, the oil market, and the interest rate market, while hiding information on their purchases and sales as well as on the money supply, which is increasingly upsetting to private sector traders.
So, what I'm saying is that I'm all for free markets and full disclosure. We need that for a check and balance on government, just as controls are needed on us.
It would be best that central banks get out of our capital markets and let us (the owners and managers of capital) act as the effective control on government-driven inflation.
Central bankers ought to restrict their activities to interest rate and currency markets. Their trading of interest rates is essential to dampen our speculation at times, and their trading of currencies is essential to maintaining a stable forex market.
If central bankers were able to fulfil that mandate to our satisfaction, I think it would be appropriate to keep them outside the control of the Finance Ministers; but if not, the Treasury and Central Bank functions should be combined and then The People could vote for change as they see the need for it.
The bottom line to this discussion is that (i) our capital markets are not free from government and central bank interference, and they should be, and (ii) there is no requirement (national security or otherwise) for any government to hold gold, and hence they shouldn't.
I don't care to get into a debate on the gold standard per se, but on the need for checks and balances, which is something the gold standard proponents believe it to be. I'd rather fix the cause of the problem rather than bringing in solutions that address the symptoms.
I'd like to hear from others. I certainly don't have all the answers.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 22, 2006 02:23:13 PM | Category: Economics
Discourse
BG -
Misallocation of resources into granite countertops and cathedral ceilings isn't the worst of it. Soon, the largest sector of US employment will be healthcare = repairing the health impact of the US style of life, meaning lousy food and lazy living!
I can't imagine the politicians giving up its ability to manipulate the gold, bond, and stock markets. I think the best realistic goal is simply disclosure of government actions in these areas. It's harder for politicians to oppose a grassroots push for transparency ...
Posted by: Jock
at
September 22, 2006 3:28 PM [link]
Sooo, let me see if I got this right for the near term until all these issues are resolved about Bill‘s Gold Standard.
It's best to have something of real value, like a case of 10w-40 oil out in the garage (better get some now while it's on sale ;) instead of a debit card to try and purchase it later
How about cords of seasoned wood stacked up out on the west-40 and a fireplace to burn it in when winter comes, instead of writing a check for the ever escalating price of natural gas after you use it.
Having several pounds of ground beef in the freezer @$1.99# as opposed to the $8 or $10 BigMac next spring.
Better yet, going to the local money changer (not a bank, think of something like a pawn shop, just close your eyes and imagine a long haired sandaled guy outside on the steps of a temple ;) and exchanging a 1-oz Buffalo GOLD coin for $1,022.00 crisp new U$D's ( this amount is a WAG ;) so you can go to the mall.
Is this what were talking about?
Posted by: C.Note
at
September 22, 2006 4:00 PM [link]
You could have taken the easy way out and told whoever sent that letter that 1/10 oz or even smaller gold coins exist. Otherwise, silver coins work for even the smallest of transactions. Instead, you climbed into the gold standard. I admire your courage.
I see bimetallism as the best option; it's explicitly mentioned in the US Constitution, Art I, Sec. 10, Cl. 1. Yet, politicians know the potential votes to be gained from a welfare state – ‘bring home the bacon.' The support for government money is Big. Big banks don't fear runs with little capital reserves, which means big businesses can always find excess capital. Everybody's happy except for the constant inflation and periodic shifts in the entire US economy.
The worst, and likely thing to happen, is Americans will realize their purchasing power is shrinking and really do nothing. The game continues until people are really afraid, and leave the USD. Politicians, bankers, and managers will do their part to stem the tide.
Posted by: CashForFlow
at
September 22, 2006 4:38 PM [link]

Bill and Friends,
This article appears to address the current system - not a new system. The only material change that you are suggesting is that the government no longer hold precious metals and instead distribute those throughout the private sector via a market mechanism.
The significant change would be to create a level playing field for both sides and a credible threat against excessive money printing or leveraged speculation in metals. Either side would possess the tools to burn the other so similar to detente (military analogy) both sides would be forced to behave themselves.
Example - if the government chose to debase the currency by massive money printing, citizens would rush to get into real assets such as real property or commodities. Vice versa - if the citizens chose to over speculate in the precious metals, by managing a tight monetary policy and conservative budget low inflation rates could flush out the speculators within a relative short period of time as the economic return on paper assets would be much higher.
This approach contrasts with the current system where the Central Banks control both monetary policy and have a lock on a sizeable portion of the world's precious metals supply. Under this scenario there is no party to challenge them. As they over print paper currency they can send false signals into the currency and metals markets by selling massive quantities of gold and silver. The mechanism for the sales is completely NOT transparent so there is no way to even track what the hell they are up to. Thus, they can in the short to intermediate term inflate but curb a speculative metals market and negative market psychology by maintaining a vestige of legitimacy.
I read a great book a while back entitled "The Mechanics of Money" - it was written buy Jacques Riboud and translated to English from French. The author's book was unique in that it discussed how a system of money works - instead of defining what it is. The book was not reduced to describing one certain governmental or banking system but instead described in broader terms the different types of currency schemes and what the real purpose of money was.
I may be way off here but I have always taken money to have two main uses:
1) Efficient medium of exchange and
2) Store of Value
I have never considered it to be a healthy long term tool for use in manipulating the economy. Huge gains in net worth or monetary value thus, should not come from speculation, but instead from savings and investment, or true wealth creation by building a business.
Any other system where the currency is manipulated can result in a horrible misallocation of resources in the republic. I have had several arugments with close friends over the past months because I believe that a huge misallocation of economic resources has occurred over the past five years into the creation of housing in the USA.
Trillions that could have been invested in new biotech startups or advanced technologies have instead been squandered on granite countertops and swimming pools. Having a great place to live is tops, but I find it hard to believe personally that nicer houses create real wealth in our country over the long haul or that the average joe is entitled to that type of lodging. I fear that this huge misallocation of capital and energy may result in a 10-year readjustment cycle - which may never even be purged of the previous excesses, if the Fed continues to manipulate our money system and inflate their way out of another problem.
Sorry for dragging on - but I think it is best to address this one straight on.
Best regards,
BG
Posted by: Soulek1
at
September 22, 2006 2:53 PM [link]