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September 20, 2006
About Amaranth and the U.S. Constitution, Wed., Sept. 20, 2006, 7:39 AM
Today, "Peter" sent me direct mail that ought to be shared with all. As Peter shows and I explained yesterday, the problem at Amaranth affected more than Natural Gas markets.
"Hi Bill,I don't know if anyone mentioned it already, but it looks like there's a direct connection between Goldcorp's (negative) trading activity and
Amaranth:" The hedge fund reported having $2.3 billion invested in U.S. stocks as of the end of June. Several of Amaranth's big investments were Humana (HUM - news - Cramer's Take), Goldcorp (GG - news - Cramer's Take) and Sprint (S - news - Cramer's Take)."" The trader speculated that Amaranth may have been liquidating positions in some of its equity holdings to satifisy the margin calls from its prime broker."
Sorry if I'm pointing out the obvious.
Cheers,
Peter
Ps. This is rather timely. I just read Roger Lowenstein's "When Genius Failed" this past weekend. What an amazing story, it certainly helped me to make more sense of what's happened these past few days. I support you in your continued criticism of these crazy set-ups. Keep up the great work!"
Yes, I think all of us need to focus on what happened here. By all accounts, the Amaranth hedge fund was operated more professionally than the majority of hedge funds. The extreme profitability and rapid growth over many years speaks to that.
The issue is not with Amaranth, and my blog article clearly made the point that I find the prime brokers at fault. At the end of the day, I only hope that Congress fully investigates this matter. I suspect that the major broker-dealers were scrambling to protect themselves (and their profits and bonuses) and literally screwing their clients out of billions of dollars in the process as soon as they took note that Amaranth had lost control.
On his own, the Amaranth trader, Brian Hunter, did not make several billion dollars, and he did not lose it on his own. We need to hear about the whole story inside Amaranth.
The Amaranth clients are not to be faulted here either. They (wealthy individuals as well as financial institutions holding the capital of Mom & Pop) liked the profits in the Bull market, but could not under the rules of hedge funds quickly extract their capital. So, what could they do? Why blame them?
Let's focus directly on the role of prime brokers " the Humungous Bank & Broker that I speak of. This is precisely where the problem lies.
These are the people who control the Fed and the Treasury of the United States, and the capital market of the People, and who will continue to cause problems for We The People until the financial system is recognized as being broke and in desperate need of repair.
If only the U.S. financial system were like my desktop software where I simply hit the "Repair" button when I recognize that matters get out of my control.
I joke of course, but the sad point is that Congress, which has fewer than a thousand people who represent 300 million, have those "Repair" buttons. It's just a crying shame these elected representatives have become slaves to HB&B.
When situations like Long Term Capital Management and Amaranth arise, and nothing is done to protect the Little People who incredulously believe they are protected by the Constitution, I stop listening to the shills who pronounce the nation a democracy.
When connected people like Larry Kudlow have to continuously rant about something as basic as the existence and meaning of the Constitution, then maybe the People ought to consider that the Constitution is under attack.
In my Week In Review this weekend, I referred to the President's so-called "news" conference on Friday. I called it a joke. Something important happened that ought to dismay every American, and the matter is so crucial to the dilemma the U.S. faces today.
A reporter asked: "Mr. President, former Secretary of State Colin Powell says the world is beginning to doubt the moral basis of our fight against terrorism. If a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and former secretary of state feels this way, don't you think that Americans and the rest of the world are beginning to wonder whether you're following a flawed strategy?"
As I saw it at the time, that question spoke to the essential meaning of democracy, but here is how the President handled it.
"If there's any comparison between the compassion and decency of the American people and the terrorist tactics of extremists, it's flawed logic. It's just - I simply can't accept that. It's unacceptable to think that there's any kind of comparison between the behavior of the United States of America and the action of Islamic extremists who kill innocent women and children to achieve an objective."
Thinking people were shocked and dismayed the President could be so arrogant. They responded: Of course it's acceptable for American's to think that there's "any kind of comparison."
That's the heart of the problem today. Americans are told not to think but to follow a few people who will do their thinking for them. You know who you The People are, and you know who "they" are.
So is it "unacceptable to think" that maybe the U.S. financial system is broke, and that the HB&B, Fed and Treasury ought never be questioned?
Is that Un-American too?
Is it wrong to wonder how the U.S. Constitution's Article Two (Executive Power) seems to have become more important than Article One (Legislative Power)?
Maybe an expert in the U.S. Constitution can tell me how it is that Humungous Bank & Broker have gained so much control over the capital markets of the People.
As you know, I think about these things " even from Canada.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 20, 2006 07:39:16 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
Lobbyists are a bane to this country - as long as senators/congressmen get their election funds from private groups, there won't be any change in this country.
Why can't we publicly fund candidates and make private donations illegal??
Posted by: dave
at
September 20, 2006 8:41 AM [link]
A perfect society Dave, im all for it, but its up to you as a US citizen to make it happen.
Posted by: tgifbipo
at
September 20, 2006 8:47 AM [link]
I don't think apologies from the President are necessary. I merely point out that, as I see it, there is a process underway in America that segments society as being people who are either with the Administration or against them.
I posit that "right-thinking" people (ie, blind followers of the current Administration) may be oblivious to how that process might be harmful to your personal financial interests.
As long as we “think and vote� or “think and trade,� we'll be ok. Apologies, to us or from us, are not necessary.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 20, 2006 9:11 AM [link]
Publicly fund candidates? Ok, so your tax dollars go to candidates whom you do not support? Why as a free citizen can I not give money to someone whom I support. Obviously financial support should come with limits. But when you allow bureaucrats to decide the financing of elections it is even more dangerous than private sector contributions.
Posted by: Andrew
at
September 20, 2006 9:13 AM [link]
"On his own, the Amaranth trader, Brian Hunter, did not make several billion dollars, and he did not lose it on his own. We need to hear about the whole story inside Amaranth."
Has Amaranth any obligation to tell "the whole story"???? The fact they pay several million Dollars compensation to a guy which happend to have luck in the markets for 2 or 3 years and which work could be done easily by a hundred lots of people for a lot less than that amount, tells me an story of its own.
This is bullshit crazyness and i wonder what the hell the equity supplier of A.-Fund did think of, if they had ever think or only saw the $$$ of past returns.
Chance of making BIG returns are accompanied by BIG risks.
Posted by: Jansing
at
September 20, 2006 9:17 AM [link]
NY Times reported yesterday that AIG had exceeded political contribution limits by using multiple offshore entities with names that bore no resemblance to AIG (all ulitimately taking money from a single AIG account). It's quite amazing this was EVER discovered. The system is so entrenched, it would take a generation of thinking, dedicated. hard-working Americans to change it. Where are they? Not in my part of the country ...
Posted by: Jock
at
September 20, 2006 9:31 AM [link]
All is explained by the name of the fund: «Amaranth«, from Greek amarantos = unfading. Indeed unfading...
Posted by: tinman
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September 20, 2006 9:56 AM [link]
Jansing,
If your retirement/pension funds happened to be controlled by Brian Hunter, a 32-year old trader in Calgary Alberta who Trader Monthly magazine has listed with a personal income of between US$75 and $100 million, and who allegedly has caused the loss of maybe $4 billion, I think you expect Congress to demand answers, which is their right.
I hope you agree.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
September 20, 2006 10:19 AM [link]
The United States is not a Democracy. It is a Plutocracy. The U.S. Constitution was never about "democracy." It established a mechanism whereby white, educated, land-owning men were in charge of the country. Women and people of color were only given the vote much later, after long, bitter struggle.
Not enough people really understand what this means. We have a knee-jerk response to the word "democracy," which is why the spin-meisters use it so often.
Bush's response to the question above is very, very telling, and deserves to be carefully studied. This is the mindset of the ruling classes. Underestimate it at your peril.
Also, the U.S. Constitution has no bearing on the financial markets and their manipulation. The Federal Reserve Bank was established in 1913 by an act of Congress. Thus, it is our elected representatives (funded by corporate money) who designated themselves to guard the henhouse.
I recommend David Korten's excellent "When Corporations Rule the World" and his newly released "The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community" for those interested in understanding and working for change in the existing global economic playing fields.
Posted by: babycondor
at
September 20, 2006 10:28 AM [link]
Bill,
absolutly!
Sunlight on this!
Here in Germany we have a political discussion about a 30% payhike for the boss of Siemens (SIE:DE). Just for perspective^^
A loss of that magnitude would ripple the country here^^ Hedge Funds (as they exist in the US) are NOT allowed in Germany, and i think for some reason! And i am glad about this.
Posted by: Jansing
at
September 20, 2006 10:54 AM [link]
Hedge fund managers get paid enormously, which explains their behaviour. If you can collect between 20% and 60% of the profits on others people money, that is a huge incentive: For fraud, abuse and huge risks.
It's the perfect world for the chosen few: If a speculation pays off, you make millions in a minute. And if you screw up by misjudging the market (e.g nat gas) then you're perhaps fired. But it only gets better: You are employed at another fund where you can play again. That's what happened to Brian Hunter.
Posted by: tinman
at
September 20, 2006 11:20 AM [link]
Reported this morning is that Hunter, while making between $75 & $100 million last year, was ranked 29th on the list of highest-earning traders for 2005! Would be interesting to see what the other 28 made!
Posted by: bobj
at
September 20, 2006 12:18 PM [link]
Re Hunter:
the other top traders are not a secret. We know it due to the fact that 2 unfrighted senators investigated the immense oil/gas speculation. Bill commented on their report on Aug. 29 and made the link to it available. The list of the traders can be found on pages 30 and following.
The really sad thing about this report is that almost no major newspaper (and of course no TV stations) took it up and tried to educate the Little People. That's the sorry state of the public debate in the US.
Posted by: tinman
at
September 20, 2006 12:32 PM [link]
Bill,
I personally hope that Amaranth sinks into oblivion. Recall that it was they who took advantage of the rogue management situation at Stelco and manipulated the market in STE.a stock to acquire about 19.9% of the common shares ( 20% would have triggered the shareholder Rights Plan adopted by the board in 1998 ). They eventually unloaded their position before the stock went below a buck, and holders such as myself saw our equity wiped out because we believed there was justice in the system and regulators there to protect us.
Posted by: TerryC
at
September 20, 2006 1:05 PM [link]
re Hunter
As a commenter yesterday wrote, "Of course they (the big brokers" were trading against Amaranth." The only quesion is, were these brokers serving as Amaranth's brokers? Or maybe I am missing something about this "story behind the story."
My view is that Brian Hunter committed a number of trader sins. 1) He put far too much of his capital into one trade. 2) He had a huge position in an extremely illiquid market. Supposedly, he was overseen by a "risk management committee"? Lol, lol, and lol.
re BabyCondor & America
Hey I'm all for the Little People and all, but there are valid reasons why America is not a "democracy" -- though it is unfortunately increasingly becoming one. When people can vote to take money out of my pocket to put it into their's, that is the Tyranny of the Majority, a concept that used to be well understood and feared. You may call it 'Plutocracy' and put a class label on it, but society only works when the educated retain the reigns of power. The key, of course, is that there must be a level field for all, and then let 'evolutionary' forces do their work.
Posted by: Juker
at
September 20, 2006 1:10 PM [link]
Brian Hunter was nothing special, nor does he have anything to do whatsover with politics. He's just another trading gunslinger who has "blown up" in a spectacular fashion.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has been writing about guys like this and their "black swans" for years.
There is nothing new under the sun.
Posted by: Novalawyer
at
September 20, 2006 4:21 PM [link]
All right Juker, I'll take the bait:
"there are valid reasons why America is not a "democracy"
Excuse me?! Please enlighten me and mention one reason.
"When people can vote to take money out of my pocket to put it into their's..."
Am I to understand that you have issues with taxation?
"but society only works when the educated retain the reigns of power."
Wow, just wow!! The gall, the arrogance...I am impressed. I look forward to reading such "educated" commentary in the future.
Posted by: just_observing
at
September 21, 2006 1:28 AM [link]
just_observing:
Please observe that America is a Representative Democracy.
If you want to observe a pure democracy , observe Venezuela. Observe that there is no Bill of Rights there, no property rights, no contractual law that is respected. But yet someone was 'elected'.
They are experiencing the Tyranny of the Majority, but you don't know what that is.
Posted by: Juker
at
September 21, 2006 11:49 PM [link]
Hello All,
Here is a link to Keith Olberman of MNBC's Countdown Show and his thoughts on Pres. Bush's speech . He feels President Bush owes citizens an apology.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/#060918b
Posted by: tony
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September 20, 2006 8:37 AM [link]