The DOW is at 144.72! (On VERY low volume). Does anyone see this as a market top?

Possible. As I write the DJIA stands at +85...
IMHO, if the Market corrects, it will be after the American Mid-term elections. There is much at stake for both sides. And as Bill has correctly shown on a number of occasions: The Market can be propped, albeit only until sentiment(AKA emotions) kicks in.

Another reason I love your blog, Mr. Cara, is because you're such a good writer.

Your breath-taking experience is so...ALIVE.

rick s:

ya feels like a top, but I don't bet on these...
or on bottoms...

I would need to see either an:
(1) Intraday buying panic
(2) A breakdown back through a resistance line( around 11400 on dow) on HIGH volume
(3) Or best of all a breakout failure above a resistance line (around 11480 on dow) -
again on HIGH volume

this is just the way I trade - as I still find shorting difficult.

As for today's action - typical holiday action - let it run up - almost everything is up...

But as a spec trade with play money - ya it's gotta be a good risk/reward play...

good luck

tradesman

Market top? Picking tops and bottoms is a tough business. One thing is for sure: those bloggers and members of the old media that called for a Bear market have been wrong so far (very wrong). Hopefully, nobody tossed a bunch of Shorts on the market a couple months ago when the Bears were seeing doom & gloom.

The (SPY) is pushing past most Fib lines and cutting some new (positive) ground today. Obviously, the market could top here and drop below 10,000 (who can say), but the economic news so far has played well into the "bigs" on the Street and their view of the Fed. (Taming a Shrew?).

I think a lot of people got caught leaning the wrong way due to their own idealized version of where the market "should" go based on “possible� negative forces in the US. So far, it has been more benign than expected I think and maybe (maybe) there's a soft landing somewhere out there.

Or mid-term elections. ;-)

Is this a market top? Could be, but it could also be part of a base before the next move higher. Not that this makes much of a difference, but I have noticed that many Bears have gotten somewhat quiet in the past month or so.

Maybe they're waiting for the impending Recession that always follows a curve inversion (since WWII). Which ever way the market goes from here, I'm very glad I followed my charts and not my inner proclivity to listen to the doom all around me.

Of course, if the market craters, I can always hug onto the (QID) like an old teddy bear.

oratier,

You may be right about the election thing, and it is much easier to drive things up on such low volume.

At the very least, I would expect some profit taking next week.

tradesman, mousestar:

thanks for the posts

One other thing to note about today is that the $RUT (Russell) isn't really tagging along for the ride today. Precursor to a pullback next week? Locals running the show today? Hrmmm….

Mousefinger said "I'm very glad I followed my charts and not my inner proclivity to listen to the doom all around me."

Mousefinger... well said...

I think as traders we should all staple this one to our foreheads.

tradesman