In preparing for Week In Review #25 eight weeks ago (week ending June 24), I jotted a note to myself, which reads: "One more attempt by Fed to liquefy small banks before the final squeeze >> lead to Bear >> recession >> after election".

I think I had it right then, which leads me to a conclusion I reached this weekend: the U.S. equity market is not yet ready to take a dive, but is likely to make one more significant attempt like in mid-June and again in mid-July to surpass the Dow = 11667 and S&P 500 = 1327 highs that followed immediately after the May 10 FOMC meeting.

This time, new 2006 cycle highs are likely to be set, but they will not be close to those that were reached in the Bubble market of 2000.

How high can the U.S. equity market go is a matter of conjecture, but an objective trend and cycles analyst must admit that, although weakening, the trend line is still up and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) technical indicators for the Monthly and Weekly price series of the major indexes still have some upside here.

The character of the market has shifted from being one of typical sector rotation to being a stock picker's market. As the economy transitions from high to slow growth, some companies are simply better positioned, perhaps by product line suitability or inventory level or whatever.

And at a time where traders' emotions are heightened, some companies are running afoul of the regulators or shareholders for (i) matters involving management options records back-dating, (ii) pushing the envelope re application of accounting principles, (iii) executive compensation, and so forth.

At the same time, traders seem to be seeking to place excess money in stocks of (i) conservative, high-dividend companies, (ii) companies that cater to the upscale consumer for whom spending is not a problem, (iii) companies like the U.S. high-tech sector that had been beaten down to RSI's in the 20's for Weekly and Daily price series data, and (iv) "special situation" equities whose growth stories sound good, regardless of economic environment.

Inflation is definitely a factor on the minds of portfolio managers " not just U.S. inflation, but inflation in the emerging economies versus the U.S.

With respect to the latter, it is my understanding that inflation in the emerging world is rising rapidly and interest rates are starting to chase it. Traders accordingly are applying higher discount rates to cash flow, which serves to ratchet down acceptable PE multiples. At some point, traders start scratching their heads and asking why they are not investing more funds back in the U.S., in companies that still enjoy double-digit revenue and profit growth, but with relatively low PE's and no country risk premium.

I think if offshore money managers (Bermuda, Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Channel Islands, Hong Kong) were polled " since these are the traders who typically hold a bigger percentage of assets in the emerging world " you'd see that the U.S. is becoming a popular destination for equity capital these days.

The Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary are, I'm sure, pushing that notion.

In my review on Bonds this week, I'll present some eye-opening evidence as to how this equity market is being cranked higher by the Fed, which, I figure; a year from now really won't matter. At the end of the day, it's going to be the same result as the last Bear " lower equity price levels than exist today.

From what I can see happened in markets this week, however, the combined Fed and Big Money traders have managed to extend the Bull through into another intermediate-term (i.e., Weekly price series data) debt and equity market cycle.

If you overlay the TLT chart with the S&P 500 index chart over the past 3 years you will see the same thing. Behind every move there is a push by the Fed. I say that because, without a timely push, bond markets don't move so far, so fast. But ultimately I think the Fed chairman knows today that a real Funds rate (not a nominal rate but the real rate) of 3 pct isn't going to defeat the U.S. inflation problem.

History shows that the "real" Funds rate must go to at least 4 pct and, possibly like 2000, to 5 pct to do that.

Inflation is therefore not going away any time soon (thanks to Greenspan), and Bernanke is trying to ease into the Bear phase slowly by periodically goosing the bond market, and trying to help those mortgage lenders in turn help the home-owners who need to refinance their mortgages. Ultimately, though, interest rates must rise, which will trigger enough problems in the housing market to start a recession in the U.S. I think it's inevitable.

So, this week I'm going to show you one chart to watch as an indicator for why I believe the equity market will sooner or later fall out of bed. It has to do with interest rates and inflation.

But that's the longer view.

After what I observed this week in the rate market, at the Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday openings, and the manner in which traders bought back the equity market Friday morning after watching a topping action on Thursday afternoon, I had to acknowledge that the technical indicators for equities are still pointing north, and traders want to buy this market higher in the short-run.

So this week is a tough call: there is the long-term and the short-term outlook, and they differ.

I now think there is still short-term upside to equities, which means you avoid put buys and call writes and you let you long stock positions and put writes extend, perhaps for a couple months, perhaps for several weeks. Then, for the broad market, after the Weekly RSI 7 crosses the 70 level, you switch to watching the Daily RSI 7, and when that RSI 7 starts to fall to a point it crosses the Daily RSI 14, you look to close the put writes, sell the calls, and consider either selling your long stock positions or writing covered calls (on the ones you want or need to keep).

Finally, I'm going to show in this WIR how the Fed, despite a falling dollar, has jammed the gold market. Trust me I am nowhere close to giving up on gold. But you'll read all that in the Gold section.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: This week was one where international markets tried to keep up to the Fed. Japan (EWJ) managed to do it, rallying +4.3 pct W/W. India was even stronger.

U.S. Equities : The complexion of the U.S. market changed totally at the open on Monday morning. My how the new Treasury Secretary must have called in his Wall Street chips! The Nasdaq Composite was up +5.2 pct, the Russell 2000 (small caps) up +4.8 pct, and the S&P 500 up +2.8 pct while the Dow 30 was up +2.6 pct W/W.

Dow 30 : There were just 3 Dow stocks that were down W/W (MRK on an unfavorable judge's ruling late in the week, XOM on crashing oil prices from earlier in the week, and WMT with six Presidential candidates preparing "Anybody but Wal-Mart" placards for their campaign. Five Dow stocks (HPQ, IBM, INTC, MSFT and HON) were up more than +5.3 pct W/W each, which reflects the story of the week ("Tech" to lead us to the riches we deserve").

U.S. Sector ETFs: Only 1 of the 10 ETF's I track was down this week, and it (XLE) was top dog (#1) just a week ago. My how a turnabout story on the BP Alaska pipeline, and a cessation of an Israeli-Lebanon war, can send oil prices cratering $4.00! So, just as traders were going to chuck their stocks, the timing of the rally was impeccable. Sector performer #10 last week (XLI) was performer #2 this week, while performer #9 a week ago (SMH) jumped all the way to #1. Isn't it amazing how these things turn right around on their own? Not!

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (-1.2 pct); A 72 price for crude works like magic
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #4 (+3.0 pct); It sure wasn't the metals
20: Industrials (XLI): #2 (+4.2 pct); Major league comeback
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #3 (+3.3 pct); Upscale still works
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+1.4 pct); Lagged the crowd
35: Healthcare (IYH): #6 (+2.4 pct); Trying to keep up despite a judge
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #5 (+2.9 pct); Stronger bonds; stronger banks
45: Tech (SMH chips): #1 (+8.2 pct); Week ago Fri. was -3.5 pct loser!
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #9 (+1.0 pct); Laggards in spite of bonds
55: Utilities (XLU): #8 (+1.4 pct); Laggards in spite of bonds

Bonds: Except for a week ago Friday, the interest sensitive market has had a pretty good month. Some people are saying that the economy is slowing, and inflation is no longer a problem. Well, one out of two can't be all bad.

Commodities: $CRB was down -3.5 pct W/W because oil and metals were quite soft, consistent with a global economy softening. Down but not out.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were down -5.1 pct this week. Short-term traders, don't blame me if you missed it. A week ago I wrote in this space: "I feel there will soon be downside surprises in the oil market."

Gold: $GOLD dropped -2.7 pct W/W to 614.10. I remain positive on gold because all the precious metals are trading above the 40-week Moving Average, and all but $GOLD are above the 50-day MA. Even though the $USD fell this week, somebody managed to push down $GOLD despite $SILVER and $PALL being up. I wonder who might have done that nasty selling of the yellow metal? Selling did not come from China or India or Russia. Like smart traders, those people buy on the dips.

Goldminers: The goldminers were trashed a week ago Friday, as GDX in the U.S. dropped -2.5 pct and XGD (Toronto) dropped -2.7 pct that day after having a fair week. This week, things were down, but not by much actually. GDX was down just -0.8 pct and XGD dropped only -1.1 pct on the week, which nowhere closely reflects the loss of $17.33 (-2.74 pct) for $GOLD. Let's see what Monday brings.

Forex: I remain a Dollar Bear and $USD had a bearish week. $USD dropped -0.5 pct W/W as the Euro (priced in Dollars) climbed +0.8 pct and the Yen (also priced in USD) gained +0.4 pct. Didn't show up in my gold account, but that's life; for now.

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Sector ETF:

Nine of ten sector ETF's were up. Last week's two biggest losers (Industrials and Semi-conductors) were this week's biggest winners. And that's the way this market has been gyrating. It's enough to stymie anyone.

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	33.15	0.17	0.52%	8.23%	5.98%	13.61%	-12.58%	-4.44%	-12.51%	-8.58%
XLI	32.53	-0.08	-0.25%	4.16%	1.47%	2.62%	2.85%	-4.13%	-0.03%	8.69%
XLY	33.09	-0.01	-0.03%	3.31%	1.91%	5.58%	0.27%	-1.08%	-1.58%	-2.79%
XLB	31.68	0.00	0.00%	2.99%	1.64%	5.42%	2.46%	-1.37%	0.09%	12.98%
XLF	33.54	0.05	0.15%	2.85%	0.87%	3.90%	4.16%	3.42%	3.42%	12.93%
IYH	63.85	-0.03	-0.05%	2.36%	1.48%	4.23%	0.35%	5.92%	-1.53%	2.16%
XLP	25.19	0.15	0.60%	1.41%	1.82%	3.07%	7.47%	6.74%	6.60%	8.53%
XLU	34.34	0.38	1.12%	1.39%	0.79%	2.63%	7.31%	11.39%	6.32%	9.19%
IYZ	26.30	0.03	0.11%	1.04%	0.15%	6.35%	14.50%	7.08%	3.91%	10.27%
XLE	57.48	0.88	1.55%	-1.15%	-0.62%	5.51%	9.07%	7.10%	8.43%	21.34%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE was down -1.15 pct to 57.48. Not much, but enough to put XLE into #10 spot performance wise on the week.

A week ago I wrote: "This week, XLE was up +0.54 pct W/W. Not much, but enough to put XLE into #1 spot performance wise on the week.

From #7 to #1 to #7 to #1 to #10. XLE has been on quite a ride. Does anybody have a clue?

In thinking of the weakness in XLE and $WTIC this week, I have to wonder what happened to the BP Alaska pipeline problem, or hurricanes, or Nigerian rebels, or the possibility of more strife in the Middle East?

Did all the problems disappear after the economic slowdown story appeared?

Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TOT	68.34	0.41	0.60%	1.56%	1.33%	7.64%	-47.46%	-48.42%	-47.15%	-45.68%
CVX	67.26	1.11	1.68%	-0.87%	2.44%	4.36%	13.85%	14.58%	17.65%	13.08%
XOM	69.10	1.02	1.50%	-0.90%	0.60%	8.09%	18.18%	15.38%	14.12%	18.91%
ECA	53.21	-0.19	-0.36%	-1.21%	-0.52%	12.16%	13.94%	18.22%	23.77%	28.99%
IMO	38.50	-0.35	-0.90%	-1.69%	1.42%	8.73%	-62.98%	-62.65%	-60.80%	-56.98%
PBR	92.57	0.79	0.86%	-1.79%	-1.16%	9.39%	23.89%	1.61%	1.49%	62.72%
CEO	88.10	-0.23	-0.26%	-2.11%	2.43%	7.23%	27.33%	15.22%	6.92%	25.93%
STO	27.66	0.63	2.33%	-3.05%	-5.66%	-1.43%	14.63%	-0.75%	8.22%	23.54%
SU	79.30	0.51	0.65%	-5.70%	-4.06%	1.74%	21.01%	3.85%	6.74%	48.03%

Yes, some of these tables include data that has not been adjusted for stock splits, which is something I acknowledged a few times now. Unfortunately, the data is not mine. I have tried to have corrections made.

As to the major oils I follow, this week was quite negative because $WTIC dropped almost $4.00 (-5.12 pct). Only Total (TOT) gained, but TOT is not a relative out-performer.

Funny how Suncor (SU) was up +5.3 pct over the prior two weeks, and down -5.7 pct this week.

This is a nervous market because the RSI divergences are screaming out for traders to take caution. For an example of an RSI divergence, look at the SU chart following the Monthly RSI 7 that hit 90 in Sept-2006 at a stock price of about 60. After that the stock increased almost +50 pct in price, but the Monthly RSI's have had a series of lower peaks.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

The Canadian oils, including Suncor, fell in price along with the others. That had a negative bearing on the performance of the Toronto index.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) gained +2.99 pct W/W, but was flat on Friday.

Two weeks ago I wrote: "The Basic Materials (XLB) sector is not out of the woods just because precious metals have been rallying. I'd like you to go to the Daily data chart and look at the RSI since mid-July. What I do when I see a chart like that is run a trend support line under the RSI. I'll stay long only as long as that trend line hasn't been violated on the down side." Last week I added: "I thought I'd introduce this point here (in a Bear market where I want to be long the rallies) because I think it's an effective alternative to placing stops. I use it for all kinds of price series."

I struck the words "since mid-July" because what I should have written was "since the May RSI cycle low".

The chart will show that the Monday low in the Daily RSI 7 was right on the rising RSI 7 trend line, but did not violate that support. Instead (by turning to the Hourly data chart), you'll see that XLB took off like a rocket (similar to other ETF's) on Tuesday at the open, and moved from a Monday low of 30.66 to close Wed. at 31.88 (+4.0 pct).

Day traders are watching markets this closely, but the same principles apply to long-term traders who simply use longer time horizon charts " like the M-W-D rather than the Daily-Hourly-5 or 10 min charts.

Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NUE	51.58	0.80	1.58%	5.76%	0.70%	6.46%	48.73%	-1.56%	25.13%	87.43%
BHP	42.81	0.25	0.59%	4.24%	0.42%	3.01%	22.31%	-0.83%	17.93%	40.78%
PKX	61.09	0.70	1.16%	3.02%	0.44%	3.52%	21.57%	-8.55%	9.81%	19.88%
RTP	207.18	0.14	0.07%	2.17%	-1.99%	6.48%	9.73%	-0.91%	4.73%	46.28%
ACH	66.49	0.59	0.90%	1.06%	2.53%	-2.79%	-16.26%	-20.56%	-29.23%	12.58%
RIO	22.56	-0.04	-0.18%	0.67%	-6.20%	5.08%	4.93%	-5.53%	-4.49%	35.41%
AA	28.43	-0.08	-0.28%	0.57%	-3.86%	-3.82%	-4.92%	-9.20%	-6.42%	1.28%
GGB	15.44	-0.16	-1.03%	0.39%	-2.09%	8.05%	-11.32%	5.90%	-29.88%	29.31%
PD	90.03	0.02	0.02%	-0.32%	4.24%	16.62%	20.57%	4.87%	24.13%	70.35%
N	77.30	0.21	0.27%	-2.41%	-2.62%	8.49%	78.65%	23.09%	53.10%	87.44%

The Inco (N) situation is probably over and the winner is likely Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), a great Brazilian miner that is in the Cara 100. So the N dropped a lot this week. Shareholders will now accept the offer, and Canada loses another major miner, like Falconbridge, which means of course the Toronto Exchange becomes somewhat redundant and the Toronto mining finance community will likely revert in time to London, where it used to be.

This is all short-term thinking of course " driven by Canada's major banks. Their executive managers and directors are merely facilitating a process of turning Toronto into a second class player in global capital markets, so that they can then say to govt in Ottawa they need to merge with a foreign giant bank.

Of course, that means being taken over, where the head offices also depart the country, and those executive officers and directors all retire to Bermuda and Palm Beach with their suitcases loaded with tens of millions.

The Canadian government is so stupid they miss what's really going on in the country. In sending "peacekeepers" to solve the ages-old cultural problems of other countries and giving taxpayer money away to foreign-controlled Ford and General Motors, what they are missing in the short-term is the realization that control over the long-term economic health of the nation is being sold to these foreigners.

Russia has stopped doing this. So too did the Americans put a stop to foreign take-overs of the ports, and CNOOC purchase of a major U.S. oil company.

I ask government: What's wrong with solving the problems at home first?

But, I'm not complaining. After all, I'm part of the group who has decided to live the rest of my life in a manner not too different from other Canadians who are selling out.

And the problem, as readers are constantly pointing out, is not unique to Canada. It happened in Great Britain where the term "ex-pat" originated. And it will happen in all "free" countries where taxation is based on domicile and not birth, where govt spends without restraint money they don't have and as a consequence has to put their agents in our faces, all day every day.

Americans will note the reference to "free".

Btw, steelmaker Nucor (NUE) and base metals miner BHP (BHP) had great weeks making it a fair 4 weeks for those Cara 100 stocks.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was up sharply this week by +4.16 pct to 32.53. A week ago is was down sharply -2.59 pct.

This is one of the reasons I started thinking that the Fed stepped into the market, dropping bond yields, printing money, dropping the $USD, this week. They don't want the U.S. economy to suffer a hard landing, so they are likely doing what they can do to shore up a sagging equity market.

Short-term gain; long-term pain. The market is ultimately going to do what it is going to do.

Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	35.97	0.22	0.62%	6.33%	5.70%	5.48%	-8.38%	3.07%	-7.53%	2.33%
HON	39.45	0.33	0.84%	5.31%	3.35%	8.95%	5.31%	-4.73%	-6.47%	3.43%
GE	34.00	0.08	0.24%	4.62%	3.66%	5.43%	-3.87%	-0.44%	1.16%	0.03%
MMM	71.21	0.01	0.01%	3.91%	2.53%	0.69%	-9.99%	-15.38%	-3.47%	-0.99%
CBE	86.77	-0.07	-0.08%	3.85%	-0.72%	3.30%	17.45%	-0.58%	4.90%	39.43%
TYC	26.42	-0.24	-0.90%	3.57%	3.00%	4.72%	-10.86%	-1.82%	2.21%	-6.01%
UTX	61.84	-0.11	-0.18%	2.81%	-1.17%	3.15%	9.39%	-1.31%	6.62%	20.08%
BA	77.62	-0.97	-1.23%	2.19%	-2.35%	-1.85%	10.35%	-6.18%	6.39%	16.49%
CAT	68.31	-1.05	-1.51%	1.91%	-6.53%	-0.06%	18.18%	-8.46%	-5.19%	28.52%

The huge U.S. industrial conglomerates " GE, 3M and Honeywell " all enjoyed the price rally with gains of +4.6 pct, +3.9 pct and +5.3 pct respectively. You won't see too many weeks like that, especially in a so-called Bear market.

That's another reason why I have to re-assess my market posture as of Tuesday through Friday's action. None of these three important U.S. stocks got to an RSI 7 of 30 on the Monthly price series before bouncing higher this week. But they jumped up an average of +4.6 pct from Monday morning's open, and they could run another +10 pct in this intermediate-term cycle, which is too much to miss.

Longer-term oriented traders who cannot afford the time to watch markets by the hour or day will use trailing stops.

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General Electric (GE):

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3M Co (MMM):

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Honeywell (HON):

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +3.31 pct W/W, taking this ETF from #7 to #3 of 10 ETFs I follow.

A week ago in this place, I noted that the Administration is not recognizing the plight of the consumer. I see they called the most important advisors in this sector to a major sit-down with the President in Washington last week. Amazing how fast the improvements came.

But can it last? The bond market can only be pumped so far you know.

Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	27.25	-0.42	-1.52%	12.60%	12.60%	11.32%	-38.71%	-8.06%	-34.04%	-31.76%
CCL	39.88	0.10	0.25%	6.09%	3.58%	0.78%	-26.92%	-1.63%	-25.53%	-21.70%
JCP	68.15	-0.48	-0.70%	4.52%	6.37%	9.83%	20.73%	8.64%	19.06%	33.71%
WHR	79.38	-0.25	-0.31%	4.36%	0.20%	4.74%	-3.98%	-6.31%	-11.01%	-0.15%
SBUX	31.12	-0.17	-0.54%	4.08%	1.67%	-7.90%	0.81%	-13.51%	-12.07%	21.66%
TM	111.75	-0.62	-0.55%	3.98%	3.34%	13.13%	4.59%	1.04%	2.96%	40.35%
BC	29.98	-0.19	-0.63%	1.73%	-0.56%	7.73%	-26.56%	-17.32%	-24.01%	-31.40%
DIS	29.91	0.01	0.03%	1.63%	0.03%	5.06%	22.58%	1.05%	11.15%	14.69%
NKE	76.71	-0.25	-0.32%	0.26%	-2.49%	-4.18%	-10.75%	-3.81%	-9.65%	-4.99%

I continue to be basically negative on consumer cyclicals, but this is where the put writes are very effective. If the stock is not quite down to the price you'd like to use for accumulation, you could have written puts after the recent wave of selling.

I have mentioned Carnival Cruise Line (CCL), JC Penny (JCP) and Ebay (EBAY), as Cara 100 companies whose stocks I happen to like in this space, but think that other than maybe a short trade, they are a little early. This week the stocks were up +6.1 pct, +4.5 pct and +12.6 pct respectively.

Well, CCL and EBAY got down to RSI's on the M-W-D under 30 and JCP was turning in solid growth metrics. So if you didn't want to buy stock (and I didn't), you could have been writing short-term (2 month) put options in the past several weeks, and those gains (on the buy-back) would be significant today.

If you are building long-term positions in these companies, those premiums you earn will reduce your cost base, which lowers your risk and increases your percentage gain when you later decide to distribute/sell out.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

This week the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained +1.41 pct W/W to close at 25.19. The sector lagged the broad market, and was performer #7 of 10 in my list.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WFMI	53.95	-1.30	-2.35%	13.89%	5.31%	-5.50%	-30.03%	-19.14%	-15.17%	-17.48%
ABV	43.78	0.13	0.30%	7.09%	6.03%	10.70%	13.60%	1.86%	0.71%	36.81%
MO	83.97	3.22	3.99%	3.87%	5.09%	5.40%	11.99%	19.14%	15.23%	19.29%
DEO	71.60	0.01	0.01%	1.52%	1.76%	6.66%	20.21%	8.22%	16.14%	24.80%
KO	44.31	0.13	0.29%	1.26%	1.05%	0.93%	8.34%	1.75%	6.03%	1.79%
BUD	48.80	-0.02	-0.04%	1.24%	2.26%	4.25%	11.75%	5.65%	17.59%	9.34%
WAG	48.65	-0.99	-1.99%	0.48%	0.08%	4.51%	7.18%	20.51%	5.97%	2.66%
PG	60.39	0.05	0.08%	0.22%	1.58%	7.70%	2.74%	10.02%	-1.00%	11.46%
WMT	44.53	-0.10	-0.22%	-0.36%	-0.76%	1.85%	-3.68%	-5.70%	-3.72%	-5.74%
PEP	63.01	0.35	0.56%	-0.51%	-0.25%	0.40%	5.44%	7.36%	6.94%	15.45%

Procter & Gamble (PG) did not zip this week like last, but Altria (MO) was up +3.9 pct as the PR machine started the hype about the food side of the business being sold off. That's the thing about rumors; you never know who start them or what these people really know or what their motive is.

Whole Foods Markets (WFMI) jumped +13.9 pct W/W even though it sold down -2.4 pct on Friday (after Daily RSI 7 hit 70 btw).

Recently WFMI RSI 7 went well below 30 for both the Weekly and Daily price series. The Monthly RSI 7 was on the borderline, and several readers wrote to ask for an opinion.

Unfortunately, there is only so much I can do in this blog. I think the principles underlying the approach to trading I take are unquestionably solid. There are nuances, and it's up to readers to learn them and to apply them to your own research and resources. I wish I could do more, but I can't, which is why I am in the process of forming a Virtual Investor Club of readers who have the time as a large group to flesh out all these situations.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +2.36 pct W/W to close at 63.85, which was about level with the move in the broad market, and the ETF performed as #6 of 10 this week.

Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMY	21.64	0.16	0.74%	6.92%	-4.88%	-15.17%	-6.88%	-10.39%	-6.24%	-13.02%
PFE	27.05	0.05	0.19%	4.76%	4.12%	13.51%	13.75%	13.23%	4.76%	4.68%
UNH	49.50	0.46	0.94%	4.06%	1.94%	-1.00%	-19.81%	9.27%	-14.66%	-3.51%
AET	36.59	0.39	1.08%	3.33%	10.31%	-6.20%	-22.20%	-9.23%	-27.73%	-5.72%
NVS	57.22	0.21	0.37%	3.19%	1.96%	3.57%	7.01%	0.72%	4.65%	16.68%
DNA	82.03	-0.29	-0.35%	3.10%	1.56%	5.26%	-12.73%	8.03%	-2.64%	-6.49%
JNJ	64.42	0.19	0.30%	1.50%	1.40%	4.36%	4.53%	7.12%	9.06%	0.26%
AMGN	67.31	0.39	0.58%	1.37%	-2.15%	1.75%	-16.24%	0.31%	-10.12%	-15.41%
BMET	33.05	-0.05	-0.15%	-0.54%	-1.58%	7.97%	-10.39%	-7.22%	-10.96%	-13.39%
GSK	54.44	-0.43	-0.78%	-1.09%	-0.38%	-1.64%	6.83%	-3.83%	6.27%	12.74%

Aetna had yet another real solid week since I supported the stock at the bottom of the cycle Aug 1 when I wrote it up while trading at $31.03.

This week AET jumped a further +3.33 pct to close at $36.59. Not a bad 18 days (14 sessions) in the market. The stock is up +18.5 pct.

Gee if only I could do +1 pct a day forever. :-)

Some day maybe; but not in this lifetime.

And look what happened after the trashing Bristol-Myers took " including somebody named Cramer giving the raspberry to their CEO.

"The Worst", says Cramer. "The stock would jump 5 pct after he resigns."

Did he resign? BMY was up +6.92 pct this week.

Cara 100 BMY may soon become Cara 250 BMY however. Three bad years in a row doesn't cut it as a superior quality company.

I'm just too busy to watch over my own list, though, which is a situation I hope to change soon.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) gained a lot this week, which they always seem to do when the hand of the Fed seems to loom over markets.

The BIG loss of a week ago (-1.92 pct) was more than made back this week, as XLF jumped +2.85 pct W/W to close at 33.54.

With the Fed's help, I guess it goes higher.

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Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UBS	57.17	-0.60	-1.04%	8.13%	6.09%	12.05%	15.85%	1.69%	7.02%	38.93%
CSR	56.18	0.19	0.34%	5.01%	3.41%	9.92%	5.30%	-2.94%	1.19%	32.16%
MER	76.27	0.37	0.49%	4.87%	5.08%	9.00%	11.41%	8.05%	0.94%	31.57%
DB	112.90	0.35	0.31%	4.50%	0.45%	4.31%	13.51%	-1.26%	3.65%	32.51%
LEH	66.95	-0.15	-0.22%	4.19%	-0.89%	10.83%	3.10%	1.12%	-8.96%	27.67%
JPM	45.71	0.25	0.55%	4.05%	1.31%	5.93%	13.73%	6.95%	12.09%	31.88%
MS	67.14	-0.43	-0.64%	2.72%	-0.81%	7.41%	14.87%	12.16%	10.41%	0.00%
GS	154.68	0.23	0.15%	2.36%	1.10%	8.90%	20.03%	5.20%	6.28%	39.54%
C	48.60	0.03	0.06%	2.02%	0.21%	3.56%	-1.40%	-0.27%	5.10%	9.93%
HBC	90.39	0.03	0.03%	0.33%	-0.25%	2.94%	10.66%	1.68%	8.28%	11.18%

All the Humungous Bank & Broker components that lost big a week ago made it back bigger this week.

I don't know what happened to HBC this week.

A week ago I wrote about Morgan Stanley. MS was up +2.7 pct this week, taking it to +10.4 pct for the past 6 months versus +6.3 pct for Goldman Sachs (GS).

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor industry ETF (SMH) seems not to know where it's going from week to week. From first to last and back again.

SMH jumped up +8.23 pct this week to close at 33.15. That's quite a year for people like the Bond King.

But talk about volatility, the previous Friday, SMH crashed -3.50 pct. So who really knows other than maybe those who are covering their shorts.

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Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QCOM	37.32	0.12	0.32%	12.04%	5.69%	8.36%	-15.18%	-19.48%	-22.75%	-6.54%
SNDK	51.17	-0.17	-0.33%	11.65%	7.41%	36.42%	-24.42%	-16.95%	-10.84%	40.27%
SAP	47.56	-0.17	-0.36%	7.89%	4.67%	9.16%	3.50%	-8.15%	-6.40%	13.08%
CTSH	70.82	0.60	0.85%	7.79%	3.58%	16.00%	39.71%	10.73%	28.20%	55.27%
ADSK	34.61	-0.38	-1.09%	7.05%	3.90%	14.95%	-19.04%	-8.95%	-5.07%	-9.75%
ADBE	34.07	0.06	0.18%	6.97%	7.41%	23.22%	-11.55%	12.93%	-9.87%	28.08%
CSCO	20.86	0.01	0.05%	6.76%	21.00%	19.47%	19.54%	2.81%	5.04%	18.12%
INTC	18.39	-0.16	-0.86%	5.63%	5.15%	7.23%	-28.08%	-1.39%	-10.77%	-28.94%
INFY	43.81	0.29	0.67%	5.62%	5.44%	14.75%	-45.54%	-39.25%	-37.70%	-37.56%
ORCL	15.71	-0.10	-0.63%	4.80%	7.46%	3.90%	24.68%	14.09%	26.69%	20.02%

A week ago I wrote: "Cisco (CSCO) had a stunning week, up +13.3 pct to close at $19.54. Aren't you glad on Wednesday morning at 8:29am I started up the Cisco train with a call to get everybody focused? The stock was $17.30 at the time, which makes the three-day gain (in a dreadful tech market to boot) over +12.9 pct."

This week CSCO was up again +6.76 pct to close at $20.86, which makes it an 8-session gain of +20.6 pct. Put writes would have gained nicely.

A week ago I wrote: "You see, I may call this a Bear market, but it doesn't mean I won't buy stocks long. In a Bear, you must be thinking of the short-term rallies if you are going to take the extra risk of going long; Bear markets are where you BUY, HOLD and LOSE " unless time doesn't mean much to you."

This week I'm changing my tune a little. I'm saying that this year is looking like it could be an extended Bull. The operative words are "could be".

If true, then the only bad thing for my approach is that if I went long, I was probably selling too soon. And if I wrote puts, I would have done better percent wise in buying calls.

But one never knows how market prices are going to go. It's not our casino. We don't get to mark the cards, alter the mechanics, take a peek at the players' hands, and if all else fails, change the house's loan rules.

It pains me to laugh.

But as the lawyers (who have it just as good as the bankers) like to say: "It might not be perfect; but it's what we have, and it's the best in the world." Hmmm.

Qualcomm (QCOM), another Cara 100, was up +12.0 pct this week. QCOM is another case in point where the M-W-D RSI 7 worked out. The RSI 7 on the monthly just nudged 30, but in cases like this where there has been a fall from grace like the 2000 market bubble, sometimes it pays to substitute the shorter Bi-Weekly prices series data for the Monthly.

Just a thought.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up +1.04 pct W/W to close at 26.30, which is not much of a gain considering the other sectors move ahead quickly.

So IYZ dropped to performer #9 of 10 this week.

Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) closed up +1.39 pct W/W to close at 34.34, which is another broad market laggard.

Bonds were up this week, which helped the XLU (and the IYZ), but the "hot" money was chasing the tech stocks, including the SMH ETF.

Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bonds:

On June 28 the Treasury yields were as follows:

5.28 pct on 30-year
5.24 pct on 10-year
5.23 pct on 5-year
5.28 pct on 2-year
4.85 pct on 3-month

Today those yields are:

4.97 pct on 30-year (-31 bp)
4.83 pct on 10-year (-41 bp)
4.78 pct on 5-year (-45 bp)
4.87 pct on 2-year (-41 bp)
4.95 pct on 3-month (+10 bp)

Without the current week's yields added, here are key charts to watch for how and when the U.S. equity market Bull phase is brought to a conclusion with finality.

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For Week 8/18/2006, please add 4.95 (3-mo), 4.87 (2-yr), 4.80 (3-yr), 4.78 (5-yr), 4.83 (10-yr), 4.97 (30-yr).

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That is a major drop from the line in blue for Aug-11-06. So the question now is whether or not you believe the Fed is going to terminate the inflation issue by pumping money into the bond market. You find the answer to that in the charts below.

The first chart is the Fed Funds Rate vs Core PCE Deflator (which is a measure of inflation like the CPI data). You'll see that Greenspan collapsed the Fed Funds Rate right at January 2001 in an effort to halt the Bear market slide. That strategy didn't work " they never do.

Instead, precious metal and oil prices started to rally, and inflation remained a concern. From April 2004 (the month I started to blog), inflation has been a problem even though the authorities and Wall Street refused to acknowledge it as such. The following month the Fed Funds Rate started a series of 17 straight 25-basis point increases until the meeting earlier this month, which paused.

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Inflation has not died despite all these Fed hikes, but the stock market might because slowing economic growth surely means weaker corporate profits. So what is Bernanke going to do?

This chart shows that Real Fed Funds had to hit 5.0 pct during 2000 in order to move the Core PCE Deflator Y/Y rate from 2.0 to a comfortable 1.5. And that move killed the equity market.

So what's poor Bernanke to do today? The Real Fed Funds rate is just over 3.0 pct but the Core PCE Deflator Y/Y rate is now up to a very uncomfortable 2.4 pct. Shame on Greenspan.

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The point to all this is that a recession is being engineered to slow inflation because monetary policy of the Fed has failed, and is no longer effective. That is my belief.

The coming recession is going to take down the $USD and the earnings-driven equity market. As dividend yields improve (on the back of falling stock prices), then the bond market will sink too. It will sink to a point where interest yields are competitive.

So as far as I'm concerned, these markets are headed south along with the $USD. The oil price and base metal prices will have to fall somewhat in a recessive economy, but gold can and will likely remain strong because of problems with the $USD.

Yes, Bernanke did what he could do at the previous Fed meeting, and now we have to wait until the Sept meeting to see what's in store. I really don't think it matters at this point. Once the economic slowdown starts to take equity prices down, and dividend yields up, then the bond market will come down as well and interest yields will go up.

Moreover, I think the collapse in yields this week was not a bond market reaction to economic data as much as it was a push by the Fed to liquefy the banks before the inevitable final crunch. The loan losses and mortgage foreclosure rates are going to be a serious matter in the next six months, I think. I wouldn't want to be long the shares of small local and regional lending banks, or mortgage companies.

But if you have to stay long there, at least consider a hedge with gold stocks and/or bullion and/or a short position on the $USD.

The future will not be as pretty a picture as was the case this week.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.95	4.94	4.91	4.95
6 Month	4.97	4.96	4.99	5.05
2 Year	4.87	4.86	4.96	5.10
3 Year	4.80	4.83	4.92	5.04
5 Year	4.78	4.80	4.90	5.01
10 Year	4.83	4.86	4.98	5.05
30 Year	4.97	4.99	5.09	5.09

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.56	3.56	3.60	3.74
2yr AAA	3.55	3.55	3.55	3.74
2yr A	3.61	3.61	3.75	3.84
5yr AAA	3.63	3.65	3.67	3.85
5yr AA	3.64	3.67	3.68	3.88
5yr A	3.67	3.68	3.68	3.90
10yr AAA	3.83	3.87	3.90	4.08
10yr AA	3.81	3.84	3.88	4.07
10yr A	4.01	4.09	4.04	4.22
20yr AAA	4.21	4.29	4.28	4.46
20yr AA	4.20	4.26	4.27	4.44
20yr A	4.34	4.39	4.36	4.61

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.31	5.33	5.41	5.53
2yr A	5.37	5.38	5.46	5.60
5yr AAA	5.30	5.32	5.47	5.56
5yr AA	5.39	5.42	5.53	5.65
5yr A	5.48	5.50	5.60	5.71
10yr AAA	5.70	5.80	6.00	5.81
10yr AA	5.62	5.66	5.87	5.86
10yr A	5.78	5.80	5.96	5.99
20yr AAA	6.04	6.05	6.12	6.11
20yr AA	6.15	6.19	6.30	6.32
20yr A	6.21	6.23	6.32	6.33

Interest rates and bond yields.

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A week ago I wrote: "We'll have to see where bond prices are headed (but) I'm now not so predisposed to higher prices as I was two weeks ago."

Nothing that happened in the bond market this week changed that fundamental outlook except that a recession ought to help top-quality fixed income instruments versus those of a lower quality.

I'd be avoiding the high-yield fixed income market here.

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US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

The consumer loan group (CFC, FNM and FRE) had a great week in the stock market. Enjoy the rally while it lasts. It's actually a good time to sell these into strength.

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CFC	34.66	-0.04	-0.12%	5.22%	-7.33%	-11.13%	-0.86%	-12.63%	2.61%	0.17%
FRE	61.17	0.34	0.56%	4.56%	6.20%	6.77%	-6.32%	1.11%	-7.74%	0.31%
FNM	49.33	0.13	0.26%	3.40%	3.83%	3.44%	1.21%	-0.28%	-9.49%	-2.82%
TLT	86.77	0.25	0.29%	1.60%	0.52%	1.68%	-5.46%	3.04%	-4.60%	-7.48%
IEF	81.95	0.22	0.27%	0.97%	0.50%	1.42%	-2.32%	1.60%	-1.13%	-3.66%
AGG	99.01	0.07	0.07%	0.55%	0.42%	1.01%	-1.62%	0.76%	-1.28%	-2.98%
TIP	101.27	0.35	0.35%	0.53%	0.29%	1.51%	-1.72%	1.36%	-1.41%	-2.59%
SHY	79.99	0.04	0.05%	0.28%	0.29%	0.35%	-0.41%	0.26%	-0.14%	-0.92%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

$CRB dropped a further -3.54 pct W/W to close at 332.32.

The price has now fallen below the important 40-week Moving Average (support when prices are above it and falling, and resistance when below and trying to rally up through it), which is now 337.88, and also well below the 50-day MA (343.24).

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

This week $WTIC (near oil futures) traded down -5.12 pct to 72.10 from 75.99. A week ago I had warned of downside surprises.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

A week ago I wrote: "$GOLD suffered a loss of -2.45 pct W/W, to close the week at 631.43. For all the screaming, you'd think it was 531.43; Future direction here depends largely on the $USD and the Dollar:Euro and Dollar:Yen trading; the charts don't look all that great for precious metals for the week ahead; With the cross-currents in the market, what with U.N. resolutions, Alaska oil pipelines being shut down, and matters too numerous to mention, it's probably a good time for me to take a holiday. This gold forecasting game is getting very tough today. :-)"

I'm not smiling today. $GOLD dropped 17.33 (-2.74 pct) to 614.10, and seems to want to test the support at 600.

But I'm still a believer. Number one is that some of the precious metals, like $SILVER and $PALL had a week of gains. Number two is that the $USD fell.

So I think somebody is trying to knock down the price of gold, which means I'm hanging in. In fact, for any of the precious metals only one 50-day Moving Average has been violated, which is for $GOLD, and none (including gold) of the more important 40-week MA's have been violated.

Moreover, it looks to me like the $USD is barely managing to keep from falling into a lower trading range. If this new trading range happens and the 40-week/50-day MA's for the precious metals are staying below the current price, then I'm still going for the gold.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER had a good week, going up +1.28 pct W/W to close at 12.07.

The 40-week/50-day MA's for $SILVER are 10.73/11.20. No capitulation here.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT closed down 30.10 (-2.40 pct) W/W to 1225.30, which is not surprising if the production cutbacks at Ford and GM mean many fewer platinum-based catalytic converters.

But, the 40-week/50-day MA's for $PLAT are 1116.94/12223.73. No capitulation here, although the price is awfully close to the 50-day MA.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL gained +12.59 (+3.88 pct) W/W to close at 337.48.

The 40-week/50-day MA's for $PALL are 314.93/320.22. No capitulation here.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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Yes, I remain more cautious on copper than gold and silver.

$COPPER dropped 7.85 (-2.26 pct) W/W to 339.80. I think last week's price (361.50) in StockCharts data was wrong, and that the price was down a small fraction of a pct a week ago.

For a while, it appeared that the huge Escondida copper mine in Chile (8.5 pct of world supply) would be resolved as the workers' roadblocks were removed while the union and BHP management try to work a final deal.

But the news about the closure over strike action seems to be on again, off again. This is important, so readers ought to check the news.

I noted that a lengthy closure, which would keep copper prices high, would also help BHP share prices because the total resource grows in value. Then I noted that BHP plans a massive share buy-back, which ought to also help the stock, which just happened to be up +4.24 pct this week, closing at 42.81.

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As a long-term shareholder of any company that buys back shares in a "hot" market, and cannot wait till the Monthly RSI 7 falls to 30, I get pissed.

For BHP to spend shareholder capital this way makes no sense at all. The least they ought to do is put the cash to work in the fixed income markets pending a drop in the price of some of the junior and mid-sized mining companies they'd like to take control of.

I saw companies doing this in 2000 as well " right at the top of the market. It looks to me like a pay-off to the holders of big share blocks who want to "off" their stock at these levels, and management becomes the take-out agent. If that is going on, then you can imaging how many private Swiss banking accounts are getting filled these days.

I said this recently: Whenever " for any reason -- there is a significant use of corporate funds, management ought to be required by regulators to explain the full details to shareholders, and then sign the statement as a declaration of fact. Then ten years later, if somebody comes across a numbered account in Switzerland belonging to one of these CEO's/CFO's/Exec Chairmen and the coffers were filled at about that time, those persons ought to be severely prosecuted.

Is it any wonder some of us remain skeptical of markets when these things happen?

Early in my career I made the same allegation about a huge oil company doing this under dubious circumstances. I did it over lunch with a very senior executive of one of Canada's largest corporations as well as with a past Minister of Energy for the Province of Ontario. The executive called me out, and so I did the homework by having the Ontario Securities Commission send me a list of every block trade carried out by two associated companies. I proved that the senior officers of the one were selling out to the associated oil company at prices that were about +5 pct above prior market average prices. It was disgusting. I sent the proof to the corporate exec, who was amazed that I made my case. It's called walking the talk. That man became a friend for life " out of respect.

I absolutely wonder why securities regulators allow these share buy-backs without complete and total transparency to the market place.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABX	31.66	0.71	2.29%	1.57%	-0.57%	11.95%	9.85%	3.67%	10.51%	20.43%
MDG	27.39	0.11	0.40%	-0.04%	-0.25%	3.48%	14.32%	-9.12%	14.94%	42.73%
KGC	12.33	-0.24	-1.91%	-0.32%	2.58%	17.09%	24.67%	13.85%	28.97%	88.53%
LIHRY	43.52	0.31	0.72%	-0.41%	-3.55%	7.43%	25.49%	0.86%	42.45%	110.04%
BVN	27.80	0.01	0.04%	-0.71%	-5.76%	8.68%	-5.95%	6.51%	7.54%	14.73%
AEM	34.71	-0.14	-0.40%	-0.97%	-5.14%	7.66%	57.49%	4.90%	34.48%	165.57%
GLG	35.82	0.02	0.06%	-1.24%	-3.86%	7.66%	20.40%	7.79%	23.47%	93.83%
NEM	50.71	-0.01	-0.02%	-2.01%	-2.98%	0.02%	-11.25%	-0.51%	-9.78%	26.36%
GG	28.73	0.38	1.34%	-2.87%	-4.14%	7.04%	18.72%	-6.45%	14.46%	68.01%
GFI	19.33	-0.23	-1.18%	-6.39%	-8.56%	-6.21%	0.31%	-13.97%	-14.39%	74.30%

The U.S.-listed goldminers ETF (GDX), and the Toronto goldminer index ETF (XGD) were down -0.80 pct, and -1.07 pct respectively. These were not big losses, and in fact the trading on Friday was to the upside.

As I have written, I am hanging in with the goldminers until I see (i) the $USD rally into a new bull trend, AND (ii) the current share prices fall below the 40-week/50-day Moving Averages.

In the case of the current price/50-day MA, for GDX it is 38.38/37.87 and for XGD, it is 74.99/73.49.

Close but this ain't horseshoes.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

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Forex:

The $USD lost ground this week. The $USD moved down -0.46 pct W/W to close at 85.09.

A week ago, I was surprised the $USD had strengthened, so I wrote: "I'm not going to let two days (Thursday and Friday) discourage me, however. It was just a week ago, I wrote about the losses in the USD: "But, remember, nothing in the market happens in a straight line." You see how right I am. (lol).. Let's wait till Monday to see if there is going to be three up days in a row; I'm a Dollar Bear, for the long-term."

I do admit the $USD is a key to my reasoning that markets are weakening structurally, even if periodically they get a boost that sends equity and bond prices higher.

Presently the $USD is trading below the important 40-week/50-day MA's.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) gained +0.76 pct W/W to close at 128.18. Not much, but a gain nonetheless.

Presently, the Euro is trading above the 40-week/50-day MA's.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

The British Pound lost -0.47 pct W/W to close 188.06.

A week ago I noted: "There was a big down day on Thursday, and the charts are looking weak for the period ahead."

Presently, the Pound is trading above the 40-week/50-day MA's.

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

A week ago I wrote: "The Japanese Yen was really weak against the USD this week. Friday was a disaster, as the JPY dropped -0.90 pct, which made for a loss of -1.79 pct for the week. The JPY now sits at 85.92. There is solid technical support at 84.87. But by then my gold might get crushed another $10-$20 USD; To say I am surprised that the USD gained so much strength against all the currencies this week would be an understatement. To me, the U.N. Resolution and shut down of fighting in Lebanon ought to weaken the USD. Yes, it will also weaken oil, but there are so many other negatives to consider for oil, that I can't see oil dropping like a stone should the war end in Lebanon."

Following the U.N. resolution, the price of oil did not drop (much) immediately. Then while the European Brent price stayed firm, the NY Crude dropped like a stone for some reason " traders blowing out the Bulls I guess. But then the oil price started to come back off the bottom. So I don't think the war is much a factor in the $USD/oil markets.

The Yen is at a crossroads here. The current price of 86.29 is just above the 40-week MA and just below the 50-week MA. The bounce the Yen took this week (+0.43 pct W/W including +0.21 pct on Friday) helped keep the Yen above the crucial support of the 40-week MA.

I use the Yen as another market indicator for gold. So, if the price starts trading above the 50-week MA (like the Euro) and appears, on the basis of other technical indicators, to be breaking out to the upside, then I'd feel comfortable that gold is going to rally.

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

The Cdn Dollar is in the same position as the Yen. The current price (88.92) is above the 40-week MA (87.68) but just a bit below the 50-day MA (89.00).

This week, the $CDW lost gained a small fraction (-0.11 pct) on the basis of some weak econ data at the end of the week.

A couple years out, I see it at par with the U.S. Dollar. That might be the case today if the Bank of Canada set the Funds rate above the U.S. rate instead of considerably below it. The latter btw is helping exports ad helping grow the economy at an optimal rate. I just wish the govt would pay down more of the national debt during these "good" times.

And of course, I am against the country being militarily involved in other lands. Canadians no longer can call themselves "peace-keepers."

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equities:

International equity markets this week were a mixed bag with the big winner being India (IFN) trading up +7.0 pct to 40.66. That makes sense since India is a huge importer of oil, and oil prices fell this week.

Moreover, the Russian (TRF) and Canadian (EWC) markets that rely on strong oil prices were well behind the other global equity markets. Canada made a small gain (+0.75 pct) and Russia was down -0.27 pct W/W.

But other than India and Japan (up +4.3 pct), most international markets did not beat the performamce of U.S. equities this week.

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	40.66	-0.38	-0.93%	7.03%	6.27%	2.73%	-1.48%	-24.20%	-13.49%	12.32%
QQQQ	38.79	0.06	0.15%	6.19%	4.98%	8.66%	-6.10%	-0.67%	-5.87%	-0.15%
EWJ	14.03	0.07	0.50%	4.31%	3.09%	9.87%	0.57%	-2.30%	5.49%	28.72%
IEV	95.40	0.36	0.38%	3.20%	1.93%	7.40%	14.29%	6.01%	11.45%	22.23%
SPY	130.69	0.66	0.51%	2.90%	1.94%	5.44%	3.15%	3.55%	1.46%	6.97%
EWZ	40.50	0.19	0.47%	2.53%	0.37%	9.11%	16.28%	3.45%	-3.80%	51.86%
EWU	21.85	0.05	0.23%	1.86%	0.64%	6.27%	14.04%	5.10%	11.48%	17.54%
EWC	24.33	-0.04	-0.16%	0.75%	1.04%	6.43%	8.37%	4.02%	4.65%	26.13%
FXI	80.40	-0.22	-0.27%	0.53%	3.47%	6.21%	27.64%	4.97%	12.21%	28.33%
TRF	70.41	-0.37	-0.52%	-0.27%	1.82%	10.27%	30.39%	-0.27%	-1.80%	54.58%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), closed at 14.03, up +4.31 pct.

The 40-week/50-day MA is now 86.19/86.56, so the current price is above the more important long-term MA, and slightly below the short-term MA. The rising bullish trend peaked in April and now may be starting the distribution process during this intermediate-term rally. When the rally starts off a Monthly RSI of 65, it is a time to be extra cautious.

The Monthly and Daily RSI 7 is high for the EWJ, but the Weekly seems ok and may have several weeks to grow however.

But traders took note that this week's gains in the NYSE-traded EWJ all happened at the open on Mon., Tues. and Wed. but the gains in Tokyo all happened Monday morning, and at the open on Wednesday and Thursday " but not Tuesday.

To me, this looks like a game. Capital pools working in concert are moving this market. Sustainable rallies do not operate this way; they move on the basis of economic and corporate news, for which there was nothing material that weekend.

Even the U.N. resolution on Lebanon had no serious impact on oil prices until Wednesday at the open, which was still at the July 20 level.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Monthly data:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) gained +1.86 pct W/W, closing at 21.85.

The 40-week/50-day MA is now 20.24/21.00, so the current price is well above it and in a still rising bullish trend.

The Weekly and Daily RSI 7 still have room to grow, but the Monthly is at 81, which ought to be scaring long-term traders.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Monthly data:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +0.75 pct this week, and it was only up +0.29 pct a week earlier. The ETF closed the week at 24.33.

The 40-week/50-day MA is now 23.31/23.54, so the current price is well above it and in a still rising bullish trend.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Monthly data:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

All the broad market equity indexes were up strongly, this week. The power was supplied in the pre-open orders mostly, but, whatever the reason and whomever the player, the price levels rose, and traders had to take note.

You cannot fight the tape and win.

The high-beta stock indexes Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 were up the most. The Nasdaq Composite gained +5.16 pct to 2163.95 and the Russell gained +4.81 pct to 711.68.

The S&P 500 and Dow 30 gained +2.81 pct and +2.64 pct respectively to 1302.30 and 11381.47.

So the market took on a different character this week. On low volume, there were huge opening moves. The key point however is that after the indexes seemed to peak mid-day Thursday, the buyers kept the accelerator pedal pressed, and there was not much of a pull-back at all.

That scares me and ought to concern put buyers.

The Dow Transports ($DTX0X) rallied big on Tues. and Wed., but not Monday, Thursday or Friday, where they were down. So the fact this economic health indicator did not rocket like the broad equity indexes still reflects serious problems ahead for U.S. equities.

But how far ahead are these possible problems?

As I have written here today, I believe that Fed policy has failed to keep inflation under wraps and so the authorities in the U.S. appear to be pushing for an extended business cycle before a recession brings it down. I don't think the Fed or the Administration in Washington want a recession to unfold prior to the mid-term election in November.

Frankly, at this point, it can't anyway because the GDP growth is still high, and a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. So the big "R" word won't come out until 1H07 at the earliest " if it actually does.

Traders will still have to keep close watch on the really economically sensitive cyclical consumer and industrial sectors, and the stocks of U.S. companies that have a low foreign revenue component " like the home-builders, most of the casinos (except LVS), domestic airlines and smaller hotel groups, local and regional banks, and so forth.

The GDP data is a lagging indicator. Traders need to be early.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

For the Dow 30 this week, there were 27 component stocks up and just 3 down. That's a huge week.

Interestingly, the three losers were MRK, which had a judge reverse an earlier ruling that had fallen in the company's favor, plus XOM, which lost just -0.90 pct W/W due to a drop of almost $4 in the price of NY Crude, and WMT, which has become a political football for some leaders of govt in the U.S..

A week ago I wrote: "The U.S. equity market is clearly roiled. Conventional sector rotation is out the window. Sector ETFs go from top to bottom and bottom to top performer in a single week. XLE, for example, went from #1 to #10 (week 29), then #10 to #3 (week 30), then #3 to #7 (week 31) and finally from #7 to #1 this week; Then a week ago, the XLB, which usually tracks energy (and has some energy components to it), went from #7 to #1 (while XLE was crashing), and then this week dropped to #6 (while XLE jumped up to #1; There is no consistency at this point. Traders are scrambling to buy and sell individual stocks, regardless of the economic or market drivers."

This week was the same. XLE went from ETF performer #1 to #10 of my list of 10, and XLP went from #2 to #7. Meanwhile SMH went from #9 to #1, and XLI went from #10 to #2.

Go figure.

There is very little traditional sector rotation underway. This has become a stock picker's market and it may stay that way until the game of musical chairs stops. Then we all sit down " that is, most of us get to stay in the game, and about -20 pct becomes a write-off.

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HPQ	35.52	0.37	1.05%	7.47%	9.49%	16.38%	23.46%	9.36%	4.26%	33.28%
IBM	79.90	0.53	0.67%	5.86%	5.26%	6.73%	-2.63%	-0.94%	-1.00%	-1.54%
INTC	18.39	-0.16	-0.86%	5.63%	5.15%	7.23%	-28.08%	-1.39%	-10.77%	-28.94%
MSFT	25.79	1.09	4.41%	5.57%	6.18%	8.04%	-3.91%	12.97%	-3.41%	-3.84%
HON	39.45	0.33	0.84%	5.31%	3.35%	8.95%	5.31%	-4.73%	-6.47%	3.43%
PFE	27.05	0.05	0.19%	4.76%	4.12%	13.51%	13.75%	13.23%	4.76%	4.68%
GE	34.00	0.08	0.24%	4.62%	3.66%	5.43%	-3.87%	-0.44%	1.16%	0.03%
HD	34.77	0.05	0.14%	4.51%	0.17%	2.72%	-15.69%	-9.48%	-16.94%	-14.57%
MCD	36.18	-0.06	-0.17%	4.30%	2.17%	4.27%	7.94%	5.05%	0.33%	8.36%
JPM	45.71	0.25	0.55%	4.05%	1.31%	5.93%	13.73%	6.95%	12.09%	31.88%
MMM	71.21	0.01	0.01%	3.91%	2.53%	0.69%	-9.99%	-15.38%	-3.47%	-0.99%
MO	83.97	3.22	3.99%	3.87%	5.09%	5.40%	11.99%	19.14%	15.23%	19.29%
AIG	63.90	0.32	0.50%	3.78%	6.38%	8.01%	-8.22%	3.80%	-5.22%	4.09%
DD	40.33	-0.08	-0.20%	3.22%	1.74%	0.80%	-6.34%	-6.25%	-2.84%	-1.22%
AXP	53.26	-0.25	-0.47%	2.82%	2.01%	5.22%	1.29%	2.60%	-2.19%	-5.10%
UTX	61.84	-0.11	-0.18%	2.81%	-1.17%	3.15%	9.39%	-1.31%	6.62%	20.08%
BA	77.62	-0.97	-1.23%	2.19%	-2.35%	-1.85%	10.35%	-6.18%	6.39%	16.49%
C	48.60	0.03	0.06%	2.02%	0.21%	3.56%	-1.40%	-0.27%	5.10%	9.93%
CAT	68.31	-1.05	-1.51%	1.91%	-6.53%	-0.06%	18.18%	-8.46%	-5.19%	28.52%
DIS	29.91	0.01	0.03%	1.63%	0.03%	5.06%	22.58%	1.05%	11.15%	14.69%
JNJ	64.42	0.19	0.30%	1.50%	1.40%	4.36%	4.53%	7.12%	9.06%	0.26%
GM	30.55	-0.01	-0.03%	1.46%	-1.74%	5.42%	61.64%	26.97%	39.37%	-9.02%
KO	44.31	0.13	0.29%	1.26%	1.05%	0.93%	8.34%	1.75%	6.03%	1.79%
VZ	34.42	0.19	0.56%	1.03%	1.92%	8.00%	13.30%	13.19%	-1.04%	4.65%
T	30.51	0.06	0.20%	0.96%	-1.49%	11.59%	23.47%	23.32%	7.89%	26.86%
AA	28.43	-0.08	-0.28%	0.57%	-3.86%	-3.82%	-4.92%	-9.20%	-6.42%	1.28%
PG	60.39	0.05	0.08%	0.22%	1.58%	7.70%	2.74%	10.02%	-1.00%	11.46%
WMT	44.53	-0.10	-0.22%	-0.36%	-0.76%	1.85%	-3.68%	-5.70%	-3.72%	-5.74%
XOM	69.10	1.02	1.50%	-0.90%	0.60%	8.09%	18.18%	15.38%	14.12%	18.91%
MRK	39.52	0.69	1.78%	-2.66%	-4.43%	5.78%	20.67%	12.50%	9.63%	29.96%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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This week, Value Line reviews two companies I like " Disney, which is in the Cara 100, and 3M Company, which I dropped from the Cara 100 to the Cara 250 on June 25.

(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 18: next one is due Nov. 17)

The Disney studio business has been throwing off excellent profits last quarter from the film "Cars" and this 4Q06 from the year's blockbuster hit "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest". The theme park and hotel properties are doing great too.

Value Line's 2007 estimate of $2.65 cash flow and $1.70 earnings per share seem reasonable, and the company has been trading at about 15 times cash flow, on average, which projects to a $40 12-month target. That would put PE at just over 23, which is a little higher than Value Line's estimated 21.

So, I'll set a target of $40. A dividend of about $0.30 for next year is inconsequential.

In the interim, however, Disney is a major company in the consumer cyclical space that is headed for trouble with the popping of the real estate bubble, especially in the U.S., and we know that the success of "Pirates" is already priced into the stock.

Hence, I feel that the stock will be available for accumulation at lower prices than the current $29.91. I'm thinking that on its own I might be able to buy DIS later this year at say $25, and with put writes I figure I might take in the stock at $24.

So, if I accumulate a position in DIS at an average of $24, and I distribute it at an average of $40, my portfolio gain would be +66.6 pct. Over 12-months, that is excellent. Over 24-months, it is still outstanding.

Trading involves risk, the principle of which is well understood. But if you follow the strategy of accumulating shares of top-quality companies at low prices and distributing them at high prices, using technical indicators, your portfolio performance will improve.

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(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 18: next one is due Nov. 17)

As for 3M Company, I dropped this one from the Cara 100 because I switched to Boeing after the new 3M CEO didn't impress me as much as the old one who had moved to Boeing. But 3M is still a favorite.

The stock (MMM) is down to $71.21, which is actually an improvement to the $68.30 price of Friday's Value Line report. But I note that VL lowered the Timeliness rating on Aug-4, and the Technical rating on Mar-31, both dropping to a "3". That doesn't quite square with the analyst Jeremy Butler's conclusion, but like anything, we do our own homework and make our own conclusions.

Earnings of this company have been on a tear since 2001, so it's hard to quibble with the VL 2007 estimate of $4.80 EPS, nor with their estimate of a 20 PE. That projects a price of $96 in say 12 months, which is a fair target I'd say.

The high this year was $88.35 and the stock traded above $90 in Q04. So given the continued improvement in cash flow, earnings and dividends, I'd say the $96 target for 2007 is a reasonable one.

Judging from the falling RSI, and the outlook for the economy and the stock market, I'm going to set a target for an accumulation zone of say $65. The low a couple weeks ago was $67.05, so the target is a reasonable one.

The MMM dividend, however, is likely to be $1.92, which with put writes, ought to take my cost base down to say $62. The difference between $62 (accumulation) and $96 (distribution) represents a healthy +55 pct gain " not quite as good as what I project for DIS, but outstanding nonetheless.

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Dow 30 list:
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 23: next one is due Sep. 22)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 4: next one is due Nov. 3)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 16: next one is due Sep. 15)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 2: next one is due Sep. 1)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 7: next one is due Oct. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 2: next one is due Sep. 1)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 9: next one is due Sep. 8)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 11: next one is due Nov. 10)

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Wrap up:

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This week was a strange one. But it will get easier for me as I complete some projects such as (i) the Team Cara volunteer projects, which will morph into the Virtual Investor Club and (ii) the new asp info service and the full application to Bahamas securities regulators.

In the meantime, I have to acknowledge that the strength in equity markets this week took me by surprise. There is still too much "hot" money afloat in the world that wants to buy equities. If it is not going to be in real estate or collectibles, and the bond market is no prize, then it will be equities despite the obvious concerns of the market.

That appetite can fill a belly to a point where things could get painful down the road. However, we cannot disregard the market's action, and so I have taken strides this week to show my objectivity by pointing out the case for the Bulls as well as the Bears.

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BCara@BillCara.com