Bill, Bravo! And welcome home. Judging by the smoldering embers embedded in your first posting this day, you had a great and restful weekend.

Bill,

Intersting post. I too have noticed you veering more and more towards overtly political blogging, and away from blogging focused on the markets, stocks, and finance. Thanks for being truthful about this and showing us what your primary motivation has become.

When you decide to come back to market analysis and put aside the politicking, I will be interested to see what you have to say. But since there are already tens of thousands of politcal blogs, you'll have to expect your audience to shrink rapidly. I don't think I agree with most of your political positions, but even if I did, I would not want to see your fine finance blog going down to the lowest common political denominator so prevalent on the internet.

My handle's namesake never dabbled in politics, and I would never want to hear my stock broker's political views mixed together with his financial advice. Mixing the two has the potential to reduce business by at least 50%, if not more. Good luck on your new endeavor.

Bill is not your stockbroker.

Markets and politics are inextricably linked. If one is affecting the other, and Bill sees it, I want to hear about it.

One of the rights most potent and consistent techniques is an unceasing "working the refs" to spin things their way. The message is politically uncomfortable? Attack the source. This and the recent novalawyer post are just more examples of that. See the hysteria of the 30 year jihad against the NY Times for the technique writ large.

Mike
NYC

Bill,

I, for one, applaud your honesty and transparency on the matter of politics and markets. Of course they are interrelated, and you have marked the ground on which politics will enter discussion here. Problems arise when individuals attempt to highjack your blog with little to add but an attempt to proselytize. I do not come here to hear a political viewpoint on some event but I do need to know how the event affects a market.

Bill,

All professional traders understand that geopolitics have to be watched in order to position trades appropriately. One simply cannot perform valuable analysis without including politics, so I, for one, fully agree with your conclusions regarding future discussions here. Whether it's the end of the cold war, the current war on terror or government information on money supply data, the decisions made by government leaders have an effect on the capital markets. Where the dialogue can get ugly is when readers personal opinions are thrown into the mix, but without these opinions, there is no dialogue. Therefore, I hope that regular readers of this site will simply refrain from personal jabs and stick to the facts. If that is done, this could be the start of something big. Bravo.

Weeding through the spin is the toughest part of trading, IMO. That is why I continually review the key drivers to various markets - to keep my trading efforts grounded. Hopefully your grassroots effort will help us all in this area.

As to your decreased blogging efforts, the regular readers of your blog should be able to comment on various "cause and effect" events during a trading day. I hope we can all help out in this area.

Regarding the war on terror: I watched the movie "Kingdom of Heaven" the other night. If some experts (on current Middle East affairs) views are correct that the Iranian President wants to be like Saladin (in the movie), then the Israeli / Hezbollah activity will not die, it will simply be quiet until the time that it is not quiet anymore. Also, if the Bush Administration believes these experts, then the US will not withdraw, rather, more money will be spent on the Middle East campaign. I have taken care to understand how this scenario will effect my portfolio and have plans in place for this, if it is indeed correct.

With regards to gold: Central Bank sales will end on September 26th, per the Washington Agreement. If they have more to sell, it may delay the usual fall rally (due to India's physical gold demand) that often starts about now. I am currently thinking that we will have opportunities to purchase gold lower until that time. Last shakeout of weak hands before new highs? (this may also hold true for oil).

g034

Lloyd's of London's $12 billion Audit Fraud is the greatest state-sponsored swindle since the South Sea Bubble.

U.S. Justice Department spent several million dollars taking depositions and preparing indictments for Mail Fraud by Lloyd's of London.

TWICE, prosecutions by the Department of Justice have been cancelled :-

First time was at the request of British Prime Minister Major to President G.H. Bush, and the Second time was at the request of British Prime Minister Blair to President G.W. Bush.

Justice is not available in the U.K - a Fair Trial is not available, and, Lloyd's UN-Limited Investors are denied access to the European Court of Human Rights, as the U.K. Government has "Fixed" the ECHR Registrars.

22,000 families have been impoverished by this State-Sponsored Fraud.
...................

Markets are strongly impacted by: geopolitics, corporate control of media, as well as consolidation of banking, brokerage & market-making functions.

If we the people are not constantly evaluating these impacts, we will not be able to educate our kids, or retire in dignity.

It's as simple as this: we're all traders now, whether we know it or like it or not! And we had damned well be able to analyze calmly what drives markets.

BenjaminGraham,

I read your comment and it got me thinking;

I guess you are new to Bill's site.

MikeNYC is correct, markets and politics are inextricably linked. Bill's discussions have not changed since the old Traderwizard site and will continue to focus on trading.

If a broker is worried about losing 50% of his/her business due to discussing political issues with his/her clients, performance would have suffered over the years. Isn't that really what you pay a pro for, top notch performance? If politics and markets are linked, why would you not discuss politics? If a portfolio doesn't capture current geopolitical themes, what is the investor doing? Rather, what is the broker doing, worrying about his/her business, or growing his/her client's wealth?

Bill's site is here to teach you to fish. I have a feeling that if you simply learned Bill's basic techniques for managing your money, that you would outperform your current broker.

If you decide to learn how to fish, good luck to you! There are many here who want to help.

Re: "Intersting post. I too have noticed you veering more and more towards overtly political blogging, and away from blogging focused on the markets, stocks, and finance."

Politics (one definition) - "use of intrigue or strategy in obtaining any position of power or control, as in business, university, etc."

The politics cited in the former quote is, I assume, local politics. The politics debated here is Geopolitics which can have a significant effect on "markets, stocks, and finance."

For example, we are all influenced and affected daily by the politics of oil; the politics of precious metals and mining, gold in particular; the politics of world currencies; the politics of multi-national corporations, the monetary politics of the U.S. Feds, etc,.

My question: How do we separate the quadruplets (politics, markets, stocks, and finance.) and still have an effective (i.e realistic), debate?

Reveal to us the way and some shall follow.

Well were at critical levels here in the markets.

Who's going to give in first oil or equities?

Volume is so low - anything could happen.

tradesman

On Feb 24, 1982 Lloyd's of London Auditors, "Neville Russell" wrote to Lloyd's that it was impossible to quantify asbestos liabilities.

- The Lloyd's Insurance market was bust.

The UK Treasury, the Bank of England, and the Department of Trade and Industry were informed.

Later that year, Lloyd's Act 1982 was passed placing Lloyd's ABOVE the Law with immunities from Legal Suit.

25,000 fresh un-limited investors were recruited, and told that Lloyd's had a RIGOROUS Audit. - the State decided to use them as "Financial Blotting Paper".

....................

The only time I've observed purely political points on this site has been from a few political comments left by others. To say geopolitics does not influence markets is to have your head in the sand,IMHO.

Speaking of influence, perhaps we could have a write-in to CNBC to archive their broadcasts or at least provide video replays on the web that can be downloaded like ROBTV. I noticed Bloomberg now provides recent interviews for download and viewing.

Roadsign to the future

From Everbank:
Peoples Bank of China has announced a stronger reference rate around which it allows its currency to trade. No details yet. Renminbi rose VS the dollar after the announcement by a larger amount than previously allowed.

I expect little steps overall, but perhaps we'll reach 7.50 in 2007!

Bill, You are right about the impact of politics on the financial markets and media.

It seems counterintuitive for oil to be going down like it is today based only on Ernesto? On Sunday Iran successfully tested missiles that may be launched from a submarine and their leader said that they will definitely not comply with the AUg 31st deadline. I would be interested to hear opinions, because I have these misgivings about todays market.

Why would oil be going down so much with the Iran nuclear deadline 3 days away and why is this not being discussed?

BG,

I believe either you are underestimating the value of politics to the market, or you are willing to ignore it on principle alone. If my broker was using political rationale for his suggestions, I would absolutely want to hear his politics. War has huge effects on capital markets, and that is a very political issue. Money policy is also very important.

Bill doesn't typically stray into purely political waters. He isn't going to say if banning gay marriage or abortion is good or bad because it is unlikely to have an effect on the market. But what happens in Israel and surrounding countries could very well determine if the US will have a period of peace or further war, which effects the market. If the Fed has loyalties to private industry or politics over the interest of the country, that is a big issue.

Bill typically doesn't even say that something is "good" or "bad" so much as good or bad for various markets. And, if he strays from that, then that's life. It isn't always easy to sanitize your writings of opinion. But I don't think he ever intends to force any political view on anyone else. And he certainly doesn't bring politics into his discussions any more than Jim Jubak or the columnists on Yahoo Finance. I suspect Bill's political views are probably different from mine in a number of areas, but I wouldn't know because even today he rarely makes his opinions known.

Jeff

I live in the US. The video Peace, Propaganda and the Promised Land gave me look at the Isreali-Palestinian conflict that I've never seen nor considered. It maybe slanted. It maybe inaccurate. But I wouldn't have seen it if I hadn't discovered you. Stay well and keep sharing whatever you dig up.

I don't care for the political entries so much, but I also don't come here to read my own opinion. I come to learn from someone with much more experience in the markets than I have or will have. Hopefully in time I will be able to connect the dots that form the picture Bill has in mind. If not, so be it. I'll just spend more time thinking about the less political posts.

I just finished viewing "Peace, Propaganda & The Promised Land" and to those who summazied the video as slanted or inaccurate, the only reply that's appropriate is: "Don't ever believe your lying eyes."

Re: the impact of politics on the financial markets and media

Impact? What impact?? The financial markets and the media ARE politics - everyone has it backward.

As of today, except in a very limited sense - there is no "free market". The indexes and prices of stocks and commodities are merely a set of numbers manipulated by those in power - they have become the "invisible hand".

The media is there to tell a tale one way or another to their advantage - ie: take your money.

Just be aware of this and use it to your advantage - I try to trade this way everyday.

Take today for example:
Walmart SSS up,
oil down,
cautiousness on CNBC talking about recession,
guys advising everyone he is overweight energy

So what was this telling me for today?
(1) Buy the open or buy after pullback: tech, retailers and transports.
(2) Dump it after lunch.
(3) Short energy stocks in a few days if they rebound.

tradesman

I decided earlier to let all this political stuff find it's level and then we would be back to normal business on Bill's Blog, then g032 posted above about the fishing lessons compelling me to posit a tad on the subject for what it's worth.

Back at the beginning of the year when I was just learning how to open the tackle box and begin my fishing adventure here, Bill and others helped me hook and land LYO.

Now some wanted me to sell LYO when it reached into the 70's (RSI) in late spring, but I was an old ‘buy and hold' kinda guy so I put it in my basket, took it home on ice and after reading many in depth articles Bill posted about this CARA-100 company, thought I‘d better put this fish in the freezer.

I found out that LYO was the majority owner in the old Sinclair Houston heavy crude oil refinery, even though LYO was considered a chemical company. And guess who owned the minority portion? Yeah Fidel's old buddy Chavez down in Venezuela.

Well then, the reading became much more interesting. LYO had gotten fed up with VZ and decided to sell the Houston facilities and every other day a new suitor was named to be in the running, but to make a long story short, LYO began to leak (not oil or was it ;) they might indeed buy the refinery from Caesar. Immediately the stock begins to fall on the market because the big investment houses said LYO couldn't stand the debt load and would seriously dent their credit.

Many of the by products of the Houston refinery are used in the chemicals LYO produces, and lets not forget this is the largest heavy crude oil refinery in the USA (280,000 bpd).

Further, VZ will continue to supply crude at a favorable price. Heavy is less expensive than sweet crude being pumped right near by in West TX and gee, isn't there a great market for gasoline these days.

Needless to say, the price of LYO has continued to climb after it's purchase a week or so ago or the refinery and many investment houses have recently upgraded their assessment and targets.

Now by utilizing the incentive Bill and others here have added to my fishing techniques i.e. further reading of financial reviews and studying geopolitical facts that came to light about this stock, old C.Note was able to make some decisions and take financial responsibility on his own in buying more stock.

as long as people will continue think as the government and mass media tell them to then politics will be involved...that will be forever.

Actually, I watched Peace, Propaganda and the Promised Land awhile ago. I stopped trusting the mainstream meadia in the U.S. a long time ago -- indeed, the internet has been a boon for anyone seeking alternative sources of information.

Keep up the great work, Bill. I agree 100% that being politically aware -- no matter how you vote -- is a key to making wise investment decisions.

Looking at some of my long-term big cap techs today -- all doing rather nicely. Otherwise, a gloomy day for the N2S port.

As we used to say in the '60s, Bill -- right on! There are few people who "connect the dots" better than you in this turbulent world. Over the long haul, as I know you realize, "politics," globally and nationally defined, is a good deal more important than trading. Keep that strong voice of yours personal and independent. And don't pile too much on your plate at the outset.

Bill,

Best comments and honest. Your right in every
respect. Keep us informed as always.

This is the Best site for Market news and Direction, that I ever seen. And I've seen plenty.

Bests Always

John

.........40 million hits and growing, why? , cause people refuse to continue on in life with a computer chip installed in their minds and we all want a rightful piece of the pie

It seems you have to wonder what motivates some of the people commenting here, on CNBC, in the markets, the news etc. I truly believe Bill's only motivation is to help people, to make the markets more transparent, to give us little people a chance to get ahead. And if you don't like that, then what are you thinking? Bill, hang in there and know there are multitudes of non-commenters who support everything you do, because we know you have no hidden agenda. Thanks so much.

John C

John C

As Bill has commented in the past, CNBC seems to cheerlead and you have to wonder who they represent. It's not the little guy!

If you could archive some of those interviews where an analyst is promoting on behalf of the gnomes, you could review at a later date and see what malarky they are pedaling. It would be educational and revealing as well as holding them accountable.

In your words: " motivation to help people, to make the markets more transparent, to give us little people a chance to get ahead. And if you don't like that, then what are you thinking?"

Bill,
I am very happy to see you continue to move in this direction. I believe we investors must have up to date knowledge of geopolitical events, the capacity to interpret them, and the consciousness to make decisions that will be positive for our porfolios as well as our sense of social wellbeing. I only recently discovered your site. I look forward to reading your blog on a daily basis.
I do believe you are an independent thinker, but it is difficult for me to accept anyone as an objective thinker. Perhaps it is only a matter of semantics. It is my perception that objectivity is impossible to achieve. How can we be objective? We are involved, we are affected, we are influenced, we are convinced, and so on.
Nevertheless, it is important to build new structures that are more accessible, more vital, more interactive and more honest. I believe you are sincere in your intention and desire to build or facilitate such structure. I believe it will be very successful with you as its foundation.
In regards to objective thinking; to me it would mean you would have to be totally detached from the world, your personal history, your immediate surroundings and their influences, and from this state of consciousness be able to view reality from a purely objective manner. You would then have to share this knowledge to not only us the "grassroots" but everyone without any discretion or moral judgements, because if you make a choice to whom to give or not to give, then you are subjective..
But on the other hand, when someone sets out to create a structure based on independent and objective thinking, such a structure is bound to be more successful for our personal success and social wellbeing than the one that is based on what we have now.

ALOHA !!

You're the right man for the job Bill ...

Is there any reason why the current Treasury Sec and White House Chief Of Staff are both ex-Goldman Sachs execs? I do not think this is what the Founding Fathers had in mind ... and if you believe it is purely coincidence then pop the cork on the dijeredoo mate ...

Politics is the market!