Bill,

Yes, LME decisions have moved all the metal markets in the past, but only for the short term. Risk and opportunity.

The seasonal tendencies for both gold and silver turn bullish the first week in September (see www.seasonalcharts.com), so the summer wait is coming to an end.

But, I continue to feel that the fall metals rally may be delayed due to the LME decisions, Bernanke speaking today (probably hawkish), and the November elections providing reason to bring out "goldilocks" again. Dino will probably sell off gold at the close of London markets this morning (will that coincide with Bernanke speaking? I think he will be done by then.) to leverage these factors.

If Pierre Lasonde was correct when he said that Central Banks would sell/depress gold this summer, they probably aren't done and Dino was probably waiting to the end of summer and an opportunity to leverage something like this LME decision.

Seems like short term headwinds for the last shakeout before much higher prices.

I am in, but slightly underweight, waiting for opportunities in the next few weeks to hit my full allocation. If no opportunities occur, I still will have excellent gains if my notions are correct.

CNBC was talking about less inflation this morning...

Thanks

Financials-

This note from BCA: Consumer Finance Shares On The Verge Of A Major Breakdown?

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp

coupled with the Financial Services Sector at Rydex being VERY POPULAR and...

Money Center Banks being one of the lowest ranked industries in regards to insider activity...

make this a vulnerable area IMHO. In addition as a MAJOR sector within the SPX if weakness shows up here (as we are seeing in consumer sector) the market might not take it well.

"Recession not consensus view." Ronny Insana this morning... good I can relax.

As I recall recession didn't become the consensus view last time (2001) until...after the trough of the recession had already passed.

For those who would rather read:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2006/20060825/default.htm

I agree, silver looks strong and I've been watching it for years.

Central Fund of Canada AMEX:CEF TSE:CEF-A
Current bullion holdings:
Au 680026 ounces
Ag 33995514 ounces
16.7mm cash.
104654523 shares outstanding.

Average trading last few sessions 9.4% premium over NAV. Sometimes goes 14 pct over.
NAV moves sharply up/down on any big silver moves.

Those recent changes in silver inventory in the COT reports are due to CEF taking physical delivery. I have a feeling we will have some Ag/Au action this fall.

Au 621.60 Ag 12.30 Oil 73.65 Rate 1.1078

Silver DOES lead. Since 6.13 when stocks bottomed, silver stocks are up 38%, and gold stocks up 22%.

(These are media general sub-industry groups, which are not cap-weighted, but square-root-of-cap-weighted, which avoids the biggest cap stocks overly swaying the index).

SLV is up 26%, and GLD up 10.5% over the same period.

It seems the stocks are the place to be, the silver stocks ...

A "cara sentiment indicator"?

With my new RSI7 screen, I find that 11 Cara 100 stocks have all three RSI7 readings below 30 and only 2 (XOM and RY=Royal Bank of Canada) above 70.

Could we say this compares levels of enthusiasm and pessimism for high-quality, ethical growth stocks?

(Before taking this too far, I'd appreciate a quant within the community checking that the formulas provided by Worden are OK.)

Jock,

I'd be happy to check your formulas for the Worden program. If you can, cut and paste them into an email and send to: chirodude@ulster.net

david...