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August 25, 2006

Mining in Venezuela, Fri., Aug. 25, 2006, 7:38 AM

Given that Venezuelan President Chavez is presently touring China with a high level political and economic delegation, there will likely be news about the intentions of Venezuela with respect to foreign investment. UPDATE

So I was asked to make a request of Shanghai Fly to keep tabs on a local company called Shandong Gold Group, which is developing the Sosa Mendez property.

Our good fortune is that Shanghai Fly has become a composite as there are now several independent individuals there who are networking with me. I asked them all.

The first letter came in as follows:



Hi Bill,

I made some quick check regarding Shandong Gold Group. Here are some findings for your reference.

1. The Listco (600547/SH) is a subsidiary company controlled by Shandong Gold Group. Shandong Gold Group holds around 51% of the shares of the Listco.

2. Shandong Gold Group has another joint venture with Yan Zhou Mining Group called "Venezuela Jin Yan stock company" (VenezuelaCo). Shandong Gold Group owns 68%, Yan Zhou Mining Group owns 32%. The VenezuelaCo is registered in Venezuela in 2003 and is developing the Sosa Mendez Gold Mine in partnership with CVG Minerven. The arrangement of partnership is unknown.

3. There are some news (could be rumor) that the Venezuela project is near completion and they could start formal production of gold in the end of this year. Given the recent signs of good relationship between China and Venezuela, it should not have major problem in getting relevant government approval for production.

Above all, the Venezuela project has nothing to do with the Listco, unless some day that the Shandong Gold Groups injects its equity in VenezuelaCo into the Listco.

cheers,



On behalf of us all, I thank this Grassrooter (the name I am now calling the Team Cara volunteers). As our network grows, all readers will see the power of sharing information, and I'm going to push the envelope like no one has before. I'll unveil the plan in a week or two, but in the interim I'll be looking for techies who would like to contribute some programming hours. I'm in the process of organizing that now.

By googling Sosa Mendez Gold, I came up with a very informative report of the U.S. Dept of Commerce report (2002) on mining in Venezuela.

This material covers the Shandong Gold Group of China, which operates in Venezuela. Also covered is Crystallex as well as info on taxes, royalties and the like.

If any reader would like to take the time to flesh out more current reports of this kind, and link them here, I am sure others would appreciate the gesture.

I believe strongly that the gold market is about to break out to the upside, and that junior resource companies with large mining developments underway will be the best market play.

Moreover, and this is the point of the article, I believe that whenever a wide gap exists between perception and fact, there is an exceptional opportunity for trading gains. Because of the political rhetoric that has been coming out of Washington recently, nowhere is the gap presently bigger than with respect to foreign investment in Venezuela.

I am very confident that Crystallex (AMEX, T: KRY) will work out because I believe the company will very soon receive the third and final permit (environmental) to proceed.

Of course, next best would be to hear President Chavez make some positive statements along those lines to his Chinese hosts this week.


ADDENDUM: Re: Shandong Gold Group(symbol 600547 SH)

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ADDENDUM #2:

The original Shanghai Fly has forwarded this info:

I looked around on sites and even the company's main site in Chinese, but I didn't find anything substantially related that was recent. I'll keep an eye on it.

Here are some interesting financial numbers for 600547. It has 1.3 billion yuan in assets, and 658 million yuan in liabilites(total). Earnings have been soaring of course, due to the gold bull market. 2003 saw 0.23 yuan per share earned, 2004 saw 0.36 yuan put into the coffers, 2005 saw 0.55 yuan per share in the black, and it's only halftime in 2006 and it's earned 0.35 yuan per share already. It currently has a P/E of 39.6(600489 has a P/E of 34.7). It has 160 million shares outstanding, 75 million floated on the secondary market, the rest controlled by other state owned corporations.

Sorry for the somewhat delayed response, didn't really find anything(the main news reports mentioned Chavez's visit. It appears to be friendly {Washington won't be pleased} as Chavez agreed to increase oil exports to China.

A 500,000 barrel in oil imports per day(which is the objective for 2009) http://english.people.com.cn/200608/26/eng20060826_297063.html Other deals mentioned as well in the article. Currently is around 300,000 a day to China (something like 1.5 million to the US ) according to relevant sources..) is worth $36.5 million a day.). Thought I'd send this fundamental stuff.

Not too much info about the deals with ShanDong Gold though, Shandong Gold has a market capitalization of 4392 million yuan/$800 million.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 25, 2006 07:38:05 AM | Category: 15 Materials

Discourse

Bill (off topic of gold) it would be great to hear what Shanghai Fly knows about LFC.

Posted by: Bullring [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 8:09 AM [link]

Thanks Bill,

I'm currently long KRY. Obviously, KRY may be a bit more speculative than your other suggestions. Would you please comment on position size?

Given the current market, what part of one's investable worth do you feel should be put in gold related vehicles and what part in stocks?

For a stock like KRY, what percentage of one's total investable worth should this stock represent.

I'm not looking for the "right" answers, but knowing your thoughts would be very helpful.

Thanks...david...

Posted by: ...david.... [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 8:17 AM [link]

Slightly more off topic. But Bill should like this!

http://www.travelzoo.ca/Deal.aspx?deal=254790&outsource=top20newsl

Here is some news and intro prices for the much anticipated WESTJET direct flights from Toronto to Nassau Bahamas. $179 each way.

Posted by: JamesT [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 8:29 AM [link]

I like KRY, and am long. What is the possibility that Chavez will turn over all of the rights to (Las Cristinas) KRY and other mines to China?

Posted by: rick s [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 10:21 AM [link]

David

Bill can not and does not provide individual investment advice. This has been mentioned numerous times in the past on this blog. JMHO, but the word "speculative" in your comments is key and you should have exposure plans for speculative plays.

rick s

Chavez is a wild card and that's why KRY is a speculative play. Nonetheless, it is an attractive spec. It is possible, but at what price for his country? I'm interested in what kind of a deal may come out of his China visit and that's why I inquired in a previous post. Perhaps he provides a better incentive for the Chinese as they are also good oil clients (as the USA is also). On the other hand, perhaps the Chinese offers are better than KRY and future geopolitical costs rise for them and others. This is what makes markets and spec plays interesting. Good luck!

No position at this time in KRY, but that may change.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 10:41 AM [link]

Seamus,

You are right about CHavez being a wild card. If Venezuela had leadership that was more business friendly or at least predictable, KRY would probably be @ least $5/pps pre-permit.

In terms of the Chinese risk, I see this as the only alternative (and a slim one) to having KRy develop the mine, as they can not do this on their own. WIth everything going on in the world, perhaps an opportunistic time for CHina to expand their influence on South America, which probably has the largest amount of undeveloped natural resouces of anywhere on the planet.

Posted by: rick s [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 10:53 AM [link]

rick s

China has already established and continues to look for opportunities to increase footholds (business/trade relationships)in South America and Africa over the last few years. You can't blame them as they were shut out in the USA when CEO wanted to purchase OXY (as I recall).

Out of here to get a start on the weekend.

Bill---don't worry about the WIR, get some rest and enjoy the weekend.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 11:16 AM [link]

To all,

The chances that Venezuela would steal the rights of foreign investors such as those of Crystallex are slim to zero. Closer actually to zero.

Venezuela needs foreign investment.

I guess there are people in Washington who would actually like people on Main Street to think that Chavez is capable of such things.

This is a sad commentary on how Washington works.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 11:19 AM [link]

Frankly, China and Venezuela are both communist countries and should not be trusted. And nationalism from a bully pulpit is picked up immediately.

Posted by: alan [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 11:58 AM [link]

Frankly Alan, the only person you should trust is yourself -- after you tape your ears and mouth and sit on your hands. I feel the same about myself.

But communism, socialism, Marxism, capitalism, whatever -ism label, are all control systems in a heirarchical society. That's why I march to my own drummer where my hierarchy is populated with personal values, ethics, goals and objectives, and so forth.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 12:08 PM [link]

I marketed equipment for large capital projects in Asia for several years. I shudder to think what would have happened to my net worth if I had invested in a company based on the prospects for business as a result of some political junket into the region. Kudo to you brave souls who are speculating that a trip by Chavez to China will result in a deal. The only thing you can bank on from this trip is some bad karaoke singing and some shenanigans with some country girls back in the hotel rooms.

Posted by: ableape [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 12:43 PM [link]

ableape,

Who is saying -- even remotely suggesting -- that Crystallex's prospects in Venezuela are dependent on political junkets etc, or hotel shenanigans in China? Or did I miss your point?

There are many major AAA-quality U.S. and international companies that have invested in Venezuela huge amounts of capital from people like yourself. So what is your point?

I ask you to please give the readers here the benefit of the doubt for having a substantial IQ that is offended by garbage like that. We appreciate where you are coming from, and agree there is a time and place where it might be relevant, but not with respect to your comment here.

Yours is an example of why some of the readers here have asked me to build a daily thread for comment only by trusted and value-adding sources, and to permit any of those people to zap entries like this, which would remove me from any implication of "personal" censorship.

The latter point would also allow me to leave this blog unattended at times.

Maybe other readers can chime in here?

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 1:14 PM [link]

I pointed out to "ableape" that about 1 pct of my readers are resident in China. These people are offended that my blog can be demeaned by such ridiculous comments.

In any event, Shanghai Fly #2 has checked in Re: Shandong Gold Group(symbol 600547 SH)

“Bill,
Though not a B-share stock, 600547 can be viewed here:�

http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/md/sh_b_qck.jsp?code=600547.SS&cycle=0

I added the chart to the article as an addendum.


Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 1:34 PM [link]

I see some interesting comments and misunderstandings here.

First I agree with Bill concerning, comments by Rick S. It would be very detrimental for any country to defraud it's current investors to reward one potential investor. First, it would give China a large sway over VZ, something VZ is trying to change with the US being it's main oil purchaser. Like a stock portfolio nations need a diverse number of foriegn investors.

Second, I think that ableape was very misunderstood. I hope I do not put word in his/her mouth as I explain my take on the comments made. The jist of the comment to me, was do not put much faith that a political visit will equal business opportunity. I do not think the article was in reference to Crystallex needing to do political junkets to VZ, but that just because Chavez is visiting China and courting them with investment opportunities, does not mean that China will sign up. Political agendas and Business agendas don't always run parralel.

Posted by: dlmetzer [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 3:04 PM [link]

dlmetzer and ableape,

The fact is that recently there has been surge in reader comment that adds little value, and worse, and consequently I have received a lot of direct mail from long-time readers who are asking that I cut off the comment sections.

When readers make comment, it is their personal comment, but it is also a reflection on me. Fifteen percent of the readers are domiciled outside North America, and many of these people are really offended when comments are made about their culture, and so forth.

I regret occasionally doing this myself. The problem usually comes down to not thinking it through, or just reacting in a way our biases show. Sometimes those biases are misguided.

In any case, I have to make a change here because it is taking too much of my time monitoring, managing, and explaining reader comment. I will make a decision soon.

If I have misinterpreted somebody's remarks, I apologize.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 4:17 PM [link]

Bill,
Thanks for replying, I understand your position.
I apologize if I have attributed to muddying the waters. It was not my intention to turn this into a Yahoo MB.
My main concern is Crystallex and the permit. Very interesting closing action the past 2 days.

Posted by: dlmetzer [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 25, 2006 6:08 PM [link]