Aurelian really looks interesting long term but watch for what could be a short-term 'gotcha' as reported by Cannacord Adams, "Aurelian completed a $20 million (7.27 million shares at $2.75 per common share) private placement financing in early Q2/06. Stock from this issue will become free-trading on Monday, August 28. It may be a dumb question to ask but will many investors be willing to take profit on a position that has increased eight fold since March?"

Would CCJ be the big winner if nuc power becomes an issue?

Taking a look at a couple of economic clues:

We saw a horrible housing report this morning. (Even Newport Beach had record foreclosures) I won't repeat the report here as you've probably already read.

Credit Suisse First Boston issued this report recently..."The portion of adjustable-rate mortgages that were at least 90 days past due has climbed 140% this year. And, according to a UBS study: About $137.5 billion face resets this year and about $524 billion face resets over the next four years." Ominous.

Employment is worse than reported.
Re: BLS "ghost jobs" from Dr. Richebacher newsletter: "Over the three months April-June, the BLS reported the creation of 329,000 non-farm jobs. But this has come about with a stunning contribution of 657,000 from the net birth/ death model, accounting thus for about 200% of the total job creation. Without this adjustment, reported employment would have slumped. Please note that these net birth/death jobs would, if annualized, add up to more than 2.6 million new jobs."

Continuing Long: Miners and a weakening dollar

Another promising junior uranium company is Crosshair Exploration (CXX.V), which has exploration projects in Labrador. It's been featured several times on ROBTv in interviews with Peter Grandich and others.

There's a "media coverage" area on their website with links to a number of media reports, including the ROBTv spots.

No position, but watching closely.

back to the markets - it seems like it is being held up here. Almost all the charts i'm looking at today got an initial downward push after the 10am Existing Home Sales Report - but at about 11am or so the selling stopped and is holding up. Any thoughts?

Seamus,

Last time we had those reports, then it implied "lower rates", therefore stocks went skyrocketing.

Glad to see it right this time, but I take those reports with a huge grain of salt now. At least in August, I have learned it's all almost meaningless.

Who was it that said just look at the numbers? :-)

(Thanks Bill.)

More wisdom on market cycles....from Dan Fitzpatrick on RM.

"......Cycles are not magic, except to those who refuse to do the work to understand them. There are multiple dynamics that underpin each market cycle. By definition, market tendencies that define a cycle reappear...well, on a cyclical basis.

I share your belief that cycles like the Presidential Cycle shouldn't be the basis of investing strategies. After all, they are statistical cycles and not trading rules. But to just dismiss their relevance as I have seen so many times oer the last 5 years? Well, I think it's an oversight. Sentiment matters and it's discussed at great length on a regular basis -- but I certainly wouldn't base a trading strategy solely on sentiment.

"Sell in May and Go Away" is a very well-known seasonal cycle. But that gets dismissed each and every year as pundits continue to point to the occasional summer rally as a basis for dismissing an undeniable statistical reality. What's the basis for the seasonal tendencies of the market? I'd start with summer vacation--not summer "school" vacation. It takes volume to push prices higher (yes, there are exceptions to every postulate, including this one). But when all the buying pressure goes to Disneyland (and the vast majority of market participants are "long only"), uptrends typically take a hiatus. Personally, I'll attribute the seasonal cycle to surfing. I'm out there more when I can wear sunblock rather than a wetsuit. I trade less...because there is less to do. I suspect that even the most casual observer (read: simpleton) now wishes that he had sold in May and went away, even if he didn't know why he was doing it.

It's all grist for the mill, and it's good to see something that's a bit out of the norm discussed rather than tacitly dismissed."

ursus

Main long theme is a weakening dollar (despite a few interventions by the Fed)and a move up for gold.

Equities may skyrocket until there is recognition the slowdown may be worse than anticpated--recession?

For the short term, agreed, looking at the numbers.

Out for the rest of the day. Good luck!

I think if one thinks of "cycles" as "a reversion to the mean" (which is how I think of them), the idea of cycles makes more sense.

mtzion (and others)

Sorry for changing threads, but the other one had gone a little too long...

Regarding the put options, I tracked them today around 2:30PM and compared them with yesterday's close and the underlying index movement. I follow DIA, QQQQ, and IWM. Below is what I saw. Biggest bang for the buck seems indeed to be at just out of the money. I think it should work against you the other way around.

Once they work your way, how do you decide to move out of them?

If you buy these puts and they start moving against you, how soon do you close them?

I am just learning and observing what others do.

Finally, is there a good tool to monitor several of these in real-time?

Thx.

SEPTEMBER PUTS:

IWM Yesterday close = 70.41 -> 2:30PM ASK=69.33 Change=-1.53%

SEP68 0.75 -> 1.05 +40%
SEP69 0.95 -> 1.40 +58%
SEP70 1.30 -> 1.80 +38%
SEP71 1.75 -> 2.40 +37%
SEP72 2.95 -> 3.50 +18%

DIA 113.29 -> 112.76 -0.47%

SEP108 0.20 -> 0.25 +25%
SEP110 0.35 -> 0.50 +42%
SEP112 0.70 -> 0.95 +36%
SEP113 1.05 -> 1.30 +23%
SEP114 1.45 -> 1.80 +17%

QQQQ 38.43 -> 38.00 -1.1%
SEP36 0.15 -> 0.15 0%
SEP37 0.25 -> 0.35 +40%
SEP38 0.45 -> 0.70 +55%
SEP39 0.95 -> 1.25 +32%
SEP40 5.40 -> 6.00 +23%

NOVEMBER PUTS:

IWM

NOV68 2.05 -> 2.50 +22%
NOV69 2.40 -> 2.90 +21%
NOV70 2.75 -> 3.40 +24%
NOV71 3.20 -> 3.80 +19%
NOV72 3.70 -> 4.30 +16%

DIA
NOV108 1.10 -> 1.15 + 5%
NOV110 1.45 -> 1.60 +10%
NOV112 2.05 -> 2.20 + 7%
NOV113 2.35 -> 2.55 + 8%
NOV114 2.70 -> 3.00 +11%

QQQQ
NOV36 0.55 -> 0.70 +28%
NOV37 0.82 -> 0.95 +16%
NOV38 1.18 -> 1.30 +10%
NOV39 1.52 -> 1.80 +18%
NOV40 2.10 -> 2.40 +14%