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August 31, 2006
Goldcorp stays in Cara 100, Thurs., Aug. 31, 2006, 9:38 AM
Based on the combination of Goldcorp and Glamis, I will certainly be including Goldcorp in the Cara 100 along with Newmont and Barrick. The share price pullback here after the deal is an opportunity to buy.
There is not much to choose between these companies, but Goldcorp has now achieved a capitalization that will endear itself to more money managers. I think size will now put the stock onto the same level as Newmont and Barrick, and make it easier to finance take-overs of smaller precious metal resource companies.
I think Goldcorp's Ian Telfer will draw on those increased facilities to put more deals together, and Kevin McArthur, as CEO and senior operating manager, will whip them into shape.
I think the Telfer-McArthur team will work better together than the more internally political boardrooms of their peers. That's to be seen of course, but it is something I perceive will happen.
Goldcorp Inc [GICS 15, Cara 100]
(GG: Yahoo Finance file)
(GG: StockChart chart)
(GG: Investertech chart)
(GG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GG: ADVFN Financial Data)
Newmont Mining Corp [GICS 15, Cara 100]
(NEM: Yahoo Finance file)
(NEM: StockChart chart)
(NEM: Investertech chart)
(NEM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(NEM: ADVFN Financial Data)
Barrick Gold Corp [GICS 15, Cara 100]
(ABX: Yahoo Finance file)
(ABX: StockChart chart)
(ABX: Investertech chart)
(ABX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(ABX: ADVFN Financial Data)
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 31, 2006 09:38:03 AM | Category: Goldminer Producers
Discourse
Hi Bill-I concur with your long analysis on GG as the small market caps have probably detered some big money managers. IMHO, however, the chart pattern argues for lower prices short term probably to the 24 area as arb activity could put pressure on GG til the deal closes.
Posted by: optionoracle
at
August 31, 2006 10:30 AM [link]
My speculative stock has been KRY and I have wanted in on GG but not at the 52 wk high levels.
It seems that this pullback might be a good time to jump in but it does look like it may go to the $23 range short term.
Could I get some color from the community as to a good entry point? I am thinking of averaging down from $28-23.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
August 31, 2006 10:47 AM [link]
FWIW: I put my foot in @$28 for only a toe hold then will ride it down in increments of approx. $.50 'til' it bottoms or we take off to the $700 Skyway.
Posted by: C.Note
at
August 31, 2006 10:59 AM [link]
Reporting from the hinterlands, I found that a lot of posters on the Yahoo GG board are wearing sackcloth and ashes today. Some long-time holders feel that they got the short end of the stick with the WHT deal and that history is on a loop.
For those who appreciate historic irony, I googled up this article from Feb. 2005:
Posted by: number2son
at
August 31, 2006 11:29 AM [link]
Posted by: oratier
at
August 31, 2006 12:27 PM [link]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/29/AR2006082901543.html
Don't quite know what to make of the article. Pre-election politicking? Attempt to re-start the old anti-Washington, anti-civil servant propaganda machinery?
Posted by: oratier
at
August 31, 2006 12:31 PM [link]
I have KRY as well. GG is looking very good.
BTW, I would not be surprised if the large private placement investor in KRY is revealed as GG when the final permit arrives.
Posted by: rick s
at
August 31, 2006 12:33 PM [link]
Silver is on fire today.
Posted by: number2son
at
August 31, 2006 1:30 PM [link]
$27.65 it is. Good luck to everyone on their GG. I hope it finds a new bottom soon, or else I am sure many of us here will be averaging down.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
August 31, 2006 2:07 PM [link]
Am I reading too much into the charts, or has the gold price "separated" itself from the oil price in the last few days?
Posted by: rward
at
August 31, 2006 2:49 PM [link]
Here is the ex-CEO's comments about todays buyout...Is he just salty that his shares are worth less today? hmm
NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The ex-chairman of Goldcorp Inc. on Thursday criticized the gold miner's move to acquire Glamis Gold Ltd. , saying the company he ran for 19 years was paying too much in the $8.6 billion deal and hurting shareholders at the same time.
"From a shareholder perspective, this is a very expensive way for Ian to retire," Rob McEwen said of Ian Telfer, who succeeded him as chief executive officer of Vancouver-based Goldcorp.
"I am still a large shareholder and the stock is down $1.2 billion today," he told Reuters in a telephone interview. He holds a 3-percent stake in Goldcorp.
Stock in Reno, Nevada-based Glamis was up nearly 20 percent to $46.46 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange, but Goldcorp stock fell 8.5 percent to $27.87.
After the transaction, expected to close in November, current Goldcorp shareholders will own 60 percent of the new Goldcorp and current Glamis shareholders will own 40 percent.
McEwen, a Toronto financier who now runs a tiny gold explorer, U.S. Gold Inc. said that for that stake earnings would only increase 24 percent, cash flow would rise just 17 percent and there would only be a one-third increase in production.
"How is this creating value?" he asked in the interview. "It is typical of this industry to get bigger and better, but I want my share price to move up and not down."
He said the Glamis deal also put Goldcorp in the position of having to look for more development capital at a time when it is difficult to build new mines.
"He (Telfer) is overpaying for his assets and penalizing shareholders."
McEwen stepped down as chairman of Goldcorp in October when Barrick Gold Corp. announced its $9.2 billion takeover bid for Placer Dome. As a side deal to Barrick's hostile offer, Goldcorp said it would buy $1.35 billion of Placer assets.
As CEO, he had built Goldcorp into the hird-largest gold producer in North America, then handed the reins to Telfer, the head of Wheaton River Minerals Ltd., which merged with Goldcorp last year.
McEwen said he had focused on organic growth, avoiding debt, while Telfer had built Wheaton River through a series of acquisitions utilizing debt and acquiring properties.
Despite their differences, he said he had stepped aside as CEO to let Telfer grow the company.
"I thought the company had reached a stage of development where it needed new focus," McEwen said.
Goldcorp and Glamis will have a market capitalization of $21.3 billion and will produce upwards of 2.3 million ounces of gold a year, putting the combined firm behind world No. 1 producer Barrick and second biggest Newmont Mining Corp. .
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
August 31, 2006 2:53 PM [link]
I would say a break of 26.26 will lead to 24s, but that's if it breaks. GG looks good now as it's sitting right on top of its 200 day EMA.
Posted by: traderray
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August 31, 2006 4:00 PM [link]
Rob McEwon is one unhappy camper! He said that GG had overpaid, signalled his aim to challenge the deal, and opined that others might well bid for Glamis. He expected that GG's stock would continue to fall. Bill, what is your current feeling about this deal?

Stopped out SNDK @ 6.39% gain. End of saga.
Posted by: oratier
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August 31, 2006 9:59 AM [link]