We should be outraged, however when one fire gets stomped out another will erupt, it is our job in the meantime not to let them take it all.

I am learning that there are ways that we can navigate these treachorous waters and still do well. By staying abreast of political, social and macroeconmic trends we can make informed decisions that can do as well as those that manipulate man and markets.

Interestingly Donald Coxe who is mentioned in the prior thread to this via the link to the BMO report admits as well as you do Bill that peak oil is upon us and what you mention is just making a bad situation worse; damn the profiteers!

And there is Engdahl as well. He points out how the U.S. is working on it's full spectrum to the point of cornering the seed market and exploiting the entire Blue Jewel of this universe by spreading their terminator seed that cannot be used to grow cops year after the year.

If the government cannot out politic, out militarize, out manufacture, out economize or out bamboozle then they can just cut off the worlds food supply they opine. And look at the who has been involved Right, Left, Big Finance and one of the worlds largest drug cartels.

Outrageous!

As a friend of mine used to say SON OF A BUNNY!

Also hey what about that new listing on the TSX; NWG New West Gold. I acually worked for them at their Northumberland mine way back in 1987, they do have some Gold in the ground!

Steve

And whoops here is the link about that Alien seed
http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/GMO/Monsanto/monsanto.html

Every market anywhere sees a big increase in speculation when there is a big price move. This carries the move to excess. the excess encourages a supply response, over time supply response is recognized prices retreat and speculators flee. Time frames are different in markets based on speed of production increase. Grains respond in a season, miners or energy producers take longer. i don't see where a conspiracy is needed to explain any of this. The profit numbers are huge because the energy markets are so enormous. The otc stuff needs some regulatory scrutiny but the rest of it is just the same old game.

I'm shocked -- Shocked! -- to learn out there were speculators in the energy markets!

Re: "What has transpired in the past three years is I believe beyond all concern for American moral or social values, and that is the transference of blame from those who are guilty to those who are gullible. The American public has had it shoved down their throats that the bogeymen in the oil and gas markets have been, let's see, Shi'ites and Sunnis, Chavez and Nigerian rebels, Chinese and Russian authorities, and Big Oil, among others. This lie is despicable."

Bill...Bill...Bill,

Me Irish heart and eyes is smiling this morning me Lad.
Such Eloquence! Such Resolve! Such Commentary!

Re: "futures market,"

The lessons contained is this commentary is the primary reason I personally employee the KISS (keep it simple, stupid) principle in trading: I only trade equities because that's all my financial, technical and intellectual resources can handle.

Oil Futures, Metals, Currencies, Options, are just too complicated for my psyche (and the average traders', IMHO).

Backwardation??? Contango??? Say What!!!

Ok, GDP came in a little shy of expectations. I'm still waiting for bigger brains to analyze the data, but in the meantime gold and silver is going up.

Also, after the dust settled the FOMC minutes were kinda hawkish on inflation, so I don't see the cause for yesterday afternoon's rally. Caught me flatfooted and, when in doubt, don't make the trade.

Today should be "interesting".

For some reason this did not get mentioned in the WSJ.

Last week either Bill or another poster pointed out that the shares of Goldman-Sachs and some of the other big brokers were not being kept afloat like the other major equities. Perhaps this is the reason. WHy buy your stock now when you know it will go down on negative news/publicity soon.

I was drawn to Bill's WIR Section 40, XLF senior financial equities chart, and pondering as to why the group shows +30% 12 month change. The enormous fees associated with hedge fund shenanigans in the energy sector provide one answer. When the regulators decide to turn out the lights on this game the fees will disappear and the financials will go down. It seems that we have not only Peak Oil but Peak Financials. I wonder if insider selling in financials is prevelant at this point?

as the futures market are a zero-sum-game someone has lost "all the profits the GS/MS-traders have made" in taking the short side of their long future.

I think everyone is missing a point here again IMO.

No one cornered the market. It always IS cornered. It is controlled - it is not free - these players determine the prices - not the market - they ARE the market. They do the global planners bidding.

It WAS the central bankers & global planners who encouraged and abetted these hedge funds, GS, JP etc.. to pump up the prices of commodities - they wanted this to fight off deflation and fund the US's geopolitical forays.

In May the planners said - enough is enough. Things got out of control - the speculation they encouraged got out of control - 3rd world dictators stepped out of line - Russia was flexing its muscle - so they took all these commodities out in May.

How? By using the same players. So now they take commodity prices down- as low as they want to keep the US out of recession and the stock indexes afloat. Various stories will now appear to justify this.

So what is a trader to do?
I keep shorting the TSX, oil stocks, gold stocks on stregth and buying tech on weakness.

tradesman

I agree ICE should be regulated and positions established there should be included in the COT. I don't believe regulating ICE will have an effect on the prices of oil and gas. Although I wonder if the ETFs like USO and GLD can be used by speculators to hide their position size. Cheaters will always look for new ways to cheat.

In consideration of the situation in the Mid-East, I think speculators have been wise to bid up the price of energy and stockpile it, and the government has been tacitly approving the process of building up commercial supply cushions.

I believe the long-term positive trade-offs from higher energy prices offset the short-term negatives. Encouraging more exploration, developing the oil sands in Canada, encouraging more coal use and clean coal technology, making nuclear fission a topic of discussion again, and making consumers more concerned about fuel efficiency are all things that needed to be done but couldn't when prices were much lower.

Yes, some very big speculators have become even richer, but so have small-timers who have done well trading energy stocks from the long side.

P.S. - Love the blog.

tradesman - I think you hit the nail on the head, though I'm picky about buying tech on weakness..

Thank you Tradesman. Will they be able to keep doing this *if* volume picks up after Labour day?

At this point I am just wondering if volume will pick up siginificantly or not (?). All the big sellers seems to be out of the market already and will have little reason to come back in.

Ursus I'm asking myself the same question, the volume on a lot of these stocks is really quite questionable

- all the volume comes in at resistance not at support it seems

- a lot of these stocks just seem to be "trading up" - not being "bought up"

- I'm just short-term trading and even then very reluctant to hold things overnight.

With the holiday weekend coming you would think everyone would want to cash out.

You could be right also about sellers (at least short sellers) being forced out of the market - but I would expect more sellers to come in around NAZ 2224 - but I could be wrong - this "when oil goes lower buy tech" could run into Sept.

good luck....

tradesman

Telecom has had a good few weeks, check ALSK, CZN, among others. S RSIs went below 30 about 10 days-2 weeks ago and is now slowly turning around. Long S.

Bollinger bands tight around KRY awaiting VZ approval. Long KRY.

When any one person or group, from anywhere in the world, can trade U.S. energy futures on exchanges that do not have position limits on their contracts and require no Large Trader Reports, there is certainly potential for manipulation.

Two bills, one in the U.S. Senate, the other in the U.S. House of Representatives, have been introduced requiring increased "transparency and accountability" in the over-the-counter energy markets.

The bills can be tracked here:

House bill: http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d109:h.r.05248:

Senate bill: http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d109:s.02642:

As for the "supply and demand" of oil not being an issue over the last couple of years, all one has to do is to look at Exxon Mobil's balance sheet as of June, 2006 and ask yourself why they are just sitting on over $33 billion in cash?