« Aussie sunset, New York sunrise, Thurs., Aug. 24, 2006, 7:18 AM | Main | Data on New Homes looks ugly, Thurs., Aug. 24, 2006, 12:38 PM »

August 24, 2006

Correction noted on May 17 article, Thurs., Aug. 24, 2006, 11:22 AM

On May 17 2006 at precisely 6:55am ET I published an article based on what I saw as a market commentator (Martin Hennecke) on CNBC pushing on emotional hot buttons of the CNBC audience.

Here is the article.

First, I'd like the many market professionals who read me frequently, and who know my work, submit a comment to this particle blog item as to your impression and interpretation of that May 17 article.

Everyone who reads me knows that a week earlier I had called a long-cycle Bull top, and everyone has to say that in this May 17 blog, I was saying that the gold market had topped and would fall. I said Mr. Hennecke was stirring emotions of the gamblers, which I said I didn't like and that I hoped those traders would leave the market and return to the casino.

The prior Friday, gold bullion had hit the cycle high well over $700. I was concerned that students of the market would be caught up in the hype. Then on the Monday and Tuesday, the gold market had sold off marginally, but overnight there appeared to be a rally underway, which I did not want to see on the basis of hype.

So I concluded my article that day with the following words and chart that illustrated by concerns that gold was being hyped again:



"I hope for my sake that today's U.S. inflation data (CPI) is extremely high and that the Fed has to move in to stabilize markets by lifting the bond market and causing a sell-off in gold.

Why would I say that when I believe that market events are unfolding precisely in the manner Martin Hennecke opines, and that gold is headed to $1,000 or more? It's because I would like to see gamblers leave the market and go to a real casino. I'd like to see the art of speculation, which is not based on emotion, become grounded. I'd like to see traders use all the analysis needed to become successful over 10, 20 and 40 years, and that includes understanding fundamentals, quantitative, technical, macro-economic drivers.

Yes, the overnight market has pushed gold back almost to its price level of last Friday. But let's see where it is 24 hours from now. We've seen the market play on the emotions of those who are leaning toward the inflation-gold argument, and now I feel we are going to see the market play on the emotions of those who believe most strongly in financial assets.

As you can tell I don't like it when the market (in this case Hennecke) says that "the only certainty is crisis". And that's because, as a teacher, I lose the attention and focus of my class.

003o006.gif



Now here, as I like to say, is the Proof of Concept. It shows that gold had already topped as I feared. It shows that I was right about Mr. Hennecke.



002p009.gif


002p010.gif



Now to the reason I am writing this blog.

I received a legal letter this morning from:


Tom Sinchak
Director, Legal
Bridgewater Associates, Inc.
(203) 226-3030



002p011.gif

Anyone can see that I took care in that article to show (i) my respect for Bridgewater and (ii) my concern that Hennecke was playing on the Bridgewater objectivity and goodwill to further hype the market. In a word, I was surprised.

Now the truth comes out that Hennecke is not employed by Bridgewater Associates, Inc (Westport CT).

I am not one to misread a screen caption, but this is possible. If so, I owe Bridgewater Associates an apology. If not, that apology will come from CNBC. I'll let you know.

In any event, I did write positively about Bridgewater Associates as everyone can see. I also will now correct the May 17 blog article.

As you know, I'm not ever trying to mislead people. In fact, quite the opposite.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 24, 2006 11:22:57 AM | Category: Cara re: Cara

Discourse

Wonder why it took so long to bring this to your attention Bill???

Me thinks there's something afoooot at CNBC.

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 24, 2006 11:56 AM [link]

Bill,

I thought your May 17th post was balanced and objective. As for the misunderstanding about the Bridgewater Associate, it seems to me a really honest mistake. I hope they think so too (the letter seems to suggest that).

Also, you know I always thought highly about your blog. As much as I like to see your posting, please take care of yourself, even if it means that you need to take a rest and post less. As Chinese always say that health is the most important wealth people have. Good luck and all the best wishes!

Posted by: yc32 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 24, 2006 12:28 PM [link]

I agree with yc32. You ALWAYS go the extra mile on ethics and responsibility. Don't let this get to you, and please DO look after your health. It IS "the most important wealth".

If the treadmill gets boring, try fast walking or biking (if you have a safe location away from traffic). Also, day-in&day-out diet can really help vs. high-blood pressure and weight.

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 24, 2006 1:15 PM [link]

Bill,

It seems obvious to me that if CNBC had got it right about the correct employer of Mr. Hennecke you would have been the recipient of the letter rather than being made a reference point. You owe no one an apology when what we have is another case of CNBC misinformation and sloppy journalism, particularly since they had several previous interview items with Bridgewater Ltd. What seems apparent is Bridgewater Associates' awareness of the tremendous influence your blog has, and the importance of CNBC getting it right so that readers such as yours are getting the facts. Keep it going!

Posted by: TerryC [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 24, 2006 4:23 PM [link]

Another reason to have CNBC interviews archived!

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 24, 2006 10:45 PM [link]