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August 22, 2006
China GDP growth not stopped by rising rates, Tues., Aug. 22, 2006, 11:18 AM
Now that the engine of global economic growth (ie, the USA) has been sputtering, traders are looking to China for answers. The info I present here might help.
Here is a chart of nominal GDP growth in the People's Republic of China from 1952 to 2005. The world has seen nothing like it.

Now here is the illuminating Econoday discussion of Bank of China rates. Look at the following: (i) at how relatively high these bank rates are (and have been) compared to the U.S., (ii) at China's powerful GDP growth from 1988 through 1998 when the PBOC bank rate was sent shooting up to a level from 8.5 to 12 pct, and (iii) China's GDP growth during the period of the terrible U.S. Bear market of 2000-2002.

As long as capital owners and managers can find economic opportunity in China " and they will for the next twenty years or more " they will invest in China.
They will invest in ports, shipbuilders, auto manufacturers, hotels, and so on.
And as long as unemployment in China remains at about 10 pct nationally (about 4 pct in the cities and ~20 pct in the rural areas), two important things will happen as rural unemployed people flock to the big cities: (i) wage inflation will be kept down, and (ii) demand for homes, office buildings, and infrastructure will remain very high.
The big picture situation today in China is somewhat like North America 50 to 100 or more years ago as the population moved to the cities seeking employment and a better quality of life. The economic growth at that time in North America was relentless, as it will be in China for many years.
Remember, during the time in America when huge populations flocked to the cities, there were relatively few people living in rural areas. To compensate, the U.S. and Canada appealed to Europe, Africa and then the Caribbean for immigration sources. China has no such problem, and the absolute size of the Chinese population that will make that move to find a better life in the city is enormous.
The story-tellers, of course, will change their pitch in order to push and pull on the emotions of traders, but the China growth story will not go away. China, not America, is now THE story.
I remember almost 50 years ago when a secondary school geography teacher first told the class about how big and economically powerful China would become. It took a long time to get started, but then the story finally happened. The process today is irreversible.
Traders know it, which is why capital continues to move into that country getting satisfactory returns, and the authorities can keep the bank rates, and hence the savings rates, so high.
"s_a_m_g_u" has started to add to the reader's comments, and knowing he/she is participating from the People's Republic of China, I encourage that dialogue. We are all here to learn and in addition to "Lessons of the Chinese Masters", which I keep close at hand, we can learn a lot from independent, individual Chinese traders who share their perspective.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 22, 2006 11:18:06 AM | Category: China , Economics
Discourse
stockoptions said:
"Forget Iraq, forget bombs on airplanes, forget Afghanistan, for Hezbollah. Iran is the crown
jewel in the satanic heart of world wide terrorism. Wipe out Iran, everything gets better."
This kind of talk is no different than what the Iranian "supreme" leader said about "wiping out" Israel.
I think we need less of this kind of attitude in the world - this kind of talk is exactly what the power elites want - they program this hatred into the masses - it then sustains their power.
I say the world and the capital markets should be ours not theirs. The world should not be a playfield for the elites to engage in power struggles creating needless physical and financial suffering for the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------
Sorry to offend, my words were too strident. I do apologize. It's not clear to me how 20 million Jews in the world constitute "the masses" when there are over 6 billion people currently alive.
It's also not clear to me how 6 million Israeli Jews struggling for their very existence in a sea of 500 million Arabs constitutes a "power stuggle." We see it as a 2000 year struggle to survive.
I will say as an American and as a Jew that the rhetoric coming out of Iran and the arms flowing to Hezbollah from Iran and Iran's determination to develop nuclear technology has got Israel's full and complete attention, as well as President Bush's.
I believe that neither the US nor Israel will stand idly by as Iran develops nuclear weapons. I do believe that if Iran does not back off within 6 months that the US or Israel or both will launch a pre-emptive strike at Iran's nuclear facilities. After that, all bets are off.
Israel will certainly not wait to be exterminated by Iran in Holocaust Part II. If she has to, I believe Israel will use nuclear weapons against Iran. In previous wars US spy satellites have picked up the radioactive signatures of nuclear weapons in Israel ready for deployment.
I take it this blog is along the lines of "can't we all get along." That's certainly the ideal. But the venomous rhetoric coming out of Iran and Hezbollah is alarming.
If this blog is about connecting the dots, connect this: American occupation of IRAQ, American occupation of Afghanistan, the former the direct western neighbor of Iran, the latter the direct eastern neighbor of Iran. Does the phrase "pincer movement" ring a bell?
I'm not saying I want this to happen, I am saying it IS happening. You may want to factor it into your market analysis and trading over the coming months as I anticipate this coming to a head.
Posted by: stocksoptions
at
August 23, 2006 12:13 AM [link]

For a slightly different take on China's current success (and an explanation for GM's huge problems), here's an excellent (if very long) article from the New Yorker:
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060828fa_fact
Regards
Posted by: just_observing
at
August 22, 2006 3:21 PM [link]