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August 14, 2006

Bristol Myers (BMY) under review, Mon., Aug. 14, 2006, 1:38 PM

Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) has endured an unbelievably bad three years in the market as well as operationally. In fact this is one of the few stocks that completely missed the 2002-2006 Bull market. I'm wondering why I left the company in the Cara 100.

This is a stock that TeamCara is going to have to review. As soon as I automate the protocols, I intend to form a Team BMY, and get to the skinny on this once terrific company.

Here are two Wall Street research reports on Bristol-Myers. The one by Bear Stearns is dated August 8. The other one, by Prudential Equity Group is dated July 28.

Download Bear Stearns report on BMY
Download Prudential report on BMY

Bear Stearns has a Peer Perform (Neutral) rating whereas Pru has Underweighted BMY for about three years, with no upgrades in the interim. So Pru has wisely advised to avoid this one.

But the prices are about as low as they have been for anytime since 1996. In fact, they are much, much lower than almost any purchase of stock since then.

Ten years is a long time. So I think it's appropriate to do a review. More on that later.

As for me, when the Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI 7 all fall below 30, and the short-term 3-day Moving Average subsequently moves up through the 15-day MA, I'll buy a little " maybe for a trade and maybe for a longer-term hold. Had the day opened badly, I may have done it today on the assumption that the Monthly RSI 7 will drop below 30 in a couple days.

But that's a trade. To hold any stock for a long time in the middle of a Bear market, I need to have a lot of comfort in my analysis. And that means I have to do the analysis.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. [GICS 35, Cara 100]
(BMY: Yahoo Finance file)
(BMY: StockChart chart)
(BMY: Investertech chart)
(BMY: ADVFN Financial Data)(BMY: ADVFN Financial Data)

Daily data chart for Bristol-Myers Squibb:
002r014.gif

Weekly data chart for Bristol-Myers Squibb:
002r015.gif

Monthly data chart for Bristol-Myers Squibb:
002r016.gif


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 14, 2006 01:38:34 PM | Category: 35 Health Care , Cara Global 100 Best Companies

Discourse

Bill,

Isn't BMY potentially on the hook for millions due to the Vioxx lawsuits?

Posted by: smess [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 2:55 PM [link]

Smess, that's Merck.

Posted by: alan [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 3:04 PM [link]

Whoops, so much for spouting from memory...my apologies, lol. Thanks for mentioning.

Posted by: smess [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 3:23 PM [link]

Over ten years, BMY is the only one of Media General's 18 "major drug makers" whose stock price lost ground.

By comparison, MRK is up 25% and PFE 40%. JNJ has increased 140%, and AZN 165%.

Not a great showing by any of them, but BMY seems the worst of the worst. I wonder why!

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 4:22 PM [link]

My memory on this one is that they had some huge money making drugs coming off patent soon and there was not much if anything in the pipeline.

Haven't looked at it lately and will be interested in what the team sees.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 14, 2006 4:24 PM [link]

Bill - FYI, here's a blog entry on BMY from "the 10Q detective". The info sounds relevant, he sounds smart, but I can't vouch for either:

http://10qdetective.blogspot.com/2006/08/bristol-myers-squibb-excedrin-headache.html

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 15, 2006 5:50 PM [link]